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Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 190252 PWSEP2 HURRICANE NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 43(72) 2(74) 1(75) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 2(33) 1(34) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 19(25) 43(68) 3(71) 1(72) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 3(30) 1(31) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 31(40) 8(48) 2(50) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 10(15) 9(24) 4(28) 3(31) 1(32) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 4(22) 3(25) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 2(17) 1(18) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 2 19(21) 44(65) 17(82) 3(85) X(85) 1(86) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 24(43) 3(46) 1(47) X(47) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 10(12) 18(30) 8(38) 3(41) 1(42) X(42) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 190252 TCDEP2 Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Norma's rapid intensification continues. Microwave imagery from late this afternoon indicated that a very well-defined low- to mid-level eye has formed with a surrounding ring of shallow to moderate convection associated with rapid intensification. While that eye is not yet visible in conventional satellite imagery, subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 77 kt and 90 kt, respectively, while recent objective evaluations from UW-CIMSS range from about 75 kt to 85 kt. Based on the whole of the data, the intensity for Norma has been raised to 80 kt. For the next 24 to 36 hours, the forecast for Norma appears to be relatively straightforward. Continued rapid strengthening appears likely tonight based on Norma's convective structure and the conducive surrounding environment. The hurricane should continue moving generally northward during that time, steered by a weak mid-level ridge to the east of Norma and an upper-level trough to its northwest. Short-term fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles will become possible starting tonight, but confidence in the forecast is reasonably high through 36 h. After that time, the uncertainty grows considerably. Southwesterly upper-level flow associated with the aforementioned upper-level trough will continue, but the mid- to lower-level steering will likely become light or even switch to northerly. The resulting increase in shear should cause Norma to weaken, but the rate of that weakening remains in doubt. As long as the hurricane retains its vertical depth, upper-level flow should keep it moving northward. However, once Norma weakens to the point that its steering is dominated by low- to mid-level flow, its forward speed should slow down considerably. It is possible, therefore, that Norma will stall just south of Baja California peninsula, a solution favored by the deterministic ECMWF and a number of its ensemble members. However, the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B, HMON, and HWRF), which should resolve the structure of Norma better than a global model, all indicate that the hurricane will retain its depth long enough to reach the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track and intensity forecasts favor the regional models, blending their latest consensus with the previous forecast to try to maintain continuity. The updated official track forecast is slightly faster than the previous one, but is generally similar despite the high uncertainty. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required for portions of the Baja California peninsula later tonight, and interests there should continue to monitor updates on Norma, especially since larger-than-normal changes to the forecast are possible due to the high uncertainty in this case. Key Messages: 1. Norma is forecast to continue rapidly strengthening tonight while it passes well offshore of southwestern Mexico. 2. There is a greater than normal uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts for Norma later this week and this weekend when it is expected to approach the Baja California peninsula and western Mexico. Regardless of Norma's exact track or intensity, there is an increasing threat of wind and rainfall impacts to southern portions of Baja California Sur by Saturday, and watches could be required there later tonight or on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.2N 108.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 18.3N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 23.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 190251 TCMEP2 HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 108.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 108.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 190251 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 ...NORMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 108.0W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Norma. Watches could be required for portions of the area tonight or on Thursday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 108.0 West. Norma is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated for the next couple of days. A slower motion is forecast is expected by the weekend. On the forecast track, Norma could approach the southern portion of Baja California on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight. Slight weakening is forecast to begin late this week or over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico and toward Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...NORMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 the center of Norma was located near 16.4, -108.0 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 000 FONT15 KNHC 190249 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 1(21) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 13(27) 1(28) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 13(29) 1(30) SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) 1(24) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 11(53) 1(54) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) 1(21) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 8(48) 1(49) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 7(51) 1(52) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 40(48) 5(53) X(53) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) X(19) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 45(57) 5(62) X(62) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) X(23) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 32(40) 2(42) X(42) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 31(60) 2(62) X(62) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) X(21) X(21) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 2(19) 1(20) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 25(31) 15(46) 1(47) X(47) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) BARBADOS 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 18 2023 312 WTNT35 KNHC 190249 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 18 2023 ...TAMMY STARTING TO SLOW DOWN... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 53.1W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * Dominica * Martinique and Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight or on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 53.1 West. Tammy is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward motion with an additional slow down is expected on Thursday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Thursday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and Tammy could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning on Friday. RAINFALL: Through Saturday night, Tammy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Windward into the Leeward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches are expected for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...TAMMY STARTING TO SLOW DOWN... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 18 the center of Tammy was located near 13.0, -53.1 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 999 WTNT25 KNHC 190248 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 53.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 53.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 52.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.2N 55.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.7N 56.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.3N 58.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.4N 60.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.8N 61.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.4N 62.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 63.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 53.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 19 02:19:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 19 02:19:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Update... Convection, beneath the mid-level cold core of the low digging to the east-southeast of the mid Missouri Valley, briefly produced some lightning during the late afternoon near the western Minnesota/Iowa border vicinity. However, this appeared largely supported by destabilization associated with insolation, and has diminished with the loss of daytime heating. More recently, some lightning has been noted within the convective band ahead of the trailing short wave trough, along an associated weak southeastward advancing cold front, to the west-northwest of Springfield MO. While this convective band could generate additional lightning as it spreads eastward across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys overnight, it appears that this will be rather sporadic and sparse, with destabilization forecast to remain limited by only modest steepening of mid/upper lapse rates and weak boundary-layer moisture return. ..Kerr.. 10/19/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on strengthening
Hurricane Norma, located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a few disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system during the next couple
of days is expected to be slow to occur. However, environmental
conditions are expected to become more favorable for development
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week. The disturbance is forecast to meander
for the next several days and then drift northward or northwestward
starting on Sunday or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABNT20 KNHC 182316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Tammy, located several hundred miles east of the
Windward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Tammy are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Tammy are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Grape yields were lower than usual in Shenandoah Valley, but the fruit quality was better, according to local growers. Drought also mitigated diseases and pests, so less spraying was needed. The Northern Virginia Daily (Strasburg, Va.), Oct 16, 2023

Deciduous trees in Mississippi were dropping their leaves early, due to drought. WJTV TV 12 (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 17, 2023