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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain confined to portions of the Southwest late tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential generally remains low for today and tonight across much of the country with the exception of the southern AZ/NM border. A compact shortwave trough off the southern CA coast will move inland through the day, reaching AZ/NM by early Tuesday morning. Cool temperatures aloft and broad-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low will promote mid-level destabilization heading into the overnight hours. Despite a substantial dry layer in place across the region, advected PWAT imagery shows higher-quality moisture in the 850-700 mb layer that was not sampled by 00 UTC soundings and should move inland with the low. Consequently, sufficiently lift, moisture, and destabilization should be in place for at least isolated lightning flashes. To the east, a positively-tilted upper trough over the Midwest will gradually shift east over the next 24 hours as shortwave ridging builds across the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build across the Plains and mid-MS River Valley as a cold front pushes south into the Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes are possible along the TX Gulf Coast this morning as the front moves offshore, but an early frontal passage offset from peak diurnal warming, coupled with marginal lapse-rates and dry air aloft, casts doubt on the lightning potential over land. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain confined to portions of the Southwest late tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential generally remains low for today and tonight across much of the country with the exception of the southern AZ/NM border. A compact shortwave trough off the southern CA coast will move inland through the day, reaching AZ/NM by early Tuesday morning. Cool temperatures aloft and broad-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low will promote mid-level destabilization heading into the overnight hours. Despite a substantial dry layer in place across the region, advected PWAT imagery shows higher-quality moisture in the 850-700 mb layer that was not sampled by 00 UTC soundings and should move inland with the low. Consequently, sufficiently lift, moisture, and destabilization should be in place for at least isolated lightning flashes. To the east, a positively-tilted upper trough over the Midwest will gradually shift east over the next 24 hours as shortwave ridging builds across the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build across the Plains and mid-MS River Valley as a cold front pushes south into the Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes are possible along the TX Gulf Coast this morning as the front moves offshore, but an early frontal passage offset from peak diurnal warming, coupled with marginal lapse-rates and dry air aloft, casts doubt on the lightning potential over land. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain confined to portions of the Southwest late tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential generally remains low for today and tonight across much of the country with the exception of the southern AZ/NM border. A compact shortwave trough off the southern CA coast will move inland through the day, reaching AZ/NM by early Tuesday morning. Cool temperatures aloft and broad-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low will promote mid-level destabilization heading into the overnight hours. Despite a substantial dry layer in place across the region, advected PWAT imagery shows higher-quality moisture in the 850-700 mb layer that was not sampled by 00 UTC soundings and should move inland with the low. Consequently, sufficiently lift, moisture, and destabilization should be in place for at least isolated lightning flashes. To the east, a positively-tilted upper trough over the Midwest will gradually shift east over the next 24 hours as shortwave ridging builds across the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build across the Plains and mid-MS River Valley as a cold front pushes south into the Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes are possible along the TX Gulf Coast this morning as the front moves offshore, but an early frontal passage offset from peak diurnal warming, coupled with marginal lapse-rates and dry air aloft, casts doubt on the lightning potential over land. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 31 22:17:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 31 22:17:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D4 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D5 Thursday - D6 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Overall, cool and wet conditions along with seasonably moist fuels will keep fire spread potential low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D4 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D5 Thursday - D6 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Overall, cool and wet conditions along with seasonably moist fuels will keep fire spread potential low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms appears very low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough within the East will continue its progress southeastward before moving offshore late Monday/early Tuesday. Another upper-level trough will move into northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. At the surface, a cold front will push into the northern Gulf. Presently, the greatest potential for thunderstorms will likely remain offshore along the Gulf cold front. Cooling aloft will support a small increase in elevated buoyancy in parts of the Southwest. Given the dry air currently in place within the region and little change expected, thermodynamic profiles are not anticipated to support much if any lightning. Isolated lightning flashes could occur near the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, but should remain well below the 10% coverage threshold. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms appears very low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough within the East will continue its progress southeastward before moving offshore late Monday/early Tuesday. Another upper-level trough will move into northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. At the surface, a cold front will push into the northern Gulf. Presently, the greatest potential for thunderstorms will likely remain offshore along the Gulf cold front. Cooling aloft will support a small increase in elevated buoyancy in parts of the Southwest. Given the dry air currently in place within the region and little change expected, thermodynamic profiles are not anticipated to support much if any lightning. Isolated lightning flashes could occur near the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, but should remain well below the 10% coverage threshold. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 Read more