Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a significant surface cyclone likely to migrate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by mid week, medium-range models indicate that renewed amplification of mid-level ridging within the split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific will be followed by at least a couple of vigorous short waves digging across the Pacific Northwest. One of these, emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, may dig toward or across the Southwestern international border area during the middle to latter portion of the week, before accelerating northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley through the Northeast by next weekend. There is sizable spread evident within the model output concerning this evolution, and associated surface cyclogenesis which might tend to take a track south and east of the preceding cyclone. It appears at least possible that this could contribute to a destabilizing environment potentially supportive of a risk for organized severe storms across parts of southern/southeastern Texas through portions of the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast region. While the extent of this threat remains unclear, it currently seems probable that it will remain less than with the early week system. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a significant surface cyclone likely to migrate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by mid week, medium-range models indicate that renewed amplification of mid-level ridging within the split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific will be followed by at least a couple of vigorous short waves digging across the Pacific Northwest. One of these, emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, may dig toward or across the Southwestern international border area during the middle to latter portion of the week, before accelerating northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley through the Northeast by next weekend. There is sizable spread evident within the model output concerning this evolution, and associated surface cyclogenesis which might tend to take a track south and east of the preceding cyclone. It appears at least possible that this could contribute to a destabilizing environment potentially supportive of a risk for organized severe storms across parts of southern/southeastern Texas through portions of the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast region. While the extent of this threat remains unclear, it currently seems probable that it will remain less than with the early week system. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a significant surface cyclone likely to migrate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by mid week, medium-range models indicate that renewed amplification of mid-level ridging within the split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific will be followed by at least a couple of vigorous short waves digging across the Pacific Northwest. One of these, emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, may dig toward or across the Southwestern international border area during the middle to latter portion of the week, before accelerating northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley through the Northeast by next weekend. There is sizable spread evident within the model output concerning this evolution, and associated surface cyclogenesis which might tend to take a track south and east of the preceding cyclone. It appears at least possible that this could contribute to a destabilizing environment potentially supportive of a risk for organized severe storms across parts of southern/southeastern Texas through portions of the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast region. While the extent of this threat remains unclear, it currently seems probable that it will remain less than with the early week system. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern will persist over the CONUS as a Pacific trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... As the upper trough and surface low move across the southern Plains, strong southerly winds and pockets of lower humidity are possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. Gusts of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% are possible over a minima in recent precipitation. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions are possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. However, unreceptive fuels are not expected to support widespread concerns. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 6 10:42:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0003 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR WESTERN NC...WESTERN INTO CENTRAL VA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN WV
Mesoscale Discussion 0003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...western NC...western into central VA...far southeastern WV Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 060828Z - 061430Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain is forecast to develop from southwest to northeast through 10am EST. Freezing rain rates will initially be light as the atmospheric column moistens, but rates are forecast to intensify into the 0.05-0.15 inch/3 hour range. A transition from freezing rain to rain is forecast to occur over western NC into southern portions of western VA primarily during the 7-10am EST period. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic as of 325am EST shows an extensive precipitation shield across GA into western SC and moving northeast into the southern Appalachians. This precipitation is in response to a mid-level shortwave trough moving northeast across the lower MS Valley early this morning. This mid-level feature is forecast to move into the southern Appalachians during the morning. Strong low-level warm-air advection and moistening via a warm conveyor belt are acting to enhance large-scale lift and contribute to a moistening atmospheric column during the pre-dawn hours across western NC into western/central VA. The latest ensemble model guidance (i.e., HREF, SREF) show agreement in depicting a swath of precipitation spreading north-northeast with hourly rates generally in the 0.05-0.15 inch range. Forecast soundings indicate thermal profiles supporting freezing rain as the primary precipitation type from western NC northward through much of western VA and adjacent southeastern WV. However, this shallow sub-freezing layer near the surface is forecast to slowly erode across western NC and southern parts of western VA as surface temperatures warm to 32 deg F or higher, primarily during the 7-10am EST period. Farther north, some intermittent mixing of freezing rain and sleet is possible especially on the northern periphery of the discussion area (i.e., northwestern parts of VA). ..Smith.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP... LAT...LON 37327841 36917897 36777954 36628003 36278078 35868160 35548205 35308234 35378265 35428265 35958223 36278170 36808133 37218127 37488119 37808091 38397955 38557864 38467786 38217781 37327841 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that rapid, strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Tuesday. While the associated mid-level trough axis takes on an increasingly negative tilt to the east of the Mississippi Valley, intense wind fields are forecast to overspread much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region, accompanied by a moistening and at least weakly destabilizing warm sector. It appears that this will include 50-80+ kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer, contributing to very large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. Aided by strong large-scale forcing for ascent, the evolution of an extensive squall line with embedded and preceding discrete supercell structures may be ongoing early Tuesday across parts of the eastern Gulf States through northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This seems likely to pose a continuing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, while accelerating northeastward and eastward through much of the remainder of the Southeast by Tuesday evening. Thereafter, short wave developments become more unclear into next weekend. However, following renewed amplification within the persistent split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models suggest that additional strong cyclogenesis is possible across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by late next Thursday night into Friday/Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that rapid, strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Tuesday. While the associated mid-level trough axis takes on an increasingly negative tilt to the east of the Mississippi Valley, intense wind fields are forecast to overspread much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region, accompanied by a moistening and at least weakly destabilizing warm sector. It appears that this will include 50-80+ kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer, contributing to very large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. Aided by strong large-scale forcing for ascent, the evolution of an extensive squall line with embedded and preceding discrete supercell structures may be ongoing early Tuesday across parts of the eastern Gulf States through northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This seems likely to pose a continuing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, while accelerating northeastward and eastward through much of the remainder of the Southeast by Tuesday evening. Thereafter, short wave developments become more unclear into next weekend. However, following renewed amplification within the persistent split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models suggest that additional strong cyclogenesis is possible across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by late next Thursday night into Friday/Saturday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified ridging, within the prevailing split mid/upper flow over the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. At least modest surface cyclogenesis may already by ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by Monday morning. However, there is increasing spread evident within the latest model output concerning subsequent developments across Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity by early Tuesday. A secondary surface low may develop across and north-northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening. It is unclear whether this will merge with the primary cyclone Monday night. But, the evolution of a broad and deep primary surface cyclone still appears likely, late Monday night through Tuesday. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and precipitation across and inland of coastal areas. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation, aided by low-level warm advection, may contribute to considerable thunderstorm activity near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas prior to the inland advance of an unstable warm sector boundary layer. Still, the inland advection of mid 60s+ surface dew points across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas appears probable Monday into Monday evening, and across at least southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. Models continue to suggest that this will be sufficient to support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. ...Gulf Coast vicinity... The extent of the organized severe weather potential across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas Monday afternoon and evening, and the potential for hail in elevated convection farther inland, remain at least somewhat unclear. Much may depend on sub-synoptic forcing, but with inland spread of a destabilizing warm sector, there probably will be at least a window of opportunity for scattered boundary-layer based convection, including supercells, in an environment conditionally conducive to large hail and tornadoes. The most significant severe weather potential still seems likely to await the development of the stronger dynamic forcing for ascent, and related rapid surface cyclone deepening, which may impact parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. Inland boundary-layer destabilization coupled with intensifying wind fields, including south to southwesterly flow of 50-70+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer, could contribute to an environment potentially supportive of strong tornadoes. This may accompany the evolution of both discrete supercells and an organizing line or cluster of storms prior to 12Z Tuesday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified ridging, within the prevailing split mid/upper flow over the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. At least modest surface cyclogenesis may already by ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by Monday morning. However, there is increasing spread evident within the latest model output concerning subsequent developments across Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity by early Tuesday. A secondary surface low may develop across and north-northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening. It is unclear whether this will merge with the primary cyclone Monday night. But, the evolution of a broad and deep primary surface cyclone still appears likely, late Monday night through Tuesday. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and precipitation across and inland of coastal areas. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation, aided by low-level warm advection, may contribute to considerable thunderstorm activity near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas prior to the inland advance of an unstable warm sector boundary layer. Still, the inland advection of mid 60s+ surface dew points across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas appears probable Monday into Monday evening, and across at least southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. Models continue to suggest that this will be sufficient to support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. ...Gulf Coast vicinity... The extent of the organized severe weather potential across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas Monday afternoon and evening, and the potential for hail in elevated convection farther inland, remain at least somewhat unclear. Much may depend on sub-synoptic forcing, but with inland spread of a destabilizing warm sector, there probably will be at least a window of opportunity for scattered boundary-layer based convection, including supercells, in an environment conditionally conducive to large hail and tornadoes. The most significant severe weather potential still seems likely to await the development of the stronger dynamic forcing for ascent, and related rapid surface cyclone deepening, which may impact parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. Inland boundary-layer destabilization coupled with intensifying wind fields, including south to southwesterly flow of 50-70+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer, could contribute to an environment potentially supportive of strong tornadoes. This may accompany the evolution of both discrete supercells and an organizing line or cluster of storms prior to 12Z Tuesday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified ridging, within the prevailing split mid/upper flow over the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. At least modest surface cyclogenesis may already by ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by Monday morning. However, there is increasing spread evident within the latest model output concerning subsequent developments across Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity by early Tuesday. A secondary surface low may develop across and north-northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening. It is unclear whether this will merge with the primary cyclone Monday night. But, the evolution of a broad and deep primary surface cyclone still appears likely, late Monday night through Tuesday. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and precipitation across and inland of coastal areas. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation, aided by low-level warm advection, may contribute to considerable thunderstorm activity near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas prior to the inland advance of an unstable warm sector boundary layer. Still, the inland advection of mid 60s+ surface dew points across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas appears probable Monday into Monday evening, and across at least southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. Models continue to suggest that this will be sufficient to support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. ...Gulf Coast vicinity... The extent of the organized severe weather potential across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas Monday afternoon and evening, and the potential for hail in elevated convection farther inland, remain at least somewhat unclear. Much may depend on sub-synoptic forcing, but with inland spread of a destabilizing warm sector, there probably will be at least a window of opportunity for scattered boundary-layer based convection, including supercells, in an environment conditionally conducive to large hail and tornadoes. The most significant severe weather potential still seems likely to await the development of the stronger dynamic forcing for ascent, and related rapid surface cyclone deepening, which may impact parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. Inland boundary-layer destabilization coupled with intensifying wind fields, including south to southwesterly flow of 50-70+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer, could contribute to an environment potentially supportive of strong tornadoes. This may accompany the evolution of both discrete supercells and an organizing line or cluster of storms prior to 12Z Tuesday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 6 07:58:02 UTC 2024.