Aggregator

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 062037 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 X 20(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 115W 34 16 60(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 115W 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 18(18) 50(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 73(81) 1(82) X(82) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 8(45) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 25N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 062036 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.7W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.7W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.6N 113.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.7N 116.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.7N 126.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 129.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.4N 133.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble means and cluster analyses show high confidence in a building upper-level ridge over northern Mexico into the Southwest and southern Great Basin through the weekend followed by a gradual ridge breakdown as a longwave trough becomes established over the central and eastern CONUS next week. This synoptic pattern will favor warm and dry conditions across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the weekend, which should aid in curing currently unreceptive fuels. Fire weather concerns may emerge from west TX into the Four Corners/southern Great Basin during the D3/Friday to D5/Sunday period amid the hot, dry conditions, but uncertainties regarding fuel status and low confidence in the strength of low-level winds under the building ridge casts considerable uncertainty on the fire weather potential. Rain chances will increase across the southern Plains and Southwest/Four Corners region heading into next week, which should limit fire concerns. ..Moore.. 09/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms remain possible ahead of a weak/advancing cold front -- potentially most numerous over parts of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys and vicinity. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments to reflect ongoing and anticipated convective evolution, changes appear unnecessary at this time as prior reasoning continues to reflect current expectations for evolution of severe-weather potential this afternoon and evening. ..Goss.. 09/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... Amplified, but weak, mid-level troughing lingers offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard, with a modest cyclone, slowly migrating northeastward to the south of Nova Scotia, the most prominent embedded perturbation. Upstream, models indicate that mid-level troughing may also begin to amplify across and east of the Mississippi Valley, downstream of building short wave ridging to the north of a prominent subtropical high centered over southeastern New Mexico. The amplifying trough will include one generally weakening short wave impulse progressing across the Great Lakes region today through tonight, while an additional couple of perturbations dig within northwesterly flow southeast of the Black Hills vicinity through the Ozark Plateau/lower Mississippi Valley. Stronger wind fields are becoming largely confined to the northwesterly regime upstream of the evolving larger-scale mid-level trough axis, though a remnant belt of modest southwesterly flow (including 30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) downstream of the trough axis is forecast to nose northeast of lower Michigan through Ontario by mid/late afternoon. The latter speed maximum will accompany a weakening migratory low within weak surface troughing, along a cold front forecast to slowly advance eastward across the upper Great Lakes region, Ontario and central Quebec. An initial cold frontal surge already has reached the lower Ohio Valley, Ozark Plateau and Texas South Plains vicinity. Across parts of western Kentucky and Tennessee into northeastern Arkansas, the front is preceded by a remnant MCV and convective outflow associated with a dissipating cluster of thunderstorms. ...Great Lakes through southern Great Plains... While deep-layer mean wind fields and vertical shear have generally weakened ahead/south of the cold front, modestly steep lapse rates in lower through mid-levels, coupled with residual boundary-layer moisture, may contribute to areas of sizable mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. From the Tennessee Valley into the Great Lakes region, this may be more sparse in nature due to early day cloud cover and weak low-level focus for convective development. However, it seems probable that a more prominent zone of differential surface heating, across parts of central Arkansas into western Tennessee, will become a focus for at least scattered strong thunderstorm development by late this afternoon. Given thermodynamic profiles characterized by large CAPE and a very warm well-mixed boundary layer, various guidance has been suggestive that an upscale growing cluster could eventually evolve along consolidating, south/southwestward propagating cold pools into this evening. If this occurs, a hail/downburst threat in stronger initial storms may transition to a more widespread marginal severe wind threat. Other more widely scattered strong thunderstorm development is possible west-southwestward into a hotter, drier and more deeply mixed boundary layer across parts of west central Texas. Read more

Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek declared a state of drought emergency for Gilliam, Douglas and Lincoln counties and instructed state agencies to coordinate and provide assistance. KTVZ-TV NewsChannel 21 (Bend, Ore.), Sept 6, 2023

The York Water Company asked its customers to conserve water due to persistent dry conditions. The company also began drawing water from the Susquehanna River to supplement its supply. York County remained in a drought watch. York Daily Record (Pa.), Sept 6, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced for parts of the TX Panhandle/northwest TX into southwest OK. Recent CAM ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability of very isolated thunderstorms along the surface trough from west TX into northwest OK. PWAT values along this axis should range from 0.75 to 1.25 inches, but forecast soundings depict very deep, well-mixed boundary layers with LCLs between 3-3.5 km. This should modulate rainfall amounts to some degree, and given antecedent dry fuels (much of this region received little to no rainfall over the past 24 hours), dry lightning is possible and will pose a fire weather concern. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across northern NM and southeast WY as westerly winds increase to 15-20 mph (with locally stronger winds in the lee of terrain features). However, fuels across both regions appear to be only modestly receptive per recent ERC analyses. Transient elevated conditions are possible along the lee trough in northwest TX/southwest OK within the dry thunderstorm risk area, but low ensemble probability for sustained winds over 15 mph limits confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 09/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will remain within the Southwest on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will develop in the southern High Plains along the stalled surface front. High surface pressure will be situated within the Four Corners region. ...Southern High Plains... With the increase in the surface pressure gradient, some areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible from northeast New Mexico into parts of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Fuels will remain quite dry, particularly into the Rolling Plains/Permian Basin. However, the impact of precipitation from Tuesday evening will have to be assessed. Overall, the duration and coverage of these elevated conditions are short and limited, respectively. No highlights will be added this outlook. Another conditional concern will be a dry thunderstorm or two within the surface low in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. The probability of this occurring is less than 5%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Corn rootworm pressure was higher due to drought because there was not enough rain in early summer to drown the larvae. The affected area covered parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa. Yields may be affected. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Sept 6, 2023

The Mississippi River in downtown St. Paul was measured as the fourth lowest reading on record after a wet spring that caused worries about flooding. Minnehaha Creek was dry enough to be a walkable rock bed in places. The owner of a dock and lift business reported that many people have asked to have their lifts pulled out further and have docks extended. Some folks were already removing their boats from the water for the season where the water was shallow. CBS News Minnesota (Minneapolis), Sept 5, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Potential for locally damaging wind gusts and marginal hail will be possible across the Northeast, and southwestward into the Southeast. Gusty winds and hail may also occur locally over parts of the central and southern Plains and Arklatex area. ...Parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, and into the Southeast... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across the central Appalachians vicinity at the start of the period, ahead of a weak cold front moving eastward across the mountains and southeastward across the Southeast. As the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the day, additional/isolated storm development is expected along the entire extent of this front, from the lower Great Lakes and New England, to the Gulf Coast. At this time, somewhat more concentrated convective development is expected to evolve from the Mid-Atlantic States into New England, associated with a compact vort max progged to shift northeastward across this region during the afternoon and evening, in advance of the main short-wave trough to the west. Slightly stronger flow aloft and moderate instability may result in bands/clusters of storms capable of producing locally damaging winds, and marginally severe hail. Activity should peak in intensity through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing nocturnally. ...Parts of Oklahoma southeastward across the Arklatex... Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may develop across parts of Oklahoma/East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, in the vicinity of a surface baroclinic zone expected to lie across the area. A deep mixed layer may support potential for locally strong wind gusts across the Oklahoma portion of the outlook, through early evening. During the evening, southwesterly low-level jet development may support some increase in convective development, possibly clustering into a loosely organized MCS over the Arkansas vicinity, that would then shift southward toward Louisiana, possibly accompanied by limited/local wind/hail near severe levels. ...Central and eastern Nebraska vicinity... Afternoon heating/destabilization across the central Plains vicinity should support isolated convective development, ahead of weak mid-level short-wave troughing forecast to crest the ridge and shift east-southeastward across the area during the afternoon and evening. With a belt of 40 kt west-northwesterly flow around the periphery of the ridge possibly contributing to evolution of a couple of stronger/organized storms, limited local risk for gusty winds and marginal hail remains evident during the late afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss.. 09/06/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 6 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jova, located about 600 miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

The Berkeley County Public Service Water District asked its customers on Aug. 31 to conserve due to high temperatures and dry weather. A message from the district mentioned that there was less water available from the water source at the south end of the county, leading the district to draw more water from the Potomac River. However, the district’s ability to treat and distribute water was limited. The Panhandle News Network (Martinsburg, W.V.), Sept 6, 2023

The owner of a Christmas tree farm in Tangipahoa Parish announced on Facebook that the tree farm would not open for the 2023 season nor would photographers be allowed to take photos. Pictures showing entirely brown trees were also shared on the post. WBRZ (New Orleans, La.), Sept 6, 2023

The splash pad in Henderson Park in Brenham closed early on Sept. 6 for the season, instead of at the end of September, due to drought and high demand on the water treatment plant. In July, splash pad hours were shortened due to the drought. KBTX (Bryan, Texas), Sept 5, 2023

A late March freeze killed many honey bee populations in Louisiana and also the plants for pollination and honey production. Drought has continued to present challenges for honey bees as plants were not growing or blooming. Bee farmers were even hauling water to some locations that have never gone dry before this. The heat, absence of water and scarcity of pollinating plants has dropped honey production on a Deville honey farm by 65%, but overhead costs for honey production, like water, feed supplements and fuel, have increased. The fire risk and concern about the danger has kept them from mowing, driving trucks onto lots or smoking out the bees. The beekeeper will send more hives to California to offset the honey losses, but he’d prefer not to. KALB-TV (Alexandria, La.), Aug 30, 2023

Firefighters in Louisiana battled more than 500 large fires across the state, which is comparable to the normal number of fires in an entire year. More than 50,000 acres, or about 75 square miles of property, have burned statewide. Much of the burned area was forest land. The statewide burn ban remained in effect. FOX 8 (New Orleans, La.), Aug 30, 2023

Ponds on a horse ranch near Winnie have dried up for the first time that a 79-year-old rancher can remember. The ponds were being cleaned out to improve the capacity of the ponds when the rain does return. In the meantime, he waters livestock with tubs and buckets of water. The water bill has doubled amid the drought as he waters the animals with city water. Drought has also caused a decrease in forage production. Hay production was insufficient for the coming winter so livestock were being sold or transferred to better pasture in another state for the winter. Area ranchers were also turning to a program that offers financial support to offset costs for feed, hay or water to help sustain the cattle. The producer already sold his calves to lower stress on the cows as the suckling requires extra nutrients. Beaumont Enterprise (Texas), Aug 27, 2023

Blue Hole Regional Park in Wimberley will be closed for the rest of the summer due to low water levels that were not safe for swimming. Austin American-Statesman (Texas), Aug 31, 2023 Blue Hole in Wimberley was closed to swimming for the next two weeks, starting Aug. 22, due to low water levels that pose a safety concern. Conditions will be reassessed in two weeks to determine whether Blue Hole could reopen. Jacob’s Well, also in Wimberley, was closed due to no water flow. Austin American-Statesman (Texas), Aug 22, 2023

Temperatures remained extremely high and dry in North Texas. The heat has led to stressed plants across the region. Some trees started to show significant drought stress, especially elms, honey locusts, maples and hackberry. Summer grasses were still declining. Many small creeks dried up entirely due to the extreme heat and no rainfall. Corn and grain sorghum were nearing harvest completion, and the soybean harvest was completed. Many bean fields were being rolled up for hay. Nuisance flies and tabanid flies were still active. Livestock conditions were good and continuing to improve. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 North Texas pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good, and topsoil was very short to short in most counties. Temperatures ranged from 100-110 degrees, resulting in burn ban warnings and signs of severe drought. The hot, dry conditions were starting to speed crop maturity and slow grass growth. Many counties needed moisture. Soybeans looked heat stressed. Forage and hay fields were beginning to show heat stress as well. Cattle and other livestock were in good condition, but most were consuming a considerable amount of water to stay cool. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 15, 2023 North Texas pastures and rangeland were good to fair for most of the counties. Both subsoil and topsoil moisture were reported to be adequate to short for most of the counties. Temperatures remained in the triple digits over the past week and the region was in need of rain. Grass stands were severely declining. Pastures were becoming a little stressed due to excessive heat. A few counties started cutting corn for silage and it was yielding well. Overall, the production looked good but needed rain soon. Harvest is expected in August. Grasshopper populations were extremely high and increasing. A good amount of hay was harvested in a few counties. No major insect or disease outbreaks occurred during these times. Livestock conditions were looking good and continuing to improve. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Aug 1, 2023