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Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2023 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150231 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sean Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2023 Deep convection continues to burst near Sean's center, and as a result, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain T2.0/30 kt. In addition, a recent ASCAT-B pass showed winds a little over 25 kt, and all these estimates support maintaining Sean as a 30-kt tropical depression. With relatively low vertical shear, warm sea surface temperatures of 28-29 degrees Celsius, and an unstable atmosphere, the environment is just conducive enough for additional bursts of convection. The biggest limiting factor is a lack of mid-level moisture, with relative humidities running about 50 percent. Consequently, the convection is likely to become less persistent and less organized, and global models indicate that Sean's small circulation should open up into a trough over the next day or two. The NHC forecast shows Sean degenerating into a remnant low in 24 hours and then dissipating by 48 hours, but it's also possible that the system remains a tropical depression right up until it opens up into a trough. Sean continues to move northwestward, or 305/7 kt. As it becomes a weaker system, the depression is expected to become increasingly steered by lower-level ridging. As a result, Sean is expected to turn west-northwestward overnight and then westward by early Monday, just before or as it degenerates into a trough. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous prediction and the latest TVCA multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 16.9N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.3N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 17.7N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 18.1N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 15 2023 608 FONT14 KNHC 150231 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 15 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2023 635 WTNT34 KNHC 150231 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sean Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2023 ...SEAN HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 45.5W ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sean was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 45.5 West. Sean is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the west by early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Sean could become a remnant low on Sunday and then is forecast to dissipate on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...SEAN HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 14 the center of Sean was located near 16.9, -45.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 15 2023 000 WTNT24 KNHC 150230 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 45.5W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 45.5W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 45.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.3N 46.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.7N 48.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 50.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 45.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 15 00:48:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 15 00:48:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0724 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather threat has ended over the eastern North Carolina vicinty. Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. through the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... A surface low now in the vicinity of southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay will move offshore this evening, as mid-level short-wave troughing continues to move eastward across the central Appalachians. Earlier warm-sector convection over far eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks has moved offshore, and with it, any potential for stronger storms. As such, MRGL risk is being removed from the outlook at this time. A few lightning strikes will remain possible, however, across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms may persist this evening over South Florida, while lightning is not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through 15/12Z. ..Goss.. 10/15/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142328
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Subsequent
development of the system is likely, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the middle to latter part of next week while
the system meanders well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Guatemala and El Salvador:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador by the middle of next week. Gradual
development of the disturbance will be possible after that while the
system meanders over the far eastern portion of the eastern North
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142305
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Sean, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have become less organized since this morning. However,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form within the next couple of days while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward across the central and western
tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The beginning of the extended forecast period will feature a large high pressure center across the Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest on Monday will traverse the top of the ridge across the northern Rockies and amplify as it moves southeast into the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, an area of surface low-pressure will develop across the Plains and eventually move into the eastern CONUS. Breezy conditions will accompany this surface low, but relatively cool temperatures should keep relative humidity somewhat higher. Fuels remain moist across much of the CONUS, particularly where the dry and breezy conditions will be present. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal for the extended period. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2023 000 WTNT44 KNHC 140238 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sean Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2023 Sean is still showing signs of life with a recent burst of convection in the northeast quadrant obscuring the surface circulation. Unfortunately, no new satellite surface wind data is available this evening. Objective and subjective Dvorak estimates range between 25-45 kt. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt, which is closest to the TAFB final T-number of T2.5. The storm has noticeably slowed since the last advisory, with an estimated motion of 290/7 kt. The model guidance continues to insist Sean will turn northwestward on the southwest side of a weak ridge over the eastern Atlantic. However, this has yet to occur. As the cyclone weakens and becomes more shallow, it is expected to bend back to west-northwest. Once again, the latest NHC track forecast was shifted south of the previous prediction, and favors the southern side of the guidance envelope due to the recent northward bias of the models. There have been no changes to the official intensity forecast. Sean is expected to continue to weaken in the relatively hostile atmospheric conditions and become a remnant low later this weekend. Most model guidance shows the storm opening into a trough early next week, and the NHC forecast shows dissipation on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.1N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.8N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 16.7N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 17.5N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 18.0N 47.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1200Z 18.4N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 14 2023 000 FONT14 KNHC 140237 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 0300 UTC SAT OCT 14 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 14 2023 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140237 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 0300 UTC SAT OCT 14 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 42.9W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 42.9W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 42.6W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 43.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.7N 44.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 46.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.0N 47.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.4N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 42.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2023 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140237 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sean Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2023 ...SEAN MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 42.9W ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1355 MI...2175 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sean was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 42.9 West. Sean is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected soon, and this motion should continue for the next day or so. Sean is then expected to turn back toward the west-northwest by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is anticipated, and Sean will likely become a post-tropical remnant low over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...SEAN MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 13 the center of Sean was located near 15.1, -42.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

...SEAN MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 13 the center of Sean was located near 15.1, -42.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

...SEAN MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 13 the center of Sean was located near 15.1, -42.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

...SEAN MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 13 the center of Sean was located near 15.1, -42.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 14 00:43:01 UTC 2023.