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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes are possible along the central and southern California coast and over portions of the Southwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A dry continental air mass is expected to persist across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, dominating the sensible weather over the region. Some modest air mass modification is anticipated across the southern Plains as a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs move through the southwestern flow extending from the Southwest into the Plains. Some precipitation is possible in vicinity of these waves over the southern Plains, but thermodynamic conditions are not expected to support lightning production. Deeper convection is possible Wednesday afternoon farther west across portions of AZ and NM, and mid-level temperatures may be cool enough for modest buoyancy. Consequently, some isolated lightning flashes are possible as a shortwave trough moves through. Even farther west, an upper low is forecast to begin the period centered about 285 miles west-southwest of SFO, before then progressing southward/south-southwestward throughout the period. Expectation is for this low to end the period off the southern CA coast, about 250 miles west-southwest of VBG. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will help keep profiles moist over much of the central and southern CA coast. Mid-level temperatures across this region are expected to cool throughout the day as the upper low move southward. Modest buoyancy associated with these cooling profiles could support isolated lightning flashes within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. ..Mosier.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes are possible along the central and southern California coast and over portions of the Southwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A dry continental air mass is expected to persist across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, dominating the sensible weather over the region. Some modest air mass modification is anticipated across the southern Plains as a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs move through the southwestern flow extending from the Southwest into the Plains. Some precipitation is possible in vicinity of these waves over the southern Plains, but thermodynamic conditions are not expected to support lightning production. Deeper convection is possible Wednesday afternoon farther west across portions of AZ and NM, and mid-level temperatures may be cool enough for modest buoyancy. Consequently, some isolated lightning flashes are possible as a shortwave trough moves through. Even farther west, an upper low is forecast to begin the period centered about 285 miles west-southwest of SFO, before then progressing southward/south-southwestward throughout the period. Expectation is for this low to end the period off the southern CA coast, about 250 miles west-southwest of VBG. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will help keep profiles moist over much of the central and southern CA coast. Mid-level temperatures across this region are expected to cool throughout the day as the upper low move southward. Modest buoyancy associated with these cooling profiles could support isolated lightning flashes within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. ..Mosier.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes are possible along the central and southern California coast and over portions of the Southwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A dry continental air mass is expected to persist across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, dominating the sensible weather over the region. Some modest air mass modification is anticipated across the southern Plains as a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs move through the southwestern flow extending from the Southwest into the Plains. Some precipitation is possible in vicinity of these waves over the southern Plains, but thermodynamic conditions are not expected to support lightning production. Deeper convection is possible Wednesday afternoon farther west across portions of AZ and NM, and mid-level temperatures may be cool enough for modest buoyancy. Consequently, some isolated lightning flashes are possible as a shortwave trough moves through. Even farther west, an upper low is forecast to begin the period centered about 285 miles west-southwest of SFO, before then progressing southward/south-southwestward throughout the period. Expectation is for this low to end the period off the southern CA coast, about 250 miles west-southwest of VBG. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will help keep profiles moist over much of the central and southern CA coast. Mid-level temperatures across this region are expected to cool throughout the day as the upper low move southward. Modest buoyancy associated with these cooling profiles could support isolated lightning flashes within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. ..Mosier.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist from the Plains states eastward to the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough meanders off of the coast of California tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to dominate west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, as on Day 1. Low-level moisture return across the Plains states, driven by surface lee troughing, will also dampen significant wildfire-spread potential as well. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist from the Plains states eastward to the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough meanders off of the coast of California tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to dominate west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, as on Day 1. Low-level moisture return across the Plains states, driven by surface lee troughing, will also dampen significant wildfire-spread potential as well. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist from the Plains states eastward to the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough meanders off of the coast of California tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to dominate west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, as on Day 1. Low-level moisture return across the Plains states, driven by surface lee troughing, will also dampen significant wildfire-spread potential as well. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist from the Plains states eastward to the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough meanders off of the coast of California tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to dominate west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, as on Day 1. Low-level moisture return across the Plains states, driven by surface lee troughing, will also dampen significant wildfire-spread potential as well. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist from the Plains states eastward to the Atlantic coastline as a mid-level trough meanders off of the coast of California tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and cooler air will continue to dominate west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, as on Day 1. Low-level moisture return across the Plains states, driven by surface lee troughing, will also dampen significant wildfire-spread potential as well. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging dominates the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread much of the U.S. west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. Likewise, weaker surface winds or higher RH amid poorly receptive fuels should limit significant wildfire-spread potential across the Plains states. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Stage 2 water restrictions took effect in Nocona on Aug. 28 when Lake Nocona fell below 824 msl for 30 days. Because the lake has fallen below 822 msl for 15 days, Stage 3 began on Dec. 13. Bowie News Online (Texas), Dec 16, 2023

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across northern California. ...California... An area of modest midlevel height falls will spread south along the CA Coast and adjacent offshore areas as an upper low digs to near 36N/127W by the end of the period. While the primary surface front should not advance inland, weak boundary-layer heating should contribute to weak surface-based buoyancy across portions of northern CA within favorable high-level diffluent flow aloft. Forecast soundings exhibit SBCAPE around 200 J/kg by early afternoon which may be adequate for lifted parcels to approach levels necessary for lightning discharge. Later in the period, near-frontal convection will approach the CA Coast, and this activity may also pose some risk for lightning within the more robust updrafts, although it too should remain rather isolated. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across northern California. ...California... An area of modest midlevel height falls will spread south along the CA Coast and adjacent offshore areas as an upper low digs to near 36N/127W by the end of the period. While the primary surface front should not advance inland, weak boundary-layer heating should contribute to weak surface-based buoyancy across portions of northern CA within favorable high-level diffluent flow aloft. Forecast soundings exhibit SBCAPE around 200 J/kg by early afternoon which may be adequate for lifted parcels to approach levels necessary for lightning discharge. Later in the period, near-frontal convection will approach the CA Coast, and this activity may also pose some risk for lightning within the more robust updrafts, although it too should remain rather isolated. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across northern California. ...California... An area of modest midlevel height falls will spread south along the CA Coast and adjacent offshore areas as an upper low digs to near 36N/127W by the end of the period. While the primary surface front should not advance inland, weak boundary-layer heating should contribute to weak surface-based buoyancy across portions of northern CA within favorable high-level diffluent flow aloft. Forecast soundings exhibit SBCAPE around 200 J/kg by early afternoon which may be adequate for lifted parcels to approach levels necessary for lightning discharge. Later in the period, near-frontal convection will approach the CA Coast, and this activity may also pose some risk for lightning within the more robust updrafts, although it too should remain rather isolated. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across northern California. ...California... An area of modest midlevel height falls will spread south along the CA Coast and adjacent offshore areas as an upper low digs to near 36N/127W by the end of the period. While the primary surface front should not advance inland, weak boundary-layer heating should contribute to weak surface-based buoyancy across portions of northern CA within favorable high-level diffluent flow aloft. Forecast soundings exhibit SBCAPE around 200 J/kg by early afternoon which may be adequate for lifted parcels to approach levels necessary for lightning discharge. Later in the period, near-frontal convection will approach the CA Coast, and this activity may also pose some risk for lightning within the more robust updrafts, although it too should remain rather isolated. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across northern California. ...California... An area of modest midlevel height falls will spread south along the CA Coast and adjacent offshore areas as an upper low digs to near 36N/127W by the end of the period. While the primary surface front should not advance inland, weak boundary-layer heating should contribute to weak surface-based buoyancy across portions of northern CA within favorable high-level diffluent flow aloft. Forecast soundings exhibit SBCAPE around 200 J/kg by early afternoon which may be adequate for lifted parcels to approach levels necessary for lightning discharge. Later in the period, near-frontal convection will approach the CA Coast, and this activity may also pose some risk for lightning within the more robust updrafts, although it too should remain rather isolated. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across northern California. ...California... An area of modest midlevel height falls will spread south along the CA Coast and adjacent offshore areas as an upper low digs to near 36N/127W by the end of the period. While the primary surface front should not advance inland, weak boundary-layer heating should contribute to weak surface-based buoyancy across portions of northern CA within favorable high-level diffluent flow aloft. Forecast soundings exhibit SBCAPE around 200 J/kg by early afternoon which may be adequate for lifted parcels to approach levels necessary for lightning discharge. Later in the period, near-frontal convection will approach the CA Coast, and this activity may also pose some risk for lightning within the more robust updrafts, although it too should remain rather isolated. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2023 Read more