SPC Jun 27, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 years ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0724 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for severe thunderstorms will remain quite low through tonight. ...New England to the Carolinas today... A midlevel shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will move eastward over New England through tonight, along with an associated surface cold front. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s across New England and low 70s across the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic will precede the cold front today, but clouds will slow surface heating and midlevel lapse rates will be poor, which will limit buoyancy and downdraft potential. Vertical shear will also remain rather modest in the warm sector across New England and will be very weak farther south toward the Carolinas, which suggests that the threat for severe storms appears too low for any outlook areas. ...South TX this afternoon... The trailing cold front will continue to sag southward to near the Gulf Coast, aided on the mesoscale by outflow with convection. Gusty outflow winds will be possible from the middle TX coastal plain into south central TX with storms along the front this afternoon, in conjunction with steep low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. However, storms will tend to remain pulse-like in nature and the threat for severe/damaging outflow winds appears too low to add 5% wind probabilities. ...Eastern SD into MN through tonight... Low-level moisture is limited in the wake of the Great Lakes midlevel trough and associated cold frontal passage. An upstream shortwave trough over SK/MB will progress southeastward toward northeast ND/northern MN overnight, and will be accompanied by a reinforcing cold front. Prior to the next frontal passage, some local moistening will occur through evapotranspiration, but this moisture will tend to get redistributed upward through mixing this afternoon. This will leave rather modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg), driven mainly by surface heating and cool midlevel temperatures (near -17 C at 500 mb). The threat for thunderstorm development during the day will be limited by the poor moisture and (at best) weak forcing for ascent. Ascent will increase some early tonight with the approach of the SK/MB shortwave trough/cold front, and with warm advection on the nose of a weak low-level jet from eastern SD into southwestern MN. With the majority of the convection likely to be elevated tonight in a weakly buoyant regime, the threat for severe storms appears too low for any wind/hail probability areas. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/27/2022 Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

3 years ago

265
ABPZ20 KNHC 271122
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles offshore of the coasts
of Guatemala and southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support
some gradual development of this disturbance during the next
several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NHC Webmaster

Mormon cricket and grasshopper outbreak in Oregon, other Western states

3 years ago
Mormon crickets and grasshoppers abound again this year from Oregon to Montana to Arizona as drought and warming temperatures favor the outbreak. A chemical treatment can prevent the Mormon cricket nymphs from becoming adults if used early. In 2021, the Oregon Legislature allocated $5 million to evaluate the issue and create a suppression program. Another $1.2 million was approved for the program earlier this June. Associated Press News (New York), June 26, 2022

Pineland Drive Fire (Wildfire)

3 years ago
The Pineland Drive Fire started June 25, 2022 approximately 6 miles northeast of Trinity, Texas. Underlying drought, critical fuel dryness, and elevated to critical fire weather combined to produce a fire environment supportive of increased fire activity. Active fire behavior and group torching have been observed.Flight detection reported the fire at 1:41 pm and multiple local fire departments and state resources, including Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) and Texas Department of Transportation, are assisting in suppression efforts. An aviation resource was ordered to assist. TAMFS is in unified command. A road closure on TX HWY 94 was put in place at 5:32PM this afternoon between Trinity and Glendale Tx. The closure has since been

SPC Jun 26, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 years ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A risk for organized severe thunderstorms is not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will be maintained over much of the western U.S. on Monday, except across the Pacific Northwest, where an upper low is forecast to approach the coast by the end of the period. Meanwhile, an upper trough will be maintained over the eastern U.S. as a series of shortwave troughs embedded in larger-scale flow migrate across the Great Lakes, and into western Ontario. Stronger mid/upper level flow will remain confined to the U.S./Canadian border vicinity near the northwestern upper low and the Great Lakes trough. At the surface, high pressure initially centered over the central/southern Plains will develop eastward into the Midwest/Ohio Valley. A cold front will stretch from central PA/NY into the VA/Carolinas Piedmont vicinity then into the lower MS valley and central TX. The front will slowly progress eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast, while mostly stalling across the Southeast and TX. A seasonally moist airmass will reside ahead of the front from TX into the Mid-Atlantic. Midlevel lapse rates will generally remain modest, but areas of strong heating will allow pockets of moderate destabilization to develop from central TX into MS/AL, as well as along portions of the VA/NC/SC Piedmont. Weak deep-layer flow/vertical shear will preclude longevity/organization of any stronger updrafts. However, PW values near or above the 90th percentile and steep low-level lapse rates could support sporadic wet microbursts with locally gusty winds ahead of the front across a large area from central TX into MS/AL and the NC/VA Piedmont. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 years ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z Minimal changes have been made to the current outlook for the latest hi-res guidance/morning observations. Isolated and mostly dry thunderstorms will support lightning within areas of dry fuels across the Great Basin and northern parts of the Western Slope. To the south and east, scattered to widespread wetting storms are possible, limiting the dry thunder risk. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across portions of southern Oregon, though confidence in storm coverage is low. See the prior discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 06/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will prevail across much of the central and southern U.S. today, resulting in relatively weak surface wind field (and associated fire weather conditions) across much of the CONUS. However, mid-level moisture will continue to linger across much of the Interior West, fueling isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating. While the storms will be slow moving/occasionally wet, some of the storms may produce lightning over patchy but critically dry fuel beds, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 years ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z Minimal changes have been made to the current outlook for the latest hi-res guidance/morning observations. Isolated and mostly dry thunderstorms will support lightning within areas of dry fuels across the Great Basin and northern parts of the Western Slope. To the south and east, scattered to widespread wetting storms are possible, limiting the dry thunder risk. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across portions of southern Oregon, though confidence in storm coverage is low. See the prior discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 06/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will prevail across much of the central and southern U.S. today, resulting in relatively weak surface wind field (and associated fire weather conditions) across much of the CONUS. However, mid-level moisture will continue to linger across much of the Interior West, fueling isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating. While the storms will be slow moving/occasionally wet, some of the storms may produce lightning over patchy but critically dry fuel beds, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jun 26, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 years ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE UPPER OHIO TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon from the Mid South to the upper Ohio Valley, and over southwest Arizona. ...ArkLaMiss to upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from eastern OH into parts of KY/TN and MS/LA. A corridor of rich low-level moisture and strong CAPE lies along the front, where isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are forecast. Winds aloft along this entire zone are relatively weak. This, combined with poor mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the overall severe threat quite limited. However, the potential exists for pulse and disorganized multicell storms to produce locally damaging wind gusts today across the MRGL risk area. This threat should diminish quickly after sunset. Refer to MCD #1296 for short-term details on parts of the area. ...AZ... Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s will yield moderately unstable air mass over much of central and western AZ today. Sufficient mid-level moisture is expected to produce scattered high-based thunderstorms capable of localized gusty/damaging wind gusts. Weak winds aloft should limit convective organization. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/26/2022 Read more

SPC Jun 26, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 years ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE UPPER OHIO TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon from the Mid South to the upper Ohio Valley, and over southwest Arizona. ...ArkLaMiss to upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from eastern OH into parts of KY/TN and MS/LA. A corridor of rich low-level moisture and strong CAPE lies along the front, where isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are forecast. Winds aloft along this entire zone are relatively weak. This, combined with poor mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the overall severe threat quite limited. However, the potential exists for pulse and disorganized multicell storms to produce locally damaging wind gusts today across the MRGL risk area. This threat should diminish quickly after sunset. Refer to MCD #1296 for short-term details on parts of the area. ...AZ... Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s will yield moderately unstable air mass over much of central and western AZ today. Sufficient mid-level moisture is expected to produce scattered high-based thunderstorms capable of localized gusty/damaging wind gusts. Weak winds aloft should limit convective organization. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/26/2022 Read more

SPC MD 1296

3 years ago
MD 1296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...WEST KENTUCKY...AND FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Areas affected...southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas...northwest Tennessee...west Kentucky...and far southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261508Z - 261715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will persist this morning. Marginally severe hail and wind will be possible in the strongest thunderstorms. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A long-lived thunderstorm cluster continues to move east-southeast this morning across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley. Additional thunderstorms are developing ahead of this approaching thunderstorm cluster. As these thunderstorms move into or develop within an axis of greater instability stretching from central Arkansas northeast into southeast Missouri, episodic upticks in updraft intensity may occur. As such, thunderstorms may briefly be capable of marginally severe hail and wind, and recent MRMS trends suggest a thunderstorm across Wayne County, Missouri may be capable of hail around 1 inch. Weak deep-layer and effective-layer shear -- as indicated by the circular nature the developing anvils -- should limit the the severe potential to short temporal and small spatial scales, driven primarily by storm-scale processes. A watch is currently not anticipated. ..Marsh/Hart.. 06/26/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36909127 37829024 38348909 37828778 37008687 35478685 34528790 34328918 34639073 35299134 36909127 Read more

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion Number 40

3 years ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 This morning's satellite presentation shows very little change in Celia's cloud pattern. However, the cloud tops associated with the deep convection are beginning to warm. The latest AMSR2 microwave revealed a symmetric cyclone with an eye-like feature in the low-frequency band. Therefore, the initial intensity is conservatively held at 45 kt and is supported by a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Celia should gradually weaken while it moves into a stable and dry surrounding atmosphere, and over cooler oceanic surface temperatures. Accordingly, Celia is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Monday and dissipate toward the end of the week, and this scenario is in agreement with the latest statistical and dynamical intensity guidance. Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/6 kt, just a little bit to the left of the previous advisory motion. The forecast track philosophy remains the same. A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the eastern North Pacific should steer the cyclone on a continued west-northwestward course through the forecast period. The official NHC forecast is based on the various tightly clustered consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 19.5N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 21.1N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 23.2N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Celia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40

3 years ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 261433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 115W 34 49 23(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 20N 115W 50 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Celia Public Advisory Number 40

3 years ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 261433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 ...CELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 113.7W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 113.7 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Advisory Number 40

3 years ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 261433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.7W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.7W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 116.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.1N 118.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.2N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 113.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
NHC Webmaster

SPC Jun 26, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 years ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon from the Mid South to the upper Ohio Valley. ...Mid South to the upper OH Valley this afternoon... A midlevel shortwave trough will move east-southeastward from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, while an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across the OH Valley and southward into the southern Plains. Convection has been ongoing overnight to the cool side of the boundary across the southern Plains, and just ahead of the front across southern IL. Outflow with the ongoing MO/IL storms will push the effective front southward into the Mid South this afternoon, providing a focus for renewed thunderstorm development. Farther northeast into the OH Valley, a possibly differential heating zone may provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon, modulated by how quickly morning clouds/convection diminish. Vertical shear will remain weak throughout the warm sector ahead of the cold front, and thermodynamic profiles will be a little more favorable for pulse-type downbursts with southwestward extent toward the Mid South. Overall, the threat for damaging winds should remain rather on the lower margins of an outlook area, and mainly be focused from mid-late afternoon. ...TX into the Southwest this afternoon/evening... Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along the cold front this afternoon/evening from west central into north TX. Gusty outflow winds will be possible in the deeply mixed environment with hot surface temperatures, but the threat for severe outflow winds appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, the monsoon will persist across the southern Rockies, with relatively cool temperatures and widespread clouds across much of NM. On the western part of the monsoonal moisture plume, scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain from southeast AZ northwestward along the Mogollon Rim. Steering flow off the high terrain will be weak at best, though very isolated strong-severe outflow winds may occur with the strongest storms resulting from outflow collisions. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/26/2022 Read more

SPC Jun 26, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 years ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon from the Mid South to the upper Ohio Valley. ...Mid South to the upper OH Valley this afternoon... A midlevel shortwave trough will move east-southeastward from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, while an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across the OH Valley and southward into the southern Plains. Convection has been ongoing overnight to the cool side of the boundary across the southern Plains, and just ahead of the front across southern IL. Outflow with the ongoing MO/IL storms will push the effective front southward into the Mid South this afternoon, providing a focus for renewed thunderstorm development. Farther northeast into the OH Valley, a possibly differential heating zone may provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon, modulated by how quickly morning clouds/convection diminish. Vertical shear will remain weak throughout the warm sector ahead of the cold front, and thermodynamic profiles will be a little more favorable for pulse-type downbursts with southwestward extent toward the Mid South. Overall, the threat for damaging winds should remain rather on the lower margins of an outlook area, and mainly be focused from mid-late afternoon. ...TX into the Southwest this afternoon/evening... Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along the cold front this afternoon/evening from west central into north TX. Gusty outflow winds will be possible in the deeply mixed environment with hot surface temperatures, but the threat for severe outflow winds appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, the monsoon will persist across the southern Rockies, with relatively cool temperatures and widespread clouds across much of NM. On the western part of the monsoonal moisture plume, scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain from southeast AZ northwestward along the Mogollon Rim. Steering flow off the high terrain will be weak at best, though very isolated strong-severe outflow winds may occur with the strongest storms resulting from outflow collisions. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/26/2022 Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

3 years ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system thereafter as it moves generally westward-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster