Aggregator

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Southeast on Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters and north FL through the period. Most guidance continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land currently appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible, mainly Wednesday morning, across parts of coastal CA as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Southeast on Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters and north FL through the period. Most guidance continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land currently appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible, mainly Wednesday morning, across parts of coastal CA as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southern Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-65 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints) over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough elevated moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the southern Plains. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southern LA. Severe thunderstorms are not expected for this region given generally 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE forecast, even though deep-layer shear should be strong. Farther west, occasional lighting flashes may be noted with low-topped convection moving onshore along/near the northern CA Coast in association with an eastward-moving upper trough, mainly from late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southern Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-65 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints) over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough elevated moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the southern Plains. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southern LA. Severe thunderstorms are not expected for this region given generally 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE forecast, even though deep-layer shear should be strong. Farther west, occasional lighting flashes may be noted with low-topped convection moving onshore along/near the northern CA Coast in association with an eastward-moving upper trough, mainly from late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southern Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-65 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints) over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough elevated moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the southern Plains. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southern LA. Severe thunderstorms are not expected for this region given generally 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE forecast, even though deep-layer shear should be strong. Farther west, occasional lighting flashes may be noted with low-topped convection moving onshore along/near the northern CA Coast in association with an eastward-moving upper trough, mainly from late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southern Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-65 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints) over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough elevated moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the southern Plains. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southern LA. Severe thunderstorms are not expected for this region given generally 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE forecast, even though deep-layer shear should be strong. Farther west, occasional lighting flashes may be noted with low-topped convection moving onshore along/near the northern CA Coast in association with an eastward-moving upper trough, mainly from late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southern Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-65 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints) over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough elevated moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the southern Plains. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southern LA. Severe thunderstorms are not expected for this region given generally 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE forecast, even though deep-layer shear should be strong. Farther west, occasional lighting flashes may be noted with low-topped convection moving onshore along/near the northern CA Coast in association with an eastward-moving upper trough, mainly from late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain confined to portions of the Southwest late tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential generally remains low for today and tonight across much of the country with the exception of the southern AZ/NM border. A compact shortwave trough off the southern CA coast will move inland through the day, reaching AZ/NM by early Tuesday morning. Cool temperatures aloft and broad-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low will promote mid-level destabilization heading into the overnight hours. Despite a substantial dry layer in place across the region, advected PWAT imagery shows higher-quality moisture in the 850-700 mb layer that was not sampled by 00 UTC soundings and should move inland with the low. Consequently, sufficiently lift, moisture, and destabilization should be in place for at least isolated lightning flashes. To the east, a positively-tilted upper trough over the Midwest will gradually shift east over the next 24 hours as shortwave ridging builds across the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build across the Plains and mid-MS River Valley as a cold front pushes south into the Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes are possible along the TX Gulf Coast this morning as the front moves offshore, but an early frontal passage offset from peak diurnal warming, coupled with marginal lapse-rates and dry air aloft, casts doubt on the lightning potential over land. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain confined to portions of the Southwest late tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential generally remains low for today and tonight across much of the country with the exception of the southern AZ/NM border. A compact shortwave trough off the southern CA coast will move inland through the day, reaching AZ/NM by early Tuesday morning. Cool temperatures aloft and broad-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low will promote mid-level destabilization heading into the overnight hours. Despite a substantial dry layer in place across the region, advected PWAT imagery shows higher-quality moisture in the 850-700 mb layer that was not sampled by 00 UTC soundings and should move inland with the low. Consequently, sufficiently lift, moisture, and destabilization should be in place for at least isolated lightning flashes. To the east, a positively-tilted upper trough over the Midwest will gradually shift east over the next 24 hours as shortwave ridging builds across the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build across the Plains and mid-MS River Valley as a cold front pushes south into the Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes are possible along the TX Gulf Coast this morning as the front moves offshore, but an early frontal passage offset from peak diurnal warming, coupled with marginal lapse-rates and dry air aloft, casts doubt on the lightning potential over land. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 Read more