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No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 14 00:43:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-storm risk has diminished in the Mid-Mississippi Valley area. Severe weather will remain unlikely through the rest of the period. ...Discussion... Convection ongoing across parts of Iowa and Illinois continues to weaken this evening, as nocturnal cooling continues to yield steadily decreasing instability. This has resulted in a cessation of appreciable severe potential. Occasional lightning will be possible across the Midwest/Ohio Valley as the storm system associated with the convective activity advances eastward. A few thunderstorms across Deep South Texas, and southern Florida, may persist through the evening and into the overnight, while a few storms may develop later over portions of eastern South Carolina and vicinity. However, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/14/2023 Read more

796
ABNT20 KNHC 132320
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sean, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has been increasing near an area
of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands, although recent satellite images indicate that the
surface circulation remains broad. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development during the next
few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
early to middle portion of next week as the system moves westward
or west-northwestward across the central and western tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to
middle part of next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter part of the week
while meandering well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Surface high pressure will dominate the United States early next week as a cool, continental airmass is in place across much of the CONUS. Lee troughing may return by the middle of the week and bring some dry and breezy conditions to the Plains and vicinity. However, relative humidity is not expected to be that low, and these breezy conditions are anticipated where fuels are currently moist and should remain so. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal through next week. ..Bentley.. 10/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Oct 2023 20:39:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Oct 2023 21:22:59 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2023 000 WTNT44 KNHC 132038 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sean Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2023 Sean's satellite appearance continues to deteriorate this afternoon. Convection has waned with warming cloud tops to the east of the exposed low-level center. Sean is noticeably struggling with drier air impacting the system and the continued westerly wind shear. Any convection that tries to develop near the center is sheared off and dissipates. Satellite intensity estimates this afternoon range from 25 to 40 kt. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, but this could be generous given the waning convection the last several hours. As Sean moves through the drier and more stable airmass, further weakening is anticipated. Simulated satellite from the ECMWF and GFS depict that Sean may have occasional burst of convection the next day or so, but will continue to become less organized. This should cause Sean to become a post-tropical remnant low this weekend. However, recent trends suggest this could occur as early as tomorrow. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, near the consensus intensity aids. The tropical storm has continued to move west-northwestward today, around 290 at 10 kt. A turn northwestward has been forecast to occur today, but the center has continued west-northwestward, which has resulted in a westward shift of the NHC forecast track. The forecast still calls for the northwestward motion to begin later this evening and continue over the next day or so. As Sean becomes a remnant low and further weakens, the system will turn more west-northwestward again and dissipate into an open trough in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 14.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.8N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.9N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.7N 45.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 18.4N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 18.8N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 13 2023 000 FONT14 KNHC 132037 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 2100 UTC FRI OCT 13 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2023 000 WTNT34 KNHC 132037 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sean Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2023 ...SEAN STRUGGLING THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 42.5W ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sean was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 42.5 West. Sean is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later this evening, and this motion should continue for the next day or so. Sean is then expected to turn back toward the west-northwest by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated. Sean will likely become a post-tropical remnant low over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...SEAN STRUGGLING THIS AFTERNOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 13 the center of Sean was located near 14.9, -42.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 13 2023 000 WTNT24 KNHC 132037 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 2100 UTC FRI OCT 13 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 42.5W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 42.5W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 42.2W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.8N 43.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.9N 44.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.7N 45.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 47.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.8N 48.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 42.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Duck hunters in North Dakota will find fewer wetlands after the summer turned dry. The state Game and Fish Department’s annual fall wetland survey estimated the number of duck hunting wetlands holding water as being almost the same as last year’s estimate, but still 29% below the 2003-2022 long-term average. As of Oct. 5, nearly half of North Dakota was in drought. The number of duck hunting type wetlands -- seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands -- counted statewide during the fall survey was the sixth lowest since 2003. The northern edge of the state was 29% to 40% behind long-term averages. The northeastern region had its lowest number of duck hunting wetlands in 20 years. Some heavy rain has fallen since the survey was carried out in mid-September, so wetlands may be higher in some areas. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), Oct 13, 2023

All of northwest Alabama was in drought, and the forecast offered no chances of significant rain. Local authorities were pleading with the public to avoid outdoor burning. Times Daily (Florence, Ala.), Oct 13, 2023

Wisconsin crop yields were better than expected. A farmer noted that the stalk was shorter than normal, but the grain filled out well. Wisconsin farmers planted about 3.9 million acres of corn last year. Most was harvested for grain, but 880,000 acres were cut for silage. Drought may lead to more acres being cut for silage this year. Wisconsin State Journal (Madison), Oct 11, 2023

Nebraska hunters were reminded to exercise caution to prevent inadvertently sparking a wildfire as 27% of the state was in severe to exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. KFXL (Axtell, Neb.), Oct. 12, 2023

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening mainly over parts of eastern Nebraska. ...Central Plains... An upper low will continue to move slowly east across NE through tonight, with a 70-80 kt midlevel jet pushing east into IA and northern MO. At the surface, low pressure will fill as it moves east across the same areas. Storms have generally decreased in intensity this evening due to the cooling air mass, except for farther south into east-central KS in closer proximity to the surface warm plume. 00Z soundings downstream indicate minimal instability overall, with little additional destabilization expected as a cooling boundary layer counteracts any cooling aloft. Shear will remain strong over northern areas, but waning instability should limit the overall severe risk. As such, a Marginal Risk will remain over the area for sporadic hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell.. 10/13/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 13 00:53:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 13 00:53:01 UTC 2023.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122311
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to
middle part of next week. Thereafter, some gradual development is
possible while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 122310
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sean, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited and disorganized
in association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development of
this system early next week, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of the week while moving westward or
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg