Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Lower/Middle TX Coast... Upper trough, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, will eject slowly east across northern Mexico Sunday. High-level diffluent flow will be more pronounced downstream across south TX as this feature translates toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. In response, a weak surface wave will evolve over the western Gulf Basin, just off the south TX Coast. Strengthening 850mb flow atop this coastal front will encourage elevated convection, despite the marginal lapse rates, as thermodynamic profiles will be quite moist, leading to weak buoyancy. NAM forecast soundings for coastal South TX suggest upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may evolve if lifting a parcel near 1km. This should be more than adequate for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Lower/Middle TX Coast... Upper trough, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, will eject slowly east across northern Mexico Sunday. High-level diffluent flow will be more pronounced downstream across south TX as this feature translates toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. In response, a weak surface wave will evolve over the western Gulf Basin, just off the south TX Coast. Strengthening 850mb flow atop this coastal front will encourage elevated convection, despite the marginal lapse rates, as thermodynamic profiles will be quite moist, leading to weak buoyancy. NAM forecast soundings for coastal South TX suggest upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may evolve if lifting a parcel near 1km. This should be more than adequate for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast, but no severe threat is expected. ...Lower/Middle TX Coast... Upper trough, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, will eject slowly east across northern Mexico Sunday. High-level diffluent flow will be more pronounced downstream across south TX as this feature translates toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. In response, a weak surface wave will evolve over the western Gulf Basin, just off the south TX Coast. Strengthening 850mb flow atop this coastal front will encourage elevated convection, despite the marginal lapse rates, as thermodynamic profiles will be quite moist, leading to weak buoyancy. NAM forecast soundings for coastal South TX suggest upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may evolve if lifting a parcel near 1km. This should be more than adequate for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from a few flashes of lightning for the next several hours, the threat of lightning is negligible across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Weak midlevel height rises will be noted across the northwestern US tonight in the wake of a short wave trough advancing toward the northern Rockies. While 00z sounding from UIL exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, very little lightning has been noted with showers across this region. In the absence of meaningful large-scale ascent, thunderstorms are not expected across this region the rest of the period. A few flashes of lightning have recently been observed with weak convection over the central FL Peninsula. While 00z soundings from this region are not particularly impressive, most-recent guidance continues to suggest the threat for isolated thunderstorms through mid evening. Otherwise, thunderstorm potential will wane after 03-04z. ..Darrow.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from a few flashes of lightning for the next several hours, the threat of lightning is negligible across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Weak midlevel height rises will be noted across the northwestern US tonight in the wake of a short wave trough advancing toward the northern Rockies. While 00z sounding from UIL exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, very little lightning has been noted with showers across this region. In the absence of meaningful large-scale ascent, thunderstorms are not expected across this region the rest of the period. A few flashes of lightning have recently been observed with weak convection over the central FL Peninsula. While 00z soundings from this region are not particularly impressive, most-recent guidance continues to suggest the threat for isolated thunderstorms through mid evening. Otherwise, thunderstorm potential will wane after 03-04z. ..Darrow.. 11/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from a few flashes of lightning for the next several hours, the threat of lightning is negligible across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Weak midlevel height rises will be noted across the northwestern US tonight in the wake of a short wave trough advancing toward the northern Rockies. While 00z sounding from UIL exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, very little lightning has been noted with showers across this region. In the absence of meaningful large-scale ascent, thunderstorms are not expected across this region the rest of the period. A few flashes of lightning have recently been observed with weak convection over the central FL Peninsula. While 00z soundings from this region are not particularly impressive, most-recent guidance continues to suggest the threat for isolated thunderstorms through mid evening. Otherwise, thunderstorm potential will wane after 03-04z. ..Darrow.. 11/12/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 11 21:54:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 11 21:54:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US from D3 - Monday to D5 - Wednesday as the result of a trough deepening within the Pacific. This will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US late in the period D5- Wednesday through D8- Saturday. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California before drier air is replaced by increasing moisture and chances for wetting precipitation. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions through D6 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US from D3 - Monday to D5 - Wednesday as the result of a trough deepening within the Pacific. This will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US late in the period D5- Wednesday through D8- Saturday. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California before drier air is replaced by increasing moisture and chances for wetting precipitation. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions through D6 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US from D3 - Monday to D5 - Wednesday as the result of a trough deepening within the Pacific. This will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US late in the period D5- Wednesday through D8- Saturday. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California before drier air is replaced by increasing moisture and chances for wetting precipitation. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions through D6 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... The potential for critical fire weather conditions appears low for Sunday. An upper wave currently moving into the northeastern Pacific is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls along the West/Pacific Northwest coasts will strengthen southerly winds over the southern Great Basin. Dry conditions are expected across a broad swath of the western and central CONUS Sunday afternoon with RH values in the teens to 20s from CA to the central Plains. However, southerly low-level wind trajectories emanating off of the southern Sierra Nevada and the southern CA desert will support RH reductions into the low teens, and perhaps single digits, across central NV to far southern ID. Winds gusting up to 15-20 mph will likely result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather concerns, but latest ERC analyses suggests fuels are only modestly receptive at this time (ERCs between the 50-75th percentiles). Highlights are withheld given the uncertain fuel status and somewhat localized nature of the threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. The offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast will continue to weaken through the day Sunday, but localized elevated conditions are possibly early Sunday morning for wind-prone locations within the higher terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington and central Florida today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the 1630Z forecast. ..Squitieri.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...WA... Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS today. However, a few lightning flashes will be possible over northwest WA as a strong westerly upper jet and cold temperatures aloft spread across the region. Lightning has been observed over Vancouver Island this morning, and further activity is possible as the strongest forcing moves eastward this afternoon. ...FL... Other lightning flashes may also occur over portions of central FL this afternoon and early evening. A warm and humid low-level air mass is present, coupled with marginal CAPE values. Despite weak large scale forcing for ascent, diurnal heating and weak sea-breeze convergence will result in scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two later today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington and central Florida today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the 1630Z forecast. ..Squitieri.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...WA... Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS today. However, a few lightning flashes will be possible over northwest WA as a strong westerly upper jet and cold temperatures aloft spread across the region. Lightning has been observed over Vancouver Island this morning, and further activity is possible as the strongest forcing moves eastward this afternoon. ...FL... Other lightning flashes may also occur over portions of central FL this afternoon and early evening. A warm and humid low-level air mass is present, coupled with marginal CAPE values. Despite weak large scale forcing for ascent, diurnal heating and weak sea-breeze convergence will result in scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two later today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington and central Florida today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the 1630Z forecast. ..Squitieri.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...WA... Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS today. However, a few lightning flashes will be possible over northwest WA as a strong westerly upper jet and cold temperatures aloft spread across the region. Lightning has been observed over Vancouver Island this morning, and further activity is possible as the strongest forcing moves eastward this afternoon. ...FL... Other lightning flashes may also occur over portions of central FL this afternoon and early evening. A warm and humid low-level air mass is present, coupled with marginal CAPE values. Despite weak large scale forcing for ascent, diurnal heating and weak sea-breeze convergence will result in scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two later today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across northwest Washington and central Florida today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the 1630Z forecast. ..Squitieri.. 11/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2023/ ...WA... Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS today. However, a few lightning flashes will be possible over northwest WA as a strong westerly upper jet and cold temperatures aloft spread across the region. Lightning has been observed over Vancouver Island this morning, and further activity is possible as the strongest forcing moves eastward this afternoon. ...FL... Other lightning flashes may also occur over portions of central FL this afternoon and early evening. A warm and humid low-level air mass is present, coupled with marginal CAPE values. Despite weak large scale forcing for ascent, diurnal heating and weak sea-breeze convergence will result in scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two later today. Read more