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Residents in central Virginia were urged to conserve water by the Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority, Albemarle County Service Authority, and City of Charlottesville Utilities Department. 1070 WINA (Charlottesville, Va.), Sept 11, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Mandatory water restrictions took effect in Littlestown on Saturday, September 9, due to the lack of rain. Two of the Borough's "critical water sources" cannot be used, according to a Facebook post. Hanover Evening Sun (Pa.), Sept 11, 2023

Duluth area residents were asked to conserve water. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources recently recognized the Western Lake Superior watershed as being in a Drought Warning response phase. Duluth gets its municipal water from Lake Superior and supplies water to Hermantown, Proctor and Rice Lake. Northern News Now (Duluth, Minn.), Sept 8, 2023

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Generally quiescent fire-weather conditions are expected across the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Pacific Northwest troughing is forecast to remain in place through the first part of next week before mid-level ridging builds over the West. Cooler and breezy conditions will give way to warmer and drier weather, with generally poor overlap of critical fire-weather conditions and dry fuels expected across the western states. ...Northwest... Through the first part of next week, the persistent mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will remain in place, subtly enhancing west/southwest flow over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Ensemble forecasts suggest winds will likely be strongest D3/Tues into D4/Wed east of the Cascades and across the Snake River Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop with the passage of the main trough, though coverage is expected to remain low. While surface winds may occasionally reach 15 mph on a localized basis, widespread dry and windy conditions, supporting critical fire-weather concerns, are not expected. Fire-weather concerns shift toward warm, dry and unstable conditions late next week into the first part of next weekend, as a mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the eastern Pacific. With the main ridge axis offshore, weak offshore flow is possible over parts of the Cascades and West Coast. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible, but widespread coverage is not anticipated through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 09/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0680 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 680 SEVERE TSTM CO KS OK 102055Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Western Kansas Oklahoma Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop across the region through late afternoon and early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northeast of Lamar CO to 20 miles west of Guymon OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2023 20:38:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2023 21:36:27 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102036 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Jova has been devoid of deep convection for roughly 12 hours or so. The overall cloud pattern continues to become disheveled, as the system gradually spins down. Given that the system has not been producing convection for some time now, it no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Jova has degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, based on a recent scatterometer pass which is in agreement with the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Jova will continue to spin down for the next couple of days as it remains a remnant low, before opening up into a trough in about 72 h. No significant changes were made to the official forecast, which lies near the consensus intensity aids. Jova's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 5 kt, A gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest, with an increase in forward motion is forecast. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, near the model consensus. This is the last advisory on this system from the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 24.8N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1800Z 24.8N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 24.2N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 23.3N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z 22.3N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 102036 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 400 WTPZ21 KNHC 102035 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.8N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.2N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.3N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 127.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDERAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 400 WTPZ21 KNHC 102035 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.8N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.2N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.3N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 127.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDERAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 399 WTPZ31 KNHC 102035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY AS JOVA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 127.8W ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 127.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova has become a remnant low and will continue to gradually spin down. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 399 WTPZ31 KNHC 102035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY AS JOVA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 127.8W ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 127.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova has become a remnant low and will continue to gradually spin down. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY AS JOVA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 the center of Jova was located near 24.8, -127.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

MD 2133 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Areas affected...parts of northeastern New Mexico...southeastern Colorado...and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into southwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102013Z - 102245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development is possible through 5-6 PM CDT. This may include an isolated supercell or two, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. DISCUSSION...Low-level moistening is still ongoing within weak, but slowly deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. This is occurring beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer, and mid-level ridging to the north of a still fairly prominent subtropical high centered over the northwestern Mexican Plateau. In response to a series of short wave perturbations progressing around the periphery of the ridge in the near term, and, later, digging mid-level troughing across the northern Great Plains, mid-level heights are gradually beginning to fall. It appears that large-scale forcing for ascent will lead to increasing convective development spreading off the Front Range into the destabilizing boundary layer across and east of northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado by early this evening. Potential for the initiation of sustained thunderstorm development in advance of this activity, through late afternoon, remains more unclear. Based on objective analysis, mixed-layer CAPE remains fairly modest to the north of the Texas Panhandle vicinity, currently maximized around 1000 J/kg near the Colorado/Kansas border. However, shear for boundary-layer based thunderstorm development is sufficient for supercells beneath 30 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow (around 500 mb). Farther south, mixed-layer CAPE is more substantive, but shear remains weaker. With additional surface heating, it appears possible that weakening of lingering mid-level inhibition may become sufficient for at least widely scattered thunderstorm development. A zone of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, currently centered to the west/northwest of Garden City KS, may provide one potential focus for thunderstorm initiation during the next hour or two. As this activity acquires increasing inflow of destabilizing boundary-layer, it may rapidly intensify and organize, accompanied by increasing potential for severe hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado through 22-23Z. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 09/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37350277 38420253 38800174 38540046 38029982 36909958 33770062 34030194 34280395 35780381 37350277 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening across eastern Colorado and western Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main threats. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no changes have been made with the 20z update. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023/ ...Central High Plains southward to west Texas... A nearly zonal belt of moderately strong westerlies will exist from the central Rockies into the south-central Plains. Weak surface cyclogenesis will occur across southeast Colorado/far southwest Kansas as a cold front shifts southward across the south-central High Plains. A confined plume of modified Gulf air will be maintained across a portion of west Texas into southwest Kansas near and ahead of the front. Robust boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west/southwest of convection that persists across the region into midday, netting a corridor of moderate buoyancy mainly from northwest Texas into southwest Kansas later today. Afternoon thunderstorm development should be focused within three regimes. One being high-based storms emanating off the southern Rockies, two being along the front and buoyancy plume intersection in west Kansas, and three near the dryline/remnant outflow intersection in the Texas Panhandle. For the latter two, low-level veering of the wind profile with height beneath mid to upper level speed shear should favor at least a few discrete supercells with a primary threat of large hail. Upstream high-based activity should overtake slower-moving supercells and Kansas supercells will also be undercut from north to south by the accelerating cold front. This should yield broader cluster development towards early evening with some uptick in severe wind potential anticipated. ...Southern New England... A weak mid-level disturbance and warm/moist conveyor appears to be influencing a corridor of recently increased thunderstorms at late morning. A moist air mass and cloud breaks/additional heating will lead to modest destabilization, although updraft accelerations will be somewhat tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates. A few microbursts could occur, but overall severe potential should be tempered by the marginal thermodynamic environment and effective shear of 20-25 kt or less. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... Generally quiet fire-weather conditions are again expected over much of the western CONUS D2/Monday. Locally breezy winds will be possible over parts of the Columbia Gorge and lee of the Cascades coincident with periodic drier surface conditions. However, widespread dry and windy conditions are not expected over the West, precluding broader fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 09/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will continue to sweep across the southern Plains as a mid-level trough becomes situated over the central U.S. tomorrow/Monday. Cooler, moist conditions will usher in behind the cold front and will overspread much of the Plains states, limiting widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. Dry conditions should also persist across the western U.S. However, the lack of stronger surface winds should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101716
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jova, located a little over one thousand miles west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 2126 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2126 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming into far southwestern South Dakota and northwestern Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092219Z - 092345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing across portions of the northern High Plains. The strongest storms may produce a few bouts of severe hail or wind. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be needed if more widespread convective coverage becomes evident. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has occurred along the lee of the Rockies in eastern WY while multicells/transient supercells have become established across southwestern SD. The SD storms are expected to remain confined to the more favorable terrain, with a persistent but sparse severe wind/hail threat. However, the storms should intensify and move off of the higher terrain in WY as a weak mid-level impulse crests the synoptic ridge and ejects into the central High Plains. Boundary-layer moisture is meager. However, steep low and mid-level lapse rates are contributing to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which is adequate to support some severe wind/hail with supercells that can develop given elongated hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Nonetheless, discrete storms and their severe threat should be isolated, so convective trends are being closely monitored for greater storm coverage and the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 41550500 43390680 44680696 44980582 44820466 44300337 43710285 43220272 42680299 41760401 41550500 Read more