Aggregator

...OTIS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 the center of Otis was located near 13.6, -97.9 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 240237 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 ...OTIS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 97.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Otis. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 97.9 West. Otis is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Otis is expected to be near hurricane strength before it reaches southern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area beginning Tuesday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the southern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240236 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.9W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.9W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 97.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.4N 98.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.5N 98.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.4N 99.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.3N 100.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 97.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Oct 2023 02:33:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Oct 2023 03:28:47 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 000 WTNT41 KNHC 240233 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212023 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 It has been a challenge to find the center of the depression this evening. Surface observations from Bluefields Airport in Nicaragua indicated that the center of the depression likely moved northeast of the observing station earlier this evening, but pressures in the area were not particularly low. Since then, a robust mid-level circulation has been visible in shortwave-infrared imagery, but it isn't clear if this extends to the surface. ASCAT data is expected within the next couple of hours, which should provide clarity over whether the center of the depression has reformed under the mid-level circulation, or if has already moved inland. TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates still support an intensity near 25 kt. Once inland, the depression should quickly weaken and dissipate. However, its worth noting that if the center is still over water and remains there for any period of time overnight, some slight strengthening could occur since the environment is otherwise favorable for intensification. The long-term estimated motion is around 310/4 kt, but this is highly uncertain. The depression, or its remnants, are forecast to continue northwestward tonight, and then generally head westward toward the eastern Pacific after that. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from the depression will continue to impact portions of Nicaragua through Tuesday night with heavy rainfall spreading into Honduras during the day on Tuesday. This rainfall is likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 12.4N 83.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 13.1N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Oct 2023 02:33:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Oct 2023 03:22:47 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 000 FONT11 KNHC 240232 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 000 WTNT21 KNHC 240232 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 83.4W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 83.4W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.1N 84.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 83.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 000 WTNT31 KNHC 240232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212023 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 ...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 83.4W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 83.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. On the forecast track, the depression will move inland over the next few hours over eastern Nicaragua. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast. The depression is forecast to dissipate inland over Nicaragua tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches across Nicaragua and 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across southern and eastern Honduras. These rains are likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 the center of Twenty-one was located near 12.4, -83.4 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 000 FONT15 KNHC 240231 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 9(25) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 23 2023 000 WTNT45 KNHC 240231 TCDAT5 Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 23 2023 Microwave data from multiple polar-orbiting satellites received during the last few hours indicate that Tammy still has a well-organized low- to mid-level circulation, even as its deep convection is getting sheared northward. The most recent TAFB Dvorak classification was a 4.0/65 kt, which supports maintaining Tammy as a hurricane. While Tammy's future path remains unusually unclear, especially at the 4-5 day range, very little change was made to the official track forecast. The hurricane is currently moving north-northeastward, and it should get steered northward starting in about 2 days as the hurricane interacts with a mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest. The uncertainty in the forecast increases considerably after that point as Tammy will likely reach a col point in the steering flow over the western Atlantic. Many models and ensemble members indicate another mid-latitude trough will cause the cyclone to begin to accelerate eastward or northeastward. However, it appears equally likely that Tammy will then turn westward or southwestward under the influence of a mid-level ridge that should build behind the second trough. With no clear reason to support one solution or another, the NHC track forecast is unchanged for now. It remains near the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF through about 72 h, and then favors the ECMWF and ECENS mean after that. Conversely, the intensity forecast appears to be more straightforward. Most of the intensity guidance indicates that slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, as Tammy gets a convective boost while interacting with an upper-level trough. However, after about 48 h, it should begin to weaken and transition to a post-tropical cyclone. Based on simulated satellite imagery, this process is expected to complete in about 72 h, though Tammy will likely continue to produce gale- to storm-force winds for several days thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 22.9N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 23.6N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 24.7N 60.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 26.5N 59.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 28.5N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 30.0N 58.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 31.1N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/0000Z 32.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 29/0000Z 32.5N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 23 2023 000 WTNT35 KNHC 240231 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 23 2023 ...TAMMY STILL A HURRICANE AS IT HEADS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 63.1W ABOUT 655 MI...1060 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 63.1 West. Tammy is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north at a slower forward speed is forecast to begin on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two. Weakening is expected after that. Tammy is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches) based on data from a NOAA Saildrone. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...TAMMY STILL A HURRICANE AS IT HEADS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 23 the center of Tammy was located near 22.9, -63.1 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 000 WTNT25 KNHC 240231 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 63.1W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 63.1W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 63.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.6N 62.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.7N 60.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 59.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.5N 58.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.0N 58.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 140SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.1N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 130SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 32.0N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 32.5N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 63.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 24 02:32:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Areas affected...Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 240227Z - 240530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Elevated supercells may develop in the next 2-3 hours. These storms will be capable of large hail (1.5-2 in.). A watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Subtle signs of lift are evident in parts of west-central/northwest Iowa on IR satellite imagery. The KOAX VAD is showing the low-level jet at around 40 kts already this evening. This is expected to increase into the overnight. Lift along a warm front will eventually support potentially scattered elevated thunderstorm development within the next 2-3 hours. The 00Z observed OAX sounding showed very steep mid-level lapse rates. Though more muted, these lapse rates also extend into Iowa/Minnesota per this evenings DVN/MPX soundings. Mid/upper-level winds are strong enough to support long hodographs and 35-40 kt of effective shear. The strongest storms will be supercellular and capable of large hail (1.5-2 in.). Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a watch is possible this evening. ..Wendt.. 10/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 44049223 43919483 43719570 43149635 42389651 41989635 41909551 42159468 42589272 43019151 43539134 43859145 44049223 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered large hail will be possible late this evening into the overnight across northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and eastward into Wisconsin. ...Synopsis... A split flow upper-air pattern is forecast tonight over the western half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a large-scale trough rotating across southern CA and Baja California. In the low levels, a warm front will advance north across portions of the Midwest as an elongated warm air conveyor belt extends from the southern Great Plains arcing north-northeast into the Great Lakes. ...IA/MN/WI... Latest surface observations show the northern periphery of richer moisture has moved into western IA/eastern NE. The 00z Omaha raob featured 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. The LLJ is forecast to intensify this evening and focus large-scale ascent mainly in the form of isentropic ascent/warm-air advection in the vicinity of the warm front. Recent time-lagged HRRR model runs indicate isolated to scattered storms developing farther west and near the MO River by late this evening. This activity seems to favor a west-east corridor across northern IA and perhaps far southern MN. Given the favorable lapse rates and deep-layer shear profiles supporting the potential for updraft rotation, have introduced a small 15-percent hail probability (Slight Risk). ...Rio Grande/western part of the Edwards Plateau... The 00z Del Rio raob showed relatively weak lapse rates above the boundary layer, indicative of moisture via decayed TC remnants. Despite the lack of lightning and weak updraft development through early evening, a low probability for a strong updraft could materialize later tonight across this region as southerly 850-mb flow strengthens. However, it seems the risk for severe will be limited by overall weak buoyancy/lapse rates. ..Smith.. 10/24/2023 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232328
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Tammy, located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward
Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-One,
located near the coast of Nicaragua.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-One are issued under
WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-One are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Otis, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico.

South of Central America and Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days
over the far eastern Pacific, partially related to the remnants of
Atlantic Tropical Depression Twenty-One which are forecast to move
into the region. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system by late this week or this weekend while
the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake