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Some East Texas counties received small amounts of rainfall. Angelina County reportedly received as much as 4 inches in some parts over the last two weeks. The majority were still under severe drought stress. Ponds and creeks were shallow. Pastures and rangeland conditions were poor to very poor. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were very short. Jasper County reported wildfires were still occurring regularly. Producers scrambled to find hay or to sell cattle at the market. Market prices remained strong despite the increased numbers being sold. Livestock were in fair condition with continued supplemental feeding. Armyworms were reported in Harrison County. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 12, 2023 Drought conditions persisted across East Texas. Wildfires became a problem in many areas. Producers who once thought they had a good stock of hay have started supplemental feeding their livestock. Producers were culling herds and selling calves early due to poor pasture conditions and water shortage. Cattle markets remained steady overall. Cherokee County reported that the local market stayed strong despite the higher-than-normal numbers sold. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 Drought conditions persisted and worsened in East Texas. Hot, dry weather dried down moisture levels in the soil, and slowed or stopped hay production. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were very short to short. Pond and creek water levels were drastically lower. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to poor. Gregg County reported grass fires. Cattle prices remained strong and sale volumes were high. Producers were culling herds hard due to strong markets and drought conditions. Livestock were in fair to good condition with some supplemental feeding taking place. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 15, 2023 Drought conditions worsened in East Texas. Subsoil conditions were short, while topsoil conditions ranged from very short to short. High temperatures and no rain have caused everything to dry up. Burn bans were posted in several areas. Polk County reported an increase in wildfire activity. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair. Pond and creek water levels continued to drop. Livestock were in fair to good condition. Grasshopper damage was reported. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 1, 2023

Extremely dry conditions continued across the South Plains. Most dryland cotton was not expected to make a crop this year due to the lack of rainfall and extreme heat. Pumpkin harvest started a couple of weeks ago. Producers have been busy harvesting corn and sorghum silage over the past few weeks. Estimates for irrigated cotton harvest ranged from 1 bale to 2 1/2 bales per acre. Pasture grazing was depleted due to the lack of rainfall, and a few producers were supplemental feeding cattle. Cattle were reported to be in good condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 12, 2023 Rainfall may have occurred over the week in the South Plains region but was very sporadic. Most cotton fields hit cutout, 3.5 nodes above white flower, excluding those few where irrigation was high, as they could continued irrigation during the drought. Scouting of fields for insects was still needed. Crops were attacked by multiple pests such as Lygus and bollworms in cotton, Banks grass mites, corn earworms, mites in later corn fields and aphids were the primary issue in sorghum fields. A few acres were cut for silage, with more scheduled in the coming weeks. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 Dry conditions continued across the district with a few spotty showers. Temperatures were above 100 for multiple days with little relief in sight. Nighttime temperatures were not below 80 degrees, which was not allowing crops to rest between 100-degree daytime temperatures. Producers who planted dryland cotton early expected to make a crop, but those who planted later had not received enough rain needed for a good crop. Irrigation systems were going strong across the district. Irrigated cotton fields were in good to excellent condition. Corn was doing well. Pumpkin growers were treating insects as the plants started to grow fruit. Cattle were in good condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 15, 2023 South Plains farmers were irrigating to keep their crops progressing. The rains in the early summer were a great start to the growing season and helped many farmers keep their irrigation systems off until the past two weeks. Cotton was in good condition across much of the district and receiving necessary heat units with a lot of fields starting to square. Corn was in fair to good condition with a few farmers reporting problems with worms. Sorghum was also starting to head out. All dryland crops needed rain quickly. Temperatures were hot with no relief in sight and not much of a cool down at night to allow crops to recoup for daytime temperatures. Cattle were in good condition with the improved native grass grazing from the early summer rains. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 1, 2023

Hot and dry conditions prevailed over the Texas Panhandle. Some areas received a small amount of rainfall, but more was needed to help. Dryland cotton was nearing completion; acres had turned brown, and bolls had started to open. Irrigated cotton looked good, but with not enough rain and then too much rain, the crop was not expected to be the best in terms of grades or quality. Pasture grasses have gone dormant due to excessive heat and lack of moisture. Producers fed hay as quickly as possible, some taking it straight from the fields as soon as it was bailed. Some producers were concerned this would cause a hay shortage this winter. Producers were waiting to plant small grains due to the lack of moisture. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 12, 2023 Extreme hot and dry temperatures in the Texas Panhandle created heat and drought stress for all crops. Most crops were in the last quarter of crop production and development; therefore, most yields were set. The corn crop was persisting with pivots running. Much of the early corn was very close to harvest. Some of the fields with weak water were chopped on the edges to reduce field size. Livestock were in fair condition with supplemental feeding on a large scale. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 The Panhandle was very hot and dry for the week with temperatures reaching 100-plus degrees. Some areas received some rainfall that ranged from 0.5-1 inch. Most counties reported short to adequate soil moisture with some reports of very short moisture. Lightning from the storms caused a few wildfires. Producers were applying manure and compost. Silage harvest started with some fields being chopped early. Corn was doing well under irrigation, but sorghum was behind schedule. Haying and baling was going on with some producers baling weedy fields. Pastures and rangelands dried out quickly. Livestock were in good condition as producers began to feed hay along with supplements on a small scale. The overall condition of crops, pasture and rangeland was poor to fair. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 15, 2023 The Texas Panhandle was very hot and dry with temperatures reaching 100-plus degrees daily. The soil moisture profile was good but could decline rapidly without rain. Most counties reported short to adequate subsoil and topsoil moisture. The wheat harvest was mostly complete, and yields were very low. Tillage and spraying continued behind the harvest. Corn and sorghum were stressed due to the hot, dry, windy weather. Pastures and rangelands were starting to go dormant. Livestock were in good condition with supplemental feeding occurring on a small scale. The overall condition of crops, pastures and rangelands were fair to good. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 1, 2023

Far West Texas had another week of extremely hot conditions, with temperatures in the 100s. Scattered showers provided a few tenths of an inch in the northeastern and southwestern corners of the region. Cotton was maturing quickly, with some fields close to 100% open. A few areas had defoliants sprayed on them. Overall yields were expected to be well below average. Grain sorghum crops were expected to be a loss and not harvested. Fields were resting, with most kept in place to prevent wind erosion. Pastures were all brush, with no grass in sight. Hay was being fed to livestock regularly. Livestock were in poor to fair condition. Area beef cattle producers were in full swing of weaning/shipping season, but many were having trouble keeping livestock cool, hydrated and well-fed. Dove season started with large amounts of dove noted. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 12, 2023 Daytime temperatures in Far West Texas were in the low 90s, with overnight temperatures in the lower 70s. Isolated areas received 1.5-3 inches of rain. The heavy rain saturated the soil, causing producers to take a couple of days to get into the fields. Subsoil moisture had improved, varying from short to adequate. Although it was cooler this week, this season’s extreme heat had this cotton crop deteriorating. Bolls were beginning to open prematurely with immature seeds and lint inside. Other fields continued to shed bolls, some up to eight days old. All corn was harvested, and sorghum was nearly complete. Pecans were growing well, though the wind knocked many off the branches. Rainfall encouraged a small amount of reliance on rangelands and pastures. Livestock were in poor to fair condition. Ranchers continued to take their cattle to the sale barn. Livestock producers continued supplemental feeding for the animals they have kept. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 Temperatures were 104-110 degrees in the lower basin areas of Far West Texas. Widespread rainfall and cooler conditions were reported in the Davis Mountain area. Some areas received up to 2 inches of rainfall. The district was in desperate need of rain to improve rangeland and soil moisture conditions. Subsoil moisture remained short to adequate. Cotton conditions were declining rapidly due to extreme heat and drought. With most fields at peak water demand, growers could not provide enough water and plants were shedding quite a few squares and small bolls, and yield potential was decreasing rapidly. Heat stress and lack of rain set sorghum behind. Corn harvest was beginning, and yields were not as good as expected. Melon harvest continued but yields were starting to decline. Sunflowers and pumpkins were growing. Pastures were completely bare except for a few patches of broomweed. Livestock producers were supplementing with hay and feed, and cattle were losing some body condition. Livestock were eating mesquite beans. Some wildlife had moved into town to graze on homeowners’ lawns. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 15, 2023 Temperatures cooled somewhat in Far West Texas but were still in the upper 90s with nighttime temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s. Lower temperatures were beneficial to crops, but the lack of rain doomed all dryland acres. Conditions continued to worsen for more producers who were forced to make drastic decisions. Crop adjusters were looking at cotton to decide if growers should keep it or take it out. Irrigated cotton continued to grow very slowly. Corn was finished and drying down, and sorghum was getting close. Melon harvest continued and yields increased with each picking. Pastures were completely bare in some areas, supplemental feeding continued. Most livestock were sold off after two years of drought conditions. Doves were moving into the district. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 1, 2023

Small showers allowed West Central Texas temperatures to drop into the upper 90’s and 80’s. The forecast showed moderate chances of rain and cooler temperatures for the coming week. Some producers began field preparation for small grain planting, while others waited on rain so they could start plowing fields. Cotton crops and hay were in mostly poor to fair condition. Late-planted sorghum was struggling due to drought stress. Trees of all species were showing signs of drought/heat stress, with leaves browning and starting to fall. Some pecan producers were expecting pecan trees to struggle. Lake/stock tank water levels were dropping. Supplemental feeding of livestock increased due to the drought. Another cow herd sold out this week at a local auction barn. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 12, 2023 Hot and dry weather conditions persisted in West Central Texas. Although some parts of the district received rainfall over the weekend, the drought intensified and moved the district into exceptional drought. Farmers began field preparation to plant small grains. Pecan trees were showing drought stress and dropping nuts. Row crops were suffering from extreme heat and lack of moisture. Forage and hay crops were in poor condition with limited cutting and baling of hay. Ranchers continued supplemental feeding for the livestock they kept. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 Temperature highs were over 100 degrees daily in West Central Texas. Conditions remained very dry in most areas. Several fires were reported. Some areas received 0.5 to more than 1 inch of rainfall. Producers continued to prepare fields for wheat, but rain will be needed before planting. Some hay cutting and baling continued, but most production ended due to dry conditions. Rangeland and pasture conditions were poor and continued to worsen. Stock tanks were declining, and some were dry. Livestock were stressed by heat, and some cows were having difficulty calving in the intense heat. Most producers continued to feed livestock or sell them. Livestock body conditions were holding, and market prices were steady to higher with good demand reported. Row crops were struggling in the hot, dry conditions. Cotton fields were blooming, but plant growth was limited. Dryland and irrigated cotton fields were struggling, and yield projections were declining. Corn and sorghum harvests finished with mixed results on yields. Pecan orchards were suffering even where irrigation was available. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 15, 2023 Hot and dry conditions continued in West Central Texas with high temperatures around 100 degrees daily. No precipitation was reported, or in the forecast. Water levels in tanks and lakes were dropping. Severe drought conditions were giving way to extreme drought levels. Some producers were cutting and baling hay fields. Hay yields were lower this cutting, and more rain will be needed for another. Some other field cultivation was underway. Cotton fields were off to slow start but in mostly fair to good condition. Dryland cotton looked poor with some reports of fields lost to heat and drought. Livestock looked good, but some were losing body condition due to the intense heat. Most classes of cattle sold $3-$8 higher per hundredweight with good demand for heifers, pairs and bred cows. Most forages without irrigation were not growing. Insect problems continued, especially grasshoppers. Trees were dropping leaves. Corn harvest was expected to start soon. Most stock tanks were still in good shape, but pastures were in poor to fair condition and declining. Burn bans were put into effect for some counties. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 1, 2023

Multiple counties in Southeast Texas had scattered showers but were experiencing exceptional drought conditions. Rice was beginning to be cut after the small break due to the wet conditions during planting. Producers were hoping for one more hay cutting, but chances were looking slim. Cattle were brought to local auction barns as producers continued culling their herds due to the lack of grass/hay. Calf prices lowered slightly, but the market was still very favorable. Several tree species were hitting early dormancy due to the lack of rain; some showed drought stress. Grasshoppers continued increasing in numbers. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 12, 2023 Southeast Texas experienced scattered rainfall, but not enough to improve the conditions of rangelands and pastures. Hay production was very low in bales per acre. Many farmers were harvesting rice straw. Pecan trees began shedding nuts, and irrigated cotton was holding firm while dryland cotton was struggling. Madison County allowed producers to contact U.S. Department of Agriculture-Farm Service Agency offices to apply for assistance. Dry conditions continued to drive cattle to the local market. Producers continued supplemental feeding and hauling water to the animals they kept. Available surface water was at 75% as bayous and creeks that have never been dry were extremely low, with cracks in some areas. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 Temperatures were above 100 degrees daily in Southeast Texas, and the lack of rain continued to be a concern. Soil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Burn bans continued, and fire risks were high. Some grassfires were reported. Ponds were drying up quickly, and some producers started feeding hay. Hay production was at a standstill due to drought. Most producers were predicting a hay shortage for this fall/winter, and prices were increasing. Most producers were already feeding hay and cubes because of the lack of forage. High volumes of cattle were going to market, and prices were holding firm. Corn harvest continued with yields holding strong with some reports ranging from 140-180 bushels per acre. Irrigated cotton was healthy, but non-irrigated was showing signs of stress. Cotton harvest was expected to be a month later than usual in some areas. Rice harvest continued, but some producers worried ratoon crops may dry out before water is reapplied. Trees were dying due to drought conditions. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 15, 2023 Conditions in Southeast Texas were extremely dry and hot with temperatures over 100 degrees daily. Heat indexes continued to be around 110 degrees. One area reported some rainfall. Soil moisture levels were very short to adequate with most areas reporting very short to short conditions. No rain was in the forecast. Burn bans were being put into effect. Walnut caterpillars were prevalent. Corn and sorghum harvests continued, and cotton looked in fair to good condition. Rice harvest was underway and expected to ramp up. Some rice harvesting may be delayed based on planting dates. Pastures and rangelands needed rain, and forage availability was decreasing. Cattle prices were steady. Hay production continued but had slowed down. Bales were beginning to be moved and fed to livestock. Ponds and stock tank water levels were declining. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 1, 2023

Hot and dry conditions persisted in Southwest Texas, with daytime temperatures exceeding 100 degrees for most of the week. Some areas reported scattered showers for the weekend, from minimal measurable accumulations to about one-fifth of an inch of rain. The pecan yield was expected to be low during harvest, even among irrigated orchards. The few signs of green grass were shrinking; the only green grass left was in shaded areas of trees and structures. There was an estimated 3% loss of trees and shrubs in pastures, and many live oak trees turned brown. Water well companies were working tirelessly, lowering pumps in wells if possible. Pastures were browning quickly. Rangelands and pasture conditions had deteriorated to necessitate supplemental feeding. Cattle operations continued thinning herds to cut feed costs. Livestock and wildlife were still in good condition with supplemental feeding. Livestock markets looked surprisingly strong and were in mostly fair condition. Dove hunters were pleasantly surprised with the number of doves seen this week. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 12, 2023 Extreme heat conditions persisted in Southwest Texas for the week. Some areas reported spotty showers of rainfall, which was a relief from the record-breaking temperatures. Remnants of Tropical Storm Harold scattered between 1.25-2.5 inches throughout Kinney County. Cooler and more seasonal temperatures were experienced for a couple of days. Pastures were responding well to the recent rainfall. Sutton County reported spotty showers and less than half of an inch received. Production of most range plants stopped due to drought conditions, and rainfed ponds were mostly dried out. The expected pecan yield was low overall due to insufficient water supplementing irrigation. Caldwell County received no rain this week. Caldwell County and 24 other counties in Texas were declared to be under a state of emergency for severe drought. Cattle markets remained strong. Livestock were in fair condition. Supplemental feeding was necessary for most livestock producers. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 Record-breaking high temperatures and dry conditions continued in Southwest Texas. Over 100 acres were burned by a wildfire near Bastrop. Drought conditions and extreme heat have caused several major fires in Caldwell County as well. Hay production had mostly stopped, and supplemental feeding became more widespread. Sorghum harvest was complete, and corn harvest continued with average to above average yields reported. Irrigated cotton fields were doing well. Pastures continued to decline, and trees were shutting down and shedding leaves in the harsher conditions. Pastures were extremely dry, and producers were culling herds deeper and deeper. Livestock were in fair condition. Cattle, sheep and goat markets remained strong even with the lack or forage. Weaning should help ease some grazing pressure. Producers were supplementing both livestock and wildlife heavily. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 15, 2023 Daily temperatures were 100-plus degrees in Southwest Texas. The intense heat and lack of rain continued to negatively impact agriculture and rangelands. Grain sorghum and corn harvests began on the earlier planted fields, and most fields were mature. Corn harvest was nearing completion in some areas. Good-to-average sorghum yields were reported in some areas. Hay was available but expensive. Cotton was in rough shape. Warm-season pastures were going dormant. Rangeland and pastures continued to decline with extreme heat and dry conditions. Livestock and wildlife were starting to show stress. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 1, 2023

Georgetown remained largely in stage 2 water restrictions, while the western portion of Georgetown’s service area has been in Stage 3 restrictions since mid-July. Stillhouse Hollow Lake has fallen to its lowest capacity in 33 years. Lake Georgetown, the city’s other major reservoir, was nearing levels last seen during the 2011 drought. Georgetown receives surface water from lakes Georgetown, Stillhouse Hollow and Travis and groundwater from the Edwards Aquifer. The city also has an agreement to receive 3 million gallons of water per day from both Leander and Round Rock. The water for Georgetown’s western service area comes from Leander, which has not been able to provide the full amount of water, due to drought issues. Community Impact - Austin (Texas), Sept 14, 2023 The city of Georgetown implemented Stage 3 of its drought contingency plan due to high water use that is "nearing system treatment capacity." Residents were asked to stop watering their yards through Monday, at least, to allow the water system to recover. Stage 3 was anticipated to be in effect from July 14-17. KVUE News Online (Austin, Texas), July 14, 2023

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 13 22:28:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2148 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0522 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Areas affected...central to northern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132222Z - 140015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Instances of large hail will be possible for the next few hours as transient, but robust, thunderstorms continue to develop across central to northern Arizona. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Numerous robust, but short lived (30-60 minutes) thunderstorms continue to develop across central to northern AZ. Deep-layer flow over the region remains very weak (effective bulk shear values on the order of 15 knots), which is contributing to the short duration of most cells. However, MUCAPE over the region is near the 90th percentile for the Flagstaff, AZ region for mid-September. This, combined with mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, is likely supporting the robust, but transient updrafts noted in GOES IR and KFSX reflectivity imagery. Severe-hail signatures have been noted in MRMS products with these cells, suggesting that large hail is possible. This activity is largely being driven by a combination of weak low-level theta-e advection over the Mogollon Rim and lift along a composite outflow/weak dryline draped over the region. Both of these factors should continue to support thunderstorm development through sunset before the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Moore/Edwards.. 09/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGZ... LAT...LON 34151048 34381143 34551251 34791292 35231314 35721313 35881281 35791192 35591127 35301054 34981004 34690981 34510974 34250975 34121004 34151048 Read more

MD 2147 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Areas affected...The Big Bend region of Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132155Z - 140000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic severe hail and wind will be possible over the next couple of hours as thunderstorms continue to mature. However, this threat will remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, GOES IR imagery has shown steadily cooling cloud top temperatures associated with a multicell cluster south of the Fort Stockton, TX area. Although individual cells within the cluster have demonstrated limited longevity and organization so far, the overall trend suggests that the potential for severe wind/hail is increasing for downstream areas. This cluster is expected to continue propagating east/southeast along a low-level theta-e gradient where buoyancy is maximized (MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg). Furthermore, sufficient shear is present in the 0-5 km layer to support supercell structures, though the observed storm mode will likely continue to modulate this potential. While the severe threat is noted, these limitations will preclude the need for a watch. To the west, a cluster of storms across northern Mexico is undergoing similar intensification per GOES IR imagery, and should cross the TX/Mexico border within the next hour. These cells may intensify further as they move towards the regional buoyancy maximum, and could also pose a severe hail/wind threat along and just north of the Rio Grande. ..Moore/Edwards.. 09/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF... LAT...LON 28990292 28890323 29440441 29720466 30190487 30420495 30610487 30650469 30670442 30520386 30500352 30620314 30760265 30760242 30660213 30410183 29850168 29700174 29750210 29630259 28990292 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-level ridging will remain in place over the Northwest through the first part of the extended forecast period. While winds will be weak, warm and dry conditions beneath the ridge may promote localized fire-weather concerns. Into the weekend and early next week, prominent troughing will likely develop over the Northwest, ushering in cooler and wetter conditions for the remainder of the forecast period. Overall fire-weather concerns remain low given the poor overlap of dry and windy conditions with receptive fuels. ...Northwest... As the upper ridge solidifies and shifts eastward late this week and into the weekend, low-level northerly flow is forecast to weaken over much of southern OR and northern CA. At the same time, the ridge aloft will promote dry and warm surface conditions across much of the Pacific Northwest. The warm and dry surface conditions, combined with only modest mid-level stability, may support some plume-dominated fire activity into the first part of the weekend. The strong heating and terrain effects may also support the development of a low-level thermal pressure trough, occasionally enhancing local winds to 10-15 mph across parts of the Columbia Basin and southern OR. However, given the lack of stronger synoptic flow, confidence in sustained fire-weather conditions is low. As the upper ridge shifts eastward, a weak, upper low will meander toward the CA coast from the eastern Pacific. At the same time, a broad upper trough and stronger flow aloft are forecast to move onshore across western BC. Ascent and weak mid-level moisture transport ahead of the upper-level systems may support isolated showers and thunderstorms across parts of southern OR and northern CA D4/D5 Sat/Sun. Modest storm speeds and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer could support a risk for a few dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels through the weekend. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding storm coverage and mode given the relatively modest forcing for ascent. Storm coverage appears greatest D5/Sun, but may shift eastward toward areas of less receptive fuels. Confidence lessens considerably heading into next week as various model solutions exist with the BC trough shifting eastward. ...Northern Rockies... Late in the weekend and into early next week, stronger westerly flow may emerge from the Northwest troughing into parts of the northern Rockies/Plains. There remains considerable model difference in the medium range. The GFS and some ensemble members are much stronger and more amplified with the overall upper air pattern. With the more amplified solutions, a strong cold front accompanying the upper trough may promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of Columbia Basin, eastern MT and western ND early next week. It remains uncertain if this will occur, but it may favor some potential for elevated fire-weather conditions next week. ..Lyons.. 09/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Drought has affected the quantity and quality of produce able to be grown in Mississippi, and the meager selection of items available at farmers markets shows the impact. Yields were lower, and prices were higher. Winter feed is being eaten by cattle in September. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 13, 2023

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of southern New England, the Southwest into West Texas, and from Georgia to the South Atlantic coast this afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... A few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across CT into Long Island Sound, in the wake of earlier morning convection. Wind profiles (as noted in VWPs from KOKX and KBOX) continue to be somewhat favorable for organized convection, and locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado remain possible through the remainder of the afternoon and potentially into the early evening. The Marginal Risk has been trimmed slightly from the west, but otherwise maintained across parts of southern New England. See MCD 2146 for more information. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risks across parts of the Southeast and Southwest/West TX remain unchanged. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 09/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023/ ...Southern New England... A cluster of generally weakening thunderstorms is currently ongoing across the region and could still pose some continued strong/localized severe storm risk. For additional short-term information (through early afternoon), see Mesoscale Discussion 2145. Weak lapse rates and modest overall heating/buoyancy, along with marginal low-level shear, may keep the overall severe risk low. While uncertain, various short-term guidance is insistent that additional redevelopment could occur this afternoon in the wake of this morning's thunderstorm cluster, with renewed development potentially across southwest New England in proximity to the weak surface wave and eastward-advancing front. Should this happen, some severe risk could redevelop as diurnal destabilization occurs across a somewhat broader part of southern New England this afternoon. ...Arizona/New Mexico to West Texas... A low-amplitude mid-level disturbance over the southern Rockies will continue eastward toward west/north Texas through tonight. Conditionally, the most favorable area for a few supercells should be over the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos of West Texas. Despite near moist-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates, including a lower hail risk than typical supercell situations, favorable speed shear will exist above 700 mb to support an elongated mid to upper hodograph. Nevertheless, timing of large-scale ascent attendant to the impulse appears to be early relative to peak heating, and boundary-layer warming will be the key driver to the degree of instability today. Accordingly, will continue to maintain a broad corridor of relatively low severe probabilities at this time, while still acknowledging some potential for storm clustering across west/southwest Texas later this afternoon/evening that could semi-focus a wind-related severe risk. Otherwise, isolated, marginal severe hail/wind will be possible from late afternoon to mid-evening over the southeast part of Arizona and southwest into east-central New Mexico. ...South Atlantic coast... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along the coastal sea breeze and across the Savannah Valley in association with a remnant MCV. While 0-3 km winds will be light, 20-25 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies could support loose multicell clustering with locally strong gusts from 45-60 mph, with a peak threat in the late afternoon. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Cascades and northern Central valley of CA. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns over much of the CONUS are low. ..Lyons.. 09/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Plains/international border while a cold front surges southward across eastern Montana into North Dakota tomorrow/Thursday. Behind this cold front, 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 25-35 percent RH during the afternoon hours. Since RH and fuel receptiveness will be marginally supportive of widespread wildfire potential, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

374
ABPZ20 KNHC 131746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula are showing some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next
couple of days or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By the weekend, upper-level winds are
forecast to become less favorable for additional development while
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Crops in southwest Wisconsin were stunted or dying as the area endured drought. In the Driftless Region, crops were being harvested early. Corn silage was being chopped, although that does not usually occur until the latter part of September or early October. Yields will be lower this year. WXOW-TV ABC 19 LaCrosse (La Crosse, Wis.), Sept 12, 2023

A declaration of local disaster due to the extreme drought and wildfires was issued by a Guadalupe County judge last week. This week, the county upheld the declaration and extended it through next month. Consequences for violating the burn ban have doubled so that violators may be fined up to $1,000 or be jailed for up to 180 days. Seguin Today.com (Texas), Sept 13, 2023