Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 12 01:53:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2239 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2239 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Areas affected...portions of northern and central Nebraska...southeastern South Dakota and west central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120150Z - 120415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Increasing low-level warm advection may support additional thunderstorms capable of isolated hail this evening. Confidence in storm coverage and severity is low and a watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 0140 UTC, regional IR satellite imagery showed cooling cloud tops along a band of convection across portions of the central Plains. Located along and north of a warm front emanating from a deepening lee low over eastern CO, convection is expected to continue to slowly deepen and increase in coverage near the frontal corridor through this evening and into the overnight hours. Area VADs and surface obs show low-level mass response ahead of the deepening low, along with a moderately strong low-level jet. Favored by the uptick in low and mid-level warm advection, forcing for ascent should continue to build this evening supporting additional storm development. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (~500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) along the warm front should support a few stronger updrafts. Bolstered by a band of westerly mid-level flow associated with the deepening low, 30-40 kt effective shear may also support some organization of these updrafts into sustained multicells or transient supercell structures. Generally north of the surface warm front and with nocturnal cooling ongoing at the surface, storms should remain elevated with the main risk being isolated hail with the more sustained/robust updrafts. Hi-res guidance varies on the degree of storm coverage/intensity through this evening, casting uncertainty on how widespread any severe risk will be. However, current radar and observational trends do suggest a few stronger storms with hail potential may evolve over north-central NE and spread into portions of southern SD and western IA tonight. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 41389491 41249657 41279934 41540048 41580061 42210136 43050101 43280048 43629845 43569762 43369652 43139586 42669435 42249336 41639310 41429388 41389491 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 12 00:52:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight over the western Florida Peninsula/coastal-bend region. Strong to severe thunderstorms over the central Plains and Midwest may be capable of marginal hail through late tonight. ...Much of the western FL Peninsula to the coastal FL Panhandle... A front currently extends across north-central FL, with cool and relatively stable air to the north. The 00Z JAX sounding shows poor lapse rates and no instability within this air mass. The TLH exhibits similar characteristics, north of the boundary. South of these areas, and where winds have a southerly component, upper 70s F dewpoints are contributing to modest instability, ahead of the developing areas of storms over the Gulf of Mexico. Shear profiles are strengthening across the entire area in anticipation of the approaching convectively enhanced low, and a few supercells perhaps with tornado risk will conditionally be possible with any storms that move ashore. This appears most likely late tonight from the Coastal Bend southeastward toward the Tampa Bay area as stronger instability develops with time. ...From NE into northern IL... The 00Z LBF sounding shows nearly 1000 J/kg MLCAPE present, with steep lapse rates aloft. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms currently extend from the western Panhandle into northeast CO. As the surface low deepens and low-level theta-e advection persists with backed boundary-layer winds, conditions should remain favorable for scattered storms to develop, with some likely producing hail. Large-scale ascent will remain favorable, with increasing storm coverage likely later this evening. Effective shear appears to further favor cellular storm modes which will be favorable for hail. Isolated strong gusts may also occur in proximity to the warm surface air near the warm front. ..Jewell.. 10/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight over the western Florida Peninsula/coastal-bend region. Strong to severe thunderstorms over the central Plains and Midwest may be capable of marginal hail through late tonight. ...Much of the western FL Peninsula to the coastal FL Panhandle... A front currently extends across north-central FL, with cool and relatively stable air to the north. The 00Z JAX sounding shows poor lapse rates and no instability within this air mass. The TLH exhibits similar characteristics, north of the boundary. South of these areas, and where winds have a southerly component, upper 70s F dewpoints are contributing to modest instability, ahead of the developing areas of storms over the Gulf of Mexico. Shear profiles are strengthening across the entire area in anticipation of the approaching convectively enhanced low, and a few supercells perhaps with tornado risk will conditionally be possible with any storms that move ashore. This appears most likely late tonight from the Coastal Bend southeastward toward the Tampa Bay area as stronger instability develops with time. ...From NE into northern IL... The 00Z LBF sounding shows nearly 1000 J/kg MLCAPE present, with steep lapse rates aloft. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms currently extend from the western Panhandle into northeast CO. As the surface low deepens and low-level theta-e advection persists with backed boundary-layer winds, conditions should remain favorable for scattered storms to develop, with some likely producing hail. Large-scale ascent will remain favorable, with increasing storm coverage likely later this evening. Effective shear appears to further favor cellular storm modes which will be favorable for hail. Isolated strong gusts may also occur in proximity to the warm surface air near the warm front. ..Jewell.. 10/12/2023 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112333
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sean, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some slow development over the next few days.
This system should move generally westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Sean are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on
Tropical Storm Sean are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112333
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in the early to middle
parts of next week. Thereafter, some gradual development is
possible as the system moves generally north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Oct 2023 20:37:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Oct 2023 21:23:06 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2023 000 WTNT44 KNHC 112036 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sean Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2023 Sean remains poorly organized this afternoon. Satellite images show a ragged convective pattern with the low-level center located on the west side of a fragmented curved band, a bit more north than previously estimated. The Dvorak estimates remain steady at T2.5/35 kt, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. However, as mentioned this morning, this wind speed estimate could be a little generous based on the earlier ASCAT pass. The storm is currently experiencing moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear, and may only have a brief opportunity to strengthen over the next couple of days before it moves into an environment of drier air by the end of the week. Over the weekend, another round of shear should cause Sean to ultimately weaken and then degenerate into a remnant low in 4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast has not changed much from the previous advisory and is within the guidance envelope. Sean is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt, and is expected to continue moving in this general direction over the next day or two. After 48 hours, the storm will begin to turn to the northwest as it moves along the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Over the weekend, a turn back to the west-northwest or west is anticipated as a low- to mid-level ridge re-establishes itself to the north of Sean and it becomes a more shallow cyclone. The NHC track forecast has been shifted northward of the previous one over the entire forecast period based on the initial position and subsequent model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 11.6N 35.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 12.1N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 12.7N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 13.4N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 14.3N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 15.3N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 16.4N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 18.1N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 18.7N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Camposano/Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 11 2023 000 FONT14 KNHC 112035 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 2100 UTC WED OCT 11 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CAMPOSANO/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2023 000 WTNT34 KNHC 112035 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sean Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2023 ...SEAN STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 35.3W ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sean was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 35.3 West. Sean is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Camposano/Cangialosi

...SEAN STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 11 the center of Sean was located near 11.6, -35.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 11 2023 000 WTNT24 KNHC 112034 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 2100 UTC WED OCT 11 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 35.3W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 35.3W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 34.9W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.1N 36.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.7N 38.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.4N 39.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.3N 41.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.3N 42.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.4N 43.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.1N 46.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.7N 50.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 35.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CAMPOSANO/CANGIALOSI

The Shenandoah city council voted to enact stage three water rationing as the town’s wells were low. Such rationing has not been needed in 23 years. Water levels were down 35%, based on a 5-year average. “In a normal year, we could run three or four wells and get the amount of water we’re getting currently,” according to the Shenandoah water superintendent. “But, since water levels are low due to the river being low — and no rain — we have to run all of the wells together at a lower setting.” KJAN AM-1220 & FM-101.1 (Atlantic, Iowa), Oct 11, 2023

Osceola was in a water emergency because the city’s only water source, West Lake, was five feet below normal. The city was exceeding safe withdrawal limits from the lake. It was prohibited to use water outdoors, except for fire and health hazard prevention. All commercial and industrial uses of water not essential in providing products or services was also prohibited. Water use not necessary for the preservation of life, or the general welfare of the community was also prohibited. Osceola officials also requested that the Southern Iowa Rural Water Association use another water source, if possible. KCCI TV 8 (Des Moines, Iowa), Oct 6, 2023

Some Spartanburg County customers of the Startex-Jackson-Wellford-Duncan Water District were surprised to find that their water was brown, due to the mineral content. Water was being drawn from deeper in Lyman Lake where the water has more minerals like iron and manganese. The water district switched to a secondary water source which should help with the discoloration. WSPA (Spartanburg, S.C.), Oct 3, 2023

Crops were about six weeks behind for a Picayune farm that grows pumpkins and corn for a maze. They aimed to plant the third week of July, but were not able to plant until Aug. 11. The lack of rain made the seeds slow to germinate and has forced the farm to push back its opening date several times. WLOX TV 13 (Biloxi, Miss.), Sept 29, 2023

The Little Rock Fire Department has had 83 calls for grass and wood fires in the month of September, which is unusual. KARK (Little Rock, Ark.), Oct 2, 2023

Permits for outdoor burning in Alabama were no longer being issued as of Oct. 6. Anyone burning a field, grassland, or woodland without a burn permit may be subject to prosecution for committing a Class B misdemeanor. Much of Alabama had seen an increase in wildfire activity. WSFA (Montgomery, Ala.), Oct 4, 2023

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Scattered storms are expected to develop later tonight over parts of the middle and lower Missouri Valley. Non-severe, diurnally driven storms over western TX are expected to wane this evening as the boundary layer cools. To the northeast, a band of elevated convection is forecast after 06Z from southeast NE into MO, in association with increasing theta-e advection with southwest 850 mb flow to 40 kt. Forecast soundings show cool midlevel temperatures, but overall marginal instability to support any hail over 1.00" diameter. While initial development could exhibit robust updrafts, effective shear does not appear to support anything long-lived enough to produce severe weather. ..Jewell.. 10/11/2023 Read more