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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern will persist over the CONUS as a Pacific trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... As the upper trough and surface low move across the southern Plains, strong southerly winds and pockets of lower humidity are possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. Gusts of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% are possible over a minima in recent precipitation. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions are possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. However, unreceptive fuels are not expected to support widespread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern will persist over the CONUS as a Pacific trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... As the upper trough and surface low move across the southern Plains, strong southerly winds and pockets of lower humidity are possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. Gusts of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% are possible over a minima in recent precipitation. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions are possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. However, unreceptive fuels are not expected to support widespread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern will persist over the CONUS as a Pacific trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... As the upper trough and surface low move across the southern Plains, strong southerly winds and pockets of lower humidity are possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. Gusts of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% are possible over a minima in recent precipitation. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions are possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. However, unreceptive fuels are not expected to support widespread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern will persist over the CONUS as a Pacific trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... As the upper trough and surface low move across the southern Plains, strong southerly winds and pockets of lower humidity are possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. Gusts of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% are possible over a minima in recent precipitation. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions are possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. However, unreceptive fuels are not expected to support widespread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern will persist over the CONUS as a Pacific trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... As the upper trough and surface low move across the southern Plains, strong southerly winds and pockets of lower humidity are possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. Gusts of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% are possible over a minima in recent precipitation. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions are possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. However, unreceptive fuels are not expected to support widespread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern will persist over the CONUS as a Pacific trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... As the upper trough and surface low move across the southern Plains, strong southerly winds and pockets of lower humidity are possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. Gusts of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% are possible over a minima in recent precipitation. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions are possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. However, unreceptive fuels are not expected to support widespread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern will persist over the CONUS as a Pacific trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... As the upper trough and surface low move across the southern Plains, strong southerly winds and pockets of lower humidity are possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. Gusts of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% are possible over a minima in recent precipitation. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions are possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. However, unreceptive fuels are not expected to support widespread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern will persist over the CONUS as a Pacific trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... As the upper trough and surface low move across the southern Plains, strong southerly winds and pockets of lower humidity are possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. Gusts of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% are possible over a minima in recent precipitation. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions are possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. However, unreceptive fuels are not expected to support widespread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more