SPC Jun 28, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 years ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA...AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the upper Midwest and Montana this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will feature a large, complex cyclone over central/eastern Arctic Canada and Hudson Bay. In the southwest fringes of the related flow, a shortwave trough is evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern portions of SK/MB. This feature should move southeastward across northern/central MN to Lake Superior and parts of WI by 00Z, then pivot eastward over parts of ON tonight. Meanwhile, a synoptic ridge now over the northern Rockies and Great Basin will shift eastward ahead of a progressive cyclone currently situated offshore from the Pacific Northwest. The associated 500-mb low should reach southwestern mainland BC by 00Z, then pivot eastward to the Canadian Rockies near Banff by 12Z. At the surface, a wavy cold front related partly to the SK/MB shortwave trough was analyzed at 11Z this morning from far northern ON through a low near Thunder Bay, then across northern MN, eastern SD, and the NE Panhandle. By 00Z, the front should reach northeastern ON, eastern Upper MI, north-central WI, western IA, south-central NE, northeastern WY, and central/south-central MT. By 12Z tomorrow, the front should extend from southwestern QC across Lake Huron, Lower MI, southern WI, becoming a warm front over northeastern NE, western SD, and eastern MT as height falls ahead of the northwestern mid/upper cyclone cross the northern Rockies. A low-level cold front related to the latter perturbation should cross the northern Rockies today, reaching east-central MT and southeastern ID by 12Z. ...WI and vicinity... An area of clouds and precip -- with widely scattered to isolated embedded/non-severe thunderstorms -- is apparent in satellite and radar-reflectivity imagery this morning across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley region. This activity is expected to proceed eastward to east-southeastward across the region, following an eastward-shifting LLJ with veering orientation. This will delay but not prohibitively limit destabilization supporting later, surface-based convective/severe potential. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along/ahead of the front, including a southward-directed/lake- reinforced boundary south of Lake Superior. Given the lack of substantial EML and the DCVA/large-scale lift ahead of the shortwave trough, only weak MLCINH is expected, as reasonably evident in forecast soundings over the area. The boundary layer is expected to destabilize favorably from a combination of diurnal heating (in a narrow corridor behind the earlier clouds/convection) and low-level warm advection supported by moist southwesterly flow. Moisture yielding mid-50s to near 60 F surface dew points will contribute to peak MLCAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg (locally/briefly greater). Veered and modest near-surface winds will limit hodograph size and SRH. Still, strong mid/upper winds should contribute to effective- shear magnitudes of 35-40 kt, supporting a blend of organized multicell and episodic supercell characteristics. Strong-severe gusts and large hail are possible, with tornado potential more isolated, conditional on low-predictability storm-scale effects and boundary interactions. Overall convective coverage/intensity should diminish during mid/late evening. ...MT... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon near and ahead of the cold front, with severe gusts becoming the main concern. Activity should develop in a field of overlaid DCVA/cooling aloft, low-level warm advection along/ southeast of the warm front, and diabatic heating to yield a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Though buoyancy mostly will be low (MLCAPE generally under 500 J/kg, but locally approaching 1000 J/kg in northern parts), strengthening flow aloft and large DCAPE related to the well-mixed subcloud layer will promote downdraft acceleration and downward momentum transfer. Increasing flow aloft also will strengthen deep shear, particularly over northern/western portions of the area farther from the mid/upper-level ridge. Effective-shear magnitudes of 40-45 kt are possible over parts of west-central/ northwestern MT near the front. ..Edwards/Goss.. 06/28/2022 Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

3 years ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281153
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Depression Celia, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A small but well-defined area of low pressure is centered a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Thunderstorm
activity associated with the low has increased during the past
several hours but remains somewhat disorganized. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for gradual
development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression
could form within the next few days while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Stressed trees need care in San Antonio, Texas

3 years ago
San Antonio’s trees are displaying signs of heat and drought stress after months with little rain. Last year’s light rains did not bring enough moisture for deep-rooted trees. Some trees are toppling over, while others are losing leaves. People are encouraged to deeply water their trees. KENS 5 (San Antonio, Texas), June 27, 2022

Raspberry Fire (Wildfire)

3 years ago
The Raspberry Fire that was reported on June 14, 2022, at 11:51 AM in the Chiricahua Wilderness, Douglas Ranger District. fire received soaking rain throughout the night on June 18, 2022,  with more anticipated throughout the day. Along with the rain came lightning. The fire is currently under the leadership of the local Type 4 Incident Management Organization.  The team is prepared to respond to any Initial Attack (IA) needs in the area should they arise from the lightning. Acreage has been adjusted to 420 acres, but still within the same footprint.     This will be the final update unless significant events occur. For more information about the Coronado Nation Forest please follow them on Facebook or go to website at www.fs.usda.gov/coronado .  

Archer Fire (Wildfire)

3 years ago
The Archer Fire is located approximately 6 miles NW of Round Mountain, TX. The fire began on June 24th, and the Texas A&M Forest Service began unified command with locals after 7pm on the 24th. The fire is burning in rough terrain, making access with heavy equipment slow. Crews will use heavy equipment, engines, and aviation resources to construct fire containment lines until the fire reaches 100% containment.

Water conservation in southeast Massachusetts

3 years ago
Dry conditions have led to more communities adopting water conservation in the southeastern part of the state. Restrictions were in effect for Attleboro, North Attleboro, Foxboro, Mansfield, Norfolk, Norton, Plainville, Seekonk and Wrentham. Some of these towns have year-round water restrictions, while others enacted them due to drought. The Sun Chronicle (Attleboro, Mass.), June 26, 2022

Drought harming corn in North Carolina

3 years ago
Heat and drought were affecting crops in North Carolina. Cornfields in Union County are brown and withered, due to drought, while heat took a toll on the cornstalks, stated a farmer. He also noted that soybeans were difficult to plant for lack of moisture. The high price of fertilizer, liquid nitrogen and other farm chemicals added to farmers’ stress. WUNC (Chapel Hill, N.C.), June 27, 2022

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 years ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... With another day of scattered thunderstorms expected across the Great Basin and Western Slope, lightning will remain possible over patchy receptive fuels intermixed with much wetter areas. Area gauges have shown steady accumulation over the last several days, with a significant gradient in precipitation within the higher terrain. Model soundings continue to show profiles marginally supportive of isolated dry strikes with PWATs ranging from 0.5 to 0.9 inches, and mixed-layer LCLs of 6-9k feet AGL. Given scattered storm coverage across much of AZ and CO, confidence on the coverage of drier storms (especially south and east) is low. However, the coverage of lightning is likely sufficient to support a risk for wet/dry flashes within patchy receptive fuels. Areas of AZ and CO were removed from the IsoDryT area to better capture the greatest risk for more Isolated dry lightning. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid, see below for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will dominate the interior West as a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast today. Upper forcing associated with the approaching trough will encourage dry and windy conditions over and to the lee of the southern Cascades/northern Sierra, with Elevated highlights introduced given the presence of modestly dry fuels. Mid-level moisture will meander over the eastern Great Basin into the Four Corners, with isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development expected with the onset of diurnal heating. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been issued since thunderstorms (albeit slow moving and occasionally wet) should traverse fuel beds that are critically dry on a spotty basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jun 27, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 years ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for severe thunderstorms will remain quite low through tonight. ...Mid Atlantic and southern New England... A summertime convective pattern is present across the CONUS today, with scattered thunderstorms in several areas but very limited severe potential. One area of some concern is along a weak cold front extending from southern New England into central VA. Thunderstorms are expected to form along this boundary, but considerable cloud cover will limit CAPE values in a weakly sheared environment. A localized storm producing gusty/damaging winds is possible, but the overall threat of severe appears low. Other thunderstorms with minor severe weather concerns will occur this afternoon and evening over parts of MN and south TX. In both areas, a storm or two may briefly produce a damaging wind gust. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/27/2022 Read more

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion Number 44

3 years ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271541 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 This morning's satellite presentation consists of a single curved band of deep convection in the south semi-circle of the cyclone. Over the past several hours, this banding feature has decreased in areal extent, and the cloud tops have warmed. A 0945 UTC AMSR2 microwave image revealed a vertically tilted structure with the surface circulation displaced to the southeast of the mid-level feature. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimate T numbers and a recent SATCON member consensus have decreased. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Celia should continue to spin down slowly during the next few days while traversing decreasing sea surface temperatures. Inhibiting thermodynamic environmental conditions are also expected to contribute to its eventual dissipation toward the end of the week. The NHC forecast is similar to last night's advisory and closely resembles a blend of the IVCN and HCCA model intensity predictions. Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt, and the system is embedded in the mid-level steering flow generated by a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone. Little change in motion and forward speed is expected until dissipation. The official track forecast is not much different from the previous one and lies in the middle of the model guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 20.8N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 21.4N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 22.2N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 23.6N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0000Z 24.1N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster

Crooks Fire (Wildfire)

3 years ago
The Crooks Fire began on April 18, 2022 about 10 miles south of the Prescott-Bradshaw Ranger District near Mt. Union.  On Saturday, June 25, 2022 the fire was called 100%

Tropical Storm Celia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44

3 years ago
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 271434 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Celia Public Advisory Number 44

3 years ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 271434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 ...CELIA SLOWLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 116.9W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 116.9 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected, and Celia should become a post-tropical remnant low within the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next couple of days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Advisory Number 44

3 years ago
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 271434 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 116.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 75SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 116.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.4N 118.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.2N 120.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.6N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.1N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 116.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
NHC Webmaster