Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential remains limited for Monday across the country, though concerns may emerge across parts of eastern WY as well as northwest KS into NE. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts upper ridging over the western CONUS, which is forecast to shift east to the Plains by Monday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will support lee troughing along the central to northern High Plains. Westerly downslope winds across eastern WY should support additional drying of an antecedent dry air mass with RH values in the low teens to single digits possible. To the east of the surface trough, 15-25 mph southerly gradient winds appear probable across northwest KS to central NE. Minimal moisture return coupled with mostly clear skies should promote diurnal RH reductions to near 20%. While elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible for both regions, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near or below the 80th percentile, casting some uncertainty onto fuel status. Fuels appear to be driest across northwest KS where 30-day rainfall deficits are most pronounced, but this may be offset from the stronger winds/lower RH to the north. Trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential remains limited for Monday across the country, though concerns may emerge across parts of eastern WY as well as northwest KS into NE. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts upper ridging over the western CONUS, which is forecast to shift east to the Plains by Monday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the central/northern Rockies will support lee troughing along the central to northern High Plains. Westerly downslope winds across eastern WY should support additional drying of an antecedent dry air mass with RH values in the low teens to single digits possible. To the east of the surface trough, 15-25 mph southerly gradient winds appear probable across northwest KS to central NE. Minimal moisture return coupled with mostly clear skies should promote diurnal RH reductions to near 20%. While elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible for both regions, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are generally near or below the 80th percentile, casting some uncertainty onto fuel status. Fuels appear to be driest across northwest KS where 30-day rainfall deficits are most pronounced, but this may be offset from the stronger winds/lower RH to the north. Trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will generally remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show an extensive dry air mass in place from the southern Great Basin/southern CA to the central Plains. This air mass is forecast to spread north into Great Basin as southerly winds strengthen in response to an approaching surface low off the Pacific Northwest coast. While RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, gradient winds will generally remain near/below 15 mph with occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central NV to far southern ID, but the patchy/transient nature of such conditions, combined with only modestly dry fuels per recent analyses, negate the need for highlights. ...Southern CA... An offshore flow regime remains in place along the southern CA coast early Sunday morning with a few locations reporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Such conditions should lingering into the late morning hours before offshore winds begin to abate later today, and are expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 11/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of far southwestern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across northern Mexico on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly across the western Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico. During the day, increasing low-level flow and convergence across the western Gulf will support scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms will gradually spread northeastward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday night. Any significant instability will likely remain well offshore, making conditions unfavorable for severe storms over land. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of far southwestern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across northern Mexico on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly across the western Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico. During the day, increasing low-level flow and convergence across the western Gulf will support scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms will gradually spread northeastward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday night. Any significant instability will likely remain well offshore, making conditions unfavorable for severe storms over land. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of far southwestern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across northern Mexico on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly across the western Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico. During the day, increasing low-level flow and convergence across the western Gulf will support scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms will gradually spread northeastward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday night. Any significant instability will likely remain well offshore, making conditions unfavorable for severe storms over land. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of far southwestern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across northern Mexico on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly across the western Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico. During the day, increasing low-level flow and convergence across the western Gulf will support scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms will gradually spread northeastward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday night. Any significant instability will likely remain well offshore, making conditions unfavorable for severe storms over land. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into parts of far southwestern Louisiana. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across northern Mexico on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly across the western Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico. During the day, increasing low-level flow and convergence across the western Gulf will support scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms will gradually spread northeastward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday night. Any significant instability will likely remain well offshore, making conditions unfavorable for severe storms over land. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Lower/Middle TX Coast... Upper trough, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, will eject slowly east across northern Mexico Sunday. High-level diffluent flow will be more pronounced downstream across south TX as this feature translates toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. In response, a weak surface wave will evolve over the western Gulf Basin, just off the south TX Coast. Strengthening 850mb flow atop this coastal front will encourage elevated convection, despite the marginal lapse rates, as thermodynamic profiles will be quite moist, leading to weak buoyancy. NAM forecast soundings for coastal South TX suggest upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may evolve if lifting a parcel near 1km. This should be more than adequate for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Lower/Middle TX Coast... Upper trough, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, will eject slowly east across northern Mexico Sunday. High-level diffluent flow will be more pronounced downstream across south TX as this feature translates toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. In response, a weak surface wave will evolve over the western Gulf Basin, just off the south TX Coast. Strengthening 850mb flow atop this coastal front will encourage elevated convection, despite the marginal lapse rates, as thermodynamic profiles will be quite moist, leading to weak buoyancy. NAM forecast soundings for coastal South TX suggest upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may evolve if lifting a parcel near 1km. This should be more than adequate for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Lower/Middle TX Coast... Upper trough, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, will eject slowly east across northern Mexico Sunday. High-level diffluent flow will be more pronounced downstream across south TX as this feature translates toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. In response, a weak surface wave will evolve over the western Gulf Basin, just off the south TX Coast. Strengthening 850mb flow atop this coastal front will encourage elevated convection, despite the marginal lapse rates, as thermodynamic profiles will be quite moist, leading to weak buoyancy. NAM forecast soundings for coastal South TX suggest upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may evolve if lifting a parcel near 1km. This should be more than adequate for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Lower/Middle TX Coast... Upper trough, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, will eject slowly east across northern Mexico Sunday. High-level diffluent flow will be more pronounced downstream across south TX as this feature translates toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. In response, a weak surface wave will evolve over the western Gulf Basin, just off the south TX Coast. Strengthening 850mb flow atop this coastal front will encourage elevated convection, despite the marginal lapse rates, as thermodynamic profiles will be quite moist, leading to weak buoyancy. NAM forecast soundings for coastal South TX suggest upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may evolve if lifting a parcel near 1km. This should be more than adequate for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Lower/Middle TX Coast... Upper trough, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, will eject slowly east across northern Mexico Sunday. High-level diffluent flow will be more pronounced downstream across south TX as this feature translates toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. In response, a weak surface wave will evolve over the western Gulf Basin, just off the south TX Coast. Strengthening 850mb flow atop this coastal front will encourage elevated convection, despite the marginal lapse rates, as thermodynamic profiles will be quite moist, leading to weak buoyancy. NAM forecast soundings for coastal South TX suggest upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may evolve if lifting a parcel near 1km. This should be more than adequate for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Lower/Middle TX Coast... Upper trough, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, will eject slowly east across northern Mexico Sunday. High-level diffluent flow will be more pronounced downstream across south TX as this feature translates toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. In response, a weak surface wave will evolve over the western Gulf Basin, just off the south TX Coast. Strengthening 850mb flow atop this coastal front will encourage elevated convection, despite the marginal lapse rates, as thermodynamic profiles will be quite moist, leading to weak buoyancy. NAM forecast soundings for coastal South TX suggest upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may evolve if lifting a parcel near 1km. This should be more than adequate for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from a few flashes of lightning for the next several hours, the threat of lightning is negligible across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Weak midlevel height rises will be noted across the northwestern US tonight in the wake of a short wave trough advancing toward the northern Rockies. While 00z sounding from UIL exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, very little lightning has been noted with showers across this region. In the absence of meaningful large-scale ascent, thunderstorms are not expected across this region the rest of the period. A few flashes of lightning have recently been observed with weak convection over the central FL Peninsula. While 00z soundings from this region are not particularly impressive, most-recent guidance continues to suggest the threat for isolated thunderstorms through mid evening. Otherwise, thunderstorm potential will wane after 03-04z. ..Darrow.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from a few flashes of lightning for the next several hours, the threat of lightning is negligible across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Weak midlevel height rises will be noted across the northwestern US tonight in the wake of a short wave trough advancing toward the northern Rockies. While 00z sounding from UIL exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, very little lightning has been noted with showers across this region. In the absence of meaningful large-scale ascent, thunderstorms are not expected across this region the rest of the period. A few flashes of lightning have recently been observed with weak convection over the central FL Peninsula. While 00z soundings from this region are not particularly impressive, most-recent guidance continues to suggest the threat for isolated thunderstorms through mid evening. Otherwise, thunderstorm potential will wane after 03-04z. ..Darrow.. 11/12/2023 Read more