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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, significant mid-level troughing digging into the Southwest by early Monday is forecast to continue generally digging across and east of the southern Rockies Monday through Monday night. As it does, models indicate that it will come increasingly in phase with a perturbation within a branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, before pivoting across the lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic Tuesday into early Wednesday. Associated forcing for ascent is forecast to support the evolution of a broad and deep cyclone, with an initial surface low consolidating within deepening surface troughing across the Texas Panhandle by Monday morning, before gradually migrating eastward near/north of the Red River through the day Monday. The most rapid deepening, however, may not commence until Monday night, centered across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South, before proceeding northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a prior intrusion of cold/dry air, boundary-layer recovery across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico may be slow to contribute to destabilization inland of coastal areas. Additionally, there has been a signal in model output that considerable warm advection driven convection near or offshore of north central Gulf coastal areas may further impede, or at least slow, inland moisture return. However, in response to the more rapid deepening of the surface cyclone, it appears that an increasingly moist warm sector boundary-layer will spread inland across the Gulf Coast, near/east of the Mississippi River by late Monday night, before surging east-northeastward through portions of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coast states on Tuesday. Coincident with intensifying deep-layer wind fields and shear, including potentially large clockwise curved low-level hodographs, the environment may become conducive to considerable organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, with potential to produce damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. Thereafter, mid-level ridging within the persistent split flow across the eastern Pacific may undergo considerable further amplification by late next week, with deepening downstream large-scale troughing evolving inland of the Pacific coast. This may be preceded by another short wave trough emerging from the Southwest, which might support renewed cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, more uncertainty lingers concerning these developments, and destabilization in the wake of the early week cyclone. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, significant mid-level troughing digging into the Southwest by early Monday is forecast to continue generally digging across and east of the southern Rockies Monday through Monday night. As it does, models indicate that it will come increasingly in phase with a perturbation within a branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, before pivoting across the lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic Tuesday into early Wednesday. Associated forcing for ascent is forecast to support the evolution of a broad and deep cyclone, with an initial surface low consolidating within deepening surface troughing across the Texas Panhandle by Monday morning, before gradually migrating eastward near/north of the Red River through the day Monday. The most rapid deepening, however, may not commence until Monday night, centered across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South, before proceeding northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a prior intrusion of cold/dry air, boundary-layer recovery across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico may be slow to contribute to destabilization inland of coastal areas. Additionally, there has been a signal in model output that considerable warm advection driven convection near or offshore of north central Gulf coastal areas may further impede, or at least slow, inland moisture return. However, in response to the more rapid deepening of the surface cyclone, it appears that an increasingly moist warm sector boundary-layer will spread inland across the Gulf Coast, near/east of the Mississippi River by late Monday night, before surging east-northeastward through portions of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coast states on Tuesday. Coincident with intensifying deep-layer wind fields and shear, including potentially large clockwise curved low-level hodographs, the environment may become conducive to considerable organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, with potential to produce damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. Thereafter, mid-level ridging within the persistent split flow across the eastern Pacific may undergo considerable further amplification by late next week, with deepening downstream large-scale troughing evolving inland of the Pacific coast. This may be preceded by another short wave trough emerging from the Southwest, which might support renewed cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, more uncertainty lingers concerning these developments, and destabilization in the wake of the early week cyclone. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, significant mid-level troughing digging into the Southwest by early Monday is forecast to continue generally digging across and east of the southern Rockies Monday through Monday night. As it does, models indicate that it will come increasingly in phase with a perturbation within a branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, before pivoting across the lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic Tuesday into early Wednesday. Associated forcing for ascent is forecast to support the evolution of a broad and deep cyclone, with an initial surface low consolidating within deepening surface troughing across the Texas Panhandle by Monday morning, before gradually migrating eastward near/north of the Red River through the day Monday. The most rapid deepening, however, may not commence until Monday night, centered across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South, before proceeding northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a prior intrusion of cold/dry air, boundary-layer recovery across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico may be slow to contribute to destabilization inland of coastal areas. Additionally, there has been a signal in model output that considerable warm advection driven convection near or offshore of north central Gulf coastal areas may further impede, or at least slow, inland moisture return. However, in response to the more rapid deepening of the surface cyclone, it appears that an increasingly moist warm sector boundary-layer will spread inland across the Gulf Coast, near/east of the Mississippi River by late Monday night, before surging east-northeastward through portions of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coast states on Tuesday. Coincident with intensifying deep-layer wind fields and shear, including potentially large clockwise curved low-level hodographs, the environment may become conducive to considerable organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, with potential to produce damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. Thereafter, mid-level ridging within the persistent split flow across the eastern Pacific may undergo considerable further amplification by late next week, with deepening downstream large-scale troughing evolving inland of the Pacific coast. This may be preceded by another short wave trough emerging from the Southwest, which might support renewed cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, more uncertainty lingers concerning these developments, and destabilization in the wake of the early week cyclone. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Active mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS into D2/Saturday as the eastern US shortwave trough continues to approaches the Atlantic Coast. The accompanying surface low is forecast to intensify through the forecast period, bringing widespread precipitation the Mid Atlantic and Northeast States. At the same time, a second trough will approach the Pacific coast as mid-level flow intensifies over the southern third of the CONUS. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool air mass resides over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of dry fuels. Fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Active mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS into D2/Saturday as the eastern US shortwave trough continues to approaches the Atlantic Coast. The accompanying surface low is forecast to intensify through the forecast period, bringing widespread precipitation the Mid Atlantic and Northeast States. At the same time, a second trough will approach the Pacific coast as mid-level flow intensifies over the southern third of the CONUS. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool air mass resides over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of dry fuels. Fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more