Aggregator

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 19 2023 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200243 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 19 2023 ...TAMMY SLOWING DOWN AND REORGANIZING... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOMORROW FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 57.1W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ENE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Maarten has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Maarten. The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Guadeloupe * Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches and warnings could be required tomorrow. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 57.1 West. Tammy is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn to the northwest with some additional slowdown is forecast on Friday, and this motion should continue through Saturday. A more northward motion is forecast to begin Saturday night or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday and Saturday, and then move north of the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday. Data from the NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected to begin on Friday and continue into this weekend. Tammy is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity when it moves near the Leeward Islands Friday night and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning tomorrow. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands Friday night and Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning tomorrow. RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches Northern Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy moves across the Leeward Islands. SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200242 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 57.1W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 90SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 57.1W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 56.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.3N 58.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.3N 59.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.6N 61.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.7N 62.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 57.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Oct 2023 02:41:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Oct 2023 03:31:26 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 200241 TCDEP2 Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 The eye of Norma is no longer evident on conventional geostationary satellite imagery, but could still be seen on a recent SSMI/S microwave pass. Deep convection remains very strong near the estimated center with some cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. A few convective banding features are evident over the northern portion of the circulation, and upper-level outflow is still strong over most sectors of the system. The current intensity is set at 105 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of various subjective and objective satellite estimates. This is in best agreement with a recent AI-based objective Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS. For the next couple of days, Norma's environment will be characterized by increasing south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with a broad upper-level trough near the Baja California peninsula, along with a drier mid-level air mass. These factors should cause gradual weakening while the system nears southern Baja California Sur, but it is likely that Norma will still be a hurricane when it moves near or over that area. The official intensity forecast is on the higher side of the model guidance during the early part of the forecast period, but close to the corrected model consensus, HCCA at 48 hours and beyond. Although the center fixes are a little more uncertain than earlier today, the initial motion does not appear to have changed much and is around 350/6 kt. Over the next few days, Norma is expected to move between a mid-level high to its east and a trough to the northwest and north. The track guidance models, especially the more reliable ones, have come into a little better agreement, and the NHC forecast track is close to the simple dynamical model consensus. This is also close to the previous official forecast. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the far southern portion of the Baja California peninsula, where Norma is expected to bring hurricane conditions on Saturday when it passes near or over the area. 2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern portions of California Baja Sur on late Friday, continuing through Sunday This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.2N 108.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.2N 108.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 23.2N 109.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 23.8N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 24.4N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 25.3N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 200240 PWSEP2 HURRICANE NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 23(27) 52(79) 9(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 3( 3) 30(33) 13(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 20(23) 52(75) 13(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 2( 2) 26(28) 18(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) LA PAZ 34 1 7( 8) 24(32) 17(49) 8(57) X(57) X(57) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) CULIACAN 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18) ISLAS MARIAS 34 5 13(18) 5(23) 2(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) ISLAS MARIAS 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 3 5( 8) 7(15) 4(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 65 25(90) 1(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 110W 50 5 29(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 110W 64 1 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 12 11(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 200240 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 ...NORMA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 108.1W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Los Barriles to La Paz * North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 108.1 West. Norma is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slower northward to northeastward motion is forecast later this weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach the southern portion of Baja California on Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is expected during the next few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near the southern portion of Baja California. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias Friday and Friday night, and in the watch areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday. RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far southern portion of Baja California Sur. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NORMA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 the center of Norma was located near 18.2, -108.1 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 200239 TCMEP2 HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 108.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.8N 109.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.4N 108.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.3N 106.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 108.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 20 02:00:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 20 02:00:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Update... Scattered thunderstorm development has been increasing in a general corridor near/southwest of Louisville KY into areas around the Nashville TN vicinity. This is in the wake of an initial mid-level perturbation shifting from the lower Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes, and ahead of another strengthening impulse forecast to continue digging southeast of the Upper Midwest through the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by late tonight. Aided by a narrow corridor of modest low-level moistening, within a zone of enhanced low-level warm advection, it appears that ongoing activity may slowly spread eastward across portions of central Kentucky and middle Tennessee through 03-05Z before diminishing. Overnight, additional thunderstorm development is possible as forcing for ascent refocuses southeastward into the southern Appalachians vicinity. Despite the presence of at least modest shear, it still appears that thermodynamic profiles characterized by only modest steepening of lapse rates, coupled with the limited moisture return, will minimize the risk for severe hail and/or wind. ..Kerr.. 10/20/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200014
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norma, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system meanders or drifts
generally northward over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200014
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norma, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system meanders or drifts
generally northward over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192337
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tammy, located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend in the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of
this system is possible before it moves inland over Central America
by the early to middle portion of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Hot, dry weather at the end of the growing season resulted in corn yields that were lower than expected. The October NASS corn yield estimates were several bushels per acre lower than the previous two months. The lower yield estimates for the Western Corn Belt led to the lower national corn yield estimate of 173.0 bpa in the October NASS report. Late season drought and heat in 2000 and 2010 also brought the yield down at the end of the season. DTN – Progressive Farmer (Burnsville, Minn.), Oct 19, 2023

An ethanol plant in Laddonia needed feedstocks because the yield of the corn grown in the vicinity of the plant was about 50% of normal, due to drought. A lot of corn had already been transported to the plant from other parts of Missouri. For a time, the Laddonia ethanol plant was offering 60 cents more than grain elevators along the Mississippi River at St. Louis. This was a highly unusual marketing strategy to get farmers to sell their corn to the plant rather than elsewhere. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Oct 13, 2023

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Oct 2023 02:56:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Oct 2023 03:22:49 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 18 2023 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190255 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 18 2023 Tammy's center remains difficult to pinpoint this evening. While a persistent area of deep convection continues to be present near and to the south of the estimated center, an SSMIS microwave pass that came in after the prior advisory suggested the tropical storm still has poor structural organization with some vertical tilt. It is possible the center remains somewhat elongated or it could be attempting to redevelop further into the deep convection. The initial intensity will remain 35 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with the TAFB subjective intensity estimate at 00 UTC. Data from NOAA-P3 and Air Force reconnaissance missions, set to take off tomorrow, will be helpful to better diagnose Tammy's structure. The motion continues to be more uncertain than usual given the current structure. The tropical storm still appears to be moving westward, but is starting to slow down at 270/15 kt. A well-established mid-level ridge is steering Tammy westward currently, but it is expected to gradually erode as a sharp mid-latitude trough swings off the Eastern U.S. seaboard in the next couple of days. The net result of this pattern change is that Tammy is forecast to slow down and begin turning gradually poleward toward the west-northwest and northwest in the next 2-3 days. Beyond that time, Tammy is forecast to move northward and may begin to recurve into the open Atlantic by the end of the forecast. As mentioned previously, the guidance generally agrees on this scenario, but there are significant track details related to the model-depicted vertical depth of Tammy and how sharp of a turn northward the storm makes. There are also along-track differences too, with the ECMWF much faster than the latest GFS forecast. Compared to the previous cycle, the guidance has shifted eastward and is a bit slower too, and the NHC track was shifted in that direction, roughly in between the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN. The intensity forecast is somewhat tricky. SHIPS diagnosed shear from the GFS and ECMWF is currently light to moderate, between 10-20 kt out of the northwest. The GFS-based SHIPS suggests this shear could even lower some over the next 24-48 h. The lower shear, combined with very warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures could potentially promote significant intensification. However, the potential for any intensification is dependent on the storm structure, which remains more uncertain than usual given the lack of recent high resolution microwave or scatterometer data. To add to the uncertainty, the most recent HAFS-A/B runs show little to no intensification, and in fact appear to lose the vortex in their inner-nest beyond 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show intensification to around 55 kt over the next 36 h, but only more gradual intensification thereafter, assuming that moderate vertical wind shear will keep the storm in check. This forecast is near or just above the consensus aids. However, this could end up on the conservative side if Tammy is able to become more vertically aligned in the short-term, as suggested by the latest GFS and HWRF forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning on Friday. Tropical storm watches are currently in effect for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and Guadeloupe, and additional watches or warnings will likely be required on Thursday. 2. Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the northern Windward and Leeward Islands on Friday, spreading into the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 13.0N 53.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 13.2N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 13.7N 56.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 14.3N 58.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 15.4N 60.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 16.8N 61.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 18.4N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 22.0N 63.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 27.5N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Oct 2023 02:53:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Oct 2023 03:28:52 GMT