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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms are expected this evening from central and east Texas into southwest Louisiana. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. ...Central and East Texas/Southwest Louisiana... The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper-level trough over west-central Texas, with a relatively large area of large-scale ascent located from near the trough eastward across much of the Southern Plains. This is supporting scattered thunderstorm development across much of Texas and in parts of southern Oklahoma. Weak instability is present across much of central and east Texas, where the RAP has MLCAPE generally near or below 1000 J/kg. This, combined with cold temperatures aloft and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger storms this evening. Line segments that become somewhat organized may also have wind-damage potential. As the storms move further east this evening, a marginal severe threat may develop across parts of east Texas and southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms are expected this evening from central and east Texas into southwest Louisiana. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. ...Central and East Texas/Southwest Louisiana... The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper-level trough over west-central Texas, with a relatively large area of large-scale ascent located from near the trough eastward across much of the Southern Plains. This is supporting scattered thunderstorm development across much of Texas and in parts of southern Oklahoma. Weak instability is present across much of central and east Texas, where the RAP has MLCAPE generally near or below 1000 J/kg. This, combined with cold temperatures aloft and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger storms this evening. Line segments that become somewhat organized may also have wind-damage potential. As the storms move further east this evening, a marginal severe threat may develop across parts of east Texas and southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms are expected this evening from central and east Texas into southwest Louisiana. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. ...Central and East Texas/Southwest Louisiana... The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper-level trough over west-central Texas, with a relatively large area of large-scale ascent located from near the trough eastward across much of the Southern Plains. This is supporting scattered thunderstorm development across much of Texas and in parts of southern Oklahoma. Weak instability is present across much of central and east Texas, where the RAP has MLCAPE generally near or below 1000 J/kg. This, combined with cold temperatures aloft and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger storms this evening. Line segments that become somewhat organized may also have wind-damage potential. As the storms move further east this evening, a marginal severe threat may develop across parts of east Texas and southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms are expected this evening from central and east Texas into southwest Louisiana. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. ...Central and East Texas/Southwest Louisiana... The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper-level trough over west-central Texas, with a relatively large area of large-scale ascent located from near the trough eastward across much of the Southern Plains. This is supporting scattered thunderstorm development across much of Texas and in parts of southern Oklahoma. Weak instability is present across much of central and east Texas, where the RAP has MLCAPE generally near or below 1000 J/kg. This, combined with cold temperatures aloft and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger storms this evening. Line segments that become somewhat organized may also have wind-damage potential. As the storms move further east this evening, a marginal severe threat may develop across parts of east Texas and southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms are expected this evening from central and east Texas into southwest Louisiana. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. ...Central and East Texas/Southwest Louisiana... The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper-level trough over west-central Texas, with a relatively large area of large-scale ascent located from near the trough eastward across much of the Southern Plains. This is supporting scattered thunderstorm development across much of Texas and in parts of southern Oklahoma. Weak instability is present across much of central and east Texas, where the RAP has MLCAPE generally near or below 1000 J/kg. This, combined with cold temperatures aloft and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger storms this evening. Line segments that become somewhat organized may also have wind-damage potential. As the storms move further east this evening, a marginal severe threat may develop across parts of east Texas and southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 21 23:51:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 21 23:51:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0276 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Areas affected...Parts of north and central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211854Z - 212130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development is expected over the next couple hours. Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are the primary concerns. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening in the vicinity of a mesoscale low over northwest TX, where steep low-level lapse rates are impinging on middle/upper 50s surface dewpoints. Isolated convective initiation is underway in this area of focused mesoscale ascent. Farther south, cumulus is more shallow along the dryline (owing to weak low-level convergence), though deepening cumulus is developing west of the dryline in a well-mixed/destabilizing boundary layer. Aided by gradually strengthening DCVA preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing west TX, initial thunderstorms will develop/intensify along/south of the mesoscale low, where low-level convergence is maximized. Around 35 kt of effective shear (characterized by a mostly straight hodograph) will support initially discrete cells, with an isolated hail risk (potentially up to 1.5 inches with the stronger storms) and locally strong/severe gusts. Farther south, thunderstorms should evolve out of the steep low-level lapse rate plume, with a similar risk of isolated hail and slightly greater severe-wind risk, given the steeper low-level lapse rates and stronger deep-layer shear. With time, these storms should increase in coverage and spread eastward, as the large-scale ascent continues to overspread the region. This will promote localized upscale growth into several loosely organized clusters, though the strongest deep-layer shear may be displaced to the south of this activity -- potentially limiting convective organization and favoring outflow dominant storms. Nevertheless, strong to severe gusts (generally 50-60 mph) will become the main concern, though isolated large hail will remain possible with the more discrete activity. Current thinking is that the severe hail/wind risk may remain too isolated/marginal for a watch, though convective trends will be monitored through the afternoon. ..Weinman/Goss.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 29909915 29939967 30149991 30600021 31770040 32650038 33380016 33839983 34029939 34089897 34029836 33799780 33399747 32239759 30449798 29959857 29909915 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce a few instances of hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and locally strong gusts across parts of northern and central Texas this through this evening. Additional strong storms overnight may produce locally strong gusts and small hail across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust the 10 percent general thunderstorm probabilities based on latest trends and short term guidance. Severe probabilities are unchanged across TX into southwest LA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through late afternoon and into this evening, posing a risk for a few instances of large hail and strong gusts. For more information on short term severe potential reference MCD 0267. While one or more bowing clusters is expected to develop southeast toward southeast TX/southwest LA, convection is expected to remain elevated given a poor low-level thermodynamic environment and increasing boundary-layer inhibition during the nighttime hours. This should limit a greater damaging wind risk overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce a few instances of hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and locally strong gusts across parts of northern and central Texas this through this evening. Additional strong storms overnight may produce locally strong gusts and small hail across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust the 10 percent general thunderstorm probabilities based on latest trends and short term guidance. Severe probabilities are unchanged across TX into southwest LA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through late afternoon and into this evening, posing a risk for a few instances of large hail and strong gusts. For more information on short term severe potential reference MCD 0267. While one or more bowing clusters is expected to develop southeast toward southeast TX/southwest LA, convection is expected to remain elevated given a poor low-level thermodynamic environment and increasing boundary-layer inhibition during the nighttime hours. This should limit a greater damaging wind risk overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce a few instances of hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and locally strong gusts across parts of northern and central Texas this through this evening. Additional strong storms overnight may produce locally strong gusts and small hail across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust the 10 percent general thunderstorm probabilities based on latest trends and short term guidance. Severe probabilities are unchanged across TX into southwest LA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through late afternoon and into this evening, posing a risk for a few instances of large hail and strong gusts. For more information on short term severe potential reference MCD 0267. While one or more bowing clusters is expected to develop southeast toward southeast TX/southwest LA, convection is expected to remain elevated given a poor low-level thermodynamic environment and increasing boundary-layer inhibition during the nighttime hours. This should limit a greater damaging wind risk overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce a few instances of hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and locally strong gusts across parts of northern and central Texas this through this evening. Additional strong storms overnight may produce locally strong gusts and small hail across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust the 10 percent general thunderstorm probabilities based on latest trends and short term guidance. Severe probabilities are unchanged across TX into southwest LA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through late afternoon and into this evening, posing a risk for a few instances of large hail and strong gusts. For more information on short term severe potential reference MCD 0267. While one or more bowing clusters is expected to develop southeast toward southeast TX/southwest LA, convection is expected to remain elevated given a poor low-level thermodynamic environment and increasing boundary-layer inhibition during the nighttime hours. This should limit a greater damaging wind risk overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce a few instances of hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and locally strong gusts across parts of northern and central Texas this through this evening. Additional strong storms overnight may produce locally strong gusts and small hail across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust the 10 percent general thunderstorm probabilities based on latest trends and short term guidance. Severe probabilities are unchanged across TX into southwest LA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through late afternoon and into this evening, posing a risk for a few instances of large hail and strong gusts. For more information on short term severe potential reference MCD 0267. While one or more bowing clusters is expected to develop southeast toward southeast TX/southwest LA, convection is expected to remain elevated given a poor low-level thermodynamic environment and increasing boundary-layer inhibition during the nighttime hours. This should limit a greater damaging wind risk overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track with adjustments made based on trends in latest guidance. Localized elevated conditions remain possible Friday afternoon - mainly for wind prone locations in the vicinity of terrain features. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible on Friday afternoon across portions of West TX. Elsewhere, a progressive weather pattern and associated widespread precipitation -- along with a trailing cold front and milder conditions -- will temper any fire-weather threat. ...West TX... In the wake of an ejecting, mid-level trough, modest west-northwesterly flow is forecast over eastern NM and West TX. This will lead to dry, downsloping flow and deepening, well-mixed boundary layers across West TX. Critical-level relative humidities (10-15 percent) are possible across the region by mid-afternoon. Given a lack of more robust cyclone development, surface wind speeds are expected to be more tempered around 10-15 mph. Parts of the region also recently experienced some wetting precipitation, but this was relatively limited (around 0.1 inches) and localized in nature. Given forecast ERCs in the 70-80th percentiles and generally persistent dry and windy conditions, Elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible in the delineated area Friday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more