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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear mostly quiescent through the forecast period, as the potent upper-level cyclone over the central US quickly moves to the east. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the CONUS. However, surface winds will remain light in the dry, but relatively cool post-frontal air mass. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas, where lingering low humidity and occasional gusty surface winds are possible through the afternoon. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning is possible in rain and snow showers near the Pacific Northwest coast and across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into the Great Basin on Wednesday. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified mid/upper ridging within the split westerlies across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and in the wake of a broad, but weakening, cyclone migrating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region, cyclonic flow and seasonably low mid-level heights likely will encompass much of North America through this period. Within this regime, to the east of the ridging, a couple of notable digging short wave perturbations are forecast to contribute to amplification of the larger-scale troughing inland of the North American Pacific coast. Models indicate that one, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, will progress southeastward inland of the Pacific Northwest coast, through much of the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin by late Wednesday night. Another, emerging from the northern Canadian Arctic vicinity, is forecast to turn southward into the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Canadian Prairies. In lower levels, a cold front trailing the departing cyclone appears likely to continue advancing away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, while stalling and weakening near or south of the Florida Straits/Keys into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, surface troughing may slowly begin to deepen to the lee of the southern Rockies through the lower Rio Grande Valley, accompanied by northward return of a moistening boundary layer across the western Gulf of Mexico. By late Wednesday night, this may include surface dew point increases to near or above 60 F, beneath relatively warm, dry and capping lower/mid-tropospheric air. Beneath a pocket of colder air aloft associated with the inland advancing short wave, which may include 500 mb temperatures around -35 C, some convection capable of producing lightning appears possible near Washington and Oregon coastal areas early Wednesday. Potential for lightning inland of coastal areas remains unclear. However, latest available forecast soundings suggest that there may be enough boundary layer warming to contribute to marginally favorable thermodynamic profiles in a corridor from near the Great Salt Lake into parts of the northern Sierra Nevada by late Wednesday afternoon, aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning is possible in rain and snow showers near the Pacific Northwest coast and across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into the Great Basin on Wednesday. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified mid/upper ridging within the split westerlies across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and in the wake of a broad, but weakening, cyclone migrating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region, cyclonic flow and seasonably low mid-level heights likely will encompass much of North America through this period. Within this regime, to the east of the ridging, a couple of notable digging short wave perturbations are forecast to contribute to amplification of the larger-scale troughing inland of the North American Pacific coast. Models indicate that one, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, will progress southeastward inland of the Pacific Northwest coast, through much of the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin by late Wednesday night. Another, emerging from the northern Canadian Arctic vicinity, is forecast to turn southward into the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Canadian Prairies. In lower levels, a cold front trailing the departing cyclone appears likely to continue advancing away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, while stalling and weakening near or south of the Florida Straits/Keys into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, surface troughing may slowly begin to deepen to the lee of the southern Rockies through the lower Rio Grande Valley, accompanied by northward return of a moistening boundary layer across the western Gulf of Mexico. By late Wednesday night, this may include surface dew point increases to near or above 60 F, beneath relatively warm, dry and capping lower/mid-tropospheric air. Beneath a pocket of colder air aloft associated with the inland advancing short wave, which may include 500 mb temperatures around -35 C, some convection capable of producing lightning appears possible near Washington and Oregon coastal areas early Wednesday. Potential for lightning inland of coastal areas remains unclear. However, latest available forecast soundings suggest that there may be enough boundary layer warming to contribute to marginally favorable thermodynamic profiles in a corridor from near the Great Salt Lake into parts of the northern Sierra Nevada by late Wednesday afternoon, aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning is possible in rain and snow showers near the Pacific Northwest coast and across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into the Great Basin on Wednesday. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified mid/upper ridging within the split westerlies across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and in the wake of a broad, but weakening, cyclone migrating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region, cyclonic flow and seasonably low mid-level heights likely will encompass much of North America through this period. Within this regime, to the east of the ridging, a couple of notable digging short wave perturbations are forecast to contribute to amplification of the larger-scale troughing inland of the North American Pacific coast. Models indicate that one, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, will progress southeastward inland of the Pacific Northwest coast, through much of the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin by late Wednesday night. Another, emerging from the northern Canadian Arctic vicinity, is forecast to turn southward into the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Canadian Prairies. In lower levels, a cold front trailing the departing cyclone appears likely to continue advancing away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, while stalling and weakening near or south of the Florida Straits/Keys into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, surface troughing may slowly begin to deepen to the lee of the southern Rockies through the lower Rio Grande Valley, accompanied by northward return of a moistening boundary layer across the western Gulf of Mexico. By late Wednesday night, this may include surface dew point increases to near or above 60 F, beneath relatively warm, dry and capping lower/mid-tropospheric air. Beneath a pocket of colder air aloft associated with the inland advancing short wave, which may include 500 mb temperatures around -35 C, some convection capable of producing lightning appears possible near Washington and Oregon coastal areas early Wednesday. Potential for lightning inland of coastal areas remains unclear. However, latest available forecast soundings suggest that there may be enough boundary layer warming to contribute to marginally favorable thermodynamic profiles in a corridor from near the Great Salt Lake into parts of the northern Sierra Nevada by late Wednesday afternoon, aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA...AND ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALVES OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states today, accompanied by a risk for very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. ...East/Southeast... A strong/deepening upper low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area today, accompanied by a broad zone of intense deep-layer cyclonic flow that will surrounding this system. An associated/occluded surface low will shift northeastward across the Midwest toward the Upper Great Lakes, while a strong cold front expected to be crossing the Tennessee Valley/central Gulf Coast region moves quickly eastward across the East Coast States through afternoon/evening. Along the front, within an amply unstable warm sector, an organized band of strong/locally severe storms is forecast to be ongoing across the Alabama vicinity at the start of the period. Given highly favorable deep-layer shear, owing to winds increasing and veering with height through the troposphere, wind gusts locally capable of producing damage, and the possibility of strong tornadoes, will exist. Additionally, any pre-frontal, cellular storms which may evolve with time would likely become supercells, posing particular risk for a strong tornado. With time, as the line of storms advances eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through midday, some increase in low-level theta-e advection off the Gulf Stream into the Carolinas is expected. This will act to partially offset the widespread/ongoing cloud cover and showery precipitation across this area, to allow some surface-based destabilization of the warm sector to occur. Eventual development of pre-frontal, cellular convection may gradually evolve as a result, which -- given the extremely strong deep-layer wind field -- would likely yield a secondary area of higher-probability tornado risk, to include the potential for strong tornadoes. Meanwhile, strong/damaging wind gusts are expected across the East Coast states as far north as southeastern Virginia, as bands of storms accompany frontal passage across this area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss/Lyons.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA...AND ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALVES OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states today, accompanied by a risk for very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. ...East/Southeast... A strong/deepening upper low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area today, accompanied by a broad zone of intense deep-layer cyclonic flow that will surrounding this system. An associated/occluded surface low will shift northeastward across the Midwest toward the Upper Great Lakes, while a strong cold front expected to be crossing the Tennessee Valley/central Gulf Coast region moves quickly eastward across the East Coast States through afternoon/evening. Along the front, within an amply unstable warm sector, an organized band of strong/locally severe storms is forecast to be ongoing across the Alabama vicinity at the start of the period. Given highly favorable deep-layer shear, owing to winds increasing and veering with height through the troposphere, wind gusts locally capable of producing damage, and the possibility of strong tornadoes, will exist. Additionally, any pre-frontal, cellular storms which may evolve with time would likely become supercells, posing particular risk for a strong tornado. With time, as the line of storms advances eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through midday, some increase in low-level theta-e advection off the Gulf Stream into the Carolinas is expected. This will act to partially offset the widespread/ongoing cloud cover and showery precipitation across this area, to allow some surface-based destabilization of the warm sector to occur. Eventual development of pre-frontal, cellular convection may gradually evolve as a result, which -- given the extremely strong deep-layer wind field -- would likely yield a secondary area of higher-probability tornado risk, to include the potential for strong tornadoes. Meanwhile, strong/damaging wind gusts are expected across the East Coast states as far north as southeastern Virginia, as bands of storms accompany frontal passage across this area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss/Lyons.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA...AND ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALVES OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states today, accompanied by a risk for very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. ...East/Southeast... A strong/deepening upper low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area today, accompanied by a broad zone of intense deep-layer cyclonic flow that will surrounding this system. An associated/occluded surface low will shift northeastward across the Midwest toward the Upper Great Lakes, while a strong cold front expected to be crossing the Tennessee Valley/central Gulf Coast region moves quickly eastward across the East Coast States through afternoon/evening. Along the front, within an amply unstable warm sector, an organized band of strong/locally severe storms is forecast to be ongoing across the Alabama vicinity at the start of the period. Given highly favorable deep-layer shear, owing to winds increasing and veering with height through the troposphere, wind gusts locally capable of producing damage, and the possibility of strong tornadoes, will exist. Additionally, any pre-frontal, cellular storms which may evolve with time would likely become supercells, posing particular risk for a strong tornado. With time, as the line of storms advances eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through midday, some increase in low-level theta-e advection off the Gulf Stream into the Carolinas is expected. This will act to partially offset the widespread/ongoing cloud cover and showery precipitation across this area, to allow some surface-based destabilization of the warm sector to occur. Eventual development of pre-frontal, cellular convection may gradually evolve as a result, which -- given the extremely strong deep-layer wind field -- would likely yield a secondary area of higher-probability tornado risk, to include the potential for strong tornadoes. Meanwhile, strong/damaging wind gusts are expected across the East Coast states as far north as southeastern Virginia, as bands of storms accompany frontal passage across this area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss/Lyons.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA...AND ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALVES OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states today, accompanied by a risk for very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. ...East/Southeast... A strong/deepening upper low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area today, accompanied by a broad zone of intense deep-layer cyclonic flow that will surrounding this system. An associated/occluded surface low will shift northeastward across the Midwest toward the Upper Great Lakes, while a strong cold front expected to be crossing the Tennessee Valley/central Gulf Coast region moves quickly eastward across the East Coast States through afternoon/evening. Along the front, within an amply unstable warm sector, an organized band of strong/locally severe storms is forecast to be ongoing across the Alabama vicinity at the start of the period. Given highly favorable deep-layer shear, owing to winds increasing and veering with height through the troposphere, wind gusts locally capable of producing damage, and the possibility of strong tornadoes, will exist. Additionally, any pre-frontal, cellular storms which may evolve with time would likely become supercells, posing particular risk for a strong tornado. With time, as the line of storms advances eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through midday, some increase in low-level theta-e advection off the Gulf Stream into the Carolinas is expected. This will act to partially offset the widespread/ongoing cloud cover and showery precipitation across this area, to allow some surface-based destabilization of the warm sector to occur. Eventual development of pre-frontal, cellular convection may gradually evolve as a result, which -- given the extremely strong deep-layer wind field -- would likely yield a secondary area of higher-probability tornado risk, to include the potential for strong tornadoes. Meanwhile, strong/damaging wind gusts are expected across the East Coast states as far north as southeastern Virginia, as bands of storms accompany frontal passage across this area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss/Lyons.. 01/09/2024 Read more