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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to move eastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. While isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, this activity should remain offshore as a surface cold front moves southward over this area through the day. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through Monday night. Generally dry and/or stable conditions across the CONUS are expected to limit thunderstorm potential over land. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to move eastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. While isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, this activity should remain offshore as a surface cold front moves southward over this area through the day. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through Monday night. Generally dry and/or stable conditions across the CONUS are expected to limit thunderstorm potential over land. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to move eastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. While isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, this activity should remain offshore as a surface cold front moves southward over this area through the day. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through Monday night. Generally dry and/or stable conditions across the CONUS are expected to limit thunderstorm potential over land. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to move eastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. While isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, this activity should remain offshore as a surface cold front moves southward over this area through the day. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through Monday night. Generally dry and/or stable conditions across the CONUS are expected to limit thunderstorm potential over land. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to move eastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. While isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, this activity should remain offshore as a surface cold front moves southward over this area through the day. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through Monday night. Generally dry and/or stable conditions across the CONUS are expected to limit thunderstorm potential over land. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to move eastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. While isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, this activity should remain offshore as a surface cold front moves southward over this area through the day. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through Monday night. Generally dry and/or stable conditions across the CONUS are expected to limit thunderstorm potential over land. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today over the continental USA. ...Synopsis... Mean upper troughing from the Great Lakes into much of the East, in combination with ridging over the Rockies and a dry surface air mass, will maintain relatively stable conditions across the CONUS today, with little if any threat of thunderstorms. A meager attempt at moisture return will occur over the western Gulf of Mexico as low-level winds increase late and eventually veer in response to the mid MS/OH Valley trough. However, forecast soundings even over the water indicate shallow boundary layer moisture, with generally low-topped convective showers expected late, producing little lightning. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today over the continental USA. ...Synopsis... Mean upper troughing from the Great Lakes into much of the East, in combination with ridging over the Rockies and a dry surface air mass, will maintain relatively stable conditions across the CONUS today, with little if any threat of thunderstorms. A meager attempt at moisture return will occur over the western Gulf of Mexico as low-level winds increase late and eventually veer in response to the mid MS/OH Valley trough. However, forecast soundings even over the water indicate shallow boundary layer moisture, with generally low-topped convective showers expected late, producing little lightning. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today over the continental USA. ...Synopsis... Mean upper troughing from the Great Lakes into much of the East, in combination with ridging over the Rockies and a dry surface air mass, will maintain relatively stable conditions across the CONUS today, with little if any threat of thunderstorms. A meager attempt at moisture return will occur over the western Gulf of Mexico as low-level winds increase late and eventually veer in response to the mid MS/OH Valley trough. However, forecast soundings even over the water indicate shallow boundary layer moisture, with generally low-topped convective showers expected late, producing little lightning. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today over the continental USA. ...Synopsis... Mean upper troughing from the Great Lakes into much of the East, in combination with ridging over the Rockies and a dry surface air mass, will maintain relatively stable conditions across the CONUS today, with little if any threat of thunderstorms. A meager attempt at moisture return will occur over the western Gulf of Mexico as low-level winds increase late and eventually veer in response to the mid MS/OH Valley trough. However, forecast soundings even over the water indicate shallow boundary layer moisture, with generally low-topped convective showers expected late, producing little lightning. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today over the continental USA. ...Synopsis... Mean upper troughing from the Great Lakes into much of the East, in combination with ridging over the Rockies and a dry surface air mass, will maintain relatively stable conditions across the CONUS today, with little if any threat of thunderstorms. A meager attempt at moisture return will occur over the western Gulf of Mexico as low-level winds increase late and eventually veer in response to the mid MS/OH Valley trough. However, forecast soundings even over the water indicate shallow boundary layer moisture, with generally low-topped convective showers expected late, producing little lightning. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today over the continental USA. ...Synopsis... Mean upper troughing from the Great Lakes into much of the East, in combination with ridging over the Rockies and a dry surface air mass, will maintain relatively stable conditions across the CONUS today, with little if any threat of thunderstorms. A meager attempt at moisture return will occur over the western Gulf of Mexico as low-level winds increase late and eventually veer in response to the mid MS/OH Valley trough. However, forecast soundings even over the water indicate shallow boundary layer moisture, with generally low-topped convective showers expected late, producing little lightning. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today over the continental USA. ...Synopsis... Mean upper troughing from the Great Lakes into much of the East, in combination with ridging over the Rockies and a dry surface air mass, will maintain relatively stable conditions across the CONUS today, with little if any threat of thunderstorms. A meager attempt at moisture return will occur over the western Gulf of Mexico as low-level winds increase late and eventually veer in response to the mid MS/OH Valley trough. However, forecast soundings even over the water indicate shallow boundary layer moisture, with generally low-topped convective showers expected late, producing little lightning. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... No thunderstorms forecast. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... No thunderstorms forecast. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... No thunderstorms forecast. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... No thunderstorms forecast. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS through the extended period. An active pattern across the western/eastern US will keep continued cool and wet conditions ongoing, keeping fuels moist. Aside from a weak shortwave moving across the central US mid-week, ridging across the region will keep winds mostly light, with limited moisture return. Late in the period by D6 Thursday - D7 Friday, the ridge is expected to weaken, with a more favorable storm track across the central US bringing potential for precipitation chances. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more