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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...AND SOUTHWEST GA... AMENDED FOR INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA. ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...FL Panhandle/Southeast AL/Southern GA Tuesday morning... General expectation is that a fast-moving, well-organized convective line will be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Robust kinematic fields suggest that strong gusts are likely within this line. Additionally, large, looping low-level hodographs indicate there is possibility for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. With the mid-latitude cyclone (and associated large-scale ascent) becoming increasingly displaced to the north, relatively warm mid-level temperatures downstream across northern FL and southern GA are currently expected to lead to some decrease in the intensity of the line as it continues eastward. ...Coastal/Central Carolinas... As the system becomes negatively tilted, strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the approaching cold front and associated convective line. This increase in low-level moisture will likely be accompanied by widespread cloud cover and showers, limiting diurnal heating. As a result, despite increasing low-level moisture, the combination of limited heating and relatively warm mid-level temperatures could stunt overall buoyancy and updraft strength. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...AND SOUTHWEST GA... AMENDED FOR INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA. ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...FL Panhandle/Southeast AL/Southern GA Tuesday morning... General expectation is that a fast-moving, well-organized convective line will be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Robust kinematic fields suggest that strong gusts are likely within this line. Additionally, large, looping low-level hodographs indicate there is possibility for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. With the mid-latitude cyclone (and associated large-scale ascent) becoming increasingly displaced to the north, relatively warm mid-level temperatures downstream across northern FL and southern GA are currently expected to lead to some decrease in the intensity of the line as it continues eastward. ...Coastal/Central Carolinas... As the system becomes negatively tilted, strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the approaching cold front and associated convective line. This increase in low-level moisture will likely be accompanied by widespread cloud cover and showers, limiting diurnal heating. As a result, despite increasing low-level moisture, the combination of limited heating and relatively warm mid-level temperatures could stunt overall buoyancy and updraft strength. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...AND SOUTHWEST GA... AMENDED FOR INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA. ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...FL Panhandle/Southeast AL/Southern GA Tuesday morning... General expectation is that a fast-moving, well-organized convective line will be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Robust kinematic fields suggest that strong gusts are likely within this line. Additionally, large, looping low-level hodographs indicate there is possibility for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. With the mid-latitude cyclone (and associated large-scale ascent) becoming increasingly displaced to the north, relatively warm mid-level temperatures downstream across northern FL and southern GA are currently expected to lead to some decrease in the intensity of the line as it continues eastward. ...Coastal/Central Carolinas... As the system becomes negatively tilted, strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the approaching cold front and associated convective line. This increase in low-level moisture will likely be accompanied by widespread cloud cover and showers, limiting diurnal heating. As a result, despite increasing low-level moisture, the combination of limited heating and relatively warm mid-level temperatures could stunt overall buoyancy and updraft strength. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...AND SOUTHWEST GA... AMENDED FOR INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA. ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...FL Panhandle/Southeast AL/Southern GA Tuesday morning... General expectation is that a fast-moving, well-organized convective line will be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Robust kinematic fields suggest that strong gusts are likely within this line. Additionally, large, looping low-level hodographs indicate there is possibility for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. With the mid-latitude cyclone (and associated large-scale ascent) becoming increasingly displaced to the north, relatively warm mid-level temperatures downstream across northern FL and southern GA are currently expected to lead to some decrease in the intensity of the line as it continues eastward. ...Coastal/Central Carolinas... As the system becomes negatively tilted, strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the approaching cold front and associated convective line. This increase in low-level moisture will likely be accompanied by widespread cloud cover and showers, limiting diurnal heating. As a result, despite increasing low-level moisture, the combination of limited heating and relatively warm mid-level temperatures could stunt overall buoyancy and updraft strength. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...AND SOUTHWEST GA... AMENDED FOR INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA. ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...FL Panhandle/Southeast AL/Southern GA Tuesday morning... General expectation is that a fast-moving, well-organized convective line will be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Robust kinematic fields suggest that strong gusts are likely within this line. Additionally, large, looping low-level hodographs indicate there is possibility for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. With the mid-latitude cyclone (and associated large-scale ascent) becoming increasingly displaced to the north, relatively warm mid-level temperatures downstream across northern FL and southern GA are currently expected to lead to some decrease in the intensity of the line as it continues eastward. ...Coastal/Central Carolinas... As the system becomes negatively tilted, strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the approaching cold front and associated convective line. This increase in low-level moisture will likely be accompanied by widespread cloud cover and showers, limiting diurnal heating. As a result, despite increasing low-level moisture, the combination of limited heating and relatively warm mid-level temperatures could stunt overall buoyancy and updraft strength. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...AND SOUTHWEST GA... AMENDED FOR INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA. ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...FL Panhandle/Southeast AL/Southern GA Tuesday morning... General expectation is that a fast-moving, well-organized convective line will be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Robust kinematic fields suggest that strong gusts are likely within this line. Additionally, large, looping low-level hodographs indicate there is possibility for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. With the mid-latitude cyclone (and associated large-scale ascent) becoming increasingly displaced to the north, relatively warm mid-level temperatures downstream across northern FL and southern GA are currently expected to lead to some decrease in the intensity of the line as it continues eastward. ...Coastal/Central Carolinas... As the system becomes negatively tilted, strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the approaching cold front and associated convective line. This increase in low-level moisture will likely be accompanied by widespread cloud cover and showers, limiting diurnal heating. As a result, despite increasing low-level moisture, the combination of limited heating and relatively warm mid-level temperatures could stunt overall buoyancy and updraft strength. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Dry and windy conditions are probable across parts of South Texas during the late afternoon and persisting into the evening. Poor fuel receptiveness and strong cold air advection behind the cold front should limit the overall fire weather concerns, however. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Dry and windy conditions are probable across parts of South Texas during the late afternoon and persisting into the evening. Poor fuel receptiveness and strong cold air advection behind the cold front should limit the overall fire weather concerns, however. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Dry and windy conditions are probable across parts of South Texas during the late afternoon and persisting into the evening. Poor fuel receptiveness and strong cold air advection behind the cold front should limit the overall fire weather concerns, however. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Dry and windy conditions are probable across parts of South Texas during the late afternoon and persisting into the evening. Poor fuel receptiveness and strong cold air advection behind the cold front should limit the overall fire weather concerns, however. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Dry and windy conditions are probable across parts of South Texas during the late afternoon and persisting into the evening. Poor fuel receptiveness and strong cold air advection behind the cold front should limit the overall fire weather concerns, however. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Dry and windy conditions are probable across parts of South Texas during the late afternoon and persisting into the evening. Poor fuel receptiveness and strong cold air advection behind the cold front should limit the overall fire weather concerns, however. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Dry and windy conditions are probable across parts of South Texas during the late afternoon and persisting into the evening. Poor fuel receptiveness and strong cold air advection behind the cold front should limit the overall fire weather concerns, however. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected from southeast Texas across the central Gulf Coast and from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Greatest severe potential is anticipated overnight from southeast Louisiana across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, and into the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently extending from Great Basin through the northern Baja Peninsula is forecast to move eastward today while intensifying. By 12Z Monday morning this shortwave will likely have matured into a mid-latitude cyclone centered over northeast NM, with an extensive belt of strong mid-level flow throughout its southern periphery. This cyclone is then expected to evolve eastward across the TX Panhandle and OK throughout the day, with mid-level flow strengthening considerably throughout its eastern periphery. By Monday evening, 100+ kt at 500-mb will likely stretch from the Edwards Plateau into the Ozark Plateau. Further strengthening of this mid-level flow is anticipated overnight Monday as the cyclone tracks a bit more northeastward, ending the period over western MO. Intense low-level flow will accompany this cyclone as well, with a large area of 50+ kt over the southern Plains early Monday. This low-level jet will shift eastward throughout the day and overnight, while gradually strengthening. By early Tuesday morning, 60+ kt 850-mb flow will cover much of the Southeast, with 70+ kt possible from northern MS into middle TN and northern AL. Previous frontal intrusion (evidenced by the cold and dry conditions over the southern Plains and Southeast Sunday) will limit the northern extent of the moisture return and associated severe-thunderstorm potential. General expectation is for secondary surface cyclogenesis over central TX Monday morning, with the primary low well to the north over the TX/OK Panhandles. This secondary low (and associated warm front) should delineate the northern extent of the severe potential as it gradually moves eastward across central portions of east TX and into central LA Monday afternoon and evening. This low is forecast to continue eastward overnight Monday into early Tuesday, progressing across central MS and AL. Severe thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector ahead of this low, as well as along the associated cold front as it surges eastward. ...North TX Early Monday... As the strong mid-level flow associated with the cyclone moves into southern Plains, a fast-moving line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to move across north TX early Monday morning. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, limiting overall updraft strength and duration. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts as it moves eastward. ...TX Coastal Plain/Southeast TX into southwest LA Monday Afternoon and Evening... Two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the region Monday, with the first round likely beginning early Monday afternoon as the warm sector moves into the region. Current guidance suggests this warm sector will be characterized by temperatures in the low 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and moderate buoyancy. However, given the prevalence of cloud cover and early period showers, there is uncertainty regarding if temperatures can reach the low 70s. If they do, some surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes are possible. If temperatures stay in the 60s, low-level stability would likely inhibit surface-based storm development, mitigating the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance has trended towards warmer temperatures and tornado probabilities were increased across the region as a result. A further increase in probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in surface-based storms increases. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front as it moves through, but the strength of these storms will be predicated on coverage and strength of any warm sector development. Strong wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convective line. ...Central Gulf Coast Overnight Monday into Tuesday Morning... As the surface low continues eastward, a convective line is expected to mature along the cold front as it encounters a moderately moist and buoyant airmass and increasingly strong low-level flow. As the line matures, it will likely transition from a more parallel stratiform structure to a more organized leading-line, trailing stratiform configuration. Robust low-level kinematics, characterized by 50-60 kt just above the surface and 500+ m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH, suggest both significant-severe gusts and strong QLCS tornadoes are possible. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected from southeast Texas across the central Gulf Coast and from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Greatest severe potential is anticipated overnight from southeast Louisiana across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, and into the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently extending from Great Basin through the northern Baja Peninsula is forecast to move eastward today while intensifying. By 12Z Monday morning this shortwave will likely have matured into a mid-latitude cyclone centered over northeast NM, with an extensive belt of strong mid-level flow throughout its southern periphery. This cyclone is then expected to evolve eastward across the TX Panhandle and OK throughout the day, with mid-level flow strengthening considerably throughout its eastern periphery. By Monday evening, 100+ kt at 500-mb will likely stretch from the Edwards Plateau into the Ozark Plateau. Further strengthening of this mid-level flow is anticipated overnight Monday as the cyclone tracks a bit more northeastward, ending the period over western MO. Intense low-level flow will accompany this cyclone as well, with a large area of 50+ kt over the southern Plains early Monday. This low-level jet will shift eastward throughout the day and overnight, while gradually strengthening. By early Tuesday morning, 60+ kt 850-mb flow will cover much of the Southeast, with 70+ kt possible from northern MS into middle TN and northern AL. Previous frontal intrusion (evidenced by the cold and dry conditions over the southern Plains and Southeast Sunday) will limit the northern extent of the moisture return and associated severe-thunderstorm potential. General expectation is for secondary surface cyclogenesis over central TX Monday morning, with the primary low well to the north over the TX/OK Panhandles. This secondary low (and associated warm front) should delineate the northern extent of the severe potential as it gradually moves eastward across central portions of east TX and into central LA Monday afternoon and evening. This low is forecast to continue eastward overnight Monday into early Tuesday, progressing across central MS and AL. Severe thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector ahead of this low, as well as along the associated cold front as it surges eastward. ...North TX Early Monday... As the strong mid-level flow associated with the cyclone moves into southern Plains, a fast-moving line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to move across north TX early Monday morning. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, limiting overall updraft strength and duration. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts as it moves eastward. ...TX Coastal Plain/Southeast TX into southwest LA Monday Afternoon and Evening... Two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the region Monday, with the first round likely beginning early Monday afternoon as the warm sector moves into the region. Current guidance suggests this warm sector will be characterized by temperatures in the low 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and moderate buoyancy. However, given the prevalence of cloud cover and early period showers, there is uncertainty regarding if temperatures can reach the low 70s. If they do, some surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes are possible. If temperatures stay in the 60s, low-level stability would likely inhibit surface-based storm development, mitigating the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance has trended towards warmer temperatures and tornado probabilities were increased across the region as a result. A further increase in probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in surface-based storms increases. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front as it moves through, but the strength of these storms will be predicated on coverage and strength of any warm sector development. Strong wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convective line. ...Central Gulf Coast Overnight Monday into Tuesday Morning... As the surface low continues eastward, a convective line is expected to mature along the cold front as it encounters a moderately moist and buoyant airmass and increasingly strong low-level flow. As the line matures, it will likely transition from a more parallel stratiform structure to a more organized leading-line, trailing stratiform configuration. Robust low-level kinematics, characterized by 50-60 kt just above the surface and 500+ m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH, suggest both significant-severe gusts and strong QLCS tornadoes are possible. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected from southeast Texas across the central Gulf Coast and from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Greatest severe potential is anticipated overnight from southeast Louisiana across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, and into the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently extending from Great Basin through the northern Baja Peninsula is forecast to move eastward today while intensifying. By 12Z Monday morning this shortwave will likely have matured into a mid-latitude cyclone centered over northeast NM, with an extensive belt of strong mid-level flow throughout its southern periphery. This cyclone is then expected to evolve eastward across the TX Panhandle and OK throughout the day, with mid-level flow strengthening considerably throughout its eastern periphery. By Monday evening, 100+ kt at 500-mb will likely stretch from the Edwards Plateau into the Ozark Plateau. Further strengthening of this mid-level flow is anticipated overnight Monday as the cyclone tracks a bit more northeastward, ending the period over western MO. Intense low-level flow will accompany this cyclone as well, with a large area of 50+ kt over the southern Plains early Monday. This low-level jet will shift eastward throughout the day and overnight, while gradually strengthening. By early Tuesday morning, 60+ kt 850-mb flow will cover much of the Southeast, with 70+ kt possible from northern MS into middle TN and northern AL. Previous frontal intrusion (evidenced by the cold and dry conditions over the southern Plains and Southeast Sunday) will limit the northern extent of the moisture return and associated severe-thunderstorm potential. General expectation is for secondary surface cyclogenesis over central TX Monday morning, with the primary low well to the north over the TX/OK Panhandles. This secondary low (and associated warm front) should delineate the northern extent of the severe potential as it gradually moves eastward across central portions of east TX and into central LA Monday afternoon and evening. This low is forecast to continue eastward overnight Monday into early Tuesday, progressing across central MS and AL. Severe thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector ahead of this low, as well as along the associated cold front as it surges eastward. ...North TX Early Monday... As the strong mid-level flow associated with the cyclone moves into southern Plains, a fast-moving line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to move across north TX early Monday morning. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, limiting overall updraft strength and duration. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts as it moves eastward. ...TX Coastal Plain/Southeast TX into southwest LA Monday Afternoon and Evening... Two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the region Monday, with the first round likely beginning early Monday afternoon as the warm sector moves into the region. Current guidance suggests this warm sector will be characterized by temperatures in the low 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and moderate buoyancy. However, given the prevalence of cloud cover and early period showers, there is uncertainty regarding if temperatures can reach the low 70s. If they do, some surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes are possible. If temperatures stay in the 60s, low-level stability would likely inhibit surface-based storm development, mitigating the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance has trended towards warmer temperatures and tornado probabilities were increased across the region as a result. A further increase in probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in surface-based storms increases. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front as it moves through, but the strength of these storms will be predicated on coverage and strength of any warm sector development. Strong wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convective line. ...Central Gulf Coast Overnight Monday into Tuesday Morning... As the surface low continues eastward, a convective line is expected to mature along the cold front as it encounters a moderately moist and buoyant airmass and increasingly strong low-level flow. As the line matures, it will likely transition from a more parallel stratiform structure to a more organized leading-line, trailing stratiform configuration. Robust low-level kinematics, characterized by 50-60 kt just above the surface and 500+ m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH, suggest both significant-severe gusts and strong QLCS tornadoes are possible. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected from southeast Texas across the central Gulf Coast and from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Greatest severe potential is anticipated overnight from southeast Louisiana across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, and into the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently extending from Great Basin through the northern Baja Peninsula is forecast to move eastward today while intensifying. By 12Z Monday morning this shortwave will likely have matured into a mid-latitude cyclone centered over northeast NM, with an extensive belt of strong mid-level flow throughout its southern periphery. This cyclone is then expected to evolve eastward across the TX Panhandle and OK throughout the day, with mid-level flow strengthening considerably throughout its eastern periphery. By Monday evening, 100+ kt at 500-mb will likely stretch from the Edwards Plateau into the Ozark Plateau. Further strengthening of this mid-level flow is anticipated overnight Monday as the cyclone tracks a bit more northeastward, ending the period over western MO. Intense low-level flow will accompany this cyclone as well, with a large area of 50+ kt over the southern Plains early Monday. This low-level jet will shift eastward throughout the day and overnight, while gradually strengthening. By early Tuesday morning, 60+ kt 850-mb flow will cover much of the Southeast, with 70+ kt possible from northern MS into middle TN and northern AL. Previous frontal intrusion (evidenced by the cold and dry conditions over the southern Plains and Southeast Sunday) will limit the northern extent of the moisture return and associated severe-thunderstorm potential. General expectation is for secondary surface cyclogenesis over central TX Monday morning, with the primary low well to the north over the TX/OK Panhandles. This secondary low (and associated warm front) should delineate the northern extent of the severe potential as it gradually moves eastward across central portions of east TX and into central LA Monday afternoon and evening. This low is forecast to continue eastward overnight Monday into early Tuesday, progressing across central MS and AL. Severe thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector ahead of this low, as well as along the associated cold front as it surges eastward. ...North TX Early Monday... As the strong mid-level flow associated with the cyclone moves into southern Plains, a fast-moving line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to move across north TX early Monday morning. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, limiting overall updraft strength and duration. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts as it moves eastward. ...TX Coastal Plain/Southeast TX into southwest LA Monday Afternoon and Evening... Two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the region Monday, with the first round likely beginning early Monday afternoon as the warm sector moves into the region. Current guidance suggests this warm sector will be characterized by temperatures in the low 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and moderate buoyancy. However, given the prevalence of cloud cover and early period showers, there is uncertainty regarding if temperatures can reach the low 70s. If they do, some surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes are possible. If temperatures stay in the 60s, low-level stability would likely inhibit surface-based storm development, mitigating the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance has trended towards warmer temperatures and tornado probabilities were increased across the region as a result. A further increase in probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in surface-based storms increases. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front as it moves through, but the strength of these storms will be predicated on coverage and strength of any warm sector development. Strong wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convective line. ...Central Gulf Coast Overnight Monday into Tuesday Morning... As the surface low continues eastward, a convective line is expected to mature along the cold front as it encounters a moderately moist and buoyant airmass and increasingly strong low-level flow. As the line matures, it will likely transition from a more parallel stratiform structure to a more organized leading-line, trailing stratiform configuration. Robust low-level kinematics, characterized by 50-60 kt just above the surface and 500+ m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH, suggest both significant-severe gusts and strong QLCS tornadoes are possible. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected from southeast Texas across the central Gulf Coast and from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Greatest severe potential is anticipated overnight from southeast Louisiana across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, and into the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently extending from Great Basin through the northern Baja Peninsula is forecast to move eastward today while intensifying. By 12Z Monday morning this shortwave will likely have matured into a mid-latitude cyclone centered over northeast NM, with an extensive belt of strong mid-level flow throughout its southern periphery. This cyclone is then expected to evolve eastward across the TX Panhandle and OK throughout the day, with mid-level flow strengthening considerably throughout its eastern periphery. By Monday evening, 100+ kt at 500-mb will likely stretch from the Edwards Plateau into the Ozark Plateau. Further strengthening of this mid-level flow is anticipated overnight Monday as the cyclone tracks a bit more northeastward, ending the period over western MO. Intense low-level flow will accompany this cyclone as well, with a large area of 50+ kt over the southern Plains early Monday. This low-level jet will shift eastward throughout the day and overnight, while gradually strengthening. By early Tuesday morning, 60+ kt 850-mb flow will cover much of the Southeast, with 70+ kt possible from northern MS into middle TN and northern AL. Previous frontal intrusion (evidenced by the cold and dry conditions over the southern Plains and Southeast Sunday) will limit the northern extent of the moisture return and associated severe-thunderstorm potential. General expectation is for secondary surface cyclogenesis over central TX Monday morning, with the primary low well to the north over the TX/OK Panhandles. This secondary low (and associated warm front) should delineate the northern extent of the severe potential as it gradually moves eastward across central portions of east TX and into central LA Monday afternoon and evening. This low is forecast to continue eastward overnight Monday into early Tuesday, progressing across central MS and AL. Severe thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector ahead of this low, as well as along the associated cold front as it surges eastward. ...North TX Early Monday... As the strong mid-level flow associated with the cyclone moves into southern Plains, a fast-moving line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to move across north TX early Monday morning. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, limiting overall updraft strength and duration. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts as it moves eastward. ...TX Coastal Plain/Southeast TX into southwest LA Monday Afternoon and Evening... Two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the region Monday, with the first round likely beginning early Monday afternoon as the warm sector moves into the region. Current guidance suggests this warm sector will be characterized by temperatures in the low 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and moderate buoyancy. However, given the prevalence of cloud cover and early period showers, there is uncertainty regarding if temperatures can reach the low 70s. If they do, some surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes are possible. If temperatures stay in the 60s, low-level stability would likely inhibit surface-based storm development, mitigating the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance has trended towards warmer temperatures and tornado probabilities were increased across the region as a result. A further increase in probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in surface-based storms increases. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front as it moves through, but the strength of these storms will be predicated on coverage and strength of any warm sector development. Strong wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convective line. ...Central Gulf Coast Overnight Monday into Tuesday Morning... As the surface low continues eastward, a convective line is expected to mature along the cold front as it encounters a moderately moist and buoyant airmass and increasingly strong low-level flow. As the line matures, it will likely transition from a more parallel stratiform structure to a more organized leading-line, trailing stratiform configuration. Robust low-level kinematics, characterized by 50-60 kt just above the surface and 500+ m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH, suggest both significant-severe gusts and strong QLCS tornadoes are possible. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected from southeast Texas across the central Gulf Coast and from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Greatest severe potential is anticipated overnight from southeast Louisiana across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, and into the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently extending from Great Basin through the northern Baja Peninsula is forecast to move eastward today while intensifying. By 12Z Monday morning this shortwave will likely have matured into a mid-latitude cyclone centered over northeast NM, with an extensive belt of strong mid-level flow throughout its southern periphery. This cyclone is then expected to evolve eastward across the TX Panhandle and OK throughout the day, with mid-level flow strengthening considerably throughout its eastern periphery. By Monday evening, 100+ kt at 500-mb will likely stretch from the Edwards Plateau into the Ozark Plateau. Further strengthening of this mid-level flow is anticipated overnight Monday as the cyclone tracks a bit more northeastward, ending the period over western MO. Intense low-level flow will accompany this cyclone as well, with a large area of 50+ kt over the southern Plains early Monday. This low-level jet will shift eastward throughout the day and overnight, while gradually strengthening. By early Tuesday morning, 60+ kt 850-mb flow will cover much of the Southeast, with 70+ kt possible from northern MS into middle TN and northern AL. Previous frontal intrusion (evidenced by the cold and dry conditions over the southern Plains and Southeast Sunday) will limit the northern extent of the moisture return and associated severe-thunderstorm potential. General expectation is for secondary surface cyclogenesis over central TX Monday morning, with the primary low well to the north over the TX/OK Panhandles. This secondary low (and associated warm front) should delineate the northern extent of the severe potential as it gradually moves eastward across central portions of east TX and into central LA Monday afternoon and evening. This low is forecast to continue eastward overnight Monday into early Tuesday, progressing across central MS and AL. Severe thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector ahead of this low, as well as along the associated cold front as it surges eastward. ...North TX Early Monday... As the strong mid-level flow associated with the cyclone moves into southern Plains, a fast-moving line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to move across north TX early Monday morning. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, limiting overall updraft strength and duration. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts as it moves eastward. ...TX Coastal Plain/Southeast TX into southwest LA Monday Afternoon and Evening... Two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the region Monday, with the first round likely beginning early Monday afternoon as the warm sector moves into the region. Current guidance suggests this warm sector will be characterized by temperatures in the low 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and moderate buoyancy. However, given the prevalence of cloud cover and early period showers, there is uncertainty regarding if temperatures can reach the low 70s. If they do, some surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes are possible. If temperatures stay in the 60s, low-level stability would likely inhibit surface-based storm development, mitigating the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance has trended towards warmer temperatures and tornado probabilities were increased across the region as a result. A further increase in probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in surface-based storms increases. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front as it moves through, but the strength of these storms will be predicated on coverage and strength of any warm sector development. Strong wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convective line. ...Central Gulf Coast Overnight Monday into Tuesday Morning... As the surface low continues eastward, a convective line is expected to mature along the cold front as it encounters a moderately moist and buoyant airmass and increasingly strong low-level flow. As the line matures, it will likely transition from a more parallel stratiform structure to a more organized leading-line, trailing stratiform configuration. Robust low-level kinematics, characterized by 50-60 kt just above the surface and 500+ m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH, suggest both significant-severe gusts and strong QLCS tornadoes are possible. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected from southeast Texas across the central Gulf Coast and from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Greatest severe potential is anticipated overnight from southeast Louisiana across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, and into the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently extending from Great Basin through the northern Baja Peninsula is forecast to move eastward today while intensifying. By 12Z Monday morning this shortwave will likely have matured into a mid-latitude cyclone centered over northeast NM, with an extensive belt of strong mid-level flow throughout its southern periphery. This cyclone is then expected to evolve eastward across the TX Panhandle and OK throughout the day, with mid-level flow strengthening considerably throughout its eastern periphery. By Monday evening, 100+ kt at 500-mb will likely stretch from the Edwards Plateau into the Ozark Plateau. Further strengthening of this mid-level flow is anticipated overnight Monday as the cyclone tracks a bit more northeastward, ending the period over western MO. Intense low-level flow will accompany this cyclone as well, with a large area of 50+ kt over the southern Plains early Monday. This low-level jet will shift eastward throughout the day and overnight, while gradually strengthening. By early Tuesday morning, 60+ kt 850-mb flow will cover much of the Southeast, with 70+ kt possible from northern MS into middle TN and northern AL. Previous frontal intrusion (evidenced by the cold and dry conditions over the southern Plains and Southeast Sunday) will limit the northern extent of the moisture return and associated severe-thunderstorm potential. General expectation is for secondary surface cyclogenesis over central TX Monday morning, with the primary low well to the north over the TX/OK Panhandles. This secondary low (and associated warm front) should delineate the northern extent of the severe potential as it gradually moves eastward across central portions of east TX and into central LA Monday afternoon and evening. This low is forecast to continue eastward overnight Monday into early Tuesday, progressing across central MS and AL. Severe thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector ahead of this low, as well as along the associated cold front as it surges eastward. ...North TX Early Monday... As the strong mid-level flow associated with the cyclone moves into southern Plains, a fast-moving line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to move across north TX early Monday morning. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, limiting overall updraft strength and duration. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts as it moves eastward. ...TX Coastal Plain/Southeast TX into southwest LA Monday Afternoon and Evening... Two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the region Monday, with the first round likely beginning early Monday afternoon as the warm sector moves into the region. Current guidance suggests this warm sector will be characterized by temperatures in the low 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and moderate buoyancy. However, given the prevalence of cloud cover and early period showers, there is uncertainty regarding if temperatures can reach the low 70s. If they do, some surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes are possible. If temperatures stay in the 60s, low-level stability would likely inhibit surface-based storm development, mitigating the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance has trended towards warmer temperatures and tornado probabilities were increased across the region as a result. A further increase in probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in surface-based storms increases. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front as it moves through, but the strength of these storms will be predicated on coverage and strength of any warm sector development. Strong wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convective line. ...Central Gulf Coast Overnight Monday into Tuesday Morning... As the surface low continues eastward, a convective line is expected to mature along the cold front as it encounters a moderately moist and buoyant airmass and increasingly strong low-level flow. As the line matures, it will likely transition from a more parallel stratiform structure to a more organized leading-line, trailing stratiform configuration. Robust low-level kinematics, characterized by 50-60 kt just above the surface and 500+ m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH, suggest both significant-severe gusts and strong QLCS tornadoes are possible. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more