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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will encompass the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. Several mid-level perturbations will quickly move east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are forecast Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but 10-percent thunderstorm coverage is not currently expected. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Smith.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will encompass the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. Several mid-level perturbations will quickly move east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are forecast Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but 10-percent thunderstorm coverage is not currently expected. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Smith.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will encompass the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. Several mid-level perturbations will quickly move east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are forecast Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but 10-percent thunderstorm coverage is not currently expected. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Smith.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Appalachians is forecast to continue progressing quickly northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Tuesday morning. An attendant surface low will take a similar path, before then deepening off the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast during the day. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, with a small portion of southern FL likely still ahead of this front at 12Z Tuesday. However, this front should continue quickly southward/southeastward clearing the south FL coast and FL Keys by 15Z. Warm temperatures aloft should limit the thunderstorm potential across south FL and the Keys ahead of this front. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies in the wake of this front. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move across the western CONUS on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough forecast to approach the West Coast late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Even so, the lack of appreciable moisture should limit buoyancy, with stable conditions anticipated across the western CONUS throughout the period. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Appalachians is forecast to continue progressing quickly northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Tuesday morning. An attendant surface low will take a similar path, before then deepening off the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast during the day. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, with a small portion of southern FL likely still ahead of this front at 12Z Tuesday. However, this front should continue quickly southward/southeastward clearing the south FL coast and FL Keys by 15Z. Warm temperatures aloft should limit the thunderstorm potential across south FL and the Keys ahead of this front. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies in the wake of this front. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move across the western CONUS on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough forecast to approach the West Coast late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Even so, the lack of appreciable moisture should limit buoyancy, with stable conditions anticipated across the western CONUS throughout the period. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Appalachians is forecast to continue progressing quickly northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Tuesday morning. An attendant surface low will take a similar path, before then deepening off the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast during the day. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, with a small portion of southern FL likely still ahead of this front at 12Z Tuesday. However, this front should continue quickly southward/southeastward clearing the south FL coast and FL Keys by 15Z. Warm temperatures aloft should limit the thunderstorm potential across south FL and the Keys ahead of this front. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies in the wake of this front. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move across the western CONUS on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough forecast to approach the West Coast late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Even so, the lack of appreciable moisture should limit buoyancy, with stable conditions anticipated across the western CONUS throughout the period. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Appalachians is forecast to continue progressing quickly northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Tuesday morning. An attendant surface low will take a similar path, before then deepening off the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast during the day. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, with a small portion of southern FL likely still ahead of this front at 12Z Tuesday. However, this front should continue quickly southward/southeastward clearing the south FL coast and FL Keys by 15Z. Warm temperatures aloft should limit the thunderstorm potential across south FL and the Keys ahead of this front. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies in the wake of this front. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move across the western CONUS on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough forecast to approach the West Coast late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Even so, the lack of appreciable moisture should limit buoyancy, with stable conditions anticipated across the western CONUS throughout the period. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Appalachians is forecast to continue progressing quickly northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Tuesday morning. An attendant surface low will take a similar path, before then deepening off the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast during the day. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, with a small portion of southern FL likely still ahead of this front at 12Z Tuesday. However, this front should continue quickly southward/southeastward clearing the south FL coast and FL Keys by 15Z. Warm temperatures aloft should limit the thunderstorm potential across south FL and the Keys ahead of this front. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies in the wake of this front. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move across the western CONUS on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough forecast to approach the West Coast late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Even so, the lack of appreciable moisture should limit buoyancy, with stable conditions anticipated across the western CONUS throughout the period. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TN/NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE IN TEXT ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily across the coastal Carolinas overnight. ...01Z Update... ...Eastern TN/Northeast GA through the Carolinas... A strongly forced, shallow convective line continues to push eastward across eastern TN and western GA, forced by strong ascent attendant to the eastward-moving shortwave currently over the Mid-South. This line is forecast to continue eastward this evening and overnight, moving across Carolinas and offshore by early Tuesday. Buoyancy ahead of the line will remain limited, but a few convectively augmented gusts are still possible across this region this evening and overnight Current surface observation place the 60 deg F dewpoints over southern GA. There is some potential for this better low-level moisture to advect northward into the coastal portions of the Carolinas, augmented by some advection off the Atlantic as well. This could help foster modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line, contributing to a greater chance for deeper updrafts and near-surface-based storms capable of a few damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado. ..Mosier.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TN/NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE IN TEXT ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily across the coastal Carolinas overnight. ...01Z Update... ...Eastern TN/Northeast GA through the Carolinas... A strongly forced, shallow convective line continues to push eastward across eastern TN and western GA, forced by strong ascent attendant to the eastward-moving shortwave currently over the Mid-South. This line is forecast to continue eastward this evening and overnight, moving across Carolinas and offshore by early Tuesday. Buoyancy ahead of the line will remain limited, but a few convectively augmented gusts are still possible across this region this evening and overnight Current surface observation place the 60 deg F dewpoints over southern GA. There is some potential for this better low-level moisture to advect northward into the coastal portions of the Carolinas, augmented by some advection off the Atlantic as well. This could help foster modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line, contributing to a greater chance for deeper updrafts and near-surface-based storms capable of a few damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado. ..Mosier.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TN/NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily across the coastal Carolinas overnight. ...01Z Update... ...Eastern TN/Northeast GA through the Carolinas... A strongly forced, shallow convective line continues to push eastward across eastern TN and western GA, forced by strong ascent attendant to the eastward-moving shortwave currently over the Mid-South. This line is forecast to continue eastward this evening and overnight, moving across Carolinas and offshore by early Wednesday. Buoyancy ahead of the line will remain limited, but a few convectively augmented gusts are still possible across this region this evening and overnight Current surface observation place the 60 deg F dewpoints over southern GA. There is some potential for this better low-level moisture to advect northward into the coastal portions of the Carolinas, augmented by some advection off the Atlantic as well. This could help foster modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line, contributing to a greater chance for deeper updrafts and near-surface-based storms capable of a few damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado. ..Mosier.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A low-amplitude midlevel trough will cross the central/southern Rockies on D3/Wednesday, favoring lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains and dry/breezy conditions over parts of the southern High Plains. However, recent precipitation atop already marginal fuels will limit most fire-weather concerns. Additional lee cyclogenesis is expected in the northern/central High Plains on D4/Thursday in response to strengthening zonal flow, though a minimal wind/RH overlap and unreceptive fuels will mitigate fire-weather potential over the central High Plains. Thereafter, cold post-frontal air will overspread the Plains, followed by the approach of a large-scale western-CONUS trough late in the extended forecast period. While dry/breezy conditions may develop ahead of this system from the Southwest into the Plains on D7-D8/Sunday-Monday, marginal fuels cast uncertainty on the fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A low-amplitude midlevel trough will cross the central/southern Rockies on D3/Wednesday, favoring lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains and dry/breezy conditions over parts of the southern High Plains. However, recent precipitation atop already marginal fuels will limit most fire-weather concerns. Additional lee cyclogenesis is expected in the northern/central High Plains on D4/Thursday in response to strengthening zonal flow, though a minimal wind/RH overlap and unreceptive fuels will mitigate fire-weather potential over the central High Plains. Thereafter, cold post-frontal air will overspread the Plains, followed by the approach of a large-scale western-CONUS trough late in the extended forecast period. While dry/breezy conditions may develop ahead of this system from the Southwest into the Plains on D7-D8/Sunday-Monday, marginal fuels cast uncertainty on the fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A low-amplitude midlevel trough will cross the central/southern Rockies on D3/Wednesday, favoring lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains and dry/breezy conditions over parts of the southern High Plains. However, recent precipitation atop already marginal fuels will limit most fire-weather concerns. Additional lee cyclogenesis is expected in the northern/central High Plains on D4/Thursday in response to strengthening zonal flow, though a minimal wind/RH overlap and unreceptive fuels will mitigate fire-weather potential over the central High Plains. Thereafter, cold post-frontal air will overspread the Plains, followed by the approach of a large-scale western-CONUS trough late in the extended forecast period. While dry/breezy conditions may develop ahead of this system from the Southwest into the Plains on D7-D8/Sunday-Monday, marginal fuels cast uncertainty on the fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 12 21:56:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 12 21:56:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. The upper trough will continue to move east/northeast toward the Carolinas through tonight, with gradual deepening along with the surface low. The primary mitigating factor to severe potential through tomorrow morning will continue to be limited instability, as shear will be strong with this system. As of 20Z, widespread rain persists from GA into SC, with the more appreciable SBCAPE from far southern GA into northern FL. Meanwhile, weak instability was developing from AL into TN, where rapid cooling aloft will occur later today, along with low-level drying as winds veer. The greatest chance of a few severe storms appears to be from northern FL into southern GA coincident with the plume of instability. More isolated activity cannot be ruled out beneath the vorticity maximum as it moves across Middle and eastern TN as well, though that area is more conditional. In all cases, strong shear could support a supercell or two, with tornado or damaging wind risk. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. The upper trough will continue to move east/northeast toward the Carolinas through tonight, with gradual deepening along with the surface low. The primary mitigating factor to severe potential through tomorrow morning will continue to be limited instability, as shear will be strong with this system. As of 20Z, widespread rain persists from GA into SC, with the more appreciable SBCAPE from far southern GA into northern FL. Meanwhile, weak instability was developing from AL into TN, where rapid cooling aloft will occur later today, along with low-level drying as winds veer. The greatest chance of a few severe storms appears to be from northern FL into southern GA coincident with the plume of instability. More isolated activity cannot be ruled out beneath the vorticity maximum as it moves across Middle and eastern TN as well, though that area is more conditional. In all cases, strong shear could support a supercell or two, with tornado or damaging wind risk. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. The upper trough will continue to move east/northeast toward the Carolinas through tonight, with gradual deepening along with the surface low. The primary mitigating factor to severe potential through tomorrow morning will continue to be limited instability, as shear will be strong with this system. As of 20Z, widespread rain persists from GA into SC, with the more appreciable SBCAPE from far southern GA into northern FL. Meanwhile, weak instability was developing from AL into TN, where rapid cooling aloft will occur later today, along with low-level drying as winds veer. The greatest chance of a few severe storms appears to be from northern FL into southern GA coincident with the plume of instability. More isolated activity cannot be ruled out beneath the vorticity maximum as it moves across Middle and eastern TN as well, though that area is more conditional. In all cases, strong shear could support a supercell or two, with tornado or damaging wind risk. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. The upper trough will continue to move east/northeast toward the Carolinas through tonight, with gradual deepening along with the surface low. The primary mitigating factor to severe potential through tomorrow morning will continue to be limited instability, as shear will be strong with this system. As of 20Z, widespread rain persists from GA into SC, with the more appreciable SBCAPE from far southern GA into northern FL. Meanwhile, weak instability was developing from AL into TN, where rapid cooling aloft will occur later today, along with low-level drying as winds veer. The greatest chance of a few severe storms appears to be from northern FL into southern GA coincident with the plume of instability. More isolated activity cannot be ruled out beneath the vorticity maximum as it moves across Middle and eastern TN as well, though that area is more conditional. In all cases, strong shear could support a supercell or two, with tornado or damaging wind risk. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. Read more