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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ...Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ...Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ...Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ...Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ...Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more