Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. ...20Z Update... Only notable change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. Thunderstorms that develop along/near a cold front this afternoon may be capable of producing occasional hail near severe limits, along with strong to locally damaging winds. See Mesoscale Discussion 146 for more details. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...AR/TN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today. A surface low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front. This will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across central AR into west/middle TN. Forecast soundings in this zone show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early evening. The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due to weakening instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. ...20Z Update... Only notable change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. Thunderstorms that develop along/near a cold front this afternoon may be capable of producing occasional hail near severe limits, along with strong to locally damaging winds. See Mesoscale Discussion 146 for more details. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...AR/TN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today. A surface low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front. This will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across central AR into west/middle TN. Forecast soundings in this zone show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early evening. The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due to weakening instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. ...20Z Update... Only notable change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. Thunderstorms that develop along/near a cold front this afternoon may be capable of producing occasional hail near severe limits, along with strong to locally damaging winds. See Mesoscale Discussion 146 for more details. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...AR/TN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today. A surface low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front. This will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across central AR into west/middle TN. Forecast soundings in this zone show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early evening. The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due to weakening instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds will remain possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. ...20Z Update... Only notable change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. Thunderstorms that develop along/near a cold front this afternoon may be capable of producing occasional hail near severe limits, along with strong to locally damaging winds. See Mesoscale Discussion 146 for more details. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...AR/TN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today. A surface low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front. This will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across central AR into west/middle TN. Forecast soundings in this zone show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early evening. The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due to weakening instability. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Saturday across the country. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the southern High Plains on Saturday in the wake of Friday's cold frontal passage. This will result in cool temperatures and weak winds over much of southwest TX (where two-week rainfall deficits have resulted in some fuel drying). To the east across central/eastern TX, stronger 15-20 mph winds are probable, but an influx of cooler air should limit diurnal RH reductions. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Saturday across the country. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the southern High Plains on Saturday in the wake of Friday's cold frontal passage. This will result in cool temperatures and weak winds over much of southwest TX (where two-week rainfall deficits have resulted in some fuel drying). To the east across central/eastern TX, stronger 15-20 mph winds are probable, but an influx of cooler air should limit diurnal RH reductions. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Saturday across the country. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the southern High Plains on Saturday in the wake of Friday's cold frontal passage. This will result in cool temperatures and weak winds over much of southwest TX (where two-week rainfall deficits have resulted in some fuel drying). To the east across central/eastern TX, stronger 15-20 mph winds are probable, but an influx of cooler air should limit diurnal RH reductions. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Saturday across the country. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the southern High Plains on Saturday in the wake of Friday's cold frontal passage. This will result in cool temperatures and weak winds over much of southwest TX (where two-week rainfall deficits have resulted in some fuel drying). To the east across central/eastern TX, stronger 15-20 mph winds are probable, but an influx of cooler air should limit diurnal RH reductions. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential should remain low across most of the CONUS on Saturday as surface high pressure dominates east of the Rockies, with two possible exceptions. A front should extend over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon. A moist low-level airmass and diurnal heating should contribute to weak instability along and south of this boundary, even though poor mid-level lapse rates and seasonably warm temperatures aloft will likely limit the development of greater buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible with any weak convection that can develop in the vicinity of the front, although low-level convergence along this boundary is expected to remain modest at best. Occasional lightning may also occur with low-topped thunderstorms over parts of coastal northern CA as a shortwave trough moves eastward across this area Saturday afternoon and evening in tandem with cold mid-level temperatures and steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential should remain low across most of the CONUS on Saturday as surface high pressure dominates east of the Rockies, with two possible exceptions. A front should extend over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon. A moist low-level airmass and diurnal heating should contribute to weak instability along and south of this boundary, even though poor mid-level lapse rates and seasonably warm temperatures aloft will likely limit the development of greater buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible with any weak convection that can develop in the vicinity of the front, although low-level convergence along this boundary is expected to remain modest at best. Occasional lightning may also occur with low-topped thunderstorms over parts of coastal northern CA as a shortwave trough moves eastward across this area Saturday afternoon and evening in tandem with cold mid-level temperatures and steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential should remain low across most of the CONUS on Saturday as surface high pressure dominates east of the Rockies, with two possible exceptions. A front should extend over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon. A moist low-level airmass and diurnal heating should contribute to weak instability along and south of this boundary, even though poor mid-level lapse rates and seasonably warm temperatures aloft will likely limit the development of greater buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible with any weak convection that can develop in the vicinity of the front, although low-level convergence along this boundary is expected to remain modest at best. Occasional lightning may also occur with low-topped thunderstorms over parts of coastal northern CA as a shortwave trough moves eastward across this area Saturday afternoon and evening in tandem with cold mid-level temperatures and steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential should remain low across most of the CONUS on Saturday as surface high pressure dominates east of the Rockies, with two possible exceptions. A front should extend over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon. A moist low-level airmass and diurnal heating should contribute to weak instability along and south of this boundary, even though poor mid-level lapse rates and seasonably warm temperatures aloft will likely limit the development of greater buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible with any weak convection that can develop in the vicinity of the front, although low-level convergence along this boundary is expected to remain modest at best. Occasional lightning may also occur with low-topped thunderstorms over parts of coastal northern CA as a shortwave trough moves eastward across this area Saturday afternoon and evening in tandem with cold mid-level temperatures and steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential should remain low across most of the CONUS on Saturday as surface high pressure dominates east of the Rockies, with two possible exceptions. A front should extend over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon. A moist low-level airmass and diurnal heating should contribute to weak instability along and south of this boundary, even though poor mid-level lapse rates and seasonably warm temperatures aloft will likely limit the development of greater buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible with any weak convection that can develop in the vicinity of the front, although low-level convergence along this boundary is expected to remain modest at best. Occasional lightning may also occur with low-topped thunderstorms over parts of coastal northern CA as a shortwave trough moves eastward across this area Saturday afternoon and evening in tandem with cold mid-level temperatures and steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential should remain low across most of the CONUS on Saturday as surface high pressure dominates east of the Rockies, with two possible exceptions. A front should extend over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon. A moist low-level airmass and diurnal heating should contribute to weak instability along and south of this boundary, even though poor mid-level lapse rates and seasonably warm temperatures aloft will likely limit the development of greater buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible with any weak convection that can develop in the vicinity of the front, although low-level convergence along this boundary is expected to remain modest at best. Occasional lightning may also occur with low-topped thunderstorms over parts of coastal northern CA as a shortwave trough moves eastward across this area Saturday afternoon and evening in tandem with cold mid-level temperatures and steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential should remain low across most of the CONUS on Saturday as surface high pressure dominates east of the Rockies, with two possible exceptions. A front should extend over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon. A moist low-level airmass and diurnal heating should contribute to weak instability along and south of this boundary, even though poor mid-level lapse rates and seasonably warm temperatures aloft will likely limit the development of greater buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes appear possible with any weak convection that can develop in the vicinity of the front, although low-level convergence along this boundary is expected to remain modest at best. Occasional lightning may also occur with low-topped thunderstorms over parts of coastal northern CA as a shortwave trough moves eastward across this area Saturday afternoon and evening in tandem with cold mid-level temperatures and steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 16 17:04:02 UTC 2024.

Drought during the 2023 summer stressed Missouri pastures, leaving hay availability and quality varying by geography. While state data indicate that that hay supplies were adequate, producers say otherwise. AgUpdate (Tekamah, Neb.), Feb 15, 2024

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show limited overnight RH recovery ongoing across portions of the southern High Plains with RH values between 20-30%. This dry air mass should remain in place through the day as a cold front pushes south across eastern NM, TX, and OK. With the departure of a modest surface low to the east by peak heating, wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign across the driest areas of southwest TX with stronger winds (15-20 mph) likely behind the cold front. Ensemble probabilities yield limited confidence in substantial spatial/temporal overlap of sufficiently low RH and sustained winds above elevated thresholds, resulting in low fire weather concerns for today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show limited overnight RH recovery ongoing across portions of the southern High Plains with RH values between 20-30%. This dry air mass should remain in place through the day as a cold front pushes south across eastern NM, TX, and OK. With the departure of a modest surface low to the east by peak heating, wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign across the driest areas of southwest TX with stronger winds (15-20 mph) likely behind the cold front. Ensemble probabilities yield limited confidence in substantial spatial/temporal overlap of sufficiently low RH and sustained winds above elevated thresholds, resulting in low fire weather concerns for today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show limited overnight RH recovery ongoing across portions of the southern High Plains with RH values between 20-30%. This dry air mass should remain in place through the day as a cold front pushes south across eastern NM, TX, and OK. With the departure of a modest surface low to the east by peak heating, wind speeds are expected to remain fairly benign across the driest areas of southwest TX with stronger winds (15-20 mph) likely behind the cold front. Ensemble probabilities yield limited confidence in substantial spatial/temporal overlap of sufficiently low RH and sustained winds above elevated thresholds, resulting in low fire weather concerns for today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more