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Historic heat, drought and plenty of dry vegetation to burn were contributing to the unprecedented wildfire season, in which more than 550 blazes burned in August alone, charring more than 60,000 acres of land, incinerating homes and causing towns to evacuate. The largest fire in Louisiana, the Tiger Island Fire, has been burning for almost a month, has blackened more than 31,000 acres, which is more land than usually burns in a year. The entire town of Merryville, population 1,200 people, had to evacuate. Louisiana is typically dealing with hurricanes and flooding at this time of year rather than wildfires. Firefighters have been overworked this summer. The Associated Press (Baton Rouge, La.), Sept 17, 2023

Residents in the City of Oronoco were asked to use less water by the Rochester Public Utilities. Residents of Albert Lea were urged to reduce outdoor water use to guard underground drinking water supplies. The people of Lanesboro were also asked to conserve water. the Upper Mississippi-Black-Root watershed has been elevated to the Drought Restrictive Response Phase. KIMT 3 (Rochester, Minn.), Sept 18, 2023

Drought in Mississippi has dried up pastures and water supplies, forcing farmers to sell cattle. A sale barn in Scott County broke a record for cattle sales the first week of September when 2,800 livestock were sold. That record was broken the second week of September and is expected to be broken again next week. Altogether, about 8,500 cattle have been auctioned at the sale barn in the past three weeks. WLBT Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 18, 2023 Farmers across Mississippi have begun to sell livestock, due to drought. More than 3,000 head of cattle were sold on Monday, Sept. 11 in Forest at the Tadlock Stockyard for lack of grass for the cattle to eat. Calves were being sold early at lighter weights because the calves cannot gain weight on the sparse pasture. The stockyard owner said that 90% of the cattle were sold to out-of-state buyers. Water for livestock was getting low. Cattle got bogged down in an empty pond, trying to get the last of the water. The cattle had to be moved elsewhere. More farmers have taken their lives in the past couple of years, due to stress and unforeseen circumstances. WJTV TV 12 (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 13, 2023

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 17 22:29:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 17 22:29:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... Within the base of a large-scale trough over western Canada, a belt of enhanced low/mid-level westerly flow will persist from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. Breezy post-frontal surface winds are expected across portions of the Northwest and northern Plains on Day 3/Tuesday, though limited boundary-layer heating/mixing will temper RH reductions and the potential for the stronger flow aloft to mix to the surface. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for both areas, confidence in the development of critical conditions is currently low. ...Days 4-8/Wednesday-Sunday... A substantial mid/upper-level jet streak will advance southward along the West Coast, supporting the development of a midlevel cut-off low over the western CONUS. On Day 4/Wednesday, a related surface low will deepen over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its northwestern periphery. As a result, northerly surface winds will strengthen across portions of Oregon, though generally cool surface temperatures should limit RH reductions. While this may still support some increase in fire-weather concerns, the limited overlap of strong winds and low RH casts uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Along the southern/eastern peripheries of the cut-off low, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. While this will lead to increasing fire-weather concerns on a localized basis, much of this area has experienced appreciable rainfall -- limiting confidence in where the fire-weather threat will be maximized. ..Weinman.. 09/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two remain possible across portions of the southeast Atlantic coastal region through early tonight. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments, including a decrease of the western extent of the southeastern U.S. MRGL risk area to reflect convective advance/evolution, no appreciable changes to outlook areas or forecast reasoning appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 09/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023/ ...Southeast Coastal Plain... A large and deepening upper trough is present today over much of the eastern US, with its associated surface cold front moving into the southeast states. Along and ahead of the front, ample low level moisture and moderate CAPE values are present from southeast NC into parts of SC/GA and FL. Visible satellite imagery shows considerable clouds across much of this region, which will limit daytime heating to the 70s and 80s. However, greater heating will be associated with a region of more clear skies over southern GA and eventually over southeast SC. Several morning CAM solutions focus on this area for robust afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in this area show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, a lack of persistent mid-level dry air, and winds below 3km mainly less than 20kt. This suggests a risk of locally gusty winds, but only a marginal threat of severe gusts. A brief tornado or two is also possible early this evening over northeast SC and southeast NC where low-level shear will be slightly stronger. Therefore will maintain ongoing MRGL risk category. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA... ...Montana... A Critical area was added over portions of central and eastern Montana, where confidence in the overlap of 15-20 percent RH and sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph has increased based on the latest guidance consensus. Given very dry fuels over this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Upon collaboration with fire-weather partners and local forecast offices, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were trimmed over much of the Sierra -- where fuels remain too wet for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ...Northern Cascades/Columbia Basin... Locally critical conditions are possible primarily within gap-flow areas of the northern Cascades. However, these conditions appear too localized for Critical highlights. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone will move across southern Alberta on Monday with a cold front extending into the northern Plains. In the wake of this cold front, dry and breezy conditions are expected across Montana and western North Dakota with winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 13 to 18 percent. Fuels in this region, are critically dry, particularly across northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota where less than an inch of precipitation has fallen in the last 30 days. Farther west, stronger mid-level flow will overspread the Columbia Basin as the next shortwave trough approaches. Some of this stronger flow may mix to the surface amid a deepening boundary layer Monday afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central/northern Sierra and the Klamath mountains Monday afternoon/evening. These storms will form in an environment with PWAT around 0.5 inches. Therefore, storms are expected to be mostly dry with LCLs around 10kft. An IsoDryT delineation has been added across this area to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continue to show signs of becoming better
organized. This system is currently elongated, but environmental
conditions are expected to allow for additional development during
the next few days. A tropical depression is expected to form by the
middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward over
the central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 16 21:31:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 16 21:31:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... Within the base of a large-scale trough over western Canada, several embedded midlevel perturbations accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the northwestern CONUS on Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. Related downslope trajectories off the northern Cascades and northern Rockies will favor dry/breezy conditions across the Columbia Basin (on Day 3/Monday) and the northern Plains (on Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday). Given dry fuels across both areas, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday... A substantial mid/upper-level jet streak will advance southward along the West Coast, resulting in the development of a midlevel cut-off low over the western CONUS. Along the northwestern periphery of this feature, strong north-northeasterly surface winds will overspread Washington and Oregon. However, current indications are that increasing low/mid-level moisture and related cloud coverage may limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. Along the southern and eastern peripheries of the cut-off low, an expansive area of strong surface winds and low RH are expected across portions of the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. While the dry/windy conditions will result in increasing fire-weather concerns, recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels cast uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2023 20:34:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2023 21:41:50 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 162033 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 The structure of the depression has degraded during the last several hours. The low-level center is now completely exposed and well removed to the west of a decaying area of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be a little generous. The system is moving westward at 10 kt. A westward to west-southwestward motion is expected in the low- to mid-level flow during the next day or so. The depression, or its remnant low, is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin this afternoon. Strong shear and dry air will continue to affect the depression and should ultimately cause the system to lose the remaining convection by tonight, as persistently forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models. Dissipation is likely to occur by 36 hours. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 14.2N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 13.9N 141.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 13.5N 142.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION NEAR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND POORLY ORGANIZED... ...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Sep 16 the center of Twelve-E was located near 14.2, -139.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 162033 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 162033 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 ...DEPRESSION NEAR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND POORLY ORGANIZED... ...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 139.7W ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1290 MI...2080 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 139.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and the depression is forecast to become a remnant low tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 162032 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.7W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.7W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 139.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.9N 141.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.5N 142.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 139.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4 ...WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms remain possible across a portion of southeastern Texas, and will continue over parts of the central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... Few changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time, as current and anticipated evolution of convection remains in line with prior expectations. The primary changes in this outlook will trimming the MRGL risk area and removal of hail probability in southeastern Texas, in line with current convection evolution and motion, and also a slight northwestward expansion of MRGL risk over the southeastern Minnesota vicinity, where convection continues to develop just to the west of the existing outlook area. Otherwise, prior reasoning remains valid, across the CONUS. ..Goss.. 09/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023/ ...TX... A long-lived MCS continues to track slowly southeastward across central TX. These storms produced occasional strong-severe wind gusts earlier this morning near/northwest of SJT. However, more recent trends have shown a general decreasing trend. At least remnants of the MCS are expected to persist through the day and track southeastward toward the coast. However, given the relatively weak winds aloft and lack of a more focused forcing mechanism, it is likely that the overall severe threat will remain rather marginal. Locally strong-damaging wind gusts will be the main risk. ...Central Plains into Mid MS Valley... A relatively strong upper trough and associated surface cold front is moving southeastward across parts of MN/WI/IA. By mid/late afternoon, this front will extend from near the KS/NE border into southern IA and southern WI. Scattered thunderstorm development will occur along/ahead of the front, in a moderately unstable air mass. Cool mid-level temperatures (-16 to -18C at 500mb) coupled with dewpoints in the 60s may result in sufficiently favorable thermodynamics for hail in the stronger updrafts. Steep low-level lapse rates could also promote gusty winds. However, the overall severe threat appears rather marginal at this time. Read more