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Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 202035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 ...KENNETH MAINTAINING INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 124.2W ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 124.2 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is anticipated Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to commence by Thursday night, and Kenneth should become a remnant low Friday night or early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

...KENNETH MAINTAINING INTENSITY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.7, -124.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 202035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 124.2W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 124.2W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.2N 125.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 126.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.5N 126.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 124.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A strong westerly mid/upper-level jet streak, accompanying a deep midlevel low tracking eastward across the northern Rockies, will impinge on the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Day 3/Friday. A related surface low will deepen over the KS/CO border, yielding a tightening surface pressure gradient across the region. Downslope warming/drying (10-15 percent RH) over northeast NM, the western TX/OK Panhandles, and southeastern CO, combined with breezy/gusty westerly surface winds, will support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The primary limiting factor is marginal fuels across the area, precluding 70-percent Critical probabilities. Beyond Day 3/Friday, the potential for critical meteorological conditions over dry fuels appears low. ..Weinman.. 09/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible across parts of southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas through this evening. Gusty winds may also accompany a few storms over the northern Great Basin. ...OK/TX... A very conditional risk for a strong/severe storm through early evening continues across parts of southeast OK into northeast TX. The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk area has been trimmed from portions of eastern OK into western AR and far northeast TX. Persistent clouds and showers/thunderstorms have limited heating much of the day. Southwestern portions of the Marginal risk area have largely cleared out this afternoon and allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. However, quite a bit of inhibition remains. Furthermore, HRRR and RRFS guidance shows little convective development this afternoon/evening. Some cumulus development is noted closer to the I-35 corridor amid stronger instability and weaker inhibition. Nebulous large-scale ascent may be insufficient to overcome this inhibition. However, if a storm can develop near the western edge of the Marginal risk and track southeast along residual outflow, a risk for hail and strong gusts could occur for a few hours. ...NV/UT/ID/WY... No changes have been made with the 20z update. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023/ ...OK/AR/TX/LA... A persistent nocturnal MCS is weakening over western AR, with clearing skies over eastern OK in its wake. Strong heating will help yield a moderately unstable air mass by late afternoon across southeastern OK, where there will be some chance of a thunderstorm or two. Effective shear values of 40-50 knots and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a risk of large hail and damaging winds in any persistent storm that develops. However, weakening large scale support and a residual cap suggest the risk of initiation is rather low in the primary instability region. ...NV/UT/ID/WY... A rather dynamic upper trough is digging quickly southeastward today across the Pacific Northwest region. This will allow large scale ascent to overspread much of the northern Great Basin by this afternoon. A corridor of mid-level moisture ahead of the trough extends from northern NV into northwest WY, and should be favorable for the development of scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms later today. Skies are currently clear in this region, allowing steep low-level lapse rates to develop. As winds aloft strengthen this afternoon, the potential will exist for gusty/damaging wind gusts in a few of the fast-moving storms. Read more

107
ABPZ20 KNHC 201752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP96):
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible late this week and over the
weekend while it moves generally westward into the Central Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days
well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible this
weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

Residents and business owners of Tampa were encouraged to use water wisely as the area endured ongoing drought, an abnormal rainy season and a significant increase in water use. Water demand within city limits has been about 4 million gallons more daily than at this time of year in the past. Tampa was buying additional water from Tampa Bay Water, the city’s wholesale water provider. WTSP 10 Tampa Bay (Fla.), Sept 20, 2023

Large cracks and holes on the fields at Ramon Lucio ballpark in San Marcos were blamed on the drought. Fields were not safe to use, so the Parks and Recreation department opted to delay play on Monday, Sept. 18. The rest of the park was still open. FOX 7 Austin (Texas), Sept 19, 2023

The cranberry harvest in Wisconsin may be tricky for growers because little rain has fallen, leaving pond levels down. WAOW-ABC 9-Wausau (Wis.), Sept 19, 2023

A burn ban was issued for York County and will be in effect from Sept. 21 through Oct. 5. The county also had burn bans in April and June. York Dispatch (Pa.), Sept. 19, 2023

Allamakee County was the 18th county in Iowa and the 11th county in the northeast part of the state to adopt a burn ban. Allamakee County’s ban took effect on Sept. 12. Waukon Standard (Iowa), Sept 20, 2023 Burn bans were in effect for 16 Iowa counties as drought and continuing dry conditions affected the region. Open burning was prohibited. KGAN-TV CBS 2 (Cedar Rapids, Iowa), Sept. 8, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192306
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Kenneth, located about 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

MD 2164 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 686... FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Areas affected...Northwest Texas and western Oklahoma. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686... Valid 192255Z - 200030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686 continues. SUMMARY...Increasing coverage and intensity of severe thunderstorms is expected through the evening. DISCUSSION...Showers which developed across the Texas Panhandle have intensified into supercells over the last hour as they moved into increasing instability (1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Effective shear of 40 to 45 knots per FDR VWP will continue to maintain the supercell threat through the evening. The long, relatively straight hodographs supports splitting supercells, the first of which has already occurred along the Texas/Oklahoma border east of Childress. Given moderate instability to the north of these ongoing storms, there may sufficient instability to support longer lived left-moving supercells capable of large to very large hail, particularly across southwest Oklahoma. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32900070 33680061 34800021 35779936 36029885 36059816 35919752 34969739 33669768 32809812 32579908 32900070 Read more

WW 0686 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 686 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..09/19/23 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 686 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-051-055-057-065-067-073-075- 137-141-149-192340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-075-077-087-101-125-151-155-191-197-207-237-253-263- 269-275-337-345-417-429-433-447-485-487-503-192340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CHILDRESS CLAY COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE DICKENS FISHER FOARD HALL HARDEMAN HASKELL JACK JONES KENT KING KNOX MONTAGUE Read more

WW 686 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 192145Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 686 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through early evening and move southeast. Very large hail, possibly up to baseball size, and damaging winds will be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 110 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX to 60 miles north northeast of Clinton OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Bunting Read more

MD 2163 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 686... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 2163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Areas affected...north-central Texas. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686... Valid 192220Z - 192345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686 continues. SUMMARY...A supercell across north-central Texas could pose a large hail threat this evening. DISCUSSION...A supercell formed on the western periphery of mid-day elevated convection which moved east across north-central Texas. Given only weak CINH near this storm and its radar depiction over the last hour, this storm has likely rooted and is surface based in a region with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 40+ knots of mid-level northwesterly flow (per FWD VWP) has yielded near 50 knots of effective shear. This environment will support supercells capable of large hail (potentially 2+ inches). If this storm continues to turn right, which it has started to do over the last 15 to 30 minutes, portions of at least the northern DFW metro area may be impacted by large to very large hail this evening. If this storm continues to maintain its current intensity or strengthen, an expansion of watch 686 may be needed. ..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 33649755 33609688 33189611 32739589 32469641 32599703 32869743 33099767 33269770 33649755 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z On the backside of a midlevel cut-off low centered over portions of Oregon, a substantial mid/upper-level jet streak will overspread the West Coast on Day 3/Thursday. In the northern Sacramento Valley, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will favor breezy/gusty surface winds and 10-15 percent RH on Day 3/Thursday. While this may yield elevated fire-weather conditions, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will be in place across much of the Southwest into the central/southern Rockies on Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday. A deeply mixed boundary layer across these areas will support 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH. These meteorological conditions would typically warrant Critical probabilities, though ample rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. Beyond Day 5/Saturday, strong midlevel flow accompanying a mid/upper-level trough will overspread the northwestern CONUS, favoring strengthening surface winds across the region. While this may lead to an increase in fire-weather concerns, rainfall preceding this system and continued model disagreement limits confidence in the fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z On the backside of a midlevel cut-off low centered over portions of Oregon, a substantial mid/upper-level jet streak will overspread the West Coast on Day 3/Thursday. In the northern Sacramento Valley, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will favor breezy/gusty surface winds and 10-15 percent RH on Day 3/Thursday. While this may yield elevated fire-weather conditions, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will be in place across much of the Southwest into the central/southern Rockies on Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday. A deeply mixed boundary layer across these areas will support 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH. These meteorological conditions would typically warrant Critical probabilities, though ample rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. Beyond Day 5/Saturday, strong midlevel flow accompanying a mid/upper-level trough will overspread the northwestern CONUS, favoring strengthening surface winds across the region. While this may lead to an increase in fire-weather concerns, rainfall preceding this system and continued model disagreement limits confidence in the fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z On the backside of a midlevel cut-off low centered over portions of Oregon, a substantial mid/upper-level jet streak will overspread the West Coast on Day 3/Thursday. In the northern Sacramento Valley, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will favor breezy/gusty surface winds and 10-15 percent RH on Day 3/Thursday. While this may yield elevated fire-weather conditions, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will be in place across much of the Southwest into the central/southern Rockies on Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday. A deeply mixed boundary layer across these areas will support 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH. These meteorological conditions would typically warrant Critical probabilities, though ample rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. Beyond Day 5/Saturday, strong midlevel flow accompanying a mid/upper-level trough will overspread the northwestern CONUS, favoring strengthening surface winds across the region. While this may lead to an increase in fire-weather concerns, rainfall preceding this system and continued model disagreement limits confidence in the fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z On the backside of a midlevel cut-off low centered over portions of Oregon, a substantial mid/upper-level jet streak will overspread the West Coast on Day 3/Thursday. In the northern Sacramento Valley, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will favor breezy/gusty surface winds and 10-15 percent RH on Day 3/Thursday. While this may yield elevated fire-weather conditions, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. Along the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will be in place across much of the Southwest into the central/southern Rockies on Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday. A deeply mixed boundary layer across these areas will support 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH. These meteorological conditions would typically warrant Critical probabilities, though ample rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels should limit the overall fire-weather threat. Beyond Day 5/Saturday, strong midlevel flow accompanying a mid/upper-level trough will overspread the northwestern CONUS, favoring strengthening surface winds across the region. While this may lead to an increase in fire-weather concerns, rainfall preceding this system and continued model disagreement limits confidence in the fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more