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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... Within the prevailing split flow over the eastern Pacific, models indicate considerable amplification of mid/upper ridging across the mid-latitudes through early Saturday. This ridging may build further while slowly approaching the North American Pacific coast Saturday through Saturday night As it does, a significant downstream short wave trough is forecast to dig inland of the U.S Pacific coast, while a weaker perturbation to its south slowly pivots across the subtropical eastern Pacific toward southern Baja. Farther downstream, the mid-latitude and subtropical streams will remain largely in phase east of the southern Rockies and Mexican Plateau through the Atlantic Seaboard, around the northern periphery of subtropical ridging centered at mid-levels over the Caribbean. A lead short wave perturbation within this regime is forecast to be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley 12Z Saturday, before becoming increasingly sheared and weakening while continuing northeastward through the remainder of the period. In its wake, a trailing perturbation is generally forecast to accelerate east of the southern Rockies toward the southern Appalachians. Substantive spread remains evident among the various models concerning these developments, and associated surface cyclogenesis across the eastern Gulf/southern Mid Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, the more substantive deepening may not occur until Saturday night, offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. ...South Atlantic Coast... North of the Florida Peninsula, destabilization, coincident with favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, still appears likely to be rooted above saturated thermodynamic profiles with moist adiabatic (or more stable) lapse rates across the Georgia/Carolina coastal plain, or colder/more stable near-surface air farther inland. The development of only rather weak CAPE is forecast, limited by weak lapse rates farther aloft, and severe weather potential currently appears negligible, despite the strong deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. Building mid/upper ridging is generally forecast across much of the Florida Peninsula into and through the period, and relatively warm thermodynamic profiles characterized by weak lapse rates in upper levels may limit the potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. During the day, warming in mid-levels, and the tendency for low-level flow to veer to a westerly component (resulting in weak low-level convergence), may further inhibit the risk for severe thunderstorm development. However, there is spread among the models concerning the timing of these developments, and there may be a window of opportunity for sufficient destabilization over inland areas to maintain thunderstorm activity spreading inland off the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, it probably will coincide with sufficiently strong wind fields and shear for organized convection, including supercells, posing a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... Within the prevailing split flow over the eastern Pacific, models indicate considerable amplification of mid/upper ridging across the mid-latitudes through early Saturday. This ridging may build further while slowly approaching the North American Pacific coast Saturday through Saturday night As it does, a significant downstream short wave trough is forecast to dig inland of the U.S Pacific coast, while a weaker perturbation to its south slowly pivots across the subtropical eastern Pacific toward southern Baja. Farther downstream, the mid-latitude and subtropical streams will remain largely in phase east of the southern Rockies and Mexican Plateau through the Atlantic Seaboard, around the northern periphery of subtropical ridging centered at mid-levels over the Caribbean. A lead short wave perturbation within this regime is forecast to be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley 12Z Saturday, before becoming increasingly sheared and weakening while continuing northeastward through the remainder of the period. In its wake, a trailing perturbation is generally forecast to accelerate east of the southern Rockies toward the southern Appalachians. Substantive spread remains evident among the various models concerning these developments, and associated surface cyclogenesis across the eastern Gulf/southern Mid Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, the more substantive deepening may not occur until Saturday night, offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. ...South Atlantic Coast... North of the Florida Peninsula, destabilization, coincident with favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, still appears likely to be rooted above saturated thermodynamic profiles with moist adiabatic (or more stable) lapse rates across the Georgia/Carolina coastal plain, or colder/more stable near-surface air farther inland. The development of only rather weak CAPE is forecast, limited by weak lapse rates farther aloft, and severe weather potential currently appears negligible, despite the strong deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. Building mid/upper ridging is generally forecast across much of the Florida Peninsula into and through the period, and relatively warm thermodynamic profiles characterized by weak lapse rates in upper levels may limit the potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. During the day, warming in mid-levels, and the tendency for low-level flow to veer to a westerly component (resulting in weak low-level convergence), may further inhibit the risk for severe thunderstorm development. However, there is spread among the models concerning the timing of these developments, and there may be a window of opportunity for sufficient destabilization over inland areas to maintain thunderstorm activity spreading inland off the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, it probably will coincide with sufficiently strong wind fields and shear for organized convection, including supercells, posing a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... Within the prevailing split flow over the eastern Pacific, models indicate considerable amplification of mid/upper ridging across the mid-latitudes through early Saturday. This ridging may build further while slowly approaching the North American Pacific coast Saturday through Saturday night As it does, a significant downstream short wave trough is forecast to dig inland of the U.S Pacific coast, while a weaker perturbation to its south slowly pivots across the subtropical eastern Pacific toward southern Baja. Farther downstream, the mid-latitude and subtropical streams will remain largely in phase east of the southern Rockies and Mexican Plateau through the Atlantic Seaboard, around the northern periphery of subtropical ridging centered at mid-levels over the Caribbean. A lead short wave perturbation within this regime is forecast to be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley 12Z Saturday, before becoming increasingly sheared and weakening while continuing northeastward through the remainder of the period. In its wake, a trailing perturbation is generally forecast to accelerate east of the southern Rockies toward the southern Appalachians. Substantive spread remains evident among the various models concerning these developments, and associated surface cyclogenesis across the eastern Gulf/southern Mid Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, the more substantive deepening may not occur until Saturday night, offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. ...South Atlantic Coast... North of the Florida Peninsula, destabilization, coincident with favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, still appears likely to be rooted above saturated thermodynamic profiles with moist adiabatic (or more stable) lapse rates across the Georgia/Carolina coastal plain, or colder/more stable near-surface air farther inland. The development of only rather weak CAPE is forecast, limited by weak lapse rates farther aloft, and severe weather potential currently appears negligible, despite the strong deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. Building mid/upper ridging is generally forecast across much of the Florida Peninsula into and through the period, and relatively warm thermodynamic profiles characterized by weak lapse rates in upper levels may limit the potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. During the day, warming in mid-levels, and the tendency for low-level flow to veer to a westerly component (resulting in weak low-level convergence), may further inhibit the risk for severe thunderstorm development. However, there is spread among the models concerning the timing of these developments, and there may be a window of opportunity for sufficient destabilization over inland areas to maintain thunderstorm activity spreading inland off the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, it probably will coincide with sufficiently strong wind fields and shear for organized convection, including supercells, posing a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon through early Saturday morning across the coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the OH/TN Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern LA and MS by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization over most of the area, the exception being portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. Shear will be strong, with any severe potential conditional on the development of SBCAPE. ...Coastal LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... Substantial thunderstorm coverage is possible shortly after 12Z this morning near or just off the TX Coast, as lift along a cold front interacts with increasing low-level moisture. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected within the warm-advection regime ahead of the cold front, as positive theta-e advection occurs just above the cool boundary over land. Little to no heating is anticipated due to the rapid influx of moisture, and minimal temperature advection is expected at the surface over most inland counties. The exception may be along the Gulf Coast, where forecast soundings do indicate rising dewpoints at least into the mid 60s F, just ahead of the cold front. As such, the severe risk, including the risk for brief tornadoes or damaging gusts, appears to be confined to the coastal counties, and primarily overnight. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon through early Saturday morning across the coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the OH/TN Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern LA and MS by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization over most of the area, the exception being portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. Shear will be strong, with any severe potential conditional on the development of SBCAPE. ...Coastal LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... Substantial thunderstorm coverage is possible shortly after 12Z this morning near or just off the TX Coast, as lift along a cold front interacts with increasing low-level moisture. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected within the warm-advection regime ahead of the cold front, as positive theta-e advection occurs just above the cool boundary over land. Little to no heating is anticipated due to the rapid influx of moisture, and minimal temperature advection is expected at the surface over most inland counties. The exception may be along the Gulf Coast, where forecast soundings do indicate rising dewpoints at least into the mid 60s F, just ahead of the cold front. As such, the severe risk, including the risk for brief tornadoes or damaging gusts, appears to be confined to the coastal counties, and primarily overnight. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon through early Saturday morning across the coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the OH/TN Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern LA and MS by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization over most of the area, the exception being portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. Shear will be strong, with any severe potential conditional on the development of SBCAPE. ...Coastal LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... Substantial thunderstorm coverage is possible shortly after 12Z this morning near or just off the TX Coast, as lift along a cold front interacts with increasing low-level moisture. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected within the warm-advection regime ahead of the cold front, as positive theta-e advection occurs just above the cool boundary over land. Little to no heating is anticipated due to the rapid influx of moisture, and minimal temperature advection is expected at the surface over most inland counties. The exception may be along the Gulf Coast, where forecast soundings do indicate rising dewpoints at least into the mid 60s F, just ahead of the cold front. As such, the severe risk, including the risk for brief tornadoes or damaging gusts, appears to be confined to the coastal counties, and primarily overnight. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight over parts of southeast Texas including the Texas Coast. ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning is noted this evening over southeast NM, where cold temperatures aloft exist in proximity to the upper low. The loss of diabatic heating is expected to further reduce thunderstorm chances as the trough moves into western TX, though isolated flashes cannot be ruled out with weak elevated instability present. A greater probability of thunderstorms will develop late tonight into Friday morning over southeast TX and much of the TX Coast. Here, more robust theta-e advection will develop atop the cool boundary layer, and as 850-mb winds increase to 40 kt out of the south. Despite strong shear, little to no severe threat is forecast, due to only weak elevated instability, and cool surface air over land. ..Jewell.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight over parts of southeast Texas including the Texas Coast. ...Discussion... Sporadic lightning is noted this evening over southeast NM, where cold temperatures aloft exist in proximity to the upper low. The loss of diabatic heating is expected to further reduce thunderstorm chances as the trough moves into western TX, though isolated flashes cannot be ruled out with weak elevated instability present. A greater probability of thunderstorms will develop late tonight into Friday morning over southeast TX and much of the TX Coast. Here, more robust theta-e advection will develop atop the cool boundary layer, and as 850-mb winds increase to 40 kt out of the south. Despite strong shear, little to no severe threat is forecast, due to only weak elevated instability, and cool surface air over land. ..Jewell.. 01/05/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 4 22:34:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 4 22:34:01 UTC 2024.

The Great Marsh, one of Fontenelle Forest’s most popular areas, was completely dry, although it usually holds one to two feet of water. There has been less runoff from the hills, and beavers also influence streamflow to the marsh, which is located in the floodplain. KETV Newswatch 7 (Omaha, Neb.), Jan 3, 2024

Some retention ponds have gone dry from Sarasota County to North Tampa as drought persisted. WTSP 10 Tampa Bay (Fla.), Jan 3, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Enhanced flow across the southern US will bring localized windy/dry conditions D3 - Saturday and D4 - Sunday. Potential for widespread rainfall across already moist fuels on D2 Friday will further limit the potential for fire spread. A potent surface low is expected to develop across the southern Plains on D5 - Monday tracking eastward before moving into the Upper Ohio River Valley by D7 - Wednesday. This will bring the potential for very strong surface winds but also additional precipitation chances. The driest conditions are expected to be across portions of southwestern and far western Texas on D5 - Monday through D7 - Wednesday, where less precipitation is likely with multiple periods of windy/dry conditions. Locally Elevated conditions may be possible, particularly across far western Texas south into the Rio Grande Valley. Given the seasonably moist conditions of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation keeping the threat localized, confidence remains too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Enhanced flow across the southern US will bring localized windy/dry conditions D3 - Saturday and D4 - Sunday. Potential for widespread rainfall across already moist fuels on D2 Friday will further limit the potential for fire spread. A potent surface low is expected to develop across the southern Plains on D5 - Monday tracking eastward before moving into the Upper Ohio River Valley by D7 - Wednesday. This will bring the potential for very strong surface winds but also additional precipitation chances. The driest conditions are expected to be across portions of southwestern and far western Texas on D5 - Monday through D7 - Wednesday, where less precipitation is likely with multiple periods of windy/dry conditions. Locally Elevated conditions may be possible, particularly across far western Texas south into the Rio Grande Valley. Given the seasonably moist conditions of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation keeping the threat localized, confidence remains too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Enhanced flow across the southern US will bring localized windy/dry conditions D3 - Saturday and D4 - Sunday. Potential for widespread rainfall across already moist fuels on D2 Friday will further limit the potential for fire spread. A potent surface low is expected to develop across the southern Plains on D5 - Monday tracking eastward before moving into the Upper Ohio River Valley by D7 - Wednesday. This will bring the potential for very strong surface winds but also additional precipitation chances. The driest conditions are expected to be across portions of southwestern and far western Texas on D5 - Monday through D7 - Wednesday, where less precipitation is likely with multiple periods of windy/dry conditions. Locally Elevated conditions may be possible, particularly across far western Texas south into the Rio Grande Valley. Given the seasonably moist conditions of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation keeping the threat localized, confidence remains too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Glen Iris Inn fountain was temporarily shut off on Dec. 29 to preserve water levels at Trout Pond. The pond at Letchworth State Park feeds the fountain, but the level of Trout Pond was diminished by drought. Ponds and streams in the region were noticeably low. Thirty miles to the north in Bethany, wells were running dry. Batavia Daily News (N.Y.), Jan 4, 2024

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Discussion... Very little change appears necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time, based on current meteorological evolution. The most substantial change has been to remove the small thunder area over the Florida Keys, as any risk for lightning appears to have moved southward. Occasional/embedded lightning is expected to evolve across parts of New Mexico and eastward across portions of Texas, within the envelope of convection occurring near and downstream of the upper system crossing the Four Corners states. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Discussion... Very little change appears necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time, based on current meteorological evolution. The most substantial change has been to remove the small thunder area over the Florida Keys, as any risk for lightning appears to have moved southward. Occasional/embedded lightning is expected to evolve across parts of New Mexico and eastward across portions of Texas, within the envelope of convection occurring near and downstream of the upper system crossing the Four Corners states. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. Read more