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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES REGION...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential (mainly gusts and hail) appears most concentrated today over parts of the northern High Plains/Rockies region, central Plains, and parts of the Ohio Valley to Carolinas. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will be dominated by troughing offshore from the West Coast, with a cyclone offshore from the Pacific Northwest, mean ridging from the Gulf Coast states across the central/northern Rockies, and belt of west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow from the mid/upper Mississippi Valley to the coastal Carolinas and Tidewater regions. The following shortwave troughs influencing convective potential were evident in moisture- channel imagery. 1. Western/central NV, forecast to move northeastward to eastern ID and western MT by 00Z, through the mean ridge position, then pivoting eastward to eastern MT with some convective reinforcement overnight. 2. Western parts of CO/NM, forecast to pivot northeastward and eastward, also through the mean ridge, then across the central Plains by 12Z tomorrow. 3. Southern Lower MI, northwestern IN and IL, convectively reinforced by the previous day's severe MCS, with an MCV apparent near the southern end of Lake Michigan. This feature should move southeastward to WV by 00Z, the over parts of VA and the Carolinas by 12Z. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a wavy, slow-moving cold front, with several weak lows attached, from southeastern NY across northern portions of OH/IN/IL to central/southwestern KS. Most of the front east of the Mississippi River should sag southward through the period, while a low initially near DDC moves slowly toward central KS along the boundary. Several outflow boundaries from earlier MCS activity also exist south of the front over the Ohio Valley States. ...Northern High Plains/Rockies region... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop initially over higher terrain of western/southern MT and northeastern WY this afternoon, where diabatic heating and orographic lift will weaken and overcome MLCINH first, beneath increasing large-scale ascent related to the approaching perturbation. Resulting convection should move east-northeastward to eastward over the nearby northern High Plains this afternoon and evening, offering occasional severe hail and gusts, with isolated significant severe possible. A roughly zonal corridor of relatively maximized moisture/theta-e will be in place over eastern and central MT into western SD, with dewpoints commonly in the 50s over western areas to mid 60s in the east by around 00Z. In tandem with diurnal surface heating and steep low/middle-level lapse rates, corridor of MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg should develop. Strong veering of flow with height will offset modest low/midlevel wind speeds enough to yield effective-shear magnitudes commonly in the 35-45-kt range, supporting both supercells and organized multicells (including bowing structures). Some clustering and related, localized cold-pool growth may occur for a few hours to support wind potential into the evening. The severe threat should diminish with time tonight as both ambient/antecedent MLCINH from the EML base, and nocturnal surface cooling, become increasingly hostile to convective growth. ...Central Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop from midday into this afternoon over the foothills, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide, then move eastward over the adjoining High Plains. Severe hail and gusts are possible. Some of this activity may coalesce into a forward-propagational thunderstorm cluster this evening into tonight. Strong diurnal surface heating of the higher elevations will erode MLCINH quickly today, amidst favorable moisture (with surface dew points commonly in the 50s to low 60s F and areas of 1.25-1.5-inch PW). Being removed from the stronger mid/upper winds aloft, deep shear will be limited, though strong veering with height of weak low-level flow will exist to support 30-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. Peak/preconvective MLCAPE should range from around 1000 J/kg near the foothills to around 2000 J/kg near the latitude of the eastern border of CO. Well-mixed subcloud layers will support gust potential. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley to Carolinas... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon along any of several plausible foci: higher terrain in the Appalachians, the prefrontal/lee-side surface trough, sea breezes, and outflow/differential-heating boundaries from antecedent/ongoing convection. This includes boundaries related to non-severe convection now crossing portions of WV and OH. Thunderstorm coverage should increase through the afternoon, with a few clusters potentially aggregating upscale and offering concentrations of damaging winds. Isolated large hail also is possible. The air mass along and south of the composite front/outflow boundary will remain richly moist, with lower-elevation dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to mid-70s F, and strong diurnal heating. These factors should offset modest midlevel lapse rates enough to contribute to MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range over most of the area, with 2000-3000 J/kg possible over parts of the Ohio Valley region not substantially altered by prior convection. With the area displaced south of strong mid/upper-level winds, vertical shear generally will be weak, with small hodographs and effective-shear magnitudes. As such, the dominant mode should be multicellular and clustered, with activity moving generally southeastward amidst difluent/northwesterly mid/upper-level winds. ..Edwards/Goss.. 07/06/2022 Read more

An apple orchard in Nancy lost five to ten trees in the past couple weeks, largely due to heat, stated the owner. The trees also need rain to produce juicy apples. LEX 18 (Lexington, Ky.), July 5, 2022

While prussic acid poisoning is usually a concern in the fall after a frost, problems can also arise in forages during intense drought. Sorghum species, including johnsongrass, can be deadly for livestock due to the prussic acid, also known as hydrocyanic acid or cyanide. Some cattle operations in parts of Oklahoma have encountered this recently. When the stressed forage is consumed by cattle, the prussic acid is absorbed into the bloodstream and prevents cells from taking up oxygen. Hay & Forage Grower (Fort Atkinson, Wis.), June 28, 2022

 Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) received a request for assistance on a fire in Eastland County off of County Road 229-P close to the Callahan county line approximately 10 miles northeast of Cross Plains. TAMFS is currently working in unified command with local responders, dozers from Brownwood and engine crews from Merkel are currently constructing fire containment line and performing structure protection. The fire was showing extreme behavior with single tree torching and making short crown runs, but has moderated with improving weather conditions as the evening sets

 The Sparkling Fallen Fire started late on the night of July 4th in Taylor County off of Spinks Road approximately 2 miles northwest of Abilene. Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) was requested early in the morning of July 5th and responded with two dozers and two brush truck engines and had the fire contained by noon at 26 acres. Due to high winds and triple digit temperatures, the fire has broken containment and made a push to the North. TAMFS is currently working in unified command with local responders with additional dozers, motor grader and additional engine crews, air craft are being utilized as well, making retardant drops to slow the head of the fire allowing crews to get ahead of

Some Texas communities prohibited the sale and use of fireworks, due to dry conditions, while others stayed the course and lit the fireworks. A number of cities, in addition to starting their fireworks display, also accidentally started fires. The Fort Worth display, shot from Panther Island, went for a few minutes before the city canceled the event as fire spread on the banks of the Trinity River. Just 30 minutes to the west, the Hudson Oaks’ Boomin’ Fourth display turned to flames within 30 seconds. In San Antonio, fireworks, unfortunately, ignited a couple of homes, displacing two families. There were grass fires galore in some communities, such as Fort Worth, where firefighters responded to 189 calls by 11:30 p.m. Texas Monthly (Austin), July 5, 2022

Austin firefighters received more than 130 fire reports on July 4 as drought continues to intensify in the state. KVUE News Online (Austin, Texas), July 5, 2022

The Midnight Fire began June 9, approximately eight miles northeast of El Rito (Rio Arriba County), New Mexico, on the El Rito Ranger District of the Carson National Forest. The fire was caused by lightning from a passing storm. Full containment was declared on July 1,

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located a couple of hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico.

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the
southern coast of Mexico toward the end of the week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
of this system over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

MD 1377 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Areas affected...Far southwestern Ohio...Eastern Kentucky into southwestern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051715Z - 051915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms in eastern Kentucky into southwest Virginia will continue to move into a increasingly buoyant, but decreasingly sheared, airmass this afternoon. Wind damage will be possible with water-loaded downdrafts. A watch is possible should convective trends in cold-pool organization warrant. DISCUSSION...Outflow from an MCS that moved through Ohio overnight yesterday continues to push southward into the southern Appalachians region. A very moist airmass (70+ F dewpoints) has warmed into the low 90s in eastern Kentucky with slightly lower temperatures to the east. With time, continued heating should support an increase in damaging wind potential. A secondary outflow push is also evident on regional MRMS radar. This could produce an increase in storm coverage/intensity as it interacts with storms farther to the south. However, overall organization is not expected to be high given the southward movement away from greater deep-layer shear. A watch is possible should an area of greater cold-pool organization develop this afternoon. Trends will be monitored. ..Wendt/Grams.. 07/05/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 36608158 37228439 37518490 37738520 38498512 39308480 39468436 39298400 38798327 38208185 38128092 38198017 38127976 37837949 37517945 37048018 36648152 36608158 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MONTANA...AND FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday from parts of the northern/central Rockies/Plains into from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Carolinas. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats. ...MT into the western Dakotas... Height rises will occur over the region during the day, with ridge axis over central MT/WY at 00Z. At the surface, a ridge will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into the northern Plains, resulting in weak east/southeast surface winds. The air mass will remain sufficiently moist with dewpoints near 60 F over eastern MT, resulting in strong instability when combined with heating and steep lapse rates aloft. Storms are expected to form after 21Z over west-central MT, moving into northern MT by late evening. Additional diurnal activity is likely over northern/eastern WY where the moist air mass will become uncapped and where weak upslope will contribute to ascent. Low-level flow will be weak, but better mid and high level winds may yield some organization potential with outflow-driven clusters or lines producing damaging wind and hail. ...IN/OH/KY into the Carolinas... A modest northwest flow regime will exist across the region with mid and high-level winds around 30 kt. At the surface, an east-west oriented cold front will sink south across IL/IN/OH with high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes. Farther east, a weak surface trough will redevelop from eastern VA into the central Carolinas. Both of these features will provide low-level convergence and lift for a diurnal thunderstorm threat. A few lingering storms are possible Wednesday morning from northern IL into OH, as MLCAPE will be strong and the moist air mass uncapped. This activity could produce a few strong wind gusts or small hail early. The primary risk will develop after 18Z when heating contributes to stronger instability. One or more clusters of southeastward-moving storms will be possible, producing severe gusts and isolated hail. Farther east, storms should be most numerous after 18Z from northern GA into the Carolinas, with moist and tall CAPE profiles favoring locally severe downbursts. Strong heating will also favor vigorous pulsing updrafts capable of hail. Storm coverage from WV into VA is more questionable as some models indicate a bit of drying from the northwest, also reflected in lower HREF thunder probabilities. Isolated strong wind gusts appear most probable over these areas. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA... CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRIDDED SIG HAIL ...SUMMARY... A derecho with embedded significant severe wind gusts appears probable from central to eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northern Iowa into this evening. ...SD to IA and southern MN... An intense cluster over central SD will likely persist east-southeast across southeast SD. This should evolve into a forward-propagating linear MCS, expanding in latitudinal extent as MLCIN further diminishes ahead of it. A large MLCAPE reservoir in excess of 3000 J/kg across southern SD/MN and northern IA will support potential for embedded significant severe wind gusts exceeding 75 kts. While the majority of CAM guidance appears to be egregiously poor (especially the HRW-FV3) with handling the conceptual model for this event, the 12Z HRW-ARW and NSSL are in the ballpark and suggest bowing linear segments will be maintained into southern MN and northern IA before weakening this evening. ...Central/eastern MT to western ND... Air mass recovery is underway across central to eastern MT in the wake of the intense MCS over northwest SD. Residual 50s to low 60s surface dew points in conjunction with pockets of pronounced boundary-layer heating will yield MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. With 45-55 kt effective bulk shear, at least a few supercells are expected from central to northeast MT during the late afternoon and evening with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts as the primary threats. Some of these cells should consolidate into a cluster that spreads into western ND during the evening. Overall intensity should decrease as activity impinges on the more stable air mass left in the wake of the SD MCS. ...Mid-Atlantic to Midwest... Poor mid-level lapse rates were evident in 12Z observed soundings east of the Appalachians and this will be the main limiting factor to more intense convective development. An MCV over western PA will move east towards the NJ coast, with scattered thunderstorms near and to its south. With 30-40 kt 700-mb westerlies impinging on the region attendant to this MCV and the boundary-layer destabilizing from south to north, an increase in strong gust potential should occur from VA into the Lower DE Valley. Arcing convective bands extend west of the lead MCV across WV and OH/IN. This activity will likely persist through the rest of the afternoon into this evening, building south-southwest in time towards large buoyancy centered on the Lower OH Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear will be further offset as this process occurs, suggesting that loosely organized clusters will dominate with strong to isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Additional multicell clusters will probably form northwest along the baroclinic zone near the IA/IL/WI border area during the late afternoon into the evening. These will similarly pose a threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail, although the spatial extent of this threat will likely be limited by this morning's stabilization in OH. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/05/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly southward into southern NV and far northwest AZ based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance. Along the western periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of central UT this afternoon, and a lightning-induced ignition or two cannot be ruled out given near-critical to locally critical fuels. However, this activity looks too isolated/marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will remain in place across the central CONUS as a broad mid-level trough persists over the Interior West today. Broad surface lee troughing across the Great Basin will support Elevated dry and windy conditions by afternoon. Surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies may also support a localized, brief wildfire-spread threat over portions of the southern Plains, where fuel ERCs are forecast to rise into the 80th-90th percentile range. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2022 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Southeast South Dakota Southwest Minnesota Northwest Iowa * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A derecho with embedded significant severe wind gusts appears probable from central to eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northern Iowa into this evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 07/05/2022 $$ Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PIR TO 35 NNE PIR TO 30 SSE MBG. ..KERR..07/05/22 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-011-015-017-023-025-029-035-039-043-045-049-053-057- 059-061-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-085-087-095-097-107-111- 115-117-119-121-123-129-051740- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BROOKINGS BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX CLARK CODINGTON DAVISON DEUEL DOUGLAS EDMUNDS FAULK GREGORY HAMLIN HAND HANSON HUGHES HUTCHINSON HYDE JACKSON JERAULD JONES KINGSBURY LAKE LYMAN MCCOOK MELLETTE MINER POTTER SANBORN SPINK STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 436 SEVERE TSTM SD 051435Z - 052100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 935 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central to eastern South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 935 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Intense cluster in northwest South Dakota will likely expand in coverage across central to eastern South Dakota. Embedded bowing linear segments will be conducive to producing significant severe wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Chamberlain SD to 55 miles north of Huron SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 435... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW PIR TO 45 NW PIR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 435 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05/17Z. ..KERR..07/05/22 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC041-051700- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEWEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Jul 2022 14:38:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Jul 2022 15:22:52 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051437 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Earlier microwave images reveal a well-developed inner core structure with a 10-nm-wide eye, and impressive curved band features in the west and south parts of the cyclone. The surrounding cloud tops have cooled quite a bit during the past few hours, but the eye temperature hasn't warmed that much. The initial intensity is increased to 100 kt for this advisory and is supported by a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. It appears as though modest northeasterly shear has begun to restrict the outflow some in the north portion of the cyclone, and this shear is expected to persist during the next 24 hours. Consequently, some fluctuations in strength are possible during the period and the NHC forecast shows a slight increase in intensity in 12 hours in deference to the recent inner core improvement. Afterward, the inhibiting shear should decrease, however,the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS intensity models show the cyclone traversing cooler oceanic surface temperatures and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic surrounding environment. A combination of these negative intensity contributions should cause Bonnie to slowly weaken through the remainder of the period and the official forecast follows suit. Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/12 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone should keep it on a west to west-northwest heading through the entire forecast period. Around mid-period, however, a weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop over the Baja California peninsula, which should temporarily slow Bonnie's forward speed. The track forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond day 3 and is based on the TVCE multi-model consensus aid. Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.3N 104.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 16.3N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 17.4N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 18.2N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 20.4N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 051434 PWSEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 105W 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 105W 64 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 17(18) 48(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 15N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 50(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20(31) 1(32) X(32) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) X(25) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 28(48) X(48) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 8(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS