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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track with adjustments made based on trends in latest guidance. Localized elevated conditions remain possible Friday afternoon - mainly for wind prone locations in the vicinity of terrain features. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible on Friday afternoon across portions of West TX. Elsewhere, a progressive weather pattern and associated widespread precipitation -- along with a trailing cold front and milder conditions -- will temper any fire-weather threat. ...West TX... In the wake of an ejecting, mid-level trough, modest west-northwesterly flow is forecast over eastern NM and West TX. This will lead to dry, downsloping flow and deepening, well-mixed boundary layers across West TX. Critical-level relative humidities (10-15 percent) are possible across the region by mid-afternoon. Given a lack of more robust cyclone development, surface wind speeds are expected to be more tempered around 10-15 mph. Parts of the region also recently experienced some wetting precipitation, but this was relatively limited (around 0.1 inches) and localized in nature. Given forecast ERCs in the 70-80th percentiles and generally persistent dry and windy conditions, Elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible in the delineated area Friday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track with adjustments made based on trends in latest guidance. Localized elevated conditions remain possible Friday afternoon - mainly for wind prone locations in the vicinity of terrain features. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible on Friday afternoon across portions of West TX. Elsewhere, a progressive weather pattern and associated widespread precipitation -- along with a trailing cold front and milder conditions -- will temper any fire-weather threat. ...West TX... In the wake of an ejecting, mid-level trough, modest west-northwesterly flow is forecast over eastern NM and West TX. This will lead to dry, downsloping flow and deepening, well-mixed boundary layers across West TX. Critical-level relative humidities (10-15 percent) are possible across the region by mid-afternoon. Given a lack of more robust cyclone development, surface wind speeds are expected to be more tempered around 10-15 mph. Parts of the region also recently experienced some wetting precipitation, but this was relatively limited (around 0.1 inches) and localized in nature. Given forecast ERCs in the 70-80th percentiles and generally persistent dry and windy conditions, Elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible in the delineated area Friday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track with adjustments made based on trends in latest guidance. Localized elevated conditions remain possible Friday afternoon - mainly for wind prone locations in the vicinity of terrain features. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible on Friday afternoon across portions of West TX. Elsewhere, a progressive weather pattern and associated widespread precipitation -- along with a trailing cold front and milder conditions -- will temper any fire-weather threat. ...West TX... In the wake of an ejecting, mid-level trough, modest west-northwesterly flow is forecast over eastern NM and West TX. This will lead to dry, downsloping flow and deepening, well-mixed boundary layers across West TX. Critical-level relative humidities (10-15 percent) are possible across the region by mid-afternoon. Given a lack of more robust cyclone development, surface wind speeds are expected to be more tempered around 10-15 mph. Parts of the region also recently experienced some wetting precipitation, but this was relatively limited (around 0.1 inches) and localized in nature. Given forecast ERCs in the 70-80th percentiles and generally persistent dry and windy conditions, Elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible in the delineated area Friday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track with adjustments made based on trends in latest guidance. Localized elevated conditions remain possible Friday afternoon - mainly for wind prone locations in the vicinity of terrain features. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible on Friday afternoon across portions of West TX. Elsewhere, a progressive weather pattern and associated widespread precipitation -- along with a trailing cold front and milder conditions -- will temper any fire-weather threat. ...West TX... In the wake of an ejecting, mid-level trough, modest west-northwesterly flow is forecast over eastern NM and West TX. This will lead to dry, downsloping flow and deepening, well-mixed boundary layers across West TX. Critical-level relative humidities (10-15 percent) are possible across the region by mid-afternoon. Given a lack of more robust cyclone development, surface wind speeds are expected to be more tempered around 10-15 mph. Parts of the region also recently experienced some wetting precipitation, but this was relatively limited (around 0.1 inches) and localized in nature. Given forecast ERCs in the 70-80th percentiles and generally persistent dry and windy conditions, Elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible in the delineated area Friday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of strong thunderstorms may impact portions of southern Florida and the Keys Friday into Friday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may impact central and northeastern Gulf coastal areas into Friday night. ...Southeast States... An upper trough within southern stream flow located over eastern OK/TX Friday morning will migrate east across the Southeast U.S. through early Saturday morning. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with the subtropical jet will mostly remain over the Gulf, though some stronger flow will impinge on the central Gulf Coast while also overspreading FL. 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow within the warm conveyor ahead of the trough will support ongoing clusters of storms early in the period and through much of the evening across portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a weak low will shift east near the central Gulf Coast through the day before lifting northeast into GA overnight. This will maintain a cool/dry airmass inland from the coast, especially across MS/AL, with some modest moisture return ahead of the low across the FL Peninsula into GA. While CAMs guidance varies in location and timing of convective features, the overall consensus is that one cluster of storms over the western Gulf will likely affect south FL and the Keys during the morning into early afternoon. Meanwhile another cluster will likely traverse east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast during the morning and afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms associated with an eastward-advancing cold front may then move across northern FL/southern GA after 06z while continued convection associated with warm advection impacts the coastal Carolinas during the nighttime hours. How much destabilization can occur ahead of any of the aforementioned clusters of convection remains uncertain given limited diurnal heating, and generally modest mid and low-level lapse rates. Where/if stronger destabilization occurs, vertical shear characterized by 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt will support organized cells. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though small hail or a brief spin-up also may be possible very near the coast. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of strong thunderstorms may impact portions of southern Florida and the Keys Friday into Friday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may impact central and northeastern Gulf coastal areas into Friday night. ...Southeast States... An upper trough within southern stream flow located over eastern OK/TX Friday morning will migrate east across the Southeast U.S. through early Saturday morning. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with the subtropical jet will mostly remain over the Gulf, though some stronger flow will impinge on the central Gulf Coast while also overspreading FL. 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow within the warm conveyor ahead of the trough will support ongoing clusters of storms early in the period and through much of the evening across portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a weak low will shift east near the central Gulf Coast through the day before lifting northeast into GA overnight. This will maintain a cool/dry airmass inland from the coast, especially across MS/AL, with some modest moisture return ahead of the low across the FL Peninsula into GA. While CAMs guidance varies in location and timing of convective features, the overall consensus is that one cluster of storms over the western Gulf will likely affect south FL and the Keys during the morning into early afternoon. Meanwhile another cluster will likely traverse east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast during the morning and afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms associated with an eastward-advancing cold front may then move across northern FL/southern GA after 06z while continued convection associated with warm advection impacts the coastal Carolinas during the nighttime hours. How much destabilization can occur ahead of any of the aforementioned clusters of convection remains uncertain given limited diurnal heating, and generally modest mid and low-level lapse rates. Where/if stronger destabilization occurs, vertical shear characterized by 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt will support organized cells. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though small hail or a brief spin-up also may be possible very near the coast. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of strong thunderstorms may impact portions of southern Florida and the Keys Friday into Friday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may impact central and northeastern Gulf coastal areas into Friday night. ...Southeast States... An upper trough within southern stream flow located over eastern OK/TX Friday morning will migrate east across the Southeast U.S. through early Saturday morning. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with the subtropical jet will mostly remain over the Gulf, though some stronger flow will impinge on the central Gulf Coast while also overspreading FL. 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow within the warm conveyor ahead of the trough will support ongoing clusters of storms early in the period and through much of the evening across portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a weak low will shift east near the central Gulf Coast through the day before lifting northeast into GA overnight. This will maintain a cool/dry airmass inland from the coast, especially across MS/AL, with some modest moisture return ahead of the low across the FL Peninsula into GA. While CAMs guidance varies in location and timing of convective features, the overall consensus is that one cluster of storms over the western Gulf will likely affect south FL and the Keys during the morning into early afternoon. Meanwhile another cluster will likely traverse east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast during the morning and afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms associated with an eastward-advancing cold front may then move across northern FL/southern GA after 06z while continued convection associated with warm advection impacts the coastal Carolinas during the nighttime hours. How much destabilization can occur ahead of any of the aforementioned clusters of convection remains uncertain given limited diurnal heating, and generally modest mid and low-level lapse rates. Where/if stronger destabilization occurs, vertical shear characterized by 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt will support organized cells. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though small hail or a brief spin-up also may be possible very near the coast. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of strong thunderstorms may impact portions of southern Florida and the Keys Friday into Friday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may impact central and northeastern Gulf coastal areas into Friday night. ...Southeast States... An upper trough within southern stream flow located over eastern OK/TX Friday morning will migrate east across the Southeast U.S. through early Saturday morning. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with the subtropical jet will mostly remain over the Gulf, though some stronger flow will impinge on the central Gulf Coast while also overspreading FL. 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow within the warm conveyor ahead of the trough will support ongoing clusters of storms early in the period and through much of the evening across portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a weak low will shift east near the central Gulf Coast through the day before lifting northeast into GA overnight. This will maintain a cool/dry airmass inland from the coast, especially across MS/AL, with some modest moisture return ahead of the low across the FL Peninsula into GA. While CAMs guidance varies in location and timing of convective features, the overall consensus is that one cluster of storms over the western Gulf will likely affect south FL and the Keys during the morning into early afternoon. Meanwhile another cluster will likely traverse east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast during the morning and afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms associated with an eastward-advancing cold front may then move across northern FL/southern GA after 06z while continued convection associated with warm advection impacts the coastal Carolinas during the nighttime hours. How much destabilization can occur ahead of any of the aforementioned clusters of convection remains uncertain given limited diurnal heating, and generally modest mid and low-level lapse rates. Where/if stronger destabilization occurs, vertical shear characterized by 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt will support organized cells. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though small hail or a brief spin-up also may be possible very near the coast. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of strong thunderstorms may impact portions of southern Florida and the Keys Friday into Friday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may impact central and northeastern Gulf coastal areas into Friday night. ...Southeast States... An upper trough within southern stream flow located over eastern OK/TX Friday morning will migrate east across the Southeast U.S. through early Saturday morning. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with the subtropical jet will mostly remain over the Gulf, though some stronger flow will impinge on the central Gulf Coast while also overspreading FL. 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow within the warm conveyor ahead of the trough will support ongoing clusters of storms early in the period and through much of the evening across portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a weak low will shift east near the central Gulf Coast through the day before lifting northeast into GA overnight. This will maintain a cool/dry airmass inland from the coast, especially across MS/AL, with some modest moisture return ahead of the low across the FL Peninsula into GA. While CAMs guidance varies in location and timing of convective features, the overall consensus is that one cluster of storms over the western Gulf will likely affect south FL and the Keys during the morning into early afternoon. Meanwhile another cluster will likely traverse east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast during the morning and afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms associated with an eastward-advancing cold front may then move across northern FL/southern GA after 06z while continued convection associated with warm advection impacts the coastal Carolinas during the nighttime hours. How much destabilization can occur ahead of any of the aforementioned clusters of convection remains uncertain given limited diurnal heating, and generally modest mid and low-level lapse rates. Where/if stronger destabilization occurs, vertical shear characterized by 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt will support organized cells. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though small hail or a brief spin-up also may be possible very near the coast. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of strong thunderstorms may impact portions of southern Florida and the Keys Friday into Friday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may impact central and northeastern Gulf coastal areas into Friday night. ...Southeast States... An upper trough within southern stream flow located over eastern OK/TX Friday morning will migrate east across the Southeast U.S. through early Saturday morning. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with the subtropical jet will mostly remain over the Gulf, though some stronger flow will impinge on the central Gulf Coast while also overspreading FL. 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow within the warm conveyor ahead of the trough will support ongoing clusters of storms early in the period and through much of the evening across portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a weak low will shift east near the central Gulf Coast through the day before lifting northeast into GA overnight. This will maintain a cool/dry airmass inland from the coast, especially across MS/AL, with some modest moisture return ahead of the low across the FL Peninsula into GA. While CAMs guidance varies in location and timing of convective features, the overall consensus is that one cluster of storms over the western Gulf will likely affect south FL and the Keys during the morning into early afternoon. Meanwhile another cluster will likely traverse east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast during the morning and afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms associated with an eastward-advancing cold front may then move across northern FL/southern GA after 06z while continued convection associated with warm advection impacts the coastal Carolinas during the nighttime hours. How much destabilization can occur ahead of any of the aforementioned clusters of convection remains uncertain given limited diurnal heating, and generally modest mid and low-level lapse rates. Where/if stronger destabilization occurs, vertical shear characterized by 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt will support organized cells. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though small hail or a brief spin-up also may be possible very near the coast. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of strong thunderstorms may impact portions of southern Florida and the Keys Friday into Friday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may impact central and northeastern Gulf coastal areas into Friday night. ...Southeast States... An upper trough within southern stream flow located over eastern OK/TX Friday morning will migrate east across the Southeast U.S. through early Saturday morning. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with the subtropical jet will mostly remain over the Gulf, though some stronger flow will impinge on the central Gulf Coast while also overspreading FL. 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow within the warm conveyor ahead of the trough will support ongoing clusters of storms early in the period and through much of the evening across portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a weak low will shift east near the central Gulf Coast through the day before lifting northeast into GA overnight. This will maintain a cool/dry airmass inland from the coast, especially across MS/AL, with some modest moisture return ahead of the low across the FL Peninsula into GA. While CAMs guidance varies in location and timing of convective features, the overall consensus is that one cluster of storms over the western Gulf will likely affect south FL and the Keys during the morning into early afternoon. Meanwhile another cluster will likely traverse east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast during the morning and afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms associated with an eastward-advancing cold front may then move across northern FL/southern GA after 06z while continued convection associated with warm advection impacts the coastal Carolinas during the nighttime hours. How much destabilization can occur ahead of any of the aforementioned clusters of convection remains uncertain given limited diurnal heating, and generally modest mid and low-level lapse rates. Where/if stronger destabilization occurs, vertical shear characterized by 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt will support organized cells. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though small hail or a brief spin-up also may be possible very near the coast. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and a few gusts to severe levels, are possible across parts of northern and central Texas this afternoon/evening. ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and a few gusts to severe levels, are possible across parts of northern and central Texas this afternoon/evening. ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and a few gusts to severe levels, are possible across parts of northern and central Texas this afternoon/evening. ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and a few gusts to severe levels, are possible across parts of northern and central Texas this afternoon/evening. ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and a few gusts to severe levels, are possible across parts of northern and central Texas this afternoon/evening. ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and a few gusts to severe levels, are possible across parts of northern and central Texas this afternoon/evening. ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and a few gusts to severe levels, are possible across parts of northern and central Texas this afternoon/evening. ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required. Consideration for an Elevated risk area was given to portions of New England where patchy elevated fire weather conditions are currently ongoing within a post-frontal offshore flow regime. RH values currently between 30-40% are expected to fall into the 25-35% range by late afternoon with wind speeds remaining near 15 mph for most locations. The fire weather threat should be greatest across NJ where local fuel reports indicate fuels are receptive; however, precipitation over the past 24-48 hours further north along the New England coast should limit fuel readiness. Consequently, the limited spatial extent of the threat precludes additional highlights. See the previous discussion below for additional details regarding other fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required. Consideration for an Elevated risk area was given to portions of New England where patchy elevated fire weather conditions are currently ongoing within a post-frontal offshore flow regime. RH values currently between 30-40% are expected to fall into the 25-35% range by late afternoon with wind speeds remaining near 15 mph for most locations. The fire weather threat should be greatest across NJ where local fuel reports indicate fuels are receptive; however, precipitation over the past 24-48 hours further north along the New England coast should limit fuel readiness. Consequently, the limited spatial extent of the threat precludes additional highlights. See the previous discussion below for additional details regarding other fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more