Aggregator

In an effort to get compliance with water restrictions since July 5, Travis County Water Control and Improvement District No. 17 shut off water to 232 water customers in the Steiner Ranch community. There were initially more than 1,900 water customers that were thought to be responsible for nearly 9 million gallons of water waste weekly. KUT News (Austin, Texas), Sept 14, 2023

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Ridging over the Pacific Northwest will slide eastward and begin to weaken as several Pacific troughs move onshore late this weekend into early next week. Strong mid-level flow will overspread the Cascades and northern Rockies with dry and breezy conditions likely through the weekend. Forecast certainty decreases quickly later in the period, as more significant troughing amplifies over the Northwest next week. While uncertain, fire-weather potential may increase later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... The upper-level ridge will begin to shift eastward and de-amplify heading into the weekend as a weak upper low approaches from the west. At the same time, a broader trough will approach portions of western BC, amplifying, and moving southeastward. Gusty west winds will increase through the weekend, potentially supporting dry and breezy conditions over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade gaps. Weak ascent and moisture advection ahead of the upper low and BC trough will also overspread parts of northern CA and southern OR as early as D3/Sat. Thunderstorm chances should slowly increase through the weekend with the greatest storm coverage likely late D4/Sun into early D5/Mon. A mixed mode of wet and dry storms is possible. Some lightning strikes may develop over dry fuels late this weekend into early next week. Medium-range model guidance has shown considerable uncertainty on the progression of the upper low and BC trough late in the weekend and into early next week. With some of the less progressive solutions, thunderstorm chances may linger over the Northwest as late as D6/Tues before a cold front shifts the remaining moisture eastward. Other solutions favor a quicker eastward progression of the cold front, while building strong surface high pressure east of the Cascades by mid week. Should this occur, strong easterly flow may develop over parts of WA, OR and northern CA with dry and windy conditions likely toward the coast. Uncertainty remains high, but the potential for strong offshore pressure gradients, collocated with dry surface conditions and receptive fuels, suggest critical fire-weather conditions are possible midweek next week and beyond. ...Northern Rockies... As the upper ridge begins to slide east and diminish this weekend, stronger westerly flow will move out of the Northwest into the northern Rockies/Plains D4/Sun into D5/Mon. Downslope winds of 15-20 mph are possible along with RH below 30%. While recent rainfall has tempered fuels somewhat, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts MT late in the weekend into early next week. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 14 21:59:01 UTC 2023.

MD 2149 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Areas affected...central and into southeastern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142051Z - 142245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage may increase a bit over the next 1 to 2 hours over central Texas, accompanied by risk for hail and/or strong/gusty winds. WW is not anticipated at this time, due to what appears likely to remain isolated coverage. DISCUSSION...Latest radar and visible satellite loops show isolated convection evolving across portions of central Texas, from the Edwards Plateau to the Hill Country region. Meanwhile, a composite outflow/sea-breeze boundary is evident in the visible satellite loop, surging westward from coastal convection. Within the zone delineated by the developing storms to the west, and the boundary moving inland, an axis of moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) is noted, on the southern/western side of the primary surface cold front. Given these factors, it would appear that storms will be sustained over the next few hours, with some additional development of new storms likely. With modest but sufficient shear (0-6km shear near 30 kt) indicated across the area to support organized/rotating storms (and weak supercell characteristics noted in stronger/ongoing storms), hail and gusty/damaging winds will be possible with the most intense updrafts. At this time, isolated storm coverage that is expected, would suggest that WW issuance may not be required. However, we will continue to monitor development, for signs of greater-than-anticipated coverage of stronger storms, which could warrant reconsideration of the need to consider a watch. ..Goss/Hart.. 09/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30669965 31339854 30989738 29849612 28899715 29419904 29800048 30669965 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NM TO PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm are possible along an axis from eastern New Mexico to the Texas Gulf Coast, mainly from late afternoon through this evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northeastward along the upper TX Gulf Coast, in advance of a strong storm cluster near and northeast of Houston. These storms have developed within an environment characterized by rich low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy, but also weak midlevel lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft. Within this regime, effective shear of 25-30 kt will support modestly organized storms with a threat of locally damaging gusts until storms reach the coast. Deepening cumulus and recent storm development is ongoing across parts of the TX Hill Country, in the vicinity of a weak surface low/trough. It remains possible that a supercell or two will evolve out of this developing convection and move southeastward later this afternoon into this evening. Weak midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit storm severity, but any sustained supercell could pose a threat of localized severe gusts and hail approaching severe limits. Additional strong to isolated severe storm development will be possible across parts of eastern NM later this afternoon into this evening. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 09/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023/ ...NM/TX... Current visible satellite imagery and surface analysis shows a boundary extending from southeast NM into central TX. A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present along and south of this boundary, along with mostly clear skies and steepening low level lapse rates. Large scale forcing is weak across this region, but most 12z CAM solutions show isolated thunderstorms developing near the boundary by late afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient mid/upper level westerly flow for organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes will be made to the currently valid outlook. Fire-weather concerns should remain localized with hot and dry conditions over parts of the Northwest. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low for Friday. Warm and very dry conditions (RH in the teens) are expected again Friday afternoon from northern CA and northwest NV through central OR and into southern WA. Locally breezy conditions will remain possible within the Cascades that may support localized elevated fire weather conditions; however, a weak signal in high-res ensemble guidance for sustained winds over 15 mph limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat and precludes highlights at this time. Locally dry/breezy conditions are also possible across the Dakotas within a post-frontal regime, but highlights are withheld due to a combination of low probability for elevated conditions and rain chances over the next 24 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Augusta County Board of Supervisors declared a state of drought warning at its Wednesday night meeting. Residents were asked to conserve water. The board also adopted a resolution asking the Virginia Farm Service Agency to designate the county a drought disaster area as farmers have been dealing with drought impacts for many months. Augusta County was conserving water by suspending hydrant flow testing and the unidirectional flushing program where hydrants are opened to flush accumulated mineral buildup from the lines. Fire-Rescue will reduce all non-emergency water usage and stop all non-certified fire and pump training where it requires the flow of water. The facilities maintenance department has suspended irrigation service at the Government Center, minimized fleet vehicle washing and proactively installed automatic faucets in most county facilities. Augusta Free Press (Waynesboro, Va.), Sept 14, 2023

Louisiana’s Christmas tree farms have been affected by the ongoing drought, but good management techniques have kept mature trees alive. Farms were reporting damage to about 10% of their crop. Most tree farms in Louisiana will be open for the holiday season. Leesville Leader (La.), Sept 14, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the southern High Plains eastward into central portions of Texas on Friday and Friday night. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Friday, as a cold front moves through the northern Plains into parts of MN/WI. Generally zonal mid/upper-level flow will persist across much of the southern CONUS on Friday, in advance of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving eastward near the Four Corners region. ...Southern High Plains into central TX... Isolated strong to potentially severe storms will be possible across a broad region from the southern High Plains into central TX on Friday, though confidence remains relatively low regarding the details and potential corridors of greater severe potential. Convection will likely be ongoing across parts of west-central/northwest TX Friday morning, though guidance varies regarding the location and intensity of any ongoing convection. If a more organized MCS can develop late in the D1/Thursday period, then it may spread southeastward across central TX during the day on Friday with an isolated severe-wind threat. However, with an already modest low-level jet expected to weaken through the day, confidence in this scenario remains low. Additional diurnal storm development will be possible Friday afternoon near an outflow-reinforced surface boundary that will likely be draped somewhere across central into southwest TX, and also across eastern NM within a favorably moist low-level flow regime in advance of the shortwave trough near the Four Corners region. Modest westerly midlevel flow will provide marginally sufficient effective shear for a few organized storms, including some potential for isolated supercells with initial more discrete development. Some severe hail threat will accompany the stronger discrete storms, especially from eastern NM into parts of the TX Panhandle/South Plains, where midlevel lapse rates will be steeper. With time, some southeastward-moving clusters may evolve and pose a risk of localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail spreading into parts of central and south TX during the evening/overnight. ...Eastern MN into northwest WI... In the wake of weak morning convection, isolated diurnal storm development will be possible along the cold front from eastern MN into northwest WI. While favorably cold temperatures aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates will spread over the region, limited low-level moisture and buoyancy may tend to limit storm coverage and intensity. If confidence increases in more robust storm development, then hail probabilities may eventually be needed for the region. ..Dean.. 09/14/2023 Read more

485
ABPZ20 KNHC 141728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula are gradually becoming better
organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the western portion of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Hundreds of thousands of purple martins fly into southeast Texas during the summer from late July to September. The birds typically consume flying insects before departing for South America, but drought reduced their food supply, limited the number of birds in the state and prompted the birds to leave earlier than usual. The Houston Audubon Society canceled their last purple martin watch party scheduled for Sept. 17. Beaumont Enterprise (Texas), Sept 14, 2023

Wild pollinator plants in Iowa were struggling amid the drought and had fewer blooms. Less nectar can mean fewer pollinators, such as bees, butterflies, beetles and Monarch butterflies. A single year of drought shouldn’t affect insect populations as most pollinators produce large amounts of larvae, but another year of drought might decrease populations. KCRG Online (Cedar Rapids, Iowa), Sept 13, 2023

Wisconsin apple orchards suffered due to drought this summer which has caused apples to drop from the trees early. Environmental stressors, like strong winds, temperature fluctuations and drought often cause apples to drop early. Drought reduced the income from the orchard. Spectrum News 1 (Milwaukee, Wis.), Sept 13, 2023

An orchard owner in Gays Mills in Crawford County began watering in May, due to the dry conditions, and irrigated for nearly the entire summer. They might typically water maybe four times a year, but not for months. Drought was hard on the field crops, but fruit growers say that the dry weather was good for many trees and vines. A pumpkin grower in Door County noted that the pumpkins were more affected by drought than his apples. The pumpkin vines did not progress much during the first half of the summer. A grape grower in Vernon County reported that the dry weather led to an unprecedented bumper crop. Some grape varieties were ready to be harvested several weeks early. The new vines planted this spring were hand-watered to keep them alive, which was a large labor demand. The dry weather kept pests and diseases to a minimum and yielded grapes of excellent quality. Wisconsin Public Radio (Madison), Sept 13, 2023

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has proposed that an Arizona snail, the Quitobaquito tryonia, be listed as an endangered species after drought and groundwater pumping from the construction of the border wall decreased numbers of the snail. Cronkite News (Phoenix, Ariz.), Sept 13, 2023

The dry spring and summer in Minnesota reduced mosquito numbers, but cases of West Nile Virus were still high as the kind of mosquitoes that transmit the virus thrive amid drought. KSTP-TV ABC 5 Minneapolis/St. Paul (Minneapolis, Minn.), Sept 13, 2023

Exceptional drought conditions continued in Central Texas with another week of record high temperatures, which were 10-15 degrees above normal in most areas. There were heavy rains throughout the district, which brought anywhere from a third of an inch to 3 inches, as well as cooler temperatures. Tanks that were not already dry continued to dry up. Pastures were extremely dry, and tree conditions declined. Producers feared hay wouldn’t make another crop this year. The cotton harvest neared completion, yielding around a third to a half bale per acre. Producers started thinking about planting oats for grazing but will have to wait for additional rainfall. Winter wheat planting was delayed until later in the fall to avoid as much of the first flush of Hessian flies as possible. Cattle prices remained good, along with sheep and goat prices. Livestock were being heavily supplemented. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 12, 2023 Drought conditions persisted in Central Texas with extremely hot and dry weather. Stock tank levels were steadily declining, major reservoirs drew down to critically low levels, and water restrictions became more widespread. Fire conditions persisted. A few localized, scattered showers dropped some rain but only helped lower daytime temperatures a few degrees. Heat continued to deteriorate forage, trees continued to burn, and woody brush turned yellow. The soil in pastures was cracking, and hay was being shipped in. Producers were unable to plow due to the low soil moisture. The cotton crop deteriorated near the point that additional rainfall will not help yields. Growers began seeking sources of winter cereals to plant when moisture conditions improve to establish grazing land this winter. Retailers expressed their expectations of seed shortages of both fall and winter rye and oats. Livestock producers switched supplemental feeding with little to no grazing left. Producers continued to sell and liquidate herds. The body condition scoring of cattle was thinning. The sale of steers dropped, cows were selling well, and the sale of heifers rose. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 Central Texas was in severe drought with persistent hot and dry weather conditions. Soil moisture levels were very short. There was zero significant rainfall. Temperatures remained over 100 degrees during the day. Native and irrigated pecan orchards were affected by heat stress, causing yield losses. Cotton plants also suffered, and bolls were opening while still small. Corn and hay harvests continued but slowed down. With the exception of a few irrigated fields, pastures and meadows were in very poor condition. Stock tanks and lake levels were low and grass fires increased. Due to the poor pasture conditions and lack of forage to graze, livestock diets were being supplemented. Livestock were in fair to good condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 15, 2023 Brutally hot and dry conditions dominated Central Texas. Soil moisture levels were very short to short. Counties were setting records for the most consecutive days over 100 degrees with no rain in the forecast. Pastures and rangelands were in very poor to fair condition with many looking dried out and turning yellow. The soil was visibly cracking in pastures. Tank water was evaporating quickly. Hay feeding and supplementation began for beef herds. Livestock were in good condition, and some cattle were being shipped off pastures. Hay producers needed another rain to make a cutting of hay. Sorghum harvest was well underway. Corn harvest was progressing rapidly with above-average yields reported. Yields for the earliest corn planted in March were excellent with some reports of more than 220 bushels per acre while those planted in April were 40-60 bushels per acre. Overall, the corn yields were above average. Cotton conditions declined somewhat with the intense heat and drought. Some spider mites were showing up but were not at treatable levels yet. Trees were shedding leaves. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 1, 2023

Extreme heat and dry conditions persisted in the Rolling Plains last week. Cotton across the entire district was reported as poor or completely burned up. Many cattle producers continued thinning their herds, selling as many as possible to reduce the amount of hay and supplements being fed. Some farmers started to dry-sow wheat and apply fertilizer in anticipation of forecasted rains. All counties were hopeful for the projected moisture and cooler temperatures. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 12, 2023 Rolling Plains farmers and ranchers didn’t experience any relief for their land or livestock. Widespread drought continued with the prolonged extreme heat and lack of measurable moisture. The increased concern for fire conditions persisted. Water levels in livestock water tanks were edging dangerously low for producers, if not gone altogether. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 Extreme fire danger was a concern across the Rolling Plains and will continue to be until substantial rain falls. Several counties reported wildfires; fortunately they were mostly contained or completely put out. The prolonged heat has taken its toll on pastures and cultivated crops. Cotton acres were especially hurting. Most of the district was reporting severe infestations of grasshoppers, and some areas were starting to see more blister bugs as well. Cattle were being fed hay and supplements because of the lack of grazing. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 15, 2023 Widespread drought conditions continued in Texas' Rolling Plains. All counties were experiencing the adverse effects of extreme heat and lack of moisture. Pasture grasses and crops without irrigation were showing signs of severe stress. Grasshoppers were posing a problem and consuming any green vegetation left. Wildfire dangers were worrying many producers as foliage dried down. Livestock were being fed with supplemental hay due to the lack of available grazing, and many producers were also facing low drinking water levels in stock ponds. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 1, 2023

A few areas of the Coastal Bend reported isolated storms bringing less than a half inch of rain. Some damaging winds were reported in Wharton County. High temperatures and lack of additional rain dried out most fields, allowing producers to continue stalk destruction and preparing the soil for the growing season. Most cotton harvest was completed. Some rice fields were being irrigated for the ratoon crop. Wharton County reported rice acreage was down 40% from last year due to unavailable surface water for irrigation. More than 20,000 acres of rice were reported as prevented planting in 2023 due to unavailable irrigation water. Livestock producers continued culling herds and selling calves due to poor pastures and limited water availability. Some cattle producers tried to feed their way through the drought with hay and protein supplements. Pasture conditions were poor, and hay supplies were critically low. Hay was costly, if it could be found. Livestock markets continued holding firm, even with higher numbers of cattle selling. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 12, 2023 Widespread rainfall from a tropical system benefited much of the Coastal Bend. However, it did little to offset drought. Matagorda County was declared a natural disaster area due to recent drought. The threat of wildfires was very high. Most row crop harvests were completed, apart from some cotton and rice. Most producers were working on stalk destruction of cotton and disking corn stalks. Triple-digit temperatures continued to deteriorate rangelands and pastures. Livestock markets remained strong, and large runs on cattle kept auctions busy. Many producers were trying to hang on to their cattle and were feeding hay and supplements. Hay was being transported, much of it coming as crop stubble out of the Rio Grande Valley and the rice-growing areas. Producers were keeping an eye on stock water sources. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 Excessive heat and lack of moisture continued to exacerbate the drought. All areas needed rainfall. The dry weather was good for producers during cotton harvest. Yields thus far were mixed with some reporting below average yields but most reporting better than expected outcomes. Rice harvest was about half complete, and corn harvest was nearly done. Rangeland and pasture conditions continued to deteriorate. Grasses were becoming dry and crunchy. Livestock continued to look better than expected in most cases. Cattle market prices were still at historic highs. Livestock inventory numbers were shrinking as some ranchers were feeding hay. Hay production had halted. Many beef producers were purchasing crop residue hay from other areas. Ponds in many areas were dry, and there was a lot of attention being directed toward making sure water troughs were functioning. Commercial and homeowner pecan trees were shedding nuts despite irrigation. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 15, 2023 Hot and dry conditions prevailed in the Coastal Bend. Heavy corn and sorghum yields were being reported. Cotton needed rain, and conditions were declining. Rice harvest was well underway. Hay harvesting was still in full swing; however, without more rain there may be only one cutting this season. Pastures and rangelands were drying up fast. Burn bans were in effect for many areas due to extremely dry conditions. Supplemental feeding of cattle was taking place in some areas. Livestock were doing well, and prices remained strong at auctions. Many ranchers were selling calves early to reduce stress on cows and pastures. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 1, 2023