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Some western Massachusetts cities and towns have instituted mandatory water restrictions, including Easthampton, Northampton, Shelburne, Southwick and Ware. WWLP-22 News (Mass.), June 26, 2022

A Higgins boat is one of the latest items to emerge from the depths of Lake Mead as the water level continues to fall. The World War II-era landing craft was used to survey the Colorado River decades ago. Las Vegas Review-Journal (Nev.), July 1, 2022

Sierra Pacific Industries, owner of more than 2 million acres of timberland in California, Oregon and Washington, closed its California forestlands on July 1 due to “extreme drought conditions and increasing risk of wildfire.” San Francisco Chronicle (Calif.), June 26, 2022

A number of cities in the West will forego fireworks this year, some due to drought and wildfire concerns, but others due to short-staffing or supply chain issues. Demand for fireworks was almost nonexistent during the pandemic, but suddenly demand for them is high, leading to problems with overseas shipping, transportation in the U.S., rising insurance costs and labor shortages, which have all contributed to the canceled displays. • Phoenix canceled its three major displays because they couldn’t get professional-grade fireworks • Flagstaff, AZ will have a new laser light show instead of fireworks • The Lake Don Pedro display in California was canceled due to drought and the low lake level • Wildfire concerns caused cancellations in Lompoc, CA and Castle Rock, CO • Albuquerque and Santa Fe in NM are go for fireworks, despite the immense wildfire activity that the state has seen this year Associated Press News (New York), June 27, 2022

North Texas soil moisture remained short to adequate. Water tank levels continued to drop. Concerns about prolonged drought could impact plantings this fall. Summer pastures were improving but still needed rain. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 24, 2022

The South Carolina Drought Response Committee upgraded the drought designation for all counties in the state. Thirteen counties were upgraded from incipient to moderate drought, including Beaufort, Charleston, Colleton, Darlington, Dillon, Dorchester, Florence, Georgetown, Horry, Jasper, Marlboro, Marion and Williamsburg. The remaining counties were upgraded to the first level of drought, incipient. "Corn and tobacco crops are suffering. Hay production is low, and many producers are already feeding their winter hay and selling cows. Ponds and creeks are much lower than they were a few weeks ago," according to an agricultural program specialist with the Farm Service Agency Office. More wildfires have burned in recent weeks. In June, the Forestry Commission responded to 196 wildfires that burned more than 1,157 acres. Compared to the 10-year June average, there were 172% more fires and 231% more acres burned for the month. Most streams and groundwater levels were declining due to the lack of rain and high temperatures. With drought conditions intensifying, all water systems were asked to review their drought response plans and ordinances and implement as needed. The Sumter Item (S.C.), July 2, 2022 The South Carolina Department of Natural Resources recognized 13 counties as being in incipient drought status. The 13 counties are Beaufort, Charleston, Colleton, Darlington, Dillon, Dorchester, Florence, Georgetown, Horry, Jasper, Marion, Marlboro and Williamsburg. Darlington County is unseasonably dry with rain evaporating before it can soak into the soil. Planting is underway in Marlboro County, but could soon slow or stop without rain. WPDE (Conway, S.C.), April 27, 2022

Hot and dry conditions continued. Temperatures were in the triple digits all week. All forage growth slowed due to drought. Cotton producers started to plant irrigated acres that was pre-watered while other producers were preparing to plant following potential rainfall in the forecast. Producers continued to supplement livestock with feed and reduce herd numbers. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 24, 2022 Conditions in West Central Texas were extremely hot and dry. Some counties received a little rain, but the majority stayed dry. Pastures were starting to turn dormant, and stock tanks were drying up or extremely low. Wheat producers were choosing to bale wheat pastures as they anticipated little grain production and a short hay crop. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued, with most producers culling numbers. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 10, 2022 Conditions remained windy and very dry in West Central Texas and were not favorable for agricultural production. Some corn was planted where producers pre-watered. Winter wheat remained in mostly poor condition due to drought. Livestock body conditions were declining. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 26, 2022 Conditions were very dry across West Central Texas. Some areas did receive rain, but most parts stayed dry. Some green-up occurred, but there was little available forage. Wheat was being watered in irrigated fields, and pre-watering in cotton fields started in anticipation of planting in a month. Livestock were in poor to fair condition. Some ranchers were selling cows due to the lack of water and little to no lease land available. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 19, 2022 West Central Texas fields were being prepared for cotton planting, but dryland fields will need rainfall. Dryland wheat fields failed, and irrigated wheat yields will be below average. Pastures have no grazing, and livestock were being fed. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 12, 2022 Dry conditions continued in West Central Texas, and hay reserves were low. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued. Some producers were beginning to cull cattle due to drought and wildfires. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 5, 2022

Cattle forage and hay fields in Southeast Texas were way behind schedule due to drought, and grazing was limited. Dryland crops were struggling. Rangeland and pasture conditions ranged from very poor to excellent with fair conditions in most areas. Soil moisture levels were very short to adequate with short levels being most common. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 24, 2022 Many Southeast Texas counties were becoming dry due to the lack of rain. Some producers gambled and put out fertilizer, but missed out on rain so far. Some areas remained dry. Rangeland and pasture ratings were very poor to excellent with mostly fair conditions reported. Soil moisture levels were very short to adequate with short conditions being most common. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 26, 2022 Many counties in Southeast Texas were struggling with dry conditions. Soil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Some counties received some rain, up to 2 inches in one location, but dry conditions persisted. Pastures were getting dry. Windy conditions were reported. Most pastures were fertilized and needed rain. Rangeland and pasture ratings were very poor to excellent with mostly fair conditions reported. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 19, 2022 Southeast Texas pastures were greening up and in good condition but getting dry. Soil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Some areas were drier after missing recent rains. Some rice farmers were irrigating to get the crop started. Rangeland and pasture ratings were very poor to fair. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 12, 2022 Pasture and rangelands in Southeast Texas were in very poor to good condition, and a burn ban was in effect. Some areas reported decent rainfall, and more rain was in the forecast. Subsoil moisture was very short to adequate. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 29, 2022 Many areas of Southeast Texas remained dry. Rangeland and pasture ratings were very poor to fair. Soil moisture levels were very short to surplus. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 15, 2022 Rangeland and pasture conditions in Southeast Texas ranged from very poor to good, and soil moisture levels were very short to adequate. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 8, 2022 Soil moisture in Southeast Texas ranged from very poor to surplus. Rangeland and pasture conditions ranged from very poor to fair. AgriLife (College Station, Texas), March 2, 2022 Soil moisture was below normal in Southeast Texas. Cool-season legumes were extremely behind on growth this year, and many fields were barely managing to germinate with very little above-ground growth reported. Rangeland and pasture ratings were very poor to fair. Soil moisture levels ranged from very short to surplus with most counties reporting adequate conditions. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 24, 2022 Most of Southeast Texas remained dry. Soil moisture levels were adequate to very short. Pasture forages were declining, but the quality remained good. Wheat and oat fields needed rain. Most livestock were being fed supplemental hay and/or protein. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 1, 2022

Soil moisture levels in the Panhandle were very short to short. Overall crop, rangeland and pasture conditions were very poor to poor. Producers were still trying to decide whether to plant this season. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 24, 2022 Overall soil moisture in the Texas Panhandle was very short to short. Crop, rangeland and pasture conditions were very poor to poor. Wheat was heading, but rain was needed to fill the head with grain. Rangeland was still dormant in most areas, and cattle diets were being supplemented. Most of the area continued to struggle with drought conditions. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 10, 2022 Soil moisture in the Panhandle was very short to short. Strong wind events contributed to soil erosion in fields lacking moisture or forage cover. Extreme winds added to the very dry conditions. Rangeland was trying to green up but needed moisture. Cattle were still being supplemented with feed and hay. Overall crop, rangeland and pasture conditions were very poor to poor. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 26, 2022 Extreme drought conditions continued in the Panhandle. A few farmers planted oats over wheat fields that did not emerge in hopes of having some type of grazing for cattle if rainfall arrives. Many farmers were preparing their fields for spring planting, but the lack of rainfall was delaying planting decisions. Cattle were on supplemental feed. Producers were selling off their cow-calf pairs due to the lack of forage. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 19, 2022 Dry conditions persisted in the Panhandle, and soil moisture levels were very short to short. There has been no measurable rainfall in the past several months, and conditions were taking their toll on the land and producers. Producers with irrigation were running pivots on winter wheat to get silage or grazing for stocker cattle. With grain prices up considerably for wheat, producers were considering whether to take it to harvest. Rangeland green up started but was very slow due to dry conditions. Overall rangeland and pasture conditions were very poor to poor. Ranchers were beginning to thin herds as feed supplies were running low. Wildfires were a real danger. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 12, 2022 The Panhandle received scattered showers, but much more was needed to restore soil moisture and crop conditions to normal. Soil moisture levels were very short to short. Overall, crop, rangeland and pasture conditions were very poor to poor. Producers with irrigation were watering wheat to get some growth for stocker cattle. Supplemental feeding of cattle continued. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 5, 2022 Soil moisture levels in the Texas Panhandle were very short to short. Some general rainfall and snow provided some moisture, but much more was needed to restore soil moisture and crop conditions to normal. Producers with irrigation were watering wheat to get some growth for stocker cattle. Rangeland and pasture conditions were very poor to poor. Cattle diets were being supplemented on rangeland. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 29, 2022 Soil moisture conditions in the Texas Panhandle were very short to short. Crop, rangeland and pasture conditions were very poor to poor. Dry conditions worsened. Producers were finishing up limited fieldwork in the dry conditions. Irrigation was needed for tillage, and wheat was being irrigated. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 22, 2022 Conditions were cold and dry in the Texas Panhandle. Soil moisture levels were very short to short. Producers were on hold for fieldwork or preparations as they waited for moisture. They were also running pivot irrigation systems on wheat fields trying to get some grazing for stocker cattle. Dryland wheat conditions continued to deteriorate, and cattle were being supplemented on rangelands. Crop, rangeland and pasture conditions were very poor to poor. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 15, 2022 Dry, warm conditions persisted. All counties reported very short to short soil moisture. Dryland wheat was in gradual decline. Irrigated wheat was receiving water. Cattle were receiving supplemental feed on rangeland. Crops, rangeland and pastures were in very poor to poor condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 8, 2022 Dry conditions continued in the Panhandle. Overall soil moisture was very short to short. Rangeland and pasture conditions were poor to very poor in most counties. Winter wheat crops continued to struggle with the lack of moisture. Some producers were beginning to irrigate wheat on warmer days. Cattle were receiving supplemental feed on rangelands and pasture. Wheat pasture cattle were being sold. Conditions remained extremely dry. AgriLife (College Station, Texas), March 2, 2022 Conditions remained extremely dry in the Panhandle. Soil moisture levels were very short to short. Winter wheat continued to struggle from a lack of moisture. Some producers were beginning to irrigate wheat on warmer days. Livestock were in fair condition with daily supplemental feeding. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 24, 2022 Extreme drought conditions persisted in the Panhandle. Overall soil moisture levels were very short to short, and rangeland and pasture ratings were very poor to poor in nearly all counties. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 15, 2022 Soil moisture levels in the Texas Panhandle are very short. Rangeland and pasture conditions were very poor to poor. The moisture from recent snow could make a difference for winter wheat. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 8, 2022 The Panhandle is very dry, and emerging wheat fields are at a standstill in need of soil moisture as soil moisture is short in nearly all counties. Overall, rangeland and pasture conditions were very poor to poor. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 1, 2022 Dry conditions continued in the Panhandle, and moisture was extremely limited. Drought conditions were affecting winter wheat and native pastures. If significant rains do not arrive by April, only irrigated corn acres will be available for planting. Some producers were irrigating wheat on warmer days. Cattle on rangelands were receiving supplemental feed. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Jan 25, 2022

Conditions remained dry, hot and windy. Temperatures reached 109 degrees. Extreme fire dangers existed all week. High winds caused wind erosion. There were reports of dying plant life, including trees. Producers were not happy with soil moisture levels, and emergence was questionable. Corn fields will start sharing water with cotton soon, so rainfall will be necessary for corn to make decent yields. Pastures remained completely bare of any forage, and producers were selling livestock at a high rate due to poor conditions. Deer feeding in ditches continue to be a hazard for drivers. Deer were expected to become a severe problem in cotton as it begins to emerge. Livestock producers were feeding supplements and heavy hay rations. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 24, 2022 Temperatures in Far West Texas were brutally hot with high winds causing soil moisture to evaporate quickly. More rain and irrigation moisture were evaporating than fields could absorb. There were reports of dead grasses and trees. Corn was beginning to show stress. Pastures were generally bare, and cattle were becoming scarce. Livestock were being fed more cubes due to decreased pasture quality. Producers continued to feed livestock and wildlife. Irrigation water in the lower valley was limited to City of El Paso effluent water and some lower-quality well water. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 10, 2022 Dry and windy conditions persisted, and wildfire threats remained extremely high. Winds with 40 mph gusts slowed fieldwork due to visibility issues. Most fieldwork halted as growers waited for some significant rain before doing any more land preparation. Rangeland conditions continued to deteriorate in southern areas but were greening up in northern parts of the district. Livestock were getting expensive to feed. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 26, 2022 No rain was reported in Far West Texas amid extremely dry and windy conditions. No cotton was planted yet, and growers were not optimistic about the crop due to dry conditions. More producers were turning off their irrigation water and most will not irrigate this season. What little corn that was planted was showing mixed conditions at this point with a portion looking very good and other fields looking poor with nonuniform emergence. Andrews County lost approximately 6,500 acres of rangeland to wildfire. Livestock producers were providing heavy rations of supplemental hay and feed due to poor grazing conditions. Many pastures were completely bare of grass. Many ranchers were evaluating herds for culling. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 19, 2022 Conditions remained dry in Far West Texas. Rangeland conditions continued to deteriorate in drier areas. Only irrigated wheat remained. A few producers who were pre-watering fields have already shut off wells because pivots were not adding soil moisture. Producers were having a very difficult time getting corn to emerge on irrigated ground, and many were considering abandoning the crop. Some wheat and oats under irrigation were expected to be cut and baled. Ranchers were considering culling herds soon without rain. Cattle continued to be sold due to the price of feed and reduced availability. Pastures were bare, with no weeds or grass present. Producers were worried about potential herd consolidation due to drought. Alfalfa fields and pecan orchards continued to receive irrigation. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 12, 2022 Blowing sand was piling up in Far West Texas due to extremely high winds. Corn acres were down significantly due to lack of moisture and irrigation availability. Sorghum planting should begin soon, however, acres may decline as well. Fieldwork for cotton slowed down as most producers were afraid of disturbing the soil due to the high winds. More growers were shutting the irrigation off because they could not get the soil wet enough to work or plant, but some continued watering fields. Farmers around El Paso were relying on well water and effluent from the city. Cattle were in fair condition, but producers continued to cull herds due to the lack of grazing and high feed costs. A wildfire burned for two days covering approximately 650 acres in the northern part of Jeff Davis County. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 5, 2022 Conditions in Far West Texas were windy with no precipitation. Rangeland conditions were extremely dry. Only irrigated wheat fields remained. Pre-irrigation for cotton continued, and some pecan orchards and alfalfa fields were receiving water as well. The Lower Valley was being irrigated with effluent from the City of El Paso, some private wells, and some El Paso County Water Improvement District No. 1 wells. Water quality issues were a problem during this critical time. The Upper Valley was irrigating crops with private wells, but the water quality was very good. Some fires reached West Texas, and due to the high winds, ranchers were forced to move the cattle to different sections of their ranches. Producers continued to feed wildlife and livestock. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 29, 2022 The lack of precipitation, strong winds and blowing sand reduced visibility in Far West Texas at times to less than an eighth of a mile. Conditions made it hard for ranchers to work cattle. There were reports of high winds damaging crops and water systems plus evaporating much of the soil moisture from pre-irrigated fields. Very little fieldwork was being done as producers tried to limit input costs. Area cow/calf producers were working calves and selling more livestock, especially cattle, due to cost-prohibitive supplemental feeding. Many fires had broken out, including one that burned around 4,000 acres. Rangeland conditions were poor. Pre-irrigation for row crop fields continued, including some irrigation for pecan orchards and remaining alfalfa. Irrigation in portions of the Lower Valley was effluent/treated sewage from the City of El Paso, El Paso County Water Improvement District No. 1 wells and some private wells. Water was scheduled to be released from Elephant Butte Reservoir in late May, which would deliver water to El Paso County in early June. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 22, 2022 Extreme drought conditions continued in Far West Texas. Blowing sand was starting to cover roads due to high winds and lack of cover crops. Livestock producers were supplemental feeding with protein and hay. Rangelands continued to decline with no precipitation. Pre-irrigation continued in the Rio Grande Valley, mainly for Pima and upland cotton. Some alfalfa and pecan orchards were being irrigated. More planted cotton acres were expected due to higher cotton prices. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 15, 2022 Conditions were dry with no rainfall. The district went 200 days since the last rain of 0.5 of an inch or more. There was no wheat, and pastures were bare. A few growers turned on their irrigation wells. Irrigated acres may be down considerably this year, especially considering the high cost of inputs. Summer forages were still dormant. Producers were supplementing all livestock with hay and grain. Ranchers were selling more cattle weekly including breeding stock. Parts of the lower valley received effluent water from the City of El Paso via the irrigation district. The upper valley will rely on wells for pre-irrigation of row crops, alfalfa and pecans. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 8, 2022 Dry conditions continued in Far West Texas with many counties having issues with visibility due to high winds and blowing sand. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor. Winter wheat was also in very poor condition. Producers were spraying to keep insects away from crops, but others were waiting for rain before starting. A few producers started irrigating soil but will shut wells off if rain does not come soon. Pastures continued to be bare. Cattle producers were reducing stocking rates and increasing supplemental feed rations. More cattle were being sold. Water levels at Elephant Butte reservoir were low as they were last year. Although Pima cotton prices were very high this year, very little cotton was expected to be planted due to severe drought conditions. AgriLife (College Station, Texas), March 2, 2022 Small portions of the district received trace amounts of rain, but most areas do not have enough moisture for cover crops or to sand fight. Heavy winds were received with power outages reported. Drought conditions continued and growers were trying to decide what to do this summer. A few producers began to pre-water fields for the upcoming cotton crop. Most producers were not going to irrigate until significant rainfall improves subsoil moisture. Wheat was nearly non-existent with only a couple of irrigated fields that have not failed. The irrigated wheat was in very poor condition as irrigation was limited. Wheat was behind this year, but remaining fields have begun to joint. Stocking rates were extremely low, and some producers were culling deeper to reduce supplemental feed requirements. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 24, 2022 Far West Texas had a very small amount of irrigated wheat that had not grown much due to cold temperatures and a lack of moisture. Pastures were completely bare of forage for livestock. Cattle were looking thin, and producers were still feeding them heavy rations. They also continued to sell off cull cows and younger calves at lighter weights. A few producers were considering reducing herd size due to high feed costs. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 15, 2022 Far West Texas remained extremely dry. Wheat seeds may germinate if the ground warms back up, but more moisture will be necessary to sustain the crop. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 8, 2022 No dryland wheat in Far West Texas had emerged, and irrigated wheat only came up directly above drip tapes. Pastures were bare of grass and forage for cattle. Producers continued to sell off calves and poorer cows. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 1, 2022 Far West Texas was warm and dry. Wheat conditions worsened. About 5% of planted fields emerged, and dryland fields that emerged were dead. Irrigated wheat on drip systems had not emerged between the tapes. Growers who dug ditches to install new drip irrigation said there was no moisture up to 6 feet in ground depth. Rangeland and pastures were very hard and dry. Cattle were receiving supplemental feed, and more producers were thinning herds due to lack of forages and high feed costs. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Jan 25, 2022

 Had 27 acre spot fire that crews quickly suppressed and put containment line around.  Containment line is completed around fire perimeter.  Continue to mop up and

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located a couple of hundred miles south of southern
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... The only change with this update was a slight southward expansion of the Critical area into far northwest AZ and southern NV based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance consensus. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, RAP forecast soundings show deep inverted-V profiles over parts of central into northeast UT -- supportive of isolated high-based dry thunderstorms and the potential for a lightning-induced ignition or two given receptive fuels. However, the anticipated limited coverage of this activity precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Weinman.. 07/03/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift eastward into the Plains states as a mid-level trough advances toward the Intermountain West today. Surface lee troughing will materialize across the Great Basin, with Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions developing along the Nevada/Utah during the afternoon hours. Scattered thunderstorms will also develop across the northern Rockies into the Pacific Northwest by afternoon peak heating. While some of these storms may be high-based and potentially dry, overall wetter storms will become more abundant and traverse fuel beds that are marginally receptive to fire spread, precluding dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 3 16:40:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 3 16:40:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF MT TO SOUTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... The most concentrated corridor of severe storms, including potential for significant severe wind/hail and a few tornadoes, is forecast across parts of Montana into southwest North Dakota through this evening. ...MT to western ND... Primary mid-level low just off the OR coast is embedded within a broader Pacific Coast trough. Multiple waves of ascent are evident downstream of this trough, with the ones most impactful for severe potential across southwest MT this morning and the next across southwest ID. Guidance differs on the degree of intensification of convection with the initial wave, while greater consistency exists on convective evolution emanating out of the latter one. With easterly low-level winds to the north of the effective surface front beneath 35-45 kt mid-level southwesterlies, enlarged and elongated hodographs will be favorable for several supercells, a few of which could become long-tracked. Primary uncertainty is how quickly storm-scale consolidation/upscale growth will occur. Supercell bow-echo evolution does appear probable as convection rides along the surface front given a deeply mixed thermodynamic environment to its south. A forward-propagating MCS is increasingly likely this evening as low-level winds and convergence strengthen across eastern MT. The full spectrum of severe threats is expected with significant large hail most likely from mid-afternoon to early evening, and significant severe wind potential centered on this evening. The tornado threat is more nebulous and convective mode dependent, but will be conditionally favored in a west/east-oriented corridor north of the front. ...Northern/central Great Plains... While most of the region will remain under the influence of low-amplitude mid-level ridging, a broad plume of moderate to large buoyancy is expected at peak heating with relative maxima centered near northwest SD and the KS/NE border. Remnant outflow boundaries, the lee trough over the High Plains, and the warm front across ND and the Red River Valley should all focus scattered to widespread thunderstorms from late afternoon into tonight. Stronger deep-layer shear will generally be confined to the ND/Red River Valley regime within the belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies, suggesting that supercell potential farther south will be tied to mesoscale boundaries with broader multicell clustering tending to dominate. While all severe hazards are possible, wind should become the overall primary threat, especially this evening into tonight as multiple MCSs spread east. ...Carolinas... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the Southeast, but potential for loosely organized multicell clustering is most apparent across NC into parts of SC. The latter will be supported by the presence of differential heating across a southward-sagging cold front and the fringe influence of a trough over QC maintaining 15-20 kt mid-level westerlies. With 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE along the coastal plain, strong to locally severe gusts will be possible in wet microbursts through early evening. ..Grams/Hart.. 07/03/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2022 14:47:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2022 15:22:41 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 031445 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 92.4W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 92.4W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 91.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 92.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 031435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 Bonnie appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images show a strong convective band, with a significant amount of lightning, on the western side of the system. Recent microwave data indicate than an inner core is becoming better established, with hints of an eye apparent in the 37 GHz channel. The latest Dvorak classifications were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 55 kt based on that data. The storm is currently experiencing a moderate amount of easterly shear, but that is expected to let up some during the next day or so. The improving upper-level wind pattern combined with a moist air mass and warm SSTs should allow Bonnie to steadily strengthen through Monday. Rapid intensification is a possibility, and the SHIPS model shows a fair chance (40 percent) of that occurring within the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, easterly shear is expected to increase and SSTs gradually cool beneath the system. These factors should end the strengthening trend and perhaps induce slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening than the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise unchanged. Bonnie is still moving relatively quickly westward at 280/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer Bonnie westward to west-northwestward during the next several days, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. The track models are in good agreement, and the new forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. Based on the forecast, no watches are required for Guatemala or southern/southwestern Mexico, but interests there should closely monitor updates, as a northward adjustment to the track could require tropical storm watches for portions of this coastline. The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala today and southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 11.9N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi