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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z A few hours of marginally elevated fire weather conditions appear more likely within parts of the Piedmont. RH at or below 30% is still expected. The strongest pressure gradient may occur prior to the warmest temperatures during the afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph (locally higher) will be possible. A few higher gusts could also occur, though vertical mixing will not likely be overly robust. Given the state of fuels and recent fire activity, some potential for large fires, or at least exacerbation of current fires, will exist. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... The broad upper trough over the eastern US is forecast to move offshore as moderate to strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreads the northeastern US. At the same time, broad toughing to the west will shift eastward into the Four Corners and southern Plains deepening a lee low east of the Rockies. To the east, high pressure over the MS and OH Valleys will force gusty northerly winds over parts of the Appalachians as a cold front moves into the Southeast. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of VA and NC Saturday, but broader fire-weather concerns should remain limited. ...Central Appalachians... In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure is forecast to develop over the lower OH Valley. The increase in the surface pressure gradient will help bolster northwesterly surface winds across parts of western VA and NC Saturday afternoon. While slightly cooler given the post-frontal air mass, downslope drying with RH values below 30% and occasional gusts to 15 mph may support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions given, unseasonably dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough near the CA coast early Saturday morning will feature a disturbance moving through its base and reaching the central High Plains by mid evening. An upstream disturbance will dig southeast from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin during the period, thereby reinforcing the larger-scale trough over the West. Surface high pressure will be centered over the MS Valley and lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur over the central/southern High Plains. The initial stage of poleward transport of low-level moisture will occur across the southern High Plains into western KS as a LLJ intensifies Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the Four Corners states during the day/evening before isolated showers/thunderstorm chances develop overnight across parts of the Great Plains. Farther west, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of CA into NV where pockets of weak instability develops. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough near the CA coast early Saturday morning will feature a disturbance moving through its base and reaching the central High Plains by mid evening. An upstream disturbance will dig southeast from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin during the period, thereby reinforcing the larger-scale trough over the West. Surface high pressure will be centered over the MS Valley and lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur over the central/southern High Plains. The initial stage of poleward transport of low-level moisture will occur across the southern High Plains into western KS as a LLJ intensifies Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the Four Corners states during the day/evening before isolated showers/thunderstorm chances develop overnight across parts of the Great Plains. Farther west, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of CA into NV where pockets of weak instability develops. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough near the CA coast early Saturday morning will feature a disturbance moving through its base and reaching the central High Plains by mid evening. An upstream disturbance will dig southeast from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin during the period, thereby reinforcing the larger-scale trough over the West. Surface high pressure will be centered over the MS Valley and lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur over the central/southern High Plains. The initial stage of poleward transport of low-level moisture will occur across the southern High Plains into western KS as a LLJ intensifies Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the Four Corners states during the day/evening before isolated showers/thunderstorm chances develop overnight across parts of the Great Plains. Farther west, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of CA into NV where pockets of weak instability develops. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough near the CA coast early Saturday morning will feature a disturbance moving through its base and reaching the central High Plains by mid evening. An upstream disturbance will dig southeast from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin during the period, thereby reinforcing the larger-scale trough over the West. Surface high pressure will be centered over the MS Valley and lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur over the central/southern High Plains. The initial stage of poleward transport of low-level moisture will occur across the southern High Plains into western KS as a LLJ intensifies Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the Four Corners states during the day/evening before isolated showers/thunderstorm chances develop overnight across parts of the Great Plains. Farther west, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of CA into NV where pockets of weak instability develops. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough near the CA coast early Saturday morning will feature a disturbance moving through its base and reaching the central High Plains by mid evening. An upstream disturbance will dig southeast from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin during the period, thereby reinforcing the larger-scale trough over the West. Surface high pressure will be centered over the MS Valley and lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur over the central/southern High Plains. The initial stage of poleward transport of low-level moisture will occur across the southern High Plains into western KS as a LLJ intensifies Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the Four Corners states during the day/evening before isolated showers/thunderstorm chances develop overnight across parts of the Great Plains. Farther west, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of CA into NV where pockets of weak instability develops. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough near the CA coast early Saturday morning will feature a disturbance moving through its base and reaching the central High Plains by mid evening. An upstream disturbance will dig southeast from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin during the period, thereby reinforcing the larger-scale trough over the West. Surface high pressure will be centered over the MS Valley and lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur over the central/southern High Plains. The initial stage of poleward transport of low-level moisture will occur across the southern High Plains into western KS as a LLJ intensifies Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the Four Corners states during the day/evening before isolated showers/thunderstorm chances develop overnight across parts of the Great Plains. Farther west, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of CA into NV where pockets of weak instability develops. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough near the CA coast early Saturday morning will feature a disturbance moving through its base and reaching the central High Plains by mid evening. An upstream disturbance will dig southeast from the eastern Pacific into the Great Basin during the period, thereby reinforcing the larger-scale trough over the West. Surface high pressure will be centered over the MS Valley and lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur over the central/southern High Plains. The initial stage of poleward transport of low-level moisture will occur across the southern High Plains into western KS as a LLJ intensifies Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the Four Corners states during the day/evening before isolated showers/thunderstorm chances develop overnight across parts of the Great Plains. Farther west, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of CA into NV where pockets of weak instability develops. ..Smith.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Bentley.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Bentley.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Bentley.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Bentley.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Bentley.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... A long-wave trough will continue advancing eastward across eastern North America today, accompanied by a southeastward surface cold-frontal advance across the eastern half of the country. By late in the period, this front will have cleared most of the southern and eastern U.S., with northerly low-level flow prevailing. Farther west, an upper low off the California coast is forecast to weaken, moving inland as an open wave through the period. Showers will continue over eastern Florida this afternoon near a weak offshore surface low, though most lightning should remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, and offshore. Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front advances, showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will affect portions of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today. Overnight, as the front crosses the East Coast states, a few lightning flashes may occur near the North Carolina Outer Banks. Finally, thunder may occur across portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the advancing upper system. In all of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Bentley.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more