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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern into central Florida. ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will remain in place across much of the central and southern CONUS as multiple mid-level impulses traverse the ridge over the northern U.S. today. Surface high pressure will continue to overspread most of the CONUS, with large-scale subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential over most locales. The one exception will be portions of the Gulf Coast and the central/southern FL Peninsula. A mid-level trough and accompanying surface cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shunt eastward through the period, promoting enough moisture advection and deep-layer ascent across the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL Peninsula to support at least isolated thunderstorm development today into tonight. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern into central Florida. ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will remain in place across much of the central and southern CONUS as multiple mid-level impulses traverse the ridge over the northern U.S. today. Surface high pressure will continue to overspread most of the CONUS, with large-scale subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential over most locales. The one exception will be portions of the Gulf Coast and the central/southern FL Peninsula. A mid-level trough and accompanying surface cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shunt eastward through the period, promoting enough moisture advection and deep-layer ascent across the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL Peninsula to support at least isolated thunderstorm development today into tonight. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern into central Florida. ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will remain in place across much of the central and southern CONUS as multiple mid-level impulses traverse the ridge over the northern U.S. today. Surface high pressure will continue to overspread most of the CONUS, with large-scale subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential over most locales. The one exception will be portions of the Gulf Coast and the central/southern FL Peninsula. A mid-level trough and accompanying surface cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shunt eastward through the period, promoting enough moisture advection and deep-layer ascent across the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL Peninsula to support at least isolated thunderstorm development today into tonight. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern into central Florida. ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will remain in place across much of the central and southern CONUS as multiple mid-level impulses traverse the ridge over the northern U.S. today. Surface high pressure will continue to overspread most of the CONUS, with large-scale subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential over most locales. The one exception will be portions of the Gulf Coast and the central/southern FL Peninsula. A mid-level trough and accompanying surface cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shunt eastward through the period, promoting enough moisture advection and deep-layer ascent across the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL Peninsula to support at least isolated thunderstorm development today into tonight. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a split-flow pattern will be maintained around a quasistationary cyclone offshore from the Pacific Coast, with downstream ridging across portions of the Great Basin and southern Rockies. Farther east, a southern-stream shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from east TX to the lower TX Coast -- will move eastward to the central Gulf coast and central Gulf of Mexico by the end of the period. A related frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z over Gulf waters roughly south of ARA and east of BRO, with cold front southwestward over northeastern MX. A warm front was drawn to about 75-80 nm south of the Mississippi River mouth, then southeastward over the east-central Gulf, becoming quasistationary across south FL and through a weak wave low near MIA. The Gulf low is forecast to deepen and drift northeastward through the period, as the mid/upper trough approaches. By 12Z, the low should be over or just south of the Mississippi River mouth, but with the warm sector over water, as the warm-frontal segment arches eastward then southeastward over the north-central/eastern Gulf. The front should move little over south FL, perhaps with a slight northward drift. The cold front will move slowly eastward over the western/central Gulf south of the low. Isolated and marginal thunder potential exists over land beneath an elevated warm-advection/moisture-transport conveyor, located north through northeast of the Gulf low. Marginal buoyancy is expected, with elevated MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg and just sporadically reaching ideal icing layers for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also may be embedded in deep low-level easterlies across southern portions of the FL Peninsula, near the warm/stationary frontal zone. Organized severe potential appears minimal due to lack of greater magnitudes of lift, lapse rates and deep shear. The bulk of thunderstorms and any appreciable strong- severe convective potential should remain over open Gulf waters, where stronger shear is forecast, and air-sea fluxes of heat and moisture will optimize boundary-layer theta-e for surface-based effective inflow. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a split-flow pattern will be maintained around a quasistationary cyclone offshore from the Pacific Coast, with downstream ridging across portions of the Great Basin and southern Rockies. Farther east, a southern-stream shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from east TX to the lower TX Coast -- will move eastward to the central Gulf coast and central Gulf of Mexico by the end of the period. A related frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z over Gulf waters roughly south of ARA and east of BRO, with cold front southwestward over northeastern MX. A warm front was drawn to about 75-80 nm south of the Mississippi River mouth, then southeastward over the east-central Gulf, becoming quasistationary across south FL and through a weak wave low near MIA. The Gulf low is forecast to deepen and drift northeastward through the period, as the mid/upper trough approaches. By 12Z, the low should be over or just south of the Mississippi River mouth, but with the warm sector over water, as the warm-frontal segment arches eastward then southeastward over the north-central/eastern Gulf. The front should move little over south FL, perhaps with a slight northward drift. The cold front will move slowly eastward over the western/central Gulf south of the low. Isolated and marginal thunder potential exists over land beneath an elevated warm-advection/moisture-transport conveyor, located north through northeast of the Gulf low. Marginal buoyancy is expected, with elevated MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg and just sporadically reaching ideal icing layers for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also may be embedded in deep low-level easterlies across southern portions of the FL Peninsula, near the warm/stationary frontal zone. Organized severe potential appears minimal due to lack of greater magnitudes of lift, lapse rates and deep shear. The bulk of thunderstorms and any appreciable strong- severe convective potential should remain over open Gulf waters, where stronger shear is forecast, and air-sea fluxes of heat and moisture will optimize boundary-layer theta-e for surface-based effective inflow. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a split-flow pattern will be maintained around a quasistationary cyclone offshore from the Pacific Coast, with downstream ridging across portions of the Great Basin and southern Rockies. Farther east, a southern-stream shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from east TX to the lower TX Coast -- will move eastward to the central Gulf coast and central Gulf of Mexico by the end of the period. A related frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z over Gulf waters roughly south of ARA and east of BRO, with cold front southwestward over northeastern MX. A warm front was drawn to about 75-80 nm south of the Mississippi River mouth, then southeastward over the east-central Gulf, becoming quasistationary across south FL and through a weak wave low near MIA. The Gulf low is forecast to deepen and drift northeastward through the period, as the mid/upper trough approaches. By 12Z, the low should be over or just south of the Mississippi River mouth, but with the warm sector over water, as the warm-frontal segment arches eastward then southeastward over the north-central/eastern Gulf. The front should move little over south FL, perhaps with a slight northward drift. The cold front will move slowly eastward over the western/central Gulf south of the low. Isolated and marginal thunder potential exists over land beneath an elevated warm-advection/moisture-transport conveyor, located north through northeast of the Gulf low. Marginal buoyancy is expected, with elevated MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg and just sporadically reaching ideal icing layers for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also may be embedded in deep low-level easterlies across southern portions of the FL Peninsula, near the warm/stationary frontal zone. Organized severe potential appears minimal due to lack of greater magnitudes of lift, lapse rates and deep shear. The bulk of thunderstorms and any appreciable strong- severe convective potential should remain over open Gulf waters, where stronger shear is forecast, and air-sea fluxes of heat and moisture will optimize boundary-layer theta-e for surface-based effective inflow. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a split-flow pattern will be maintained around a quasistationary cyclone offshore from the Pacific Coast, with downstream ridging across portions of the Great Basin and southern Rockies. Farther east, a southern-stream shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from east TX to the lower TX Coast -- will move eastward to the central Gulf coast and central Gulf of Mexico by the end of the period. A related frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z over Gulf waters roughly south of ARA and east of BRO, with cold front southwestward over northeastern MX. A warm front was drawn to about 75-80 nm south of the Mississippi River mouth, then southeastward over the east-central Gulf, becoming quasistationary across south FL and through a weak wave low near MIA. The Gulf low is forecast to deepen and drift northeastward through the period, as the mid/upper trough approaches. By 12Z, the low should be over or just south of the Mississippi River mouth, but with the warm sector over water, as the warm-frontal segment arches eastward then southeastward over the north-central/eastern Gulf. The front should move little over south FL, perhaps with a slight northward drift. The cold front will move slowly eastward over the western/central Gulf south of the low. Isolated and marginal thunder potential exists over land beneath an elevated warm-advection/moisture-transport conveyor, located north through northeast of the Gulf low. Marginal buoyancy is expected, with elevated MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg and just sporadically reaching ideal icing layers for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also may be embedded in deep low-level easterlies across southern portions of the FL Peninsula, near the warm/stationary frontal zone. Organized severe potential appears minimal due to lack of greater magnitudes of lift, lapse rates and deep shear. The bulk of thunderstorms and any appreciable strong- severe convective potential should remain over open Gulf waters, where stronger shear is forecast, and air-sea fluxes of heat and moisture will optimize boundary-layer theta-e for surface-based effective inflow. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a split-flow pattern will be maintained around a quasistationary cyclone offshore from the Pacific Coast, with downstream ridging across portions of the Great Basin and southern Rockies. Farther east, a southern-stream shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from east TX to the lower TX Coast -- will move eastward to the central Gulf coast and central Gulf of Mexico by the end of the period. A related frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z over Gulf waters roughly south of ARA and east of BRO, with cold front southwestward over northeastern MX. A warm front was drawn to about 75-80 nm south of the Mississippi River mouth, then southeastward over the east-central Gulf, becoming quasistationary across south FL and through a weak wave low near MIA. The Gulf low is forecast to deepen and drift northeastward through the period, as the mid/upper trough approaches. By 12Z, the low should be over or just south of the Mississippi River mouth, but with the warm sector over water, as the warm-frontal segment arches eastward then southeastward over the north-central/eastern Gulf. The front should move little over south FL, perhaps with a slight northward drift. The cold front will move slowly eastward over the western/central Gulf south of the low. Isolated and marginal thunder potential exists over land beneath an elevated warm-advection/moisture-transport conveyor, located north through northeast of the Gulf low. Marginal buoyancy is expected, with elevated MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg and just sporadically reaching ideal icing layers for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also may be embedded in deep low-level easterlies across southern portions of the FL Peninsula, near the warm/stationary frontal zone. Organized severe potential appears minimal due to lack of greater magnitudes of lift, lapse rates and deep shear. The bulk of thunderstorms and any appreciable strong- severe convective potential should remain over open Gulf waters, where stronger shear is forecast, and air-sea fluxes of heat and moisture will optimize boundary-layer theta-e for surface-based effective inflow. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 11/14/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Friday to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Saturday. At the surface, an area of high pressure associated with a relatively dry airmass, is forecast to move from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. This will likely minimize the potential for thunderstorms over much of the continental U.S from Friday into Saturday. On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Moisture advection will likely increase surface dewpoints across parts of southern and central Texas into the 60s F. Although thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of the southern Plains on Sunday, instability is forecast to remain weak. An isolated severe threat could develop during the afternoon and evening, but any threat will likely remain marginal due to a lack of instability. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the southern Plains, as a mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. The exit region of the mid-level jet is expected to move from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Medium-range model forecasts suggest that convection will be likely ahead of the trough from central and east Texas into Louisiana Monday afternoon and evening. Although deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be sufficient for severe storms, instability is forecast to remain weak ahead of the system. While an isolated severe threat will be possible Monday afternoon and evening in parts of Texas and Louisiana, model solutions suggest that the quality of the airmass ahead of the system will remain poor. At this time, there is considerable uncertainty concerning a potential severe threat. On Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to move across the Southeast. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening. However, instability is forecast to be weak, which should limit any severe threat that develops. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Friday to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Saturday. At the surface, an area of high pressure associated with a relatively dry airmass, is forecast to move from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. This will likely minimize the potential for thunderstorms over much of the continental U.S from Friday into Saturday. On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Moisture advection will likely increase surface dewpoints across parts of southern and central Texas into the 60s F. Although thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of the southern Plains on Sunday, instability is forecast to remain weak. An isolated severe threat could develop during the afternoon and evening, but any threat will likely remain marginal due to a lack of instability. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the southern Plains, as a mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. The exit region of the mid-level jet is expected to move from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Medium-range model forecasts suggest that convection will be likely ahead of the trough from central and east Texas into Louisiana Monday afternoon and evening. Although deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be sufficient for severe storms, instability is forecast to remain weak ahead of the system. While an isolated severe threat will be possible Monday afternoon and evening in parts of Texas and Louisiana, model solutions suggest that the quality of the airmass ahead of the system will remain poor. At this time, there is considerable uncertainty concerning a potential severe threat. On Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to move across the Southeast. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening. However, instability is forecast to be weak, which should limit any severe threat that develops. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Friday to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Saturday. At the surface, an area of high pressure associated with a relatively dry airmass, is forecast to move from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. This will likely minimize the potential for thunderstorms over much of the continental U.S from Friday into Saturday. On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Moisture advection will likely increase surface dewpoints across parts of southern and central Texas into the 60s F. Although thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of the southern Plains on Sunday, instability is forecast to remain weak. An isolated severe threat could develop during the afternoon and evening, but any threat will likely remain marginal due to a lack of instability. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the southern Plains, as a mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. The exit region of the mid-level jet is expected to move from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Medium-range model forecasts suggest that convection will be likely ahead of the trough from central and east Texas into Louisiana Monday afternoon and evening. Although deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be sufficient for severe storms, instability is forecast to remain weak ahead of the system. While an isolated severe threat will be possible Monday afternoon and evening in parts of Texas and Louisiana, model solutions suggest that the quality of the airmass ahead of the system will remain poor. At this time, there is considerable uncertainty concerning a potential severe threat. On Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to move across the Southeast. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening. However, instability is forecast to be weak, which should limit any severe threat that develops. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Friday to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Saturday. At the surface, an area of high pressure associated with a relatively dry airmass, is forecast to move from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. This will likely minimize the potential for thunderstorms over much of the continental U.S from Friday into Saturday. On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Moisture advection will likely increase surface dewpoints across parts of southern and central Texas into the 60s F. Although thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of the southern Plains on Sunday, instability is forecast to remain weak. An isolated severe threat could develop during the afternoon and evening, but any threat will likely remain marginal due to a lack of instability. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the southern Plains, as a mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. The exit region of the mid-level jet is expected to move from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Medium-range model forecasts suggest that convection will be likely ahead of the trough from central and east Texas into Louisiana Monday afternoon and evening. Although deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be sufficient for severe storms, instability is forecast to remain weak ahead of the system. While an isolated severe threat will be possible Monday afternoon and evening in parts of Texas and Louisiana, model solutions suggest that the quality of the airmass ahead of the system will remain poor. At this time, there is considerable uncertainty concerning a potential severe threat. On Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to move across the Southeast. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening. However, instability is forecast to be weak, which should limit any severe threat that develops. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Friday to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Saturday. At the surface, an area of high pressure associated with a relatively dry airmass, is forecast to move from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. This will likely minimize the potential for thunderstorms over much of the continental U.S from Friday into Saturday. On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. Moisture advection will likely increase surface dewpoints across parts of southern and central Texas into the 60s F. Although thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of the southern Plains on Sunday, instability is forecast to remain weak. An isolated severe threat could develop during the afternoon and evening, but any threat will likely remain marginal due to a lack of instability. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the southern Plains, as a mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. The exit region of the mid-level jet is expected to move from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Medium-range model forecasts suggest that convection will be likely ahead of the trough from central and east Texas into Louisiana Monday afternoon and evening. Although deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be sufficient for severe storms, instability is forecast to remain weak ahead of the system. While an isolated severe threat will be possible Monday afternoon and evening in parts of Texas and Louisiana, model solutions suggest that the quality of the airmass ahead of the system will remain poor. At this time, there is considerable uncertainty concerning a potential severe threat. On Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to move across the Southeast. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening. However, instability is forecast to be weak, which should limit any severe threat that develops. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida, southern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina on Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States during the period. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. A few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night to the east of the trough over the Florida Peninsula, and along parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Instability in these areas is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of central California ahead of an upper-level system in the eastern Pacific. No thunderstorms are expected over the remainder the continental United States Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida, southern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina on Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States during the period. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. A few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night to the east of the trough over the Florida Peninsula, and along parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Instability in these areas is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of central California ahead of an upper-level system in the eastern Pacific. No thunderstorms are expected over the remainder the continental United States Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida, southern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina on Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States during the period. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. A few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night to the east of the trough over the Florida Peninsula, and along parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Instability in these areas is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of central California ahead of an upper-level system in the eastern Pacific. No thunderstorms are expected over the remainder the continental United States Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida, southern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina on Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States during the period. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. A few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night to the east of the trough over the Florida Peninsula, and along parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Instability in these areas is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of central California ahead of an upper-level system in the eastern Pacific. No thunderstorms are expected over the remainder the continental United States Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida, southern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina on Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States during the period. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. A few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night to the east of the trough over the Florida Peninsula, and along parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Instability in these areas is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of central California ahead of an upper-level system in the eastern Pacific. No thunderstorms are expected over the remainder the continental United States Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are limited for Wednesday across the country. Broad upper ridging is expected to remain in place across the central CONUS through Wednesday. Embedded shortwave troughs propagating through the mean flow will likely result in some surface pressure falls and attendant wind responses across the northern High Plains and Great Lakes through the day, but overall wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign (less than 20 mph based on recent ensemble guidance). Additionally, the maintenance of a southerly flow regime across the Plains will continue to foster weak moisture advection and reduce the potential for reaching elevated/critical RH criteria. One exception to this is central to southern WY, where the combination of modest lee troughing and a belt of 20-30 mph southwesterly mid-level flow should support areas of strong winds in the lee of terrain features. Downslope warming may allow for patchy elevated fire weather conditions, but mid and high-level cloud cover may offset the effects of compressional warming/drying and modulate diurnal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more