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No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 13 00:53:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 13 00:53:01 UTC 2023.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122311
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to
middle part of next week. Thereafter, some gradual development is
possible while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 122310
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sean, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited and disorganized
in association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development of
this system early next week, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of the week while moving westward or
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

After an intense summer of drought that devastated a lot of the pumpkin crop in the Hartsburg area, farmers imported pumpkins for the upcoming festival to make sure that they had enough on hand. KRCG-TV (New Bloomfield, Mo.), Oct 12, 2023

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Oct 2023 20:35:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Oct 2023 21:23:03 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Oct 2023 20:35:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Oct 2023 21:23:03 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2023 000 WTNT44 KNHC 122033 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sean Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2023 Sean remains fairly disorganized on satellite imagery this afternoon. The low-level center is still exposed, however there has been a recent burst of convection closer to the center. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased since the previous cycle, with final-T numbers of T2.5/T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. These estimates are in fairly good agreement with the scatterometer data from earlier. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 35 kt. The tropical storm is moving at a slightly faster northwestward motion at 310/10 kt, gaining a little more latitude since this morning. A weak ridge to the northeast of the system will continue to steer Sean northwestward to west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. Model guidance remains in fairly good agreement with this scenario. There was a slight shift to the right in the short-term center positions to account for the slightly faster northwestward motion. Otherwise, the track forecast is similar to the previous and lies near the consensus aids. Westerly vertical wind shear is expected to persist over the system for the next day or so, before decreasing along Sean's forecast track. However, the system will be moving into an area with drier mid-level RH values, a more stable environment, and a less favorable upper-level wind pattern. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Sean could struggle to produce organized convection in the coming days. While small intensity fluctuations are possible, the NHC intensity forecast remains near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, keeping Sean a tropical storm for the next day or so, then weakening it back into a depression. Afterwards, the system is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low as it becomes devoid of convection, and dissipate into a trough by day 4. Although, some global models depict that these transitions could occur even sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 13.8N 38.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 14.5N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 15.5N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 16.8N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 18.0N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 19.0N 44.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z 19.9N 45.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 12 2023 000 FONT14 KNHC 122033 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 2100 UTC THU OCT 12 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 12 2023 000 WTNT24 KNHC 122032 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192023 2100 UTC THU OCT 12 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 38.2W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 38.2W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 37.8W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 41.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.8N 42.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.0N 43.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.0N 44.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.9N 45.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 38.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2023 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122032 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sean Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192023 500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2023 ...SEAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 38.2W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sean was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 38.2 West. Sean is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwest or west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...SEAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 12 the center of Sean was located near 13.8, -38.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

A number of water suppliers in Pennsylvania have asked customers to mandatorily conserve water. In addition to the York Water Company requiring mandatory non-essential water use restrictions, Audubon Water Company, in Montgomery County; Littlestown Municipal Water Authority, in Adams County; and Lock Haven City Authority, in Clinton County all have similar water restrictions. Eighteen public water suppliers were also seeking voluntary water conservation. York Dispatch (Pa.), Oct 12, 2023

The heat and drought in Louisiana this summer left grass in short supply for an Erath farm, leaving less for cattle. The pasture is in a marshy area, so the saltwater has been moving into the pasture, which has affected the calves. The aim is to have at least half of the calves weighing more than 500 pounds, but the lack of grass and saltwater intrusion have thwarted that plan. Just two of the calves have hit the weight goal. KLFY News 10 (Lafayette, La.), Oct 6, 2023

Northern Michigan has many wineries and is a 'wine tourism' destination. This year, drought over the summer stressed the grape vines, which can lead to excellent fruit quality and fabulous wine. UpNorthLive (Traverse City, Mich.), Oct 6, 2023

U.S. farmers were about halfway done planting winter wheat that will be harvested in 2024, but acreage was expected to remain the same or decrease from last year due to lower prices and farmers' dissatisfaction with the crop after three dry years. Reuters (Chicago), Oct 12, 2023

A Skagit County hay grower without irrigation found that his production was down 30%. He had to sell some cattle early. A nonprofit farm animal rescue organization that usually buys hay from the grower was struggling to find enough hay. A potato grower had to irrigate his potato field to help them emerge for the first time. Water was purchased from the Skagit Public Utility District. One farmer was not able to irrigate his crops for three weeks after the level of the Skagit River dropped too low. Early snowmelt, a lack of spring rain and low stream flows led the state Department of Ecology to declare a drought emergency in 12 counties in July, including parts of Skagit County. GoSkagit (Mount Vernon, Wash.), Oct 7, 2023

Mississippi cattlemen were spending more money to get their cattle ready to market. The ongoing drought has slashed hay production and left the cattle eating hay that was intended to be fed during the winter. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 11, 2023

Crop yields have been higher than expected, but stalk stability has been an issue with strong winds knocking the corn stalks down. Farmers may have to compensate by harvesting more slowly, adjusting equipment and harvesting from a different direction to accommodate leaning stalks. Iowa Capital Dispatch (Des Moines), Oct 10, 2023