Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0912 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Morning observations indicate that the previous forecast is on track. Only transient elevated conditions are expected across the Permian basin, where fuels are at seasonal dryness levels. Farther east across south-central Texas, where 10-hour fuels are drier, guidance indicates conditions will remain well below elevated fire risk thresholds. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie/Moore.. 01/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will slowly progress eastward in the Midwest while a ridge builds into the Four Corners. Strong northwesterly mid-level winds will develop from the central Rockies into the southern Plains today as a result. At the surface, the pressure gradient within the southern Plains will remain rather weak. Some areas of 15-20 mph winds may develop for a couple of hours. The most likely place for this will be from east-central New Mexico into the Permian Basin underneath a belt of stronger 850 mb winds. RH may reach 20% at least briefly as well. Given continued model spread, low ensemble probabilities for sustain elevated conditions, and only modestly dry fuels, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PFN TO 35 E DHN TO 50 SSE MCN. ..GOSS..01/04/23 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC039-045-077-041540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GADSDEN GULF LIBERTY GAC007-087-091-095-131-163-167-175-201-205-253-287-321-041540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER DECATUR DODGE DOUGHERTY GRADY JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAURENS MILLER MITCHELL SEMINOLE TURNER WORTH GMZ633-752-041540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S GWO TO 25 NE TCL TO 20 NW CHA. ..WEINMAN..01/03/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...LIX...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-021-023-025-047-049-063-065-071-073-085-091-095- 099-105-107-117-119-125-129-131-032040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE DALLAS DEKALB GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LOWNDES MARENGO MARSHALL MONROE PERRY PICKENS SHELBY SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX LAC005-033-037-047-063-077-091-103-105-117-121-125-032040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA Read more

WW 7 TORNADO AL LA MS TN 031515Z - 032300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 7 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 915 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Alabama Southeast Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi Middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 915 AM until 500 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms extending from parts of Middle Tennessee southwestward into Mississippi and Louisiana will continue tracking eastward today across the watch area. Other isolated thunderstorms will develop ahead of the line throughout the day. Parameters are favorable for a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes in the more intense storms through the afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles southwest of Mc Comb MS to 50 miles northeast of Huntsville AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 6... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AL... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible across the central Gulf States into the Tennessee Valley, with the greatest threat for strong tornadoes from southeast Mississippi into southern/central Alabama. ...20Z Update... ...Central Gulf Coast states and TN Valley... An organized line of thunderstorms continues to push eastward across central TN and northern AL. Vertical shear across this region remains strong, with recent mesoanalysis estimating 50 to 60 kt of effective bulk shear. More cellular activity exists farther south across central and southern AL. Numerous rotating storms have been noted over the past few hours across central AL, although the persistence of the rotation has been relatively short-lived in most cells. The best overlap of vertical shear and buoyancy is expected to remain over Central AL for the next few hours and additional severe thunderstorms are possible both with the cellular activity ahead of the line and with storm in the convective line itself. As a result, tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will remain possible. Additional storm development is anticipated later tonight, beginning in MS, along a cold front expected to push eastward through the region. Severe thunderstorms are possible with this activity as well, with a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts possible. ...IL/IN... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across southern/eastern IL and west-central IN this afternoon and into this evening. Isolated damaging gusts, hail, and perhaps even a brief tornado, remain possible with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 01/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023/ ...Central Gulf Coast states and TN Valley... A large and organized squall line extends from western MS into middle TN and central KY. This line will persist through the day and progress eastward across east TN and much of MS/AL. Occasional bow/supercell structures have been occurring for many hours along the line, and will continue to be a risk through the day. 12z soundings, recent VAD profiles, and forecast soundings show sufficient CAPE and relatively strong vertical shear profiles - providing a favorable environment for locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes with these storms. Out ahead of the line, numerous thunderstorms have been developing across parts of southeast LA and southern MS. Relatively strong low-level warm/moist advection and little cap are aiding this intensification. Low-level shear is quite strong, but will slowly weaken later today as the primary upper system lifts away. Nevertheless, the potential for several semi-discrete supercells will remain through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of tornadoes (some potentially strong) and locally damaging wind gusts. The strongest cells may also produce severe hail. Later tonight, another round of strong/severe storms may develop across MS as an upper trough approaches the region. It appears likely that the low-level mass fields will sufficiently recover ahead of this activity to pose another risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Storms will spread into AL before 12z. ...IL/IN... An intense 80+ knot mid-level jet max is currently tracking across western MO. As this feature tracks across the primary cold front this afternoon over eastern MO/western IL, most CAM solutions show widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings in this area show cold temperatures aloft and strong deep-layer shear. This suggests a risk of hail, gusty/damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two with the more intense cells. The activity is expected to spread into western IN after dark before weakening. Read more

MD 0024 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 0024 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern MN and western WI Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 031923Z - 032330Z SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow with rates up to 1 in/hr will continue spreading northeastward across parts of southeastern MN into western WI this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a closed mid-level low moving slowly northeastward over eastern NE, with strong DCVA overspreading a low-level baroclinic zone across MN and WI. The resulting isentropic ascent/frontogenetic forcing is leading to a band of heavy snow across parts of southeastern MN. Deep, saturated thermodynamic profiles with strong ascent in the dendritic growth zone should continue favoring heavy snowfall rates across southeastern MN into western WI this afternoon. Snowfall rates up to 1 in/hr are expected with this snow band. Further south over southern MN, warmer temperatures at 850 mb are yielding mixed winter precipitation given sufficiently cold surface temperatures. ..Supinie/Weinman.. 01/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44369208 44509353 44699496 44979543 45409548 45849374 46109226 46079129 45579060 44959029 44569098 44369208 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonable signal for sub-20% RH across portions of central and western TX, but confidence in the duration and coverage of 15-20 mph winds overlapping with low humidity remains limited due to notable spread in deterministic guidance and modest ensemble probabilities. This suggests that patchy areas of transient elevated conditions remains the most likely scenario. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level low in the upper Midwest will make slow progress eastward on Wednesday. In the Great Basin and Southwest, upper-level ridging will amplify and move eastward. This will promote continued moderate to strong mid-level winds across the southern High Plains. At the surface, the pressure gradient in the southern Plains will remain rather weak. With temperatures expected to be warmer in the High Plains, RH of around 20% appears more probable than on Tuesday. Winds will again be relatively light for most areas, though a belt of 15-20 mph may develop in parts of the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin underneath stronger 850 mb flow. Dry grasses would support some fire weather concerns, but confidence in sufficient duration of stronger surface winds and concurrent RH below 20% remains low. Only locally elevated conditions are expected at present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0008 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 8 TORNADO AL GA 031855Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 8 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Alabama Northern and Central Georgia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over central Alabama will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon and early evening. Sufficient instability and winds aloft will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Anniston AL to 50 miles east northeast of Atlanta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0023 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN ALABAMA INTO PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Areas affected...eastern Alabama into parts of west-central and northwestern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 031829Z - 032000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Tornado risk ongoing at this time across central Alabama is forecast to continue expanding eastward/northeastward. New Tornado Watch issuance will likely be required in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of small, rotating updrafts shifting northeastward into/across central Alabama, within eastern portions of Tornado Watch 7. The storms are occurring in an amply unstable environment where low-level dewpoints are generally in the upper 60s. While cloud cover continues to inhibit more robust surface heating, CAPE values will continue to weakly increase from southwest to northeast this afternoon. Meanwhile kinematically, a favorably sheared environment persists, with gradual veering/increasing of the flow with height yielding both low-level and deep-layer shear supportive of updraft rotation (as evidenced by the aforementioned cluster of supercells in central AL). As this environment translates eastward with time, expect associated tornado potential to likewise spread east of the current bounds of WW 007, which will require new WW issuance across eastern Alabama and into portions of western Georgia. ..Goss/Hart.. 01/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB... LAT...LON 34408601 35048491 34558388 32688416 31688631 31528728 34408601 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST AL INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas and southeast Virginia. Strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered over the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning, with related upper troughing extended across much of the central/southern CONUS west of the Rockies. Several shortwave troughs are expected to move within the this troughing, with the lead wave progressing quickly from AR northeastward through the Mid-South and OH Valley throughout the day. Another shortwave will follow in its wake, moving across OK/north TX and the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. A cold front is forecast to extend from a low near the IN/OH/MI border intersection southwestward off the central Gulf Coast early Wednesday. Progression of the lead shortwave will help push this cold front eastward through the Upper OH Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast. Moist conditions will exist ahead of this front across the Southeast, contributing to the potential for severe thunderstorms. Farther west, a deep upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest coast, with strong mid-level flow throughout its base spreading across much of the West Coast. Strong ascent coupled with cold mid-level temperatures and ample moisture could result in a few thunderstorms, particularly across northern CA after 00Z Thursday. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast today (Tuesday) so there is some uncertainty regarding air mass recovery ahead of the approaching front on Wednesday. However, consensus among the guidance is that at least modest buoyancy, fostered largely by ample low-level moisture, will be in place ahead of the front Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front Wednesday morning. These storms are expected to continue as the front moves eastward, with the highest coverage expected across southeast AL and southern GA from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Thermodynamic conditions will remain relatively uniform ahead of front across the Southeast, with moist low-levels and generally modest buoyancy in place. In contrast, a belt of stronger low/mid-level flow will likely move from AL/GA early in the period northeastward into the Carolinas. As a result, the best overlap of buoyancy and shear is expected Wednesday morning across southeast AL and western/central GA. Potential exists for occasional severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado or two. Strong low-level will continue across the Carolinas through the evening, but thermodynamic conditions will be less favorable than areas farther south. As a result, severe thunderstorms potential is lower, but a few severe storms are still possible. ..Mosier.. 01/03/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible across the central Gulf States into the Tennessee Valley, with the greatest threat for strong tornadoes from southeast Louisiana into southern/central Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast states and TN Valley... A large and organized squall line extends from western MS into middle TN and central KY. This line will persist through the day and progress eastward across east TN and much of MS/AL. Occasional bow/supercell structures have been occurring for many hours along the line, and will continue to be a risk through the day. 12z soundings, recent VAD profiles, and forecast soundings show sufficient CAPE and relatively strong vertical shear profiles - providing a favorable environment for locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes with these storms. Out ahead of the line, numerous thunderstorms have been developing across parts of southeast LA and southern MS. Relatively strong low-level warm/moist advection and little cap are aiding this intensification. Low-level shear is quite strong, but will slowly weaken later today as the primary upper system lifts away. Nevertheless, the potential for several semi-discrete supercells will remain through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of tornadoes (some potentially strong) and locally damaging wind gusts. The strongest cells may also produce severe hail. Later tonight, another round of strong/severe storms may develop across MS as an upper trough approaches the region. It appears likely that the low-level mass fields will sufficiently recover ahead of this activity to pose another risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Storms will spread into AL before 12z. ...IL/IN... An intense 80+ knot mid-level jet max is currently tracking across western MO. As this feature tracks across the primary cold front this afternoon over eastern MO/western IL, most CAM solutions show widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings in this area show cold temperatures aloft and strong deep-layer shear. This suggests a risk of hail, gusty/damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two with the more intense cells. The activity is expected to spread into western IN after dark before weakening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/03/2023 Read more

WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE MLU TO 35 SSE MKL TO 40 WSW BNA TO 40 ENE BNA. ..GOSS..01/03/23 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC171-031640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONROE LAC065-031640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE MADISON MSC003-013-015-017-043-051-053-055-057-081-083-095-097-115-117- 125-139-141-145-149-155-161-163-031640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA ITAWAMBA Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0923 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The thinking in the previous discussion is on track. The driest conditions, with RH near 20-25%, will be across central Texas. Meanwhile, the windiest conditions, winds 20-25 kts, will be across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The overlap between strong winds and low RH is not enough to warrant any Elevated or Critical areas. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie/Moore.. 01/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain across the southern Plains in the wake of a northeastward-lifting upper-level trough. Towards the later afternoon, another mid-level jet will move through the Trans-Pecos into central Texas. At the surface, a trough/weak cold front will be situated within the southern Texas Panhandle eastward into the Red River Valley. With the main surface cyclone lifting into the upper Midwest with its parent trough, the surface pressure gradient will weaken through the day. Areas of breezy conditions are possible near the surface trough in the Texas South Plains and with the mid-level jet in the Trans-Pecos/Permian Basin. Surface winds in these areas could reach 20-25 mph. However, temperatures will be relatively cool and RH values are not expected to reach much below 25%. Locally elevated fire weather is expected where dry fine fuels exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0004 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0004 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023 Areas affected...Parts of Nebraska and far northwest Iowa Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 021928Z - 030000Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain with rates up to 0.06 inch/3 hours is possible this afternoon/early evening across parts of NE into far northwest IA -- especially northeast NE in the 21-00Z time frame. DISCUSSION...The nose of a strong south-southwesterly midlevel speed max will gradually overspread western OK and southwest KS this afternoon, with related strong DCVA emerging over parts of NE in the 21-00Z time frame. This midlevel ascent, coupled with strengthening low/midlevel isentropic ascent, will support an increase in precipitation focused along a southwest-northeast-oriented low/midlevel baroclinic zone across parts of south-central NE northeastward into far northwest IA. Current surface temperatures through this corridor are in the 32-34 F range, and light precipitation and related wet-bulb cooling this afternoon will support surface temperatures in the 30-32 F range before precipitation rates increase over the area. These sufficiently cold surface temperatures beneath a substantial warm nose at 850-mb should favor freezing rain with rates up to 0.06 inch per 3 hours given the strengthening/focused ascent. Confidence in these rates is greatest in northeast NE and perhaps into far northwest IA between 21-00Z. North of the expected freezing-rain corridor, colder thermodynamic profiles should favor mixed winter precipitation including areas of heavy snow. Of note, upslope flow and favorable freezing-rain thermodynamic profiles over southeast WY into the NE Panhandle are yielding freezing drizzle, and these conditions could persist into the evening hours as well. ..Weinman.. 01/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40160026 40060132 40460157 40900088 41350009 42169894 42639814 42809719 42769614 42289597 41499708 41129784 40479941 40160026 Read more

WW 0001 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0001 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 1 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 021920Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage through the afternoon over the watch area, with a few storms likely intensifying to severe levels. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the main threats. The risk is expected to persist well into the night across much of this area. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Longview TX to 35 miles northwest of Batesville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance maintains high probability for 15+ mph winds across southwest and west TX, but low potential for sub-20% RH. Brief/localized elevated conditions are possible, but coverage/duration remains too limited for highlights. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Moore.. 01/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing across the central/eastern U.S. will become broader on Tuesday. A band of stronger mid-level winds will remain across the Southwest and southern Plains. Gusty winds are possible from the Texas South Plains into the Trans-Pecos and perhaps as far east as central Texas. Grasses will likely be drier in areas that do not receive any precipitation on Monday. Temperatures, though, will also be cooler and the surface pressure gradient will be weakening through the day. Only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0003 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
Mesoscale Discussion 0003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2023 Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma across the Arklatex Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021734Z - 022000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing convection -- and a corresponding/gradual increase in severe/tornado risk -- across the broader Arklatex vicinity will likely require Tornado Watch issuance this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a steady increase in convective coverage across parts of East Texas, and northeastward into southern Arkansas. This convection is ongoing within a zone of low-level warm advection well ahead of the main upper system (now over Colorado). Weak height falls over the next several hours should continue contributing to an environment that supports an increase in QG-ascent-driven storms. A seasonably warm/moist boundary layer is observed across the area, with low 70s dewpoints across much of East Texas and into western Louisiana/southern Arkansas. While substantial cloud cover is limiting diurnal heating, gradual/modest additional destabilization will likely fuel the anticipated convective increase. This trend is also highlighted within some CAM runs, particularly including latest runs of the HRRR, which show substantial increases in both coverage and intensity of storms over the next few hours. While somewhat meridional/southerly, the deep-layer wind field across the area exhibits increasing flow with height through the lowest half of the troposphere. This is resulting in ample shear for organized/rotating storms. Gradual strengthening of the flow with time, as the upper system advances, will lend additional support to an anticipated/gradual increase in risk. We will continue to monitor convective evolution, with expectations that a tornado watch will eventually be needed across a good portion of the discussion area this afternoon. ..Goss/Hart.. 01/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 31249546 31619586 33599552 34629462 35049353 35039257 34459178 33309218 31719302 31039355 30929412 31249546 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur Tuesday across parts of the central Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and large hail will all be possible. The greatest severe-thunderstorm risk is expected from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and southern/central Alabama, where strong gusts and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible. ...Central Gulf Coast States into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys... A closed upper low over the central Plains and associated mid-level shortwave trough will shift eastward towards the mid/upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. This system will be contained within a larger-scale upper trough slowly developing eastward across the southern Rockies/southern Plains. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist from TX into the OH Valley. A broken line of convection will be ongoing along or ahead of a cold front from the lower OH Valley into northern MS and continuing southwest into southeast TX. Stronger and more progressive larger-scale ascent will be focused over northern portions of the area during the morning. Upper 50s to low 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints will contribute to weak instability amid strong shear. As a result, some of this activity may be strong to severe (mainly wind) from portions of KY/TN into the northern MS vicinity. Further south into northern LA and southeast TX, more cellular convection is possible during the first few hours of the period. Ahead of the large-scale upper trough, a lead shortwave impulse, within a sub-tropical upper-level jet streak oriented from the western Gulf of Mexico into the central Gulf Coast states, should serve as a focus for severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday morning or early afternoon across southeastern LA into parts of southern MS/AL. Height falls across the area will remain modest through the day. However, strong vertical shear will overlap mid/upper 60s F to perhaps lower 70s surface dewpoints. Various forecast soundings from the NAM/RAP show wind profiles favorable for supercells amid 1000-1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Most CAMs indicate multiple supercells will develop ahead of the decaying line of convection associated with the eastward-percolating cold front, and in the vicinity of a marine warm front. These discrete supercells may produce a few tornadoes, with some possibly strong given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Additional convection is expected along the surface cold front, which will creep east/southeast through the period, becoming oriented from central KY/middle TN to far southeastern LA by early Wednesday morning. Severe potential with this overnight activity remains somewhat uncertain, and depends on how convection evolves during the day. Still, it appears possible that some areas across the central Gulf Coast states may see more than one round of severe thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2023 Read more