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MD 0003 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR WESTERN NC...WESTERN INTO CENTRAL VA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN WV
Mesoscale Discussion 0003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...western NC...western into central VA...far southeastern WV Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 060828Z - 061430Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain is forecast to develop from southwest to northeast through 10am EST. Freezing rain rates will initially be light as the atmospheric column moistens, but rates are forecast to intensify into the 0.05-0.15 inch/3 hour range. A transition from freezing rain to rain is forecast to occur over western NC into southern portions of western VA primarily during the 7-10am EST period. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic as of 325am EST shows an extensive precipitation shield across GA into western SC and moving northeast into the southern Appalachians. This precipitation is in response to a mid-level shortwave trough moving northeast across the lower MS Valley early this morning. This mid-level feature is forecast to move into the southern Appalachians during the morning. Strong low-level warm-air advection and moistening via a warm conveyor belt are acting to enhance large-scale lift and contribute to a moistening atmospheric column during the pre-dawn hours across western NC into western/central VA. The latest ensemble model guidance (i.e., HREF, SREF) show agreement in depicting a swath of precipitation spreading north-northeast with hourly rates generally in the 0.05-0.15 inch range. Forecast soundings indicate thermal profiles supporting freezing rain as the primary precipitation type from western NC northward through much of western VA and adjacent southeastern WV. However, this shallow sub-freezing layer near the surface is forecast to slowly erode across western NC and southern parts of western VA as surface temperatures warm to 32 deg F or higher, primarily during the 7-10am EST period. Farther north, some intermittent mixing of freezing rain and sleet is possible especially on the northern periphery of the discussion area (i.e., northwestern parts of VA). ..Smith.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP... LAT...LON 37327841 36917897 36777954 36628003 36278078 35868160 35548205 35308234 35378265 35428265 35958223 36278170 36808133 37218127 37488119 37808091 38397955 38557864 38467786 38217781 37327841 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that rapid, strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Tuesday. While the associated mid-level trough axis takes on an increasingly negative tilt to the east of the Mississippi Valley, intense wind fields are forecast to overspread much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region, accompanied by a moistening and at least weakly destabilizing warm sector. It appears that this will include 50-80+ kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer, contributing to very large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. Aided by strong large-scale forcing for ascent, the evolution of an extensive squall line with embedded and preceding discrete supercell structures may be ongoing early Tuesday across parts of the eastern Gulf States through northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This seems likely to pose a continuing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, while accelerating northeastward and eastward through much of the remainder of the Southeast by Tuesday evening. Thereafter, short wave developments become more unclear into next weekend. However, following renewed amplification within the persistent split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models suggest that additional strong cyclogenesis is possible across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by late next Thursday night into Friday/Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that rapid, strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Tuesday. While the associated mid-level trough axis takes on an increasingly negative tilt to the east of the Mississippi Valley, intense wind fields are forecast to overspread much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region, accompanied by a moistening and at least weakly destabilizing warm sector. It appears that this will include 50-80+ kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer, contributing to very large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. Aided by strong large-scale forcing for ascent, the evolution of an extensive squall line with embedded and preceding discrete supercell structures may be ongoing early Tuesday across parts of the eastern Gulf States through northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This seems likely to pose a continuing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, while accelerating northeastward and eastward through much of the remainder of the Southeast by Tuesday evening. Thereafter, short wave developments become more unclear into next weekend. However, following renewed amplification within the persistent split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models suggest that additional strong cyclogenesis is possible across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by late next Thursday night into Friday/Saturday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified ridging, within the prevailing split mid/upper flow over the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. At least modest surface cyclogenesis may already by ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by Monday morning. However, there is increasing spread evident within the latest model output concerning subsequent developments across Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity by early Tuesday. A secondary surface low may develop across and north-northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening. It is unclear whether this will merge with the primary cyclone Monday night. But, the evolution of a broad and deep primary surface cyclone still appears likely, late Monday night through Tuesday. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and precipitation across and inland of coastal areas. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation, aided by low-level warm advection, may contribute to considerable thunderstorm activity near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas prior to the inland advance of an unstable warm sector boundary layer. Still, the inland advection of mid 60s+ surface dew points across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas appears probable Monday into Monday evening, and across at least southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. Models continue to suggest that this will be sufficient to support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. ...Gulf Coast vicinity... The extent of the organized severe weather potential across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas Monday afternoon and evening, and the potential for hail in elevated convection farther inland, remain at least somewhat unclear. Much may depend on sub-synoptic forcing, but with inland spread of a destabilizing warm sector, there probably will be at least a window of opportunity for scattered boundary-layer based convection, including supercells, in an environment conditionally conducive to large hail and tornadoes. The most significant severe weather potential still seems likely to await the development of the stronger dynamic forcing for ascent, and related rapid surface cyclone deepening, which may impact parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. Inland boundary-layer destabilization coupled with intensifying wind fields, including south to southwesterly flow of 50-70+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer, could contribute to an environment potentially supportive of strong tornadoes. This may accompany the evolution of both discrete supercells and an organizing line or cluster of storms prior to 12Z Tuesday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified ridging, within the prevailing split mid/upper flow over the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. At least modest surface cyclogenesis may already by ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by Monday morning. However, there is increasing spread evident within the latest model output concerning subsequent developments across Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity by early Tuesday. A secondary surface low may develop across and north-northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening. It is unclear whether this will merge with the primary cyclone Monday night. But, the evolution of a broad and deep primary surface cyclone still appears likely, late Monday night through Tuesday. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and precipitation across and inland of coastal areas. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation, aided by low-level warm advection, may contribute to considerable thunderstorm activity near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas prior to the inland advance of an unstable warm sector boundary layer. Still, the inland advection of mid 60s+ surface dew points across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas appears probable Monday into Monday evening, and across at least southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. Models continue to suggest that this will be sufficient to support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. ...Gulf Coast vicinity... The extent of the organized severe weather potential across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas Monday afternoon and evening, and the potential for hail in elevated convection farther inland, remain at least somewhat unclear. Much may depend on sub-synoptic forcing, but with inland spread of a destabilizing warm sector, there probably will be at least a window of opportunity for scattered boundary-layer based convection, including supercells, in an environment conditionally conducive to large hail and tornadoes. The most significant severe weather potential still seems likely to await the development of the stronger dynamic forcing for ascent, and related rapid surface cyclone deepening, which may impact parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. Inland boundary-layer destabilization coupled with intensifying wind fields, including south to southwesterly flow of 50-70+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer, could contribute to an environment potentially supportive of strong tornadoes. This may accompany the evolution of both discrete supercells and an organizing line or cluster of storms prior to 12Z Tuesday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified ridging, within the prevailing split mid/upper flow over the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. At least modest surface cyclogenesis may already by ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by Monday morning. However, there is increasing spread evident within the latest model output concerning subsequent developments across Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity by early Tuesday. A secondary surface low may develop across and north-northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening. It is unclear whether this will merge with the primary cyclone Monday night. But, the evolution of a broad and deep primary surface cyclone still appears likely, late Monday night through Tuesday. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and precipitation across and inland of coastal areas. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation, aided by low-level warm advection, may contribute to considerable thunderstorm activity near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas prior to the inland advance of an unstable warm sector boundary layer. Still, the inland advection of mid 60s+ surface dew points across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas appears probable Monday into Monday evening, and across at least southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. Models continue to suggest that this will be sufficient to support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. ...Gulf Coast vicinity... The extent of the organized severe weather potential across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas Monday afternoon and evening, and the potential for hail in elevated convection farther inland, remain at least somewhat unclear. Much may depend on sub-synoptic forcing, but with inland spread of a destabilizing warm sector, there probably will be at least a window of opportunity for scattered boundary-layer based convection, including supercells, in an environment conditionally conducive to large hail and tornadoes. The most significant severe weather potential still seems likely to await the development of the stronger dynamic forcing for ascent, and related rapid surface cyclone deepening, which may impact parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. Inland boundary-layer destabilization coupled with intensifying wind fields, including south to southwesterly flow of 50-70+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer, could contribute to an environment potentially supportive of strong tornadoes. This may accompany the evolution of both discrete supercells and an organizing line or cluster of storms prior to 12Z Tuesday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 6 07:58:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Within one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate at least some suppression of initially amplified mid-level ridging approaching the Pacific coast. However, a couple of short wave perturbations digging to its east, through the Southwestern international border vicinity, are forecast to continue to contribute to the evolution of larger-scale mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific coast and as far east as the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. As this occurs, remnant preceding mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley is forecast to progress across the Atlantic Seaboard during the day Sunday. A more rapid offshore acceleration appears likely Sunday night, accompanied by a modest occluded surface cyclone initially developing into areas just offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast by early Sunday. As a trailing cold front advances southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys by Sunday afternoon, generally dry and/or stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An isolated weak thunderstorm or two might still be possible ahead of the front early Sunday near southern Florida coastal areas and in the vicinity of the Keys. Additionally, beneath the cold mid-level air overspreading the southern Great Basin through southern Rockies, scattered convection capable of producing lightning might not entirely be out of the question, mainly near the Mogollon Rim during peak afternoon heating. But, otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears generally negligible across much of the U.S. into Sunday night. By late Sunday night, it still appears that a low will consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, generally across the Texas Panhandle vicinity. Coinciding strengthening of southerly low-level flow probably will include 50+ kt around 850 mb, as far south as the lower Rio Grande Valley/lower Texas coast vicinity. This may support a more rapid, albeit still modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with strengthening forcing for ascent in the exit region of a mid-level jet nosing into the Texas South Plains vicinity, and a separate band of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of south central into southeast Texas, elevated destabilization may become sufficient to initiate scattered weak thunderstorms prior to 12Z Monday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Within one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate at least some suppression of initially amplified mid-level ridging approaching the Pacific coast. However, a couple of short wave perturbations digging to its east, through the Southwestern international border vicinity, are forecast to continue to contribute to the evolution of larger-scale mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific coast and as far east as the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. As this occurs, remnant preceding mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley is forecast to progress across the Atlantic Seaboard during the day Sunday. A more rapid offshore acceleration appears likely Sunday night, accompanied by a modest occluded surface cyclone initially developing into areas just offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast by early Sunday. As a trailing cold front advances southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys by Sunday afternoon, generally dry and/or stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An isolated weak thunderstorm or two might still be possible ahead of the front early Sunday near southern Florida coastal areas and in the vicinity of the Keys. Additionally, beneath the cold mid-level air overspreading the southern Great Basin through southern Rockies, scattered convection capable of producing lightning might not entirely be out of the question, mainly near the Mogollon Rim during peak afternoon heating. But, otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears generally negligible across much of the U.S. into Sunday night. By late Sunday night, it still appears that a low will consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, generally across the Texas Panhandle vicinity. Coinciding strengthening of southerly low-level flow probably will include 50+ kt around 850 mb, as far south as the lower Rio Grande Valley/lower Texas coast vicinity. This may support a more rapid, albeit still modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with strengthening forcing for ascent in the exit region of a mid-level jet nosing into the Texas South Plains vicinity, and a separate band of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of south central into southeast Texas, elevated destabilization may become sufficient to initiate scattered weak thunderstorms prior to 12Z Monday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Within one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate at least some suppression of initially amplified mid-level ridging approaching the Pacific coast. However, a couple of short wave perturbations digging to its east, through the Southwestern international border vicinity, are forecast to continue to contribute to the evolution of larger-scale mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific coast and as far east as the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. As this occurs, remnant preceding mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley is forecast to progress across the Atlantic Seaboard during the day Sunday. A more rapid offshore acceleration appears likely Sunday night, accompanied by a modest occluded surface cyclone initially developing into areas just offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast by early Sunday. As a trailing cold front advances southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys by Sunday afternoon, generally dry and/or stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An isolated weak thunderstorm or two might still be possible ahead of the front early Sunday near southern Florida coastal areas and in the vicinity of the Keys. Additionally, beneath the cold mid-level air overspreading the southern Great Basin through southern Rockies, scattered convection capable of producing lightning might not entirely be out of the question, mainly near the Mogollon Rim during peak afternoon heating. But, otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears generally negligible across much of the U.S. into Sunday night. By late Sunday night, it still appears that a low will consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, generally across the Texas Panhandle vicinity. Coinciding strengthening of southerly low-level flow probably will include 50+ kt around 850 mb, as far south as the lower Rio Grande Valley/lower Texas coast vicinity. This may support a more rapid, albeit still modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with strengthening forcing for ascent in the exit region of a mid-level jet nosing into the Texas South Plains vicinity, and a separate band of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of south central into southeast Texas, elevated destabilization may become sufficient to initiate scattered weak thunderstorms prior to 12Z Monday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Within one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate at least some suppression of initially amplified mid-level ridging approaching the Pacific coast. However, a couple of short wave perturbations digging to its east, through the Southwestern international border vicinity, are forecast to continue to contribute to the evolution of larger-scale mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific coast and as far east as the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. As this occurs, remnant preceding mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley is forecast to progress across the Atlantic Seaboard during the day Sunday. A more rapid offshore acceleration appears likely Sunday night, accompanied by a modest occluded surface cyclone initially developing into areas just offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast by early Sunday. As a trailing cold front advances southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys by Sunday afternoon, generally dry and/or stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An isolated weak thunderstorm or two might still be possible ahead of the front early Sunday near southern Florida coastal areas and in the vicinity of the Keys. Additionally, beneath the cold mid-level air overspreading the southern Great Basin through southern Rockies, scattered convection capable of producing lightning might not entirely be out of the question, mainly near the Mogollon Rim during peak afternoon heating. But, otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears generally negligible across much of the U.S. into Sunday night. By late Sunday night, it still appears that a low will consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, generally across the Texas Panhandle vicinity. Coinciding strengthening of southerly low-level flow probably will include 50+ kt around 850 mb, as far south as the lower Rio Grande Valley/lower Texas coast vicinity. This may support a more rapid, albeit still modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with strengthening forcing for ascent in the exit region of a mid-level jet nosing into the Texas South Plains vicinity, and a separate band of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of south central into southeast Texas, elevated destabilization may become sufficient to initiate scattered weak thunderstorms prior to 12Z Monday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves quickly from the southern Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic during the day, providing lift via cooling aloft and low-level warm advection. South of there, wind will veer as the wave exits to the northeast. Winds around 850 mb will be strong ahead of the low, with speeds over 60 kt out of the south across NC. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen as it moves in tandem with the upper wave, with a cold front extending southwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the western FL Peninsula. Gradual warming will occur across the coastal Carolinas with a warm front, though this may be counteracted by precipitation. Farther south, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will over spread much of FL, but instability will be weak. ...FL... Storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front, extending from northern FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest storms are forecast to remain over the water, as poor low-level lapse rates and thus weaker instability will exist over land. The greatest chance of isolated strong gusts or a perhaps a brief tornado appears to be with storms moving ashore during the day, as the regime translates southward along the coast. Shear will be strongest through midday, prior to the veering wind regime in the wake of the upper trough. ...Coastal Carolinas... Shear will remain strong over the region even as the upper wave loses amplitude. As the surface low travels from SC into eastern VA during the day, modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting instability. Forecast sounding show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for supercells. However, SBCAPE is likely to remain over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, strong flow just off the surface cold aid wind gust potential with any stronger convection. At this time, the threat appears too low to introduce severe probabilities. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/06/2024 Read more