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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features. Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th percentile) preclude highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features. Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th percentile) preclude highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the eastern CONUS as a second mid-level trough approaches the Southwest tomorrow/Sunday. Surface high pressure and an associated cool, dry airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, with static stability and mass subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the eastern CONUS as a second mid-level trough approaches the Southwest tomorrow/Sunday. Surface high pressure and an associated cool, dry airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, with static stability and mass subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the eastern CONUS as a second mid-level trough approaches the Southwest tomorrow/Sunday. Surface high pressure and an associated cool, dry airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, with static stability and mass subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the eastern CONUS as a second mid-level trough approaches the Southwest tomorrow/Sunday. Surface high pressure and an associated cool, dry airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, with static stability and mass subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low. Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across the rest of the CONUS. ..Dean.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low. Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across the rest of the CONUS. ..Dean.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low. Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across the rest of the CONUS. ..Dean.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low. Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across the rest of the CONUS. ..Dean.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern states. ..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern states. ..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern states. ..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern states. ..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern states. ..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023 Read more