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Scattered showers fell over Southeast Texas, ranging from 0.5-1.5 inches, but most of the district was still extremely dry. Rice harvest was completed, pastures were being mowed, and planting ryegrass for the winter started. Producers were tilling fields and planting winter forages for over-wintering livestock. Hay was fed to livestock and becoming harder to find in the area. Producers continued to cull cattle from their herds, but the number of cattle going to market dropped slightly. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Recent rains improved conditions in West Central Texas; however, much more was needed to grow grass before winter. Warm conditions allowed producers to prepare fields for oat and wheat planting, with a few beginning to sow. Trees continued to show severe drought stress. Some hay fields were being cut and baled. Aphid and armyworm pressure increased. Stock tank levels continued to decrease. Cattle looked good and supplemental feeding continued due to the lack of grass. The cattle market decreased slightly, but producers continued selling calves to reduce pressure on cows going into winter. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Daytime temperatures in Far West Texas were in the upper 80s to mid-90s, with overnight temperatures in the upper 60s to mid-70s. Rain varied in the region, anywhere from trace amounts to upwards of 1 inch. Soil moisture levels remained adequate to good. Cotton defoliation picked up as growers prepared for harvest. Most cotton fields failed due to drought and extreme heat and were shredded and plowed under. Lower grain sorghum yields were expected. Hay grazer and sunflowers headed out. Corn was harvested. Wheat planting slowed as most growers were waiting for some moisture before going much further. Pecan pods were cracking open, and harvesting should begin in three weeks. Livestock were in fair condition, and producers continued supplementing with hay and grain. More producers were taking livestock to the sale. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

North Texas was very dry as temperatures continued to stay high. Topsoil moisture levels ranged from short to adequate. No wheat or oats were planted. All crops except cotton were harvested. Livestock conditions were fair to good. Pasture conditions improved in some counties, and pastures were still poor to fair due to drought. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Hot and dry conditions continued across the Panhandle. Above-average temperatures and little to no rainfall caused many crops to struggle through the last part of the summer into the fall. The small amount of rain received the previous month did not last long. Most of the corn harvested was going to silage instead of grain. Producers began to defoliate cotton; irrigated acres were in good condition. Dryland cotton that survived was harvested. Pastures and rangelands were in fair condition but needed moisture. Rangelands continued to dry down and go dormant. Livestock were in good condition as ranchers fed hay and supplements daily. Hay supplies were replenished due to timely rains throughout the growing season. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Dry conditions continued throughout the South Plains. Farmers were preparing for the cotton harvest. Many were making plans to apply harvest aids in the coming days and weeks. Most corn fields were cut, and sorghum was being harvested as it matured. The pumpkin crop was finishing up. Pumpkin yields this year were down 30%-40% due to the extreme heat this summer. Silage was being cut at a rapid pace. Cattle were in good condition and were still utilizing improved pastures from the July rains. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Recent rainfall helped parts of East Texas bounce back. Ponds and creeks rose to more normal levels. Some counties were able to lift their burn bans as well. Pasture and rangeland conditions were still very poor to fair. Topsoil conditions were short to adequate, and subsoil conditions were short. Producers in some areas, like Anderson and Panola counties, reported another cutting of hay, and producers in other counties remained hopeful for a final cutting. But recent forage growth also brought the problem of widespread armyworm infestations. Livestock were doing fair to good with some supplemental feeding taking place. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 3, 2023

Dry weather has slowed the maturity of the peanut crop, so harvest was just getting started. Normally, the harvest would be about halfway done. The peanut yield was lower than normal, possibly down 30%. The sweet potato crop was also seeing lower yields. Pastures were dry and farmers were feeding hay. WALA TV 10 (Mobile, Ala.), Oct 4, 2023

Drought and heat have hurt the Mississippi pumpkin crop, leaving fewer and smaller pumpkins for sale. A pumpkin grower in Smith County did not harvest any pumpkins. WHLT-TV (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 4, 2023

Shenandoah remained in stage 1 water conservation status. KMALand (Shenandoah, Iowa), Oct 2, 2023 Stage one water conservation measures took effect in Shenandoah as water levels dropped in the city’s wells. Low rainfall has been a years long issue in the region. KMA Land (Shenandoah, Iowa), Aug 25, 2023

Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 092357 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Max Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 ...MAX MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 101.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 101.2 West. Max has been moving due north over the last several hours, but it is expected to resume a motion toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This motion is expected to continue until dissipation as the cyclone moves further inland over southern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue as Max moves farther inland, with the storm expected to dissipate over Mexico late tonight or on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and expected to continue through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of Mexico for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

...MAX MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 the center of Max was located near 17.9, -101.2 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 23:56:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 21:29:26 GMT

Issued at 600 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 092356 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 600 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 ...LIDIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 110.6W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Playa Perula to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya * Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 110.6 West. Lidia is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster east-northeastward motion is expected this evening and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach Las Islas Marias on Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight and Tuesday, and Lidia is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches Las Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area on Tuesday, with winds expected to first reach tropical storm strength by Tuesday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...LIDIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY... As of 6:00 PM MDT Mon Oct 9 the center of Lidia was located near 18.2, -110.6 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 23:56:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 21:23:01 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092333
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has changed
little in organization since earlier today. However, environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while the
system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
continues to produce an area of disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear only marginally
favorable for some additional development while the system moves
slowly northward during the next day or so. The low is forecast to
merge with a frontal system over the western Gulf of Mexico by
Wednesday morning. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the
system is forecast to produce winds to gale force over portions of
the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 9 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical
Storm Max, located inland near the southern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 9 23:16:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 9 23:16:01 UTC 2023.