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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of southern New England, the Southwest into West Texas, and from Georgia to the South Atlantic coast this afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... A few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across CT into Long Island Sound, in the wake of earlier morning convection. Wind profiles (as noted in VWPs from KOKX and KBOX) continue to be somewhat favorable for organized convection, and locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado remain possible through the remainder of the afternoon and potentially into the early evening. The Marginal Risk has been trimmed slightly from the west, but otherwise maintained across parts of southern New England. See MCD 2146 for more information. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risks across parts of the Southeast and Southwest/West TX remain unchanged. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 09/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023/ ...Southern New England... A cluster of generally weakening thunderstorms is currently ongoing across the region and could still pose some continued strong/localized severe storm risk. For additional short-term information (through early afternoon), see Mesoscale Discussion 2145. Weak lapse rates and modest overall heating/buoyancy, along with marginal low-level shear, may keep the overall severe risk low. While uncertain, various short-term guidance is insistent that additional redevelopment could occur this afternoon in the wake of this morning's thunderstorm cluster, with renewed development potentially across southwest New England in proximity to the weak surface wave and eastward-advancing front. Should this happen, some severe risk could redevelop as diurnal destabilization occurs across a somewhat broader part of southern New England this afternoon. ...Arizona/New Mexico to West Texas... A low-amplitude mid-level disturbance over the southern Rockies will continue eastward toward west/north Texas through tonight. Conditionally, the most favorable area for a few supercells should be over the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos of West Texas. Despite near moist-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates, including a lower hail risk than typical supercell situations, favorable speed shear will exist above 700 mb to support an elongated mid to upper hodograph. Nevertheless, timing of large-scale ascent attendant to the impulse appears to be early relative to peak heating, and boundary-layer warming will be the key driver to the degree of instability today. Accordingly, will continue to maintain a broad corridor of relatively low severe probabilities at this time, while still acknowledging some potential for storm clustering across west/southwest Texas later this afternoon/evening that could semi-focus a wind-related severe risk. Otherwise, isolated, marginal severe hail/wind will be possible from late afternoon to mid-evening over the southeast part of Arizona and southwest into east-central New Mexico. ...South Atlantic coast... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along the coastal sea breeze and across the Savannah Valley in association with a remnant MCV. While 0-3 km winds will be light, 20-25 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies could support loose multicell clustering with locally strong gusts from 45-60 mph, with a peak threat in the late afternoon. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Cascades and northern Central valley of CA. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns over much of the CONUS are low. ..Lyons.. 09/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Plains/international border while a cold front surges southward across eastern Montana into North Dakota tomorrow/Thursday. Behind this cold front, 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 25-35 percent RH during the afternoon hours. Since RH and fuel receptiveness will be marginally supportive of widespread wildfire potential, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

374
ABPZ20 KNHC 131746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula are showing some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next
couple of days or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By the weekend, upper-level winds are
forecast to become less favorable for additional development while
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Crops in southwest Wisconsin were stunted or dying as the area endured drought. In the Driftless Region, crops were being harvested early. Corn silage was being chopped, although that does not usually occur until the latter part of September or early October. Yields will be lower this year. WXOW-TV ABC 19 LaCrosse (La Crosse, Wis.), Sept 12, 2023

A declaration of local disaster due to the extreme drought and wildfires was issued by a Guadalupe County judge last week. This week, the county upheld the declaration and extended it through next month. Consequences for violating the burn ban have doubled so that violators may be fined up to $1,000 or be jailed for up to 180 days. Seguin Today.com (Texas), Sept 13, 2023

A Warren County cattle producer began providing feed at the end of July because there was nothing growing for the livestock to eat, apart from weeds. He got just one good cutting of hay and purchased additional hay bales from local farmers. The 300 cattle were rotated among pastures, and 30 to 40 head may be sold before the end of the year. Conditions were so dry that a spark could ignite a fire that would consume the farm. They were praying for rain. Northern Virginia Daily (Strasburg, Va.), Sept 12, 2023

Intense heat and drought in Texas have insects and rodents seeking food and water in people’s homes. AgriLife Extension entomologists and integrated pest management specialists in the Texas A&M Department of Entomology have seen an increase in reports of ants, fleas, ticks, mosquitoes and a variety of other pests. Texas A&M Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 13, 2023

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 12 22:32:02 UTC 2023.

More cases of valley fever, a respiratory tract infection caused by a fungus, have been found in San Mateo County lately. “The switch between dry conditions during a drought and rainy winters following a drought creates the right conditions for the fungus to thrive,” read the county’s Communicable Diseases Quarterly Report for the first quarter of 2023. San Mateo Daily Journal (Calif.), Sept 9, 2023

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z In the wake of earlier troughing, prominent mid-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Pacific Northwest through much of the extended forecast period. Beneath the ridge, dry and warm conditions are expected, albeit with weaker winds. To the east, persistent troughing and cooler than average temperatures are forecast for much of the central and eastern CONUS. Given the lack of overlap of strong winds with dry surface conditions, fire-weather concerns will be limited to localized areas. ...Northwest... Dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern OR and northern CA D3/Thur as the upper ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. Northerly flow of 10-20 mph and RH below 30% are possible through the afternoon. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions may overlap areas of dry fuels and ongoing fires, supporting locally elevated fire-weather concerns. However, widespread fire-weather conditions appear unlikely as gradient winds are forecast to weaken quickly into the evening. Through the remainder of the week and first part of next weekend, the building upper ridge will support continued warming and drying over much of the Pacific Northwest. A thermally induced surface pressure trough may support occasional gusty winds in proximity to the low RH, but the lack of stronger synoptic winds will keep fire-weather concerns localized. Through the weekend and end of the forecast period, a series of upper-level troughs will approach the West Coast. Broad ascent ahead of these systems may support isolated thunderstorms D5/D6 Sat/Sun across parts of far southern OR into northern CA. Exact storm coverage is highly uncertain given model timing differences. However, dry sub-cloud layers and modest PWAT values below 1 inch may support some risk for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z In the wake of earlier troughing, prominent mid-level ridging is forecast to remain over the Pacific Northwest through much of the extended forecast period. Beneath the ridge, dry and warm conditions are expected, albeit with weaker winds. To the east, persistent troughing and cooler than average temperatures are forecast for much of the central and eastern CONUS. Given the lack of overlap of strong winds with dry surface conditions, fire-weather concerns will be limited to localized areas. ...Northwest... Dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern OR and northern CA D3/Thur as the upper ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. Northerly flow of 10-20 mph and RH below 30% are possible through the afternoon. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions may overlap areas of dry fuels and ongoing fires, supporting locally elevated fire-weather concerns. However, widespread fire-weather conditions appear unlikely as gradient winds are forecast to weaken quickly into the evening. Through the remainder of the week and first part of next weekend, the building upper ridge will support continued warming and drying over much of the Pacific Northwest. A thermally induced surface pressure trough may support occasional gusty winds in proximity to the low RH, but the lack of stronger synoptic winds will keep fire-weather concerns localized. Through the weekend and end of the forecast period, a series of upper-level troughs will approach the West Coast. Broad ascent ahead of these systems may support isolated thunderstorms D5/D6 Sat/Sun across parts of far southern OR into northern CA. Exact storm coverage is highly uncertain given model timing differences. However, dry sub-cloud layers and modest PWAT values below 1 inch may support some risk for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2141 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2141 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona and southern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122128Z - 122300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some uptick in severe potential may occur over the next few hours. Isolated bouts of severe hail/wind may accompany the strongest storms and a WW is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Storms near the AZ/NM/international border area have been percolating in intensity over the last couple of hours, with MRMS mosaic radar imagery showing an increase in 1 inch MESH tracks with some of the strongest storms. Recently, robust convective initiation has taken place in far western Pinal County, AZ, where slightly elongated hodographs and 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE support supercell structures capable of severe hail. A severe gust or two also cannot be ruled out with the stronger storms. Overall, the severe threat should be isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri.. 09/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 32921274 33661157 33930973 33380717 32890615 32430621 31990665 31810744 31560790 31270838 31340938 31361045 31541104 32111247 32921274 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... Breezy northwest winds are forecast to develop over portions of the southern OR Cascades into the far northern Central Valley of CA. While occasional 15-25 mph gusts are possible, surface conditions are not expected to be overly dry with RH values generally above 30%. Occasional lower RH values may overlap locally with breezy conditions through the afternoon, but the limited coverage should keep fire-weather concerns localized. Thus, confidence remains too low to include elevated probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Relatively zonal flow is expected across much of the central U.S. tomorrow/Wednesday. Nonetheless, some surface lee troughing is likely along the High Plains, which will encourage the northward transport of a moist low-level airmass. At the same time, more beneficial rainfall may occur across portions of the southern Plains (mainly Texas). As such, wildfire-spread concerns are relatively minimal, with no highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... Breezy northwest winds are forecast to develop over portions of the southern OR Cascades into the far northern Central Valley of CA. While occasional 15-25 mph gusts are possible, surface conditions are not expected to be overly dry with RH values generally above 30%. Occasional lower RH values may overlap locally with breezy conditions through the afternoon, but the limited coverage should keep fire-weather concerns localized. Thus, confidence remains too low to include elevated probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Relatively zonal flow is expected across much of the central U.S. tomorrow/Wednesday. Nonetheless, some surface lee troughing is likely along the High Plains, which will encourage the northward transport of a moist low-level airmass. At the same time, more beneficial rainfall may occur across portions of the southern Plains (mainly Texas). As such, wildfire-spread concerns are relatively minimal, with no highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon into tonight, across parts of the southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic States, south Georgia to central Florida, and southern Arizona to southwest New Mexico. ...20Z Update... Some minor adjustments have been made to the general thunderstorm lines, but no changes have been made to the severe probabilities. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 2140 regarding the short-term threat for northeast GA into parts of the Carolinas and southern VA. ..Dean.. 09/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023/ ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States... Broad height falls will occur regionally in advance of the upper trough centered near the Great Lakes/northern Ontario. Moderate differential diabatic heating will occur today ahead of a weak southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. This will aid the development of scattered thunderstorms through early/mid afternoon from the Tennessee Valley to the central Appalachians. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit overall buoyancy and updraft vigor, but at least weak buoyancy coupled with 25-35 kt effective bulk shear should support multicell clusters and an attendant threat for sporadic damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. While a spatial decrease in the severe threat is expected after sunset, some uptick in severe risk may occur tonight as greater mid-level height falls overspread richer low-level moisture over the Chesapeake and Delmarva regions. With weak surface low development expected, low-level mass response and low-level shear/SRH may be adequate for a few transient supercells. These supercells should generally remain weak, but could potentially pose a low-probability brief tornado threat aside from localized wind damage. ...Florida/southern Georgia... A minor mid-level trough over the north-central Gulf will slowly progress east and remain well offshore through the period. Downstream of this feature, 500-mb west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 kt will persist and support short-duration/transient storm organization. As surface temperatures warm into the upper 80s to low 90s, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along the sea breezes and collide inland. Ample buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will support vigorous downdrafts and sporadic wind gusts from 45-65 mph, along with the possibility of marginally severe hail from 0.75 to 1.25 inches. ...Southern Arizona/southwest New Mexico... A belt of confluent mid-level westerlies will yield a swath of 30-35 kt flow across the region, supporting potential for isolated severe thunderstorms from late afternoon through tonight. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest and timing/extent of large-scale ascent appears nebulous with multiple rounds of thunderstorm development from this morning through tonight. Although somewhat tempered by lingering early day clouds and precipitation, a plume of weak to moderate buoyancy should become established this afternoon south of the Mogollon Rim, with the strongest regional destabilization across parts of southwest into south-central Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms seem most likely during the late afternoon and evening within the buoyancy gradient and across the higher terrain. Sporadic occurrences of 50-60 mph wind gusts along with marginally severe hail around 1 inch will be possible through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon into tonight, across parts of the southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic States, south Georgia to central Florida, and southern Arizona to southwest New Mexico. ...20Z Update... Some minor adjustments have been made to the general thunderstorm lines, but no changes have been made to the severe probabilities. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 2140 regarding the short-term threat for northeast GA into parts of the Carolinas and southern VA. ..Dean.. 09/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023/ ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States... Broad height falls will occur regionally in advance of the upper trough centered near the Great Lakes/northern Ontario. Moderate differential diabatic heating will occur today ahead of a weak southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. This will aid the development of scattered thunderstorms through early/mid afternoon from the Tennessee Valley to the central Appalachians. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit overall buoyancy and updraft vigor, but at least weak buoyancy coupled with 25-35 kt effective bulk shear should support multicell clusters and an attendant threat for sporadic damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. While a spatial decrease in the severe threat is expected after sunset, some uptick in severe risk may occur tonight as greater mid-level height falls overspread richer low-level moisture over the Chesapeake and Delmarva regions. With weak surface low development expected, low-level mass response and low-level shear/SRH may be adequate for a few transient supercells. These supercells should generally remain weak, but could potentially pose a low-probability brief tornado threat aside from localized wind damage. ...Florida/southern Georgia... A minor mid-level trough over the north-central Gulf will slowly progress east and remain well offshore through the period. Downstream of this feature, 500-mb west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 kt will persist and support short-duration/transient storm organization. As surface temperatures warm into the upper 80s to low 90s, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along the sea breezes and collide inland. Ample buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will support vigorous downdrafts and sporadic wind gusts from 45-65 mph, along with the possibility of marginally severe hail from 0.75 to 1.25 inches. ...Southern Arizona/southwest New Mexico... A belt of confluent mid-level westerlies will yield a swath of 30-35 kt flow across the region, supporting potential for isolated severe thunderstorms from late afternoon through tonight. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest and timing/extent of large-scale ascent appears nebulous with multiple rounds of thunderstorm development from this morning through tonight. Although somewhat tempered by lingering early day clouds and precipitation, a plume of weak to moderate buoyancy should become established this afternoon south of the Mogollon Rim, with the strongest regional destabilization across parts of southwest into south-central Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms seem most likely during the late afternoon and evening within the buoyancy gradient and across the higher terrain. Sporadic occurrences of 50-60 mph wind gusts along with marginally severe hail around 1 inch will be possible through the period. Read more

Drought and low soil moisture continued to take a toll on crop conditions in Iowa and may lead some farmers to begin harvesting earlier than usual. Some producers were hauling water to livestock or were selling cattle. Some livestock were already being fed hay. Iowa Capital Dispatch (Des Moines), Sept 11, 2023

The hottest summer ever recorded by many Texas cities, combined with intense drought, has led to millions of dollars of damage to municipal pipes and the loss of large quantities of water. Numerous cities have asked residents to conserve water as crews work to stem the widespread leaks. “The intense heat and drop in annual rainfall have dried up the soil, causing a shift in water lines,” said a spokesperson for the city of Houston. “When the pipes shift, the pipe joints can break, causing water leaks.” Houston has been receiving 500 calls per week about water leaks, up from 300 this time last year, when drought was less intense. In San Antonio, the number of water main breaks averaged about 470 per month from January through June, and then leapt to 725 in July and 1,076 in August amid intense heat. Laredo, Austin, Midland and Wichita Falls have also had sharp increases in water main breaks. The Texas Tribune (Austin), Sept 8, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has increased today, but remains disorganized. Some
additional development of this system is expected during the next
few days as the system moves generally northwestward, and a tropical
depression could form later this week. The system is then forecast
to turn westward over the weekend, at which time further development
is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...COASTAL CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the southern High Plains, southern New England, and the Carolinas on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley toward New England on Wednesday. Multiple vorticity maxima will be embedded within the midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of this trough. At the surface, a cold front will move across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic into the southern Appalachians, with a weak frontal wave potentially moving from the Mid Atlantic into New England through the day. Farther west, a broad upper-level trough will remain in place across parts of the western/central CONUS, with one notable shortwave trough expected to move eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. ...Northern NJ/Southeast NY into southern New England... A band of convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period somewhere across southeast NY/northern NJ into western parts of southern New England, aided by low-level warm advection and midlevel vorticity maxima ejecting northeastward ahead of the primary upper trough. Instability will generally remain weak, but moderate deep-layer shear, favorable moisture, and some enhancement of low-level shear/SRH within the warm-advection regime may support transient rotating cells capable of locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado. The primary threat may reside with the initial cluster of convection as it moves eastward across southern New England, though some redevelopment will be possible its wake, depending on timing of early convection and extent of destabilization in its wake. ...Coastal Carolina vicinity... In advance of the large-scale trough to the north, one or more weak midlevel vorticity maxima may move across parts of the Carolinas Wednesday. These may aid in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development within a warm, moist, and moderately unstable environment during the afternoon. Modest westerly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 25-30 kt, sufficient for some storm organization, and a few semi-organized cells/clusters will be possible. A Marginal Risk has been added for parts of near-coastal SC and southern NC, where the best overlap of instability, shear, and storm coverage is currently anticipated. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the southern Rockies into the High Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening, as a midlevel shortwave trough traverses the region. Weak to moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a few organized cells/clusters capable of producing localized hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast AZ into southwest NM... Scattered thunderstorm development will again be possible across parts of southern AZ into southwest NM on Wednesday. Moisture/instability may be somewhat weaker than D1/Tuesday, though deep-layer shear will remain marginally sufficient for a few semi-organized storms. Depending on the extent of D1 convection across the region and its potential impact on D2 destabilization, severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 09/12/2023 Read more