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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A strong mid-level trough will move from the Plains to the Great Lakes later this week and amplify into a large trough across the eastern CONUS this weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding trough location and phasing, but a strong surface low may be possible near the Northeast this weekend. This should result in some dry and breezy conditions across much of the eastern CONUS later this week and this weekend, but temperatures should be cool, much of this area will see precipitation later this week, and fuels are moist. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Much of the extended period will be dry across the Southwest and southern Plains. Therefore, fuels are expected to dry, and with cooler temperature starting to arrive, finer fuels may start to become dormant in some areas. Therefore, there may be at least somewhat receptive fuels when the next mid-level trough crosses the Southwest early next week. This trough is expected to bring low-elevation rain and mountain snow, but there may be a period in the 12 to 24 hours ahead of trough arrival where there may be some increased fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The power plant in Osceola, Arkansas has not been producing hydropower for the past three weeks because not enough Mississippi River water was passing through the intake pipes. ABC News (New York), Oct 16, 2023

The lack of rain in Cullman County caused an apple orchard to lose at least two-thirds of the apple crop. Only Fuji apples produced a crop this year, but even those were not abundant. Other orchards in central Alabama experienced the same. WVTM-TV 13 (Birmingham, Ala.), Oct 16, 2023

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Oct 2023 02:34:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Oct 2023 02:34:10 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2023 000 FONT14 KNHC 160233 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2023 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160233 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Sean Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2023 ...SEAN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 49.3W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Sean was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 49.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected overnight and Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Sean is expected to dissipate into an open trough by Monday night or Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg

...SEAN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 15 the center of Sean was located near 18.2, -49.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2023 000 WTNT24 KNHC 160232 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 49.3W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 49.3W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 48.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.4N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.7N 53.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 49.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 16 00:57:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 16 00:57:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... With a surface cold front now clearing the far southeastern tip of Florida (southeastern Dade County) and the Keys, and thunder potential overnight will remain offshore. Elsewhere, with dry/stable air spilling across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. and a ridge prevailing over the West, no thunderstorms are expected through the rest of the period. ..Goss.. 10/16/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity extending several hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form in a few days while moving slowly westward and then
northwestward well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico by the middle of the week. Gradual
development of the disturbance will be possible, and a tropical
depression could form late this week as the system meanders over
the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Sean, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity.
Although the environment may not support much development during
the next couple of days, conditions are expected to become more
conducive thereafter, and a tropical depression is still likely to
form mid to late week while moving westward or west-northwestward
across the central and western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the top of a mid-level ridge across the northern Rockies on Tuesday and amplify as it moves southeast into the eastern CONUS for the end of the week. As this occurs, an area of surface low-pressure will develop across the Plains and eventually move into the eastern CONUS. Breezy conditions will accompany this surface low, but relatively cool temperatures should keep relative humidity somewhat higher. Fuels remain moist across much of the CONUS, particularly where the dry and breezy conditions will be present. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal for the extended period. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Oct 2023 02:32:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Oct 2023 02:32:48 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2023 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150231 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sean Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2023 Deep convection continues to burst near Sean's center, and as a result, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain T2.0/30 kt. In addition, a recent ASCAT-B pass showed winds a little over 25 kt, and all these estimates support maintaining Sean as a 30-kt tropical depression. With relatively low vertical shear, warm sea surface temperatures of 28-29 degrees Celsius, and an unstable atmosphere, the environment is just conducive enough for additional bursts of convection. The biggest limiting factor is a lack of mid-level moisture, with relative humidities running about 50 percent. Consequently, the convection is likely to become less persistent and less organized, and global models indicate that Sean's small circulation should open up into a trough over the next day or two. The NHC forecast shows Sean degenerating into a remnant low in 24 hours and then dissipating by 48 hours, but it's also possible that the system remains a tropical depression right up until it opens up into a trough. Sean continues to move northwestward, or 305/7 kt. As it becomes a weaker system, the depression is expected to become increasingly steered by lower-level ridging. As a result, Sean is expected to turn west-northwestward overnight and then westward by early Monday, just before or as it degenerates into a trough. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous prediction and the latest TVCA multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 16.9N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.3N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 17.7N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 18.1N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg