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Cotton, soybeans, some of those commodities are really hurting, due to drought, according to the commissioner of the Alabama Department of Agriculture and Industries. WSFA (Montgomery, Ala.), Oct 4, 2023

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 955 WTPZ41 KNHC 092037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Max is estimated to have made landfall around 1800 UTC just to the west of Puerto Vicente Guerrero in the Mexican Provence of Guerrero. Data received from the a Mexican surface observing site at that location just after the intermediate advisory suggested the tropical storm might have been a little stronger than initially assessed, reporting sustained tropical-storm-force winds with a minimum pressure of 994 mb. Thus, the 18 UTC working best track intensity was adjusted to 55 kt with a 991 mb pressure. Since that time, the satellite structure has begun to degrade, likely as the surface circulation begins to be disrupted by the high rugged terrain of south-central Mexico. Thus, some weakening is assumed since that time with the current intensity assessed at 50 kt. Further rapid weakening is anticipated as the small tropical cyclone moves further inland, and by this time tomorrow Max is likely to be little more than a remnant mid-level circulation moving poleward with enhanced moisture over central Mexico. The initial motion still appears to be north-northeast at 030/5 kt. This motion should continue until Max dissipates over the higher terrain of Mexico. The track guidance following the low-level center quickly lose the system beyond 12 h, and the updated track forecast is little changed from the prior one. Even as Max dissipates, its mid-level remains and larger moisture plume will likely result in significant upslope rainfall, leading to flash flooding and mudslides pushing into inland Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Max is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions through this evening to portions of the southern coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. 2. Heavy rains from Max will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.6N 101.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.2N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092037 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Satellite images indicate that Lidia is becoming better organized. Deep convection is consolidating near the center and it appears that an inner core is forming. In addition, a large curved band has developed on the south and east sides of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Lidia earlier this afternoon and found that the minimum pressure was quite low, around 985 mb. A combination of the aircraft flight-level wind and SFMR data support increasing the wind speed to 60 kt, and is possible that this is conservative. The aircraft data and recent satellite images suggest that the center has reformed to the south of the previous positions. Since the center of Lidia appears to have reformed, the initial motion of 065/7 kt is uncertain. Water vapor images show a mid- to upper-level trough approaching Lidia, and that feature should steer the storm relatively quickly to the east-northeast toward west-central Mexico. The main change for this forecast cycle is associated with Lidia's reformation, which is roughly 1 degree south of the previous estimates. Based on the initial position adjustment, the new track forecast lies to the south of the previous prediction. This forecast is close to the consensus aids and roughly halfway between the fast GFS solution and the much slower ECMWF run. Based on the new forecast, Lidia is expected to reach the coast of Mexico Tuesday afternoon/evening. Since Lidia appears to be developing an inner core while moving into conducive environmental conditions, significant strengthening is forecast. The storm is expected to move over SSTs near 30 C and into a favorable upper-level wind pattern. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the hurricane regional models. Rapid weakening is forecast once Lidia moves inland due to the rugged terrain in west-central Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen before it reaches west-central Mexico, and hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning Tuesday. 2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of where the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico. 4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 18.1N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 20.0N 107.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 21.8N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 092037 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 092036 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 38(40) 32(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 1 12(13) 59(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) SAN BLAS 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X 9( 9) 58(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) P VALLARTA 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 24 7(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 092036 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 101.0W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 50SE 50SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 101.0W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 101.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.2N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 101.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 092036 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.9W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.9W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.0N 107.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.8N 104.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 110.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states during the Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday period, supporting the deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. From Wednesday-Friday, the mid-level trough and surface cyclone will shift eastward toward the MS Valley, with strong, dry westerly surface winds expected in the post-cold front/dryline environment. While fuels are marginally receptive to fire spread overall, fuels appear more locally receptive across portions of central New Mexico, into far western Texas, eastern Colorado, and western Kansas. 40 percent critical probabilities have been added Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday for areas that should experience the best overlap of dry/windy surface conditions and relatively more receptive fuels. By late this week through the weekend, surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will overspread much of the central and southern CONUS, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 10/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the ongoing forecast. See previous outlook appended below for more forecast details. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning surface observations continue to depict cool and dry conditions across a majority of the country. The broad northwest flow regime over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS will limit thunderstorm potential and maintain quiescent conditions with the exception of a few regions. Lingering low/mid-level moisture over the Southwest and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster another day of orographically-driven thunderstorms. Weak moisture return into the southern High Plains may support isolated thunderstorms across parts of CO, NM, and the OK/TX Panhandles late this afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing may support a few strong downbursts, but confidence in the potential for severe wind is too limited for probabilities. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible this evening/later tonight across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies as ascent associated with an approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Across the southern FL Panhandle, a few thunderstorms are possible along/south of a stalled frontal boundary. 30-40 knot mid-level flow may support transient storm organization with sufficiently deep/mature convection, but as with previous days, forcing for ascent will likely be too weak/nebulous to support a substantial severe threat over land. Read more

Dry conditions contributed to a 40-acre wildfire in Gulf Breeze, according to the Florida Forestry Service. Fires have been occurring almost daily, but no burn bans were in effect. WEAR-TV ABC 3 Pensacola (Fla.), Oct 9, 2023

A cold case of a man missing for 14 years has been reopened in Cass County by the sheriff's office. Drought has made the area that the man disappeared in more easily searchable with low water levels in the ditches and lowlands that were previously filled with water. FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul (Minn.), Oct 9, 2023

Rainfall in the DMV has been lacking for producing giant pumpkins. Even irrigation was not enough to grow big pumpkins, according to a farmer in Loudoun County, Virginia. Rainfall was about 50% of normal, and pumpkins turned out about half of the expected size. WJLA (Arlington, Va.), Oct 9, 2023

Apples were ripening and dropping earlier than usual as drought stressed the trees. Some apples were smaller than normal. One grower, taking drought conditions into consideration, opted to knock more apples off the trees to give the remaining apples a better chance of growing to full size. WJLA (Arlington, Va.), Oct 9, 2023

The Alabama Department of Agriculture and Industries consulted with the Alabama Department of Transportation to waive the hay hauling permit fee, due to drought. Haulers still have to apply for a permit and comply with the requirements. The Dothan Eagle (Dothan, Ala.), Oct 6, 2023

Apples from an orchard in Winona County were smaller than usual and were less red. Winona Post (Minn.), Oct 6, 2023

Extreme heat and drought resulted in Baton Rouge’s University Lakes partially drying up. The lakes were being renovated starting late this summer, but the low level of the lakes was not due to dredging or construction. The lakes are quite shallow, roughly five feet deep. LSU Reveille (Baton Rouge, La.), Oct 6, 2023

The Missouri governor’s cattle farm in Bolivar has been feeding hay since July. Many ranchers have already sold cattle rather than buy expensive hay after the pasture dried up. Some cattle herds have been completely liquidated. St. Louis Post Dispatch (Mo.), Oct 6, 2023

The rain in Floyd County stopped mid-July and was not enough to keep the pumpkins growing, despite irrigation. Peak growing season for pumpkins is mid-July and August, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension agriculture agent in Floyd County. Pumpkin growers have seen a sharp decline of 20% to 40% in production. Rain at harvest time was not helpful. The High Plains region of Texas is a significant pumpkin-producing region. Lubbock Avalanche-Journal (Texas), Oct 8, 2023

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2023 23:58:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2023 21:29:31 GMT

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 082358 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023 ...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 101.9W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 101.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a gradual turn northward and then north-northeastward is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico within the warning area by late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. Rapid weakening is expected after the system moves inland on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Sixteen-E is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the coastal sections of western Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Monday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Brown