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Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 000 FONT15 KNHC 230236 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT JOHN 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 230236 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.3N 108.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 109.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 000 WTNT25 KNHC 230236 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 64.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 64.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 63.8W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 63.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.5N 63.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.2N 62.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.3N 60.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.6N 59.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 29.6N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 30.5N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 64.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 22 2023 000 WTNT35 KNHC 230236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 22 2023 ...HEAVY RAINS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 64.0W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 64.0 West. Tammy is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected late tonight, followed by a north-northeast or northeast motion on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across portions of the British Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands, and the northern Windward Islands into Monday morning, bringing storm total maximum amounts to 12 inches in the Leeward Islands. These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...HEAVY RAINS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 22 the center of Tammy was located near 20.8, -64.0 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northern CA. This feature will move southeast along the CA/NV border by early Monday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany this upper-level feature. Farther east, a strengthening central Great Plains LLJ will focus a zone of low-level warm-air advection from eastern KS into IA. Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible tonight within the aforementioned corridor. Surface high pressure centered over the Upper OH Valley and encompassing much of the East will lead to tranquil conditions. ..Smith.. 10/23/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222341
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Norma, located over the southern Gulf of California, and on
Tropical Storm Otis, located several hundred miles south-southeast
of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Otis are issued
under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Otis are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222339
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Tammy, located just north of the northern Leeward Islands.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for
development, and a tropical depression could form before the system
moves inland over Nicaragua by early Tuesday. Regardless of
development, this system could produce heavy rains over portions of
Central America during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220259 TCDAT5 Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023 Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, along with radar imagery from Guadeloupe, indicate that the center of Tammy passed over the island of Barbuda a couple of hours ago. The hurricane continues to produce intense convection in a small CDO feature with some ill-defined bands north and northeast of the center. The eyewall has generally not been closed on the radar images. There are still some areas of strong convection affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles to the south of Tammy. Flight-level and SFMR winds along with Doppler velocity data suggested that the maximum winds had decreased slightly, but there was an unofficial report of a sustained wind of 78 kt from Barbuda. Based on a blend of the aircraft data and the Barbuda observation, the intensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory. Center fixes indicate that the hurricane continues on its north-northwestward trek with an estimated motion of 330/9 kt. Over the next couple of days, Tammy should turn northward while it moves along the western side of a large subtropical high. Then, the system should turn, at least temporarily, northeastward on the southeastern periphery of a mid-tropospheric trough over the western Atlantic. Beginning around 3 days, the track forecast becomes challenging, since the global models indicate that the western Atlantic trough will bypass Tammy after 72 hours while it continues eastward. A ridge could then build in to the northwest of the system and cause it to turn to the left. As noted earlier, there is a very large spread in the track guidance in the latter part of the forecast period. There is low confidence in the 4- and 5-day NHC forecast positions. Tammy should remain over very warm waters with moderate vertical wind shear for the next couple of days. So, some slight strengthening is still forecast. By 60 or 72 hours, increasing shear is likely to induce a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northern Leeward Islands through early Sunday. 2. The heaviest rains from Tammy will continue over the Leeward Islands through Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 17.8N 61.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 18.8N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 20.2N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 21.5N 63.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 22.6N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 23.1N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 23.5N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 25.0N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 27.5N 63.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Oct 2023 02:58:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Oct 2023 03:22:53 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220257 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023 ...TAMMY JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BARBUDA... ...CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 61.9W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF BARBUDA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Antigua, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 61.9 West. Tammy is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move north of the northern Leeward Islands by Sunday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the British Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with storm total maximum amounts of 12 inches Martinique and Dominica: Additional 2 to 4 inches, storm total maximum 6 inches British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches with maximum storm total amounts of 4 inches These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 000 FONT15 KNHC 220257 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PONCE PR 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) SAINT JOHN 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 2(15) 2(17) X(17) SAINT CROIX 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) SAINT MAARTEN 34 41 7(48) 2(50) 2(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) SAINT MAARTEN 50 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) SAINT MAARTEN 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SABA 34 10 5(15) 3(18) 2(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) ST EUSTATIUS 34 14 4(18) 3(21) 1(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 16 2(18) 3(21) 1(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AVES 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) DOMINICA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220256 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 61.9W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 61.9W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.8N 62.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.2N 63.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 63.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.6N 63.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.1N 63.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 25.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 27.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 61.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Oct 2023 02:45:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Oct 2023 03:29:00 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220244 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Norma continues to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this evening. The satellite depiction of the ill-defined low-level center has been difficult to track through the terrain as the system has decoupled from the mid-level center. Infrared satellite imagery indicates that there continues to be bursts of convection on the northwest side. The land interaction, increasingly southerly shear and dry air is causing Norma to weaken. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates for this advisory range from 55 to 60 kt. Given the current satellite depiction and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 55 kt. The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward or 30 degrees at 5 kt. The system will move across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through tonight. Norma should emerge over the southern Gulf of California early Sunday, then move northeastward to east-northeastward and make landfall along the coast of Sinaloa in western Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Norma is expected to continue weakening due to the aforementioned vertical wind shear, drier air, and land interaction. Once Norma moves inland over mainland Mexico, it will quickly dissipate over the high terrain. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory. The official forecast shows a 48 hour remnant low point for continuity, however it is possible that the system could be dissipated by that time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact southern portions of Baja California Sur through Sunday, and through Sinaloa into Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue through tonight within the Tropical Storm Warning area over the southern Baja California peninsula. 3. Norma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the west coast of mainland Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning early Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 23.5N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 24.1N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 23/0000Z 24.5N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 24.9N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0000Z 25.2N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220243 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 3 15(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 220243 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 109.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to San Evaristo * Topolobampo to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 109.7 West. Norma is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion should continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Norma is expected to continue moving across the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight. Norma is forecast to move toward the west coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday and move inland within the tropical storm warning area on Sunday night or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Norma is expected to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the west coast of mainland Mexico by early Sunday. RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and through Sinaloa into Monday. These rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220242 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 109.7W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 240SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 109.7W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.1N 109.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N 108.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.9N 107.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.2N 106.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 109.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 22 02:26:02 UTC 2023.