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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, significant mid-level troughing digging into the Southwest by early Monday is forecast to continue generally digging across and east of the southern Rockies Monday through Monday night. As it does, models indicate that it will come increasingly in phase with a perturbation within a branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, before pivoting across the lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic Tuesday into early Wednesday. Associated forcing for ascent is forecast to support the evolution of a broad and deep cyclone, with an initial surface low consolidating within deepening surface troughing across the Texas Panhandle by Monday morning, before gradually migrating eastward near/north of the Red River through the day Monday. The most rapid deepening, however, may not commence until Monday night, centered across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South, before proceeding northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a prior intrusion of cold/dry air, boundary-layer recovery across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico may be slow to contribute to destabilization inland of coastal areas. Additionally, there has been a signal in model output that considerable warm advection driven convection near or offshore of north central Gulf coastal areas may further impede, or at least slow, inland moisture return. However, in response to the more rapid deepening of the surface cyclone, it appears that an increasingly moist warm sector boundary-layer will spread inland across the Gulf Coast, near/east of the Mississippi River by late Monday night, before surging east-northeastward through portions of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coast states on Tuesday. Coincident with intensifying deep-layer wind fields and shear, including potentially large clockwise curved low-level hodographs, the environment may become conducive to considerable organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, with potential to produce damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. Thereafter, mid-level ridging within the persistent split flow across the eastern Pacific may undergo considerable further amplification by late next week, with deepening downstream large-scale troughing evolving inland of the Pacific coast. This may be preceded by another short wave trough emerging from the Southwest, which might support renewed cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, more uncertainty lingers concerning these developments, and destabilization in the wake of the early week cyclone. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, significant mid-level troughing digging into the Southwest by early Monday is forecast to continue generally digging across and east of the southern Rockies Monday through Monday night. As it does, models indicate that it will come increasingly in phase with a perturbation within a branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, before pivoting across the lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic Tuesday into early Wednesday. Associated forcing for ascent is forecast to support the evolution of a broad and deep cyclone, with an initial surface low consolidating within deepening surface troughing across the Texas Panhandle by Monday morning, before gradually migrating eastward near/north of the Red River through the day Monday. The most rapid deepening, however, may not commence until Monday night, centered across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South, before proceeding northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a prior intrusion of cold/dry air, boundary-layer recovery across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico may be slow to contribute to destabilization inland of coastal areas. Additionally, there has been a signal in model output that considerable warm advection driven convection near or offshore of north central Gulf coastal areas may further impede, or at least slow, inland moisture return. However, in response to the more rapid deepening of the surface cyclone, it appears that an increasingly moist warm sector boundary-layer will spread inland across the Gulf Coast, near/east of the Mississippi River by late Monday night, before surging east-northeastward through portions of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coast states on Tuesday. Coincident with intensifying deep-layer wind fields and shear, including potentially large clockwise curved low-level hodographs, the environment may become conducive to considerable organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, with potential to produce damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. Thereafter, mid-level ridging within the persistent split flow across the eastern Pacific may undergo considerable further amplification by late next week, with deepening downstream large-scale troughing evolving inland of the Pacific coast. This may be preceded by another short wave trough emerging from the Southwest, which might support renewed cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, more uncertainty lingers concerning these developments, and destabilization in the wake of the early week cyclone. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, significant mid-level troughing digging into the Southwest by early Monday is forecast to continue generally digging across and east of the southern Rockies Monday through Monday night. As it does, models indicate that it will come increasingly in phase with a perturbation within a branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, before pivoting across the lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic Tuesday into early Wednesday. Associated forcing for ascent is forecast to support the evolution of a broad and deep cyclone, with an initial surface low consolidating within deepening surface troughing across the Texas Panhandle by Monday morning, before gradually migrating eastward near/north of the Red River through the day Monday. The most rapid deepening, however, may not commence until Monday night, centered across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South, before proceeding northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a prior intrusion of cold/dry air, boundary-layer recovery across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico may be slow to contribute to destabilization inland of coastal areas. Additionally, there has been a signal in model output that considerable warm advection driven convection near or offshore of north central Gulf coastal areas may further impede, or at least slow, inland moisture return. However, in response to the more rapid deepening of the surface cyclone, it appears that an increasingly moist warm sector boundary-layer will spread inland across the Gulf Coast, near/east of the Mississippi River by late Monday night, before surging east-northeastward through portions of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coast states on Tuesday. Coincident with intensifying deep-layer wind fields and shear, including potentially large clockwise curved low-level hodographs, the environment may become conducive to considerable organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, with potential to produce damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. Thereafter, mid-level ridging within the persistent split flow across the eastern Pacific may undergo considerable further amplification by late next week, with deepening downstream large-scale troughing evolving inland of the Pacific coast. This may be preceded by another short wave trough emerging from the Southwest, which might support renewed cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, more uncertainty lingers concerning these developments, and destabilization in the wake of the early week cyclone. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Active mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS into D2/Saturday as the eastern US shortwave trough continues to approaches the Atlantic Coast. The accompanying surface low is forecast to intensify through the forecast period, bringing widespread precipitation the Mid Atlantic and Northeast States. At the same time, a second trough will approach the Pacific coast as mid-level flow intensifies over the southern third of the CONUS. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool air mass resides over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of dry fuels. Fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Active mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS into D2/Saturday as the eastern US shortwave trough continues to approaches the Atlantic Coast. The accompanying surface low is forecast to intensify through the forecast period, bringing widespread precipitation the Mid Atlantic and Northeast States. At the same time, a second trough will approach the Pacific coast as mid-level flow intensifies over the southern third of the CONUS. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool air mass resides over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of dry fuels. Fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Active mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS into D2/Saturday as the eastern US shortwave trough continues to approaches the Atlantic Coast. The accompanying surface low is forecast to intensify through the forecast period, bringing widespread precipitation the Mid Atlantic and Northeast States. At the same time, a second trough will approach the Pacific coast as mid-level flow intensifies over the southern third of the CONUS. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool air mass resides over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of dry fuels. Fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models are similar concerning the depiction of the evolving large-scale flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America through this period. A significant amplification within this regime appears likely to continue an eastward translation, inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. While another vigorous short wave impulse may contribute to suppression of the northwestern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging slowly shifting into the Pacific coast, a series of short wave troughs digging inland of the coast, as far south as the Southwestern international border area, are forecast to contribute to the evolution of a large mid-level trough across the southern Great Basin into Great Plains. It appears that this trough may gradually begin to come in phase with troughing in a branch of westerlies emanating from the eastern subtropical Pacific, and a low may consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies (across the Texas Panhandle vicinity), by daybreak Monday. In the wake of a surface cyclone, associated with less amplified downstream mid-level troughing accelerating off the Atlantic Seaboard, the boundary layer over much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will be in the process of recovery from a prior cold intrusion. However models indicate that, rapid, albeit modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is possible by late Sunday night. This may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization beneath capping elevated mixed-layer air across the lower/middle Texas coast, and weak destabilization above a residual cold/stable surface-based air mass farther inland, as the environment further aloft cools. Coupled with strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, scattered weak thunderstorms may initiate across parts of northwest Texas into south central Kansas, as well as within an evolving lower/mid-tropospheric regime across south central into southeastern Texas, prior to 12Z Monday. Weak boundary-layer destabilization (accompanied by low probabilities for thunderstorms) is also possible across the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys vicinity prior to a frontal passage Sunday afternoon, as well as beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Mogollon Rim vicinity of Arizona during the peak afternoon heating. ..Kerr.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models are similar concerning the depiction of the evolving large-scale flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America through this period. A significant amplification within this regime appears likely to continue an eastward translation, inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. While another vigorous short wave impulse may contribute to suppression of the northwestern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging slowly shifting into the Pacific coast, a series of short wave troughs digging inland of the coast, as far south as the Southwestern international border area, are forecast to contribute to the evolution of a large mid-level trough across the southern Great Basin into Great Plains. It appears that this trough may gradually begin to come in phase with troughing in a branch of westerlies emanating from the eastern subtropical Pacific, and a low may consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies (across the Texas Panhandle vicinity), by daybreak Monday. In the wake of a surface cyclone, associated with less amplified downstream mid-level troughing accelerating off the Atlantic Seaboard, the boundary layer over much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will be in the process of recovery from a prior cold intrusion. However models indicate that, rapid, albeit modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is possible by late Sunday night. This may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization beneath capping elevated mixed-layer air across the lower/middle Texas coast, and weak destabilization above a residual cold/stable surface-based air mass farther inland, as the environment further aloft cools. Coupled with strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, scattered weak thunderstorms may initiate across parts of northwest Texas into south central Kansas, as well as within an evolving lower/mid-tropospheric regime across south central into southeastern Texas, prior to 12Z Monday. Weak boundary-layer destabilization (accompanied by low probabilities for thunderstorms) is also possible across the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys vicinity prior to a frontal passage Sunday afternoon, as well as beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Mogollon Rim vicinity of Arizona during the peak afternoon heating. ..Kerr.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models are similar concerning the depiction of the evolving large-scale flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America through this period. A significant amplification within this regime appears likely to continue an eastward translation, inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. While another vigorous short wave impulse may contribute to suppression of the northwestern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging slowly shifting into the Pacific coast, a series of short wave troughs digging inland of the coast, as far south as the Southwestern international border area, are forecast to contribute to the evolution of a large mid-level trough across the southern Great Basin into Great Plains. It appears that this trough may gradually begin to come in phase with troughing in a branch of westerlies emanating from the eastern subtropical Pacific, and a low may consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies (across the Texas Panhandle vicinity), by daybreak Monday. In the wake of a surface cyclone, associated with less amplified downstream mid-level troughing accelerating off the Atlantic Seaboard, the boundary layer over much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will be in the process of recovery from a prior cold intrusion. However models indicate that, rapid, albeit modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is possible by late Sunday night. This may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization beneath capping elevated mixed-layer air across the lower/middle Texas coast, and weak destabilization above a residual cold/stable surface-based air mass farther inland, as the environment further aloft cools. Coupled with strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, scattered weak thunderstorms may initiate across parts of northwest Texas into south central Kansas, as well as within an evolving lower/mid-tropospheric regime across south central into southeastern Texas, prior to 12Z Monday. Weak boundary-layer destabilization (accompanied by low probabilities for thunderstorms) is also possible across the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys vicinity prior to a frontal passage Sunday afternoon, as well as beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Mogollon Rim vicinity of Arizona during the peak afternoon heating. ..Kerr.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... Within the prevailing split flow over the eastern Pacific, models indicate considerable amplification of mid/upper ridging across the mid-latitudes through early Saturday. This ridging may build further while slowly approaching the North American Pacific coast Saturday through Saturday night As it does, a significant downstream short wave trough is forecast to dig inland of the U.S Pacific coast, while a weaker perturbation to its south slowly pivots across the subtropical eastern Pacific toward southern Baja. Farther downstream, the mid-latitude and subtropical streams will remain largely in phase east of the southern Rockies and Mexican Plateau through the Atlantic Seaboard, around the northern periphery of subtropical ridging centered at mid-levels over the Caribbean. A lead short wave perturbation within this regime is forecast to be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley 12Z Saturday, before becoming increasingly sheared and weakening while continuing northeastward through the remainder of the period. In its wake, a trailing perturbation is generally forecast to accelerate east of the southern Rockies toward the southern Appalachians. Substantive spread remains evident among the various models concerning these developments, and associated surface cyclogenesis across the eastern Gulf/southern Mid Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, the more substantive deepening may not occur until Saturday night, offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. ...South Atlantic Coast... North of the Florida Peninsula, destabilization, coincident with favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, still appears likely to be rooted above saturated thermodynamic profiles with moist adiabatic (or more stable) lapse rates across the Georgia/Carolina coastal plain, or colder/more stable near-surface air farther inland. The development of only rather weak CAPE is forecast, limited by weak lapse rates farther aloft, and severe weather potential currently appears negligible, despite the strong deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. Building mid/upper ridging is generally forecast across much of the Florida Peninsula into and through the period, and relatively warm thermodynamic profiles characterized by weak lapse rates in upper levels may limit the potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. During the day, warming in mid-levels, and the tendency for low-level flow to veer to a westerly component (resulting in weak low-level convergence), may further inhibit the risk for severe thunderstorm development. However, there is spread among the models concerning the timing of these developments, and there may be a window of opportunity for sufficient destabilization over inland areas to maintain thunderstorm activity spreading inland off the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, it probably will coincide with sufficiently strong wind fields and shear for organized convection, including supercells, posing a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... Within the prevailing split flow over the eastern Pacific, models indicate considerable amplification of mid/upper ridging across the mid-latitudes through early Saturday. This ridging may build further while slowly approaching the North American Pacific coast Saturday through Saturday night As it does, a significant downstream short wave trough is forecast to dig inland of the U.S Pacific coast, while a weaker perturbation to its south slowly pivots across the subtropical eastern Pacific toward southern Baja. Farther downstream, the mid-latitude and subtropical streams will remain largely in phase east of the southern Rockies and Mexican Plateau through the Atlantic Seaboard, around the northern periphery of subtropical ridging centered at mid-levels over the Caribbean. A lead short wave perturbation within this regime is forecast to be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley 12Z Saturday, before becoming increasingly sheared and weakening while continuing northeastward through the remainder of the period. In its wake, a trailing perturbation is generally forecast to accelerate east of the southern Rockies toward the southern Appalachians. Substantive spread remains evident among the various models concerning these developments, and associated surface cyclogenesis across the eastern Gulf/southern Mid Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, the more substantive deepening may not occur until Saturday night, offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. ...South Atlantic Coast... North of the Florida Peninsula, destabilization, coincident with favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, still appears likely to be rooted above saturated thermodynamic profiles with moist adiabatic (or more stable) lapse rates across the Georgia/Carolina coastal plain, or colder/more stable near-surface air farther inland. The development of only rather weak CAPE is forecast, limited by weak lapse rates farther aloft, and severe weather potential currently appears negligible, despite the strong deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. Building mid/upper ridging is generally forecast across much of the Florida Peninsula into and through the period, and relatively warm thermodynamic profiles characterized by weak lapse rates in upper levels may limit the potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. During the day, warming in mid-levels, and the tendency for low-level flow to veer to a westerly component (resulting in weak low-level convergence), may further inhibit the risk for severe thunderstorm development. However, there is spread among the models concerning the timing of these developments, and there may be a window of opportunity for sufficient destabilization over inland areas to maintain thunderstorm activity spreading inland off the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, it probably will coincide with sufficiently strong wind fields and shear for organized convection, including supercells, posing a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... Within the prevailing split flow over the eastern Pacific, models indicate considerable amplification of mid/upper ridging across the mid-latitudes through early Saturday. This ridging may build further while slowly approaching the North American Pacific coast Saturday through Saturday night As it does, a significant downstream short wave trough is forecast to dig inland of the U.S Pacific coast, while a weaker perturbation to its south slowly pivots across the subtropical eastern Pacific toward southern Baja. Farther downstream, the mid-latitude and subtropical streams will remain largely in phase east of the southern Rockies and Mexican Plateau through the Atlantic Seaboard, around the northern periphery of subtropical ridging centered at mid-levels over the Caribbean. A lead short wave perturbation within this regime is forecast to be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley 12Z Saturday, before becoming increasingly sheared and weakening while continuing northeastward through the remainder of the period. In its wake, a trailing perturbation is generally forecast to accelerate east of the southern Rockies toward the southern Appalachians. Substantive spread remains evident among the various models concerning these developments, and associated surface cyclogenesis across the eastern Gulf/southern Mid Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, the more substantive deepening may not occur until Saturday night, offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. ...South Atlantic Coast... North of the Florida Peninsula, destabilization, coincident with favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, still appears likely to be rooted above saturated thermodynamic profiles with moist adiabatic (or more stable) lapse rates across the Georgia/Carolina coastal plain, or colder/more stable near-surface air farther inland. The development of only rather weak CAPE is forecast, limited by weak lapse rates farther aloft, and severe weather potential currently appears negligible, despite the strong deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. Building mid/upper ridging is generally forecast across much of the Florida Peninsula into and through the period, and relatively warm thermodynamic profiles characterized by weak lapse rates in upper levels may limit the potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. During the day, warming in mid-levels, and the tendency for low-level flow to veer to a westerly component (resulting in weak low-level convergence), may further inhibit the risk for severe thunderstorm development. However, there is spread among the models concerning the timing of these developments, and there may be a window of opportunity for sufficient destabilization over inland areas to maintain thunderstorm activity spreading inland off the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, it probably will coincide with sufficiently strong wind fields and shear for organized convection, including supercells, posing a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/05/2024 Read more