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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... The primary change with this update was to add an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over portions of northern California into south-central Oregon -- where fuels are modestly receptive. Similar to Day 1/Saturday, sufficient midlevel moisture and diurnal heating will support isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon/evening hours -- aided by weak large-scale ascent preceding a mid/upper-level low off the California coast. Inverted-V thermodynamic profiles and 0.5-0.8 inch PW will favor a mix of dry/wet storms (mostly dry), with an attendant risk of isolated lightning-induced ignitions. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 09/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... ...North-central Montana... A shortwave trough will move across southern Alberta on Sunday, this will overspread stronger mid-level flow across northern Montana and lead to lee cyclogenesis east of the Canadian Rockies with a tightening pressure gradient. The combination of deep mixing beneath this stronger mid-level flow, downslope flow, and a tightening surface pressure gradient, will lead to strong winds across northern Montana on Sunday. In addition, relative humidity will be very dry (9 to 16 percent). Much of this area has received less than half an inch of precipitation in the past 2 weeks. Therefore, given the weather conditions and dry fuels, there will be critical fire weather concerns across north-central Montana on Sunday. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are expected in the Columbia Basin as moderate mid-level flow remains in a region of deep boundary-layer mixing. Therefore, some elevated fire weather concerns are possible during the afternoon on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Twelve-E, located over the western portion of the East
Pacific.

Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms well south of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle
of next week. The system is expected to move west-northwestward over
the central and western portions of the east Pacific during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening over parts of southeast Georgia and the Carolina Coastal Plain. A mid-level trough initially extending from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the central Gulf Coast area will advance steadily toward the Appalachians through Monday morning. Elsewhere, ridging aloft will prevail across much of the country. At the surface, a weak/diffuse front will progress eastward across the Appalachians, and then become a bit better-organized -- reaching the East Coast overnight. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve over southeastern Georgia during the day, and then move northeastward along the Carolina Coast through the second half of the period. ...Southeast... Daytime heating/weak destabilization is forecast over parts of Georgia and South Carolina Sunday, in the vicinity of the developing frontal wave. This should support development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, which would then spread northeastward in the vicinity of the North Carolina coast later in the period. With enhanced shear in the vicinity of the frontal wave, a few stronger storms/storm clusters may evolve with time, accompanied by risk for locally gusty winds. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly near or just off the Carolina coast through the second half of the period. ..Goss.. 09/16/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 15 22:16:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 15 22:16:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The greatest potential for critical fire-weather conditions will generally be confined to portions of the northern Plains (particularly northern Montana) and the Northwest during the extended forecast period. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - Northern Montana... Strong westerly flow aloft accompanying a series of midlevel shortwave troughs will overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent northern Plains on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. On Day 3/Sunday, downslope-related warming/drying will yield 10-15 percent RH across northern Montana. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient, will support 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) in the lee of the northern Rockies in Montana. Given dry fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected on Day 3/Sunday. Critical conditions will also be possible across the area on Day 4/Monday, though confidence in the overlap of 20 mph sustained surface winds and 20 percent RH is lower than Day 3/Sunday -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Northwest... Similar to the northern Rockies, strong westerly flow across the northern Cascades will promote dry/breezy conditions -- primarily across the Columbia Basin on Day 3/Sunday. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-15 percent minimum RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, these conditions appear too localized to terrain features to add 70-percent Critical probabilities. Late in the extended forecast period, strong offshore winds could develop across the Northwest, though large differences amongst the global model guidance regarding the evolution of a midlevel low casts uncertainty on where the fire-weather threat will be maximized. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2023 20:58:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2023 21:43:50 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 152037 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 152037 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORMS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 136.2W ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1485 MI...2390 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 136.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, but the depression is expected to dissipate as a remnant low within a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORMS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Sep 15 the center of Twelve-E was located near 15.1, -136.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 152033 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 The tropical disturbance that we've been watching for a few days had a burst of vigorous deep convection overnight. Overnight microwave passes and satellite imagery over the last 24 hours have shown increased organization at times in the convective banding. The deep convection now appears to be persistent and organized enough to classify this system as a tropical depression. A blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CPHC suggest initiating advisories for this system with an intensity of 25 kt. More recently, visible satellite imagery is showing the low level center has emerged from the higher clouds associated with the convection. UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that Tropical Depression 12E is embedded within the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerly shear, associated with the subtropical jet stream to the north. The depression is not likely to last long, as global models indicate the subtropical jet will sag south a bit over the next couple of days, maintaining westerly shear over the system. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggests that occasional pulses of deep convection may continue for a day or so as the system is steered toward the west-southwest by the trade wind flow to the south of a strengthening subtropical ridge. The track forecast most closely follows the TVCN until the system becomes a remnant low far to the east-southeast of Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.1N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 14.8N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 14.7N 140.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 14.5N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster R Ballard

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 152032 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.2W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.2W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 135.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 138.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.7N 140.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 141.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 136.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado or two are most likely across the southern High Plains into tonight. ...20z Update... The main change with the 20z update is the removal of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across portions of MN/WI. Weak heating due to persistent cloud cover, coupled with modest boundary-layer moisture and weak midlevel lapse rates are resulting in MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less. Additionally, vertical shear will remain somewhat low. Latest HRRR and RRFS guidance indicates very low storm coverage through this evening. Any stronger cells that do develop may produce small hail, but overall severe potential appears lower than previous expected. The previous outlook remains on track across the southern High Plains vicinity, and severe storms are expected into this evening and tonight. For more details, see previous discussion below. ..Leitman.. 09/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023/ ...Eastern NM/West TX.. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over eastern NM and west TX this morning, with weak east/northeasterly surface winds across the region. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s are common, which combined with moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should yield MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Present indications are that scattered storms will form off the higher terrain of eastern NM after 21z as large scale forcing for ascent strengthens ahead of a shortwave trough now over the Four Corners region. These storms will track slowly eastward and intensify as they move into west TX this evening. Westerly mid/upper level winds will be sufficiently strong for a few supercells capable of large hail and locally gusty winds. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were introduced for portions of northwest California with this update. Efficient diurnal heating and adequate midlevel moisture will contribute to sufficient (albeit marginal) instability for isolated thunderstorm development over the Klamath Mountains in northwest CA -- aided by weak large-scale ascent preceding a mid/upper-level low. A dry/deeply mixed boundary layer (inverted-V thermodynamic profiles) should favor limited rainfall accumulations with this activity and an associated risk of isolated lightning-induced ignitions. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue into Saturday with mostly light surface winds continuing across the western CONUS. Late Saturday afternoon, some stronger mid-level flow may start to overspread the Northwest as the ridge starts to break down. This stronger flow, and a tightening pressure gradient, may result in some brief stronger winds across north-central Montana late Saturday afternoon after peak heating. Therefore, due to this later arrival of stronger winds, fire weather concerns should remain mostly minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized
on the east side of an area of low pressure located about 1300 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. If these trends continue, a
short-lived tropical depression will likely form later today while
it moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable over the weekend,
ending the system's chances for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

Sedan was in a stage 3 water emergency as water storage dropped below 50%. Outdoor water was banned, and water waste was prohibited. The goal of stage 3 is to reduce the overall weekly water consumption by 25% and reduce peak demands by 50%. KSN-TV Online (Wichita, Kan.), Aug 3, 2023

Pecan production in Texas has been affected by drought. The El Paso area in Far West Texas, for example, received rain which allowed pecan production to continue, but other parts of the state were not so fortunate. Pecan trees have died in drier parts of Texas. Drought has also reduced the number of pests typically seen in pecan trees. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 12, 2023

Drought in northern Virginia, a spring freeze and an extremely down market for apples were some of the reasons that fewer apples will be picked in Frederick County this season. some growers were leaving parts of their orchards unpicked because the low prices being offered for processing apples won’t cover the cost to harvest them this year. Apples were smaller this year, due to the drought. some apple trees even died from the drought. The Winchester Star (Va.), Sept 14, 2023

A Keezletown farm will not open for its fall harvest festival because all of the pumpkin plants died as did much of the sunflowers and evergreen seedlings. The farm does not have irrigation to sustain the crops when it’s dry. Cattle were being fed hay because the pasture was dry. The farm will open for the Christmas season. Harrisonburg Daily News-Record (Va.), Sept 14, 2023

The Town of Copan issued an Emergency Proclamation on Sept. 13 due to a water shortage stemming from drought. Copan Lake was 6.49 feet below normal, which is a critically low level that jeopardizes the town’s ability to draw water for treatment and distribution. Washington County Rural Water District #7 and Hulah Water District #20 were also affected by the water shortage. KWTV-TV Oklahoma City (Okla.), Sept 14, 2023