Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low through much of the extended period. A cold front will continue southward across the southern Plains late D2 - Friday. Southerly return flow will on D3 - Saturday and D4 - Sunday will gradually pull moisture northward beneath a quick moving upper ridge. A Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest through early next week, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Westerly flow across the Rockies will lead to surface low development across the central/southern Plains by D4 - Sunday. The resulting increased south to southwest flow across the Plains may bring potential for spotty Elevated to Critical meteorological conditions across some portion of the central high and southern Plains. Given potential for additional wetting rainfall on D5 - Sunday and D6 - Monday within an area where fuels are largely seasonably moist, confidence in fire weather impacts, if any, remains low at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 16 21:58:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 16 21:58:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, and a brief tornado or damaging gust cannot be completely ruled out. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley as a second mid-level trough meanders off of the CA coastline today. While surface troughing across the MS/OH Valleys will encourage modest moisture return, the surface airmass over most of the CONUS should remain too cool or stable to support organized thunderstorm potential. A renegade thunderstorm or two may occur across portions of central CA and southern AZ in advance of the approaching trough (and associated embedded mid-level impulses ejecting ahead of this feature). However, very scant buoyancy and deep-layer ascent should limit storm coverage to below 10 percent, hence the removal of thunder lines in these areas. The main threat for organized thunderstorms remains over the central and eastern FL Peninsula as a surface low intensifies offshore over the Atlantic shoreline. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... A surface low is poised to intensify just offshore of the southeastern FL Peninsula today, with 35+ kts of easterly 850 mb flow expected to overspread some of the counties around and east of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon and evening hours. This strengthening flow aloft will result in elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature. Instability should be marginal though, with 5.5-6.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 68-70F surface dewpoints, contributing to 800-1200 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE. Latest guidance consensus depicts semi-discrete storms developing along the northwestern periphery of the surface low across southeast portions of the FL Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, it is not entirely out of the question for one of the stronger storms to produce a damaging gust or even a brief tornado, hence the introduction of Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities this outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, and a brief tornado or damaging gust cannot be completely ruled out. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley as a second mid-level trough meanders off of the CA coastline today. While surface troughing across the MS/OH Valleys will encourage modest moisture return, the surface airmass over most of the CONUS should remain too cool or stable to support organized thunderstorm potential. A renegade thunderstorm or two may occur across portions of central CA and southern AZ in advance of the approaching trough (and associated embedded mid-level impulses ejecting ahead of this feature). However, very scant buoyancy and deep-layer ascent should limit storm coverage to below 10 percent, hence the removal of thunder lines in these areas. The main threat for organized thunderstorms remains over the central and eastern FL Peninsula as a surface low intensifies offshore over the Atlantic shoreline. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... A surface low is poised to intensify just offshore of the southeastern FL Peninsula today, with 35+ kts of easterly 850 mb flow expected to overspread some of the counties around and east of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon and evening hours. This strengthening flow aloft will result in elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature. Instability should be marginal though, with 5.5-6.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 68-70F surface dewpoints, contributing to 800-1200 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE. Latest guidance consensus depicts semi-discrete storms developing along the northwestern periphery of the surface low across southeast portions of the FL Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, it is not entirely out of the question for one of the stronger storms to produce a damaging gust or even a brief tornado, hence the introduction of Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities this outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, and a brief tornado or damaging gust cannot be completely ruled out. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley as a second mid-level trough meanders off of the CA coastline today. While surface troughing across the MS/OH Valleys will encourage modest moisture return, the surface airmass over most of the CONUS should remain too cool or stable to support organized thunderstorm potential. A renegade thunderstorm or two may occur across portions of central CA and southern AZ in advance of the approaching trough (and associated embedded mid-level impulses ejecting ahead of this feature). However, very scant buoyancy and deep-layer ascent should limit storm coverage to below 10 percent, hence the removal of thunder lines in these areas. The main threat for organized thunderstorms remains over the central and eastern FL Peninsula as a surface low intensifies offshore over the Atlantic shoreline. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... A surface low is poised to intensify just offshore of the southeastern FL Peninsula today, with 35+ kts of easterly 850 mb flow expected to overspread some of the counties around and east of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon and evening hours. This strengthening flow aloft will result in elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature. Instability should be marginal though, with 5.5-6.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 68-70F surface dewpoints, contributing to 800-1200 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE. Latest guidance consensus depicts semi-discrete storms developing along the northwestern periphery of the surface low across southeast portions of the FL Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, it is not entirely out of the question for one of the stronger storms to produce a damaging gust or even a brief tornado, hence the introduction of Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities this outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, and a brief tornado or damaging gust cannot be completely ruled out. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley as a second mid-level trough meanders off of the CA coastline today. While surface troughing across the MS/OH Valleys will encourage modest moisture return, the surface airmass over most of the CONUS should remain too cool or stable to support organized thunderstorm potential. A renegade thunderstorm or two may occur across portions of central CA and southern AZ in advance of the approaching trough (and associated embedded mid-level impulses ejecting ahead of this feature). However, very scant buoyancy and deep-layer ascent should limit storm coverage to below 10 percent, hence the removal of thunder lines in these areas. The main threat for organized thunderstorms remains over the central and eastern FL Peninsula as a surface low intensifies offshore over the Atlantic shoreline. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... A surface low is poised to intensify just offshore of the southeastern FL Peninsula today, with 35+ kts of easterly 850 mb flow expected to overspread some of the counties around and east of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon and evening hours. This strengthening flow aloft will result in elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature. Instability should be marginal though, with 5.5-6.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 68-70F surface dewpoints, contributing to 800-1200 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE. Latest guidance consensus depicts semi-discrete storms developing along the northwestern periphery of the surface low across southeast portions of the FL Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, it is not entirely out of the question for one of the stronger storms to produce a damaging gust or even a brief tornado, hence the introduction of Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities this outlook. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may threaten the southern and eastern Florida Peninsula, and a brief tornado or damaging gust cannot be completely ruled out. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley as a second mid-level trough meanders off of the CA coastline today. While surface troughing across the MS/OH Valleys will encourage modest moisture return, the surface airmass over most of the CONUS should remain too cool or stable to support organized thunderstorm potential. A renegade thunderstorm or two may occur across portions of central CA and southern AZ in advance of the approaching trough (and associated embedded mid-level impulses ejecting ahead of this feature). However, very scant buoyancy and deep-layer ascent should limit storm coverage to below 10 percent, hence the removal of thunder lines in these areas. The main threat for organized thunderstorms remains over the central and eastern FL Peninsula as a surface low intensifies offshore over the Atlantic shoreline. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... A surface low is poised to intensify just offshore of the southeastern FL Peninsula today, with 35+ kts of easterly 850 mb flow expected to overspread some of the counties around and east of Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon and evening hours. This strengthening flow aloft will result in elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature. Instability should be marginal though, with 5.5-6.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 68-70F surface dewpoints, contributing to 800-1200 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE. Latest guidance consensus depicts semi-discrete storms developing along the northwestern periphery of the surface low across southeast portions of the FL Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, it is not entirely out of the question for one of the stronger storms to produce a damaging gust or even a brief tornado, hence the introduction of Category 1/Marginal Risk probabilities this outlook. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Friday across the country. The surface low currently deepening over the northern High Plains is forecast to weaken through the day Friday as it lifts to the east/northeast into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will continue to push east with the surface low (reaching from the Great Lakes to southeast TX by late Friday), but the weakening of the low, combined with surface pressure rises across the central Plains, will result in muted gradient winds compared to today/Thursday. Additionally, cooler temperatures should overspread much of the Plains where fuels are somewhat dry, limiting diurnal RH reductions. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected to be fairly limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern on Friday will feature a deamplifying mid-level trough over the Atlantic off the Southeast coast and a mid-level trough moving east across the Great Lakes. Farther west, a mid-level ridge over the southern-central Rockies will be downstream of a trough slowly encroaching on the CA coast by early Saturday morning. In the low levels, surface high pressure will encompass much of the central US in wake of a cold front pushing east across the OH/TN Valley into the Appalachians. Showers are possible over the coastal mountains of CA by the early evening before additional showers and a few thunderstorms develop inland. Scant buoyancy will limit thunderstorm coverage/intensity across CA and the lower CO River Valley. ..Smith.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern on Friday will feature a deamplifying mid-level trough over the Atlantic off the Southeast coast and a mid-level trough moving east across the Great Lakes. Farther west, a mid-level ridge over the southern-central Rockies will be downstream of a trough slowly encroaching on the CA coast by early Saturday morning. In the low levels, surface high pressure will encompass much of the central US in wake of a cold front pushing east across the OH/TN Valley into the Appalachians. Showers are possible over the coastal mountains of CA by the early evening before additional showers and a few thunderstorms develop inland. Scant buoyancy will limit thunderstorm coverage/intensity across CA and the lower CO River Valley. ..Smith.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern on Friday will feature a deamplifying mid-level trough over the Atlantic off the Southeast coast and a mid-level trough moving east across the Great Lakes. Farther west, a mid-level ridge over the southern-central Rockies will be downstream of a trough slowly encroaching on the CA coast by early Saturday morning. In the low levels, surface high pressure will encompass much of the central US in wake of a cold front pushing east across the OH/TN Valley into the Appalachians. Showers are possible over the coastal mountains of CA by the early evening before additional showers and a few thunderstorms develop inland. Scant buoyancy will limit thunderstorm coverage/intensity across CA and the lower CO River Valley. ..Smith.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern on Friday will feature a deamplifying mid-level trough over the Atlantic off the Southeast coast and a mid-level trough moving east across the Great Lakes. Farther west, a mid-level ridge over the southern-central Rockies will be downstream of a trough slowly encroaching on the CA coast by early Saturday morning. In the low levels, surface high pressure will encompass much of the central US in wake of a cold front pushing east across the OH/TN Valley into the Appalachians. Showers are possible over the coastal mountains of CA by the early evening before additional showers and a few thunderstorms develop inland. Scant buoyancy will limit thunderstorm coverage/intensity across CA and the lower CO River Valley. ..Smith.. 11/16/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will be limited today across the country. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border. Ahead of this feature, steady surface pressure falls have been observed over the past 12 hours across eastern MT and the Dakotas with a surface low beginning to organize over the region. This low will continue to deepen and drift east through the day as an attendant cold front (already noted over northeast MT/northwest ND) sweeps to the south/southeast. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of and behind the front with winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph. However, the combination of moisture advection ahead of the front and an influx of cooler temperatures behind the front should modulate afternoon RH reductions. Localized elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies (mainly from southeast CO to northeast NM), where pre-frontal westerly downslope flow may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and RH values in the 20-30% range. Such conditions are expected to be too transient and localized to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will be limited today across the country. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border. Ahead of this feature, steady surface pressure falls have been observed over the past 12 hours across eastern MT and the Dakotas with a surface low beginning to organize over the region. This low will continue to deepen and drift east through the day as an attendant cold front (already noted over northeast MT/northwest ND) sweeps to the south/southeast. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of and behind the front with winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph. However, the combination of moisture advection ahead of the front and an influx of cooler temperatures behind the front should modulate afternoon RH reductions. Localized elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies (mainly from southeast CO to northeast NM), where pre-frontal westerly downslope flow may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and RH values in the 20-30% range. Such conditions are expected to be too transient and localized to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will be limited today across the country. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper shortwave trough traversing the U.S./Canadian border. Ahead of this feature, steady surface pressure falls have been observed over the past 12 hours across eastern MT and the Dakotas with a surface low beginning to organize over the region. This low will continue to deepen and drift east through the day as an attendant cold front (already noted over northeast MT/northwest ND) sweeps to the south/southeast. Breezy conditions are expected ahead of and behind the front with winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph. However, the combination of moisture advection ahead of the front and an influx of cooler temperatures behind the front should modulate afternoon RH reductions. Localized elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of the central to southern Rockies (mainly from southeast CO to northeast NM), where pre-frontal westerly downslope flow may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and RH values in the 20-30% range. Such conditions are expected to be too transient and localized to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more