Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 8 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jova, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Pumpkins grown in the Duluth area were smaller than usual for lack of rain. Christmas trees were also affected. WDIO News (Duluth, Minn.), Sept 7, 2023

Fairhope and Daphne agreed to share water during drought via a new water line with a two-way valve between the two water systems. The connection is expected to cost about $50,000. WALA TV 10 (Mobile, Ala.), Sept 7, 2023

The Eau Claire Downtown Farmers Market has had fewer vendors this summer as drought slowed plant growth, and the heat killed many planted seeds. Some seeds would not sprout. The lack of rain reduced produce, which led farmers to charge more for what was able to be grown. WEAU (Eau Claire, Wis.), Aug 31, 2023

A burn ban took effect for Hancock County on Sept. 5, due to dry conditions. The public was urged to be cautious, and farmers were recommended to have equipment nearby to quickly extinguish any field fires that might occur. Globe Gazette (Mason City, Iowa), Sept 6, 2023

Some trees in the Davenport area were beginning to turn color early after a summer of drought stress. Some leaves were already on the ground. KWQC Online (Davenport, Iowa), Sept 6, 2023

Heat and drought have cut hay production in the Alvarado area. A sudangrass grower was only able to get one cutting instead of the usual three cuttings. Consequently, the price of a bale of hay was around $150, which is more than twice that of hay during a good year when it would fetch $60 to $65 per bale. Ranchers were supplementing cattle feed with corn stalks to keep the cattle fed. Feed prices were forcing some ranchers to sell cattle. With the cattle count the lowest since 1962, beef prices were about 25% higher than last year and about twice the price compared to three years ago. WFAA (Dallas, Texas), Sept 6, 2023

The tops of trees in Lutsen along Lake Superior were changing color early after drought this summer. Up to 25% of trees in parts of northwest Minnesota were also turning color, per the Department of Natural Resources. Trees at the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum in Chaska, just southwest of Minneapolis, were also turning color. CBS Minnesota (Minneapolis), Sept 6, 2023

No rain fell for about five weeks after pumpkins were planted in Wisconsin this spring. Weeds competed with the pumpkins for moisture in some cases. Pumpkin vines were yielding fewer pumpkins this year. WSAW-TV CBS 7 Wausau (Wis.), Sept 6, 2023

Apples at a Rochester area orchard were smaller than usual, and the leaves were drought-stressed. Some pumpkins did not germinate when planted, but eventually germinated in July. The late-germinating pumpkins do not have ripe fruit that can be sold. KIMT 3 (Rochester, Minn.), Sept 7, 2023

Some fish mortality has been reported in Shenandoah National Park where all streams were closed to fishing. Streams were low, and the heat was stressing the fish. Visitors should not expect to see spectacular waterfalls. The fire danger is high, so vehicles should not be parked in tall vegetation. NBC Washington (D.C.), Sept 7, 2023

Outdoor adventure companies along the Shenandoah River were seeing fewer customers. One business reported that fall bookings were down 50%. NBC Washington (D.C.), Sept 7, 2023

The town of Front Royal put emergency conservation rules into effect on Sept. 5 as its water comes from the Shenandoah River, which was alarmingly low. All outdoor water use was prohibited. Water restriction violators could be fined $1,000. NBC Washington (D.C.), Sept 7, 2023

MD 2100 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673... FOR FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 2100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023 Areas affected...Far eastern Pennsylvania...central and eastern New York...western New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673... Valid 072213Z - 072345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673. Damaging gusts remain the main concern, particularly with bowing segments embedded within the broader line of storms. DISCUSSION...A mature line of thunderstorms continues to move across the Hudson Valley, with a bowing segment (potentially augmented by a subtle MCV located to the west) currently tracking over central NY. Surface temperatures in the 85-90 F range continues to support MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg, which should support additional damaging gusts into the evening. Damaging gusts may be most common with the bowing line segment in central NY. Isolated instances of hail may continue with the more discrete convection in far eastern NY. ..Squitieri.. 09/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 42867687 43727586 43997500 43937422 43577372 42637376 41707418 40867447 40167512 39457596 39257660 39327684 39897660 40847607 41307571 41907553 42367610 42867687 Read more

MD 2099 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 2099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023 Areas affected...portions of western Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072150Z - 072315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts may accompany a small multicell cluster across western ME over the next couple of hours. Areal coverage is expected to be a limited with this storm cluster and a WW issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A small MCS is traversing the NH/Canada border, and is propagating eastward toward far western ME, where 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE resides. MRMS mosaic radar shows some slight bowing with the leading-line reflectivity, indicative of an appreciable cold pool contributing to forward propagation. Continued downbursts will both sustain the cold pool and promote damaging gust potential for at least the next couple of hours. Since the severe wind threat should remain isolated and spatially confined to the counties closest to the border, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 45167139 45337115 45477085 45847033 46007004 45886982 45486976 45056991 44747027 44697063 44687095 44727144 45167139 Read more

WW 0673 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 673 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BWI TO 30 SE BGM TO 20 W ITH. ..SUPINIE..09/07/23 ATTN...WFO...LWX...OKX...PHI...ALY...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 673 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC003-015-025-033-510-072240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CECIL HARFORD PRINCE GEORGES MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NJC013-019-027-031-037-039-041-072240- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESSEX HUNTERDON MORRIS PASSAIC SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC001-007-017-021-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-053-057-065-067- Read more

WW 673 SEVERE TSTM DC MD NJ NY PA VA WV CW 071705Z - 080100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 673 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia central Maryland northwestern New Jersey central and eastern New York central and eastern Pennsylvania northern Virginia eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing east of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains will gradually develop north-northeastward during the next couple of hours, before eventually growing into one or two larger storm clusters. Thereafter, increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts is possible on expanding thunderstorm outflows spreading northeastward and eastward into early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles southeast of Hagerstown MD to 40 miles west northwest of Glens Falls NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Kerr Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2023 20:39:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2023 21:35:31 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023 Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows Jova is gradually weakening. The eye has been cloud-filled for much of the day, with dry air trying to wrap into the southern and eastern side of the system. SSMIS microwave imagery depicts the earlier thick concentric eyewall is starting to thin, with the inner core becoming less pronounced. Infrared imagery shows this as well with the infrared cloud tops warming throughout the day as well. Subjective satellite estimates were lower this advisory, with Dvorak final-T numbers of 6.0 and CI numbers of 7.0 from both TAFB and SAB. Given the structural changes depicted in microwave and visible imagery, the initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to 125 kt, which falls between the latest Dvorak estimates. Jova may continue to experience some short-term intensity fluctuations as it undergoes structural changes and moves into a less favorable environment. In about 24 h, Jova will cross a sharp sea surface temperature gradient into cooler waters, while it moves into a drier, more stable airmass. This will induce a steady weakening trend over the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection, and the official forecast shows Jova becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 96 h. The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 15 kt around a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Jova should generally follow this motion for the next several days. As the system weakens and becomes a shallow vortex, a turn toward the west and southwest within the low-level flow is anticipated. The guidance envelope remains in good agreement, and the track forecast is similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 17.7N 117.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 18.6N 119.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 19.8N 122.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 21.0N 124.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 22.4N 126.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 23.6N 127.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 24.5N 129.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 25.0N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z 24.2N 133.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 072037 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 53 35(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 20N 120W 50 2 25(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 120W 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X 8( 8) 55(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 5(25) X(25) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY