Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust convection will develop across these areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist. A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not currently appear strong enough to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included. Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day 7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so, some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the Plains/MS Valley. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate area of isolated severe potential also developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Central Gulf Coast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across far southeastern MS/LA into southern AL. The airmass ahead of this convection should be only weakly unstable, as low-level moisture will struggle to advance quickly enough northward ahead of the line. Still, various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across southern AL and the FL Panhandle show strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet over the Southeast. This shear, coupled with weak but potentially sufficient boundary-layer instability, should be enough for an isolated threat for damaging winds to continue through at least Tuesday morning as the line moves eastward. Any tornado threat will probably remain confined along and very near the coast, where greater low-level moisture is forecast, in the presence of sufficient but weakening low-level shear through the day. Some guidance suggests that an isolated severe threat may also persist Tuesday evening/night farther east across parts of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA, although this potential is more uncertain and dependent on mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints advancing inland across these areas. ...Ohio Valley... A very strong mid/upper-level jet, with winds around 100 kt at 500 mb, will be present over parts of the mid MS into OH Valleys Tuesday morning. This jet will be embedded within a large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western/central CONUS, and associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to continue east-northeastward across the OH Valley and Great Lakes through the period. The primary surface low should be over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, with a trailing cold front extending southward over the mid/lower MS Valley. Moisture ahead of this front will likely remain quite limited, especially with northward extent into the OH Valley. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface dewpoints should be present late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, potentially as far north as the IN/MI border vicinity. Cold mid-level temperatures with somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft, coupled with modest daytime heating, should support the development of weak instability by early Tuesday afternoon (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less). Strong deep-layer shear should foster convective organization with any low-topped thunderstorms that can form. Isolated severe/damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level winds. But, some hail may also occur with the more robust cores. This convection is expected to quickly weaken by early Tuesday evening across western OH and central KY with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone that will promote the dangerous wildfire conditions across parts of the High Plains today will continue to drift eastward tomorrow/Monday, promoting deep-layer westerly flow in its wake. Across much of southwestern Texas, downslope flow will promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH Monday afternoon. Given modestly dry fuels, some threat exists for wildfire spread. However, potential also exists for periodic cloud cover and perhaps a few showers, possibly limiting wildfire-spread conditions to a degree. Either way, ambient surface winds and RH should be favorable enough to warrant the introduction of Elevated highlights across portions of the southern High Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such, "high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained. The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based, fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft development become robust and persistent. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more