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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a well- developed cyclone, initially centered over the KS/OK/MO tri-state region, along a synoptic-scale trough extending from MN to the Arklatex to near BRO. The 500-mb low is expected to move northeastward through the period, reaching to near HUF by 00Z and over southern ON late tonight. Meanwhile, the trailing trough will become more neutrally to slightly positively tilted, crossing AL around 00Z and moving offshore from NC around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, a low was analyzed at 11Z near STL, with occluded front southeastward into AL, and cold front across southern AL, the western FL Panhandle, and the north-central Gulf. A warm front was drawn from south-central AL southeastward over the northeastern Gulf, then diffusely eastward over central FL and adjoining parts of the Atlantic. The warm front may shift/redevelop quickly northward today into northern FL and parts of GA, as well as reaching the Carolinas during the afternoon. The low should move erratically northeastward to southern Lake Michigan by 00Z, becoming more deeply occluded. In the meantime today, the cold front should sweep across much of the Southeast, extending from central/eastern NC south- southwestward across Atlantic waters to central FL by around 00Z. The cold front should continue to be preceded by a well-organized squall line. ...Southeast... A strong-severe squall line, with embedded bow/LEWP formations and sporadically tornadic meso/misovortices -- was evident over southeastern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Isolated supercells ahead of the line this morning, in the FL Panhandle and eventually into portions of southwestern GA -- will pose a tornado, wind and isolated severe-hail threat as well. Even for relatively short- lived tornadoes, fast translation can lengthen paths more than usual, and enhance potential damage intensity on one side to significant (EF2+) level. For more detailed near-term coverage, see SPC tornado watch 4 and associated mesoscale discussions. The main convective band should continue to produce damaging wind and occasional QLCS tornadoes as it moves eastward over the outlook area today. A relative min in forcing for discrete, warm-sector supercells, as well as in upstream boundary-layer theta-e available to the squall line, remain plausible, and account for a somewhat lower (but still well worth outlook coverage) all-hazard severe threat between the northeast Gulf Coast and Carolinas areas. Then potential is expected to ramp up again this afternoon into early evening as the activity nears the Atlantic Coast, and as warm/moist advection from a modifying Atlantic boundary layer supports increasing potential for oceanic supercells to reach the shore there. Warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range the next few hours in the FL Panhandle, and mid/late afternoon over portions of the coastal Carolinas and west-central/central FL. Otherwise, MLCAPE of 200-700 J/kg should be common over most of the outlook area just ahead of the QLCS. Vertical shear, by almost any common measure, will remain strong area-wide. 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes should be common, along with 35-50 kt vectors in the lowest km. Mass response to the progressive mid/upper cyclone and trough will continue to yield a 65-95-kt LLJ shifting east-northeastward across the preceding warm sector. This will contribute to effective SRH over 400 J/kg in the warm-frontal zone, and 200-500 J/kg in the warm sector. In addition to enlarging low-level hodographs, LLJ-associated momentum transfer from the intense winds just above the surface, in strong convective cores, may yield locally severe downdraft gusts, some perhaps reaching 65 kt. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a well- developed cyclone, initially centered over the KS/OK/MO tri-state region, along a synoptic-scale trough extending from MN to the Arklatex to near BRO. The 500-mb low is expected to move northeastward through the period, reaching to near HUF by 00Z and over southern ON late tonight. Meanwhile, the trailing trough will become more neutrally to slightly positively tilted, crossing AL around 00Z and moving offshore from NC around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, a low was analyzed at 11Z near STL, with occluded front southeastward into AL, and cold front across southern AL, the western FL Panhandle, and the north-central Gulf. A warm front was drawn from south-central AL southeastward over the northeastern Gulf, then diffusely eastward over central FL and adjoining parts of the Atlantic. The warm front may shift/redevelop quickly northward today into northern FL and parts of GA, as well as reaching the Carolinas during the afternoon. The low should move erratically northeastward to southern Lake Michigan by 00Z, becoming more deeply occluded. In the meantime today, the cold front should sweep across much of the Southeast, extending from central/eastern NC south- southwestward across Atlantic waters to central FL by around 00Z. The cold front should continue to be preceded by a well-organized squall line. ...Southeast... A strong-severe squall line, with embedded bow/LEWP formations and sporadically tornadic meso/misovortices -- was evident over southeastern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Isolated supercells ahead of the line this morning, in the FL Panhandle and eventually into portions of southwestern GA -- will pose a tornado, wind and isolated severe-hail threat as well. Even for relatively short- lived tornadoes, fast translation can lengthen paths more than usual, and enhance potential damage intensity on one side to significant (EF2+) level. For more detailed near-term coverage, see SPC tornado watch 4 and associated mesoscale discussions. The main convective band should continue to produce damaging wind and occasional QLCS tornadoes as it moves eastward over the outlook area today. A relative min in forcing for discrete, warm-sector supercells, as well as in upstream boundary-layer theta-e available to the squall line, remain plausible, and account for a somewhat lower (but still well worth outlook coverage) all-hazard severe threat between the northeast Gulf Coast and Carolinas areas. Then potential is expected to ramp up again this afternoon into early evening as the activity nears the Atlantic Coast, and as warm/moist advection from a modifying Atlantic boundary layer supports increasing potential for oceanic supercells to reach the shore there. Warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range the next few hours in the FL Panhandle, and mid/late afternoon over portions of the coastal Carolinas and west-central/central FL. Otherwise, MLCAPE of 200-700 J/kg should be common over most of the outlook area just ahead of the QLCS. Vertical shear, by almost any common measure, will remain strong area-wide. 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes should be common, along with 35-50 kt vectors in the lowest km. Mass response to the progressive mid/upper cyclone and trough will continue to yield a 65-95-kt LLJ shifting east-northeastward across the preceding warm sector. This will contribute to effective SRH over 400 J/kg in the warm-frontal zone, and 200-500 J/kg in the warm sector. In addition to enlarging low-level hodographs, LLJ-associated momentum transfer from the intense winds just above the surface, in strong convective cores, may yield locally severe downdraft gusts, some perhaps reaching 65 kt. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a well- developed cyclone, initially centered over the KS/OK/MO tri-state region, along a synoptic-scale trough extending from MN to the Arklatex to near BRO. The 500-mb low is expected to move northeastward through the period, reaching to near HUF by 00Z and over southern ON late tonight. Meanwhile, the trailing trough will become more neutrally to slightly positively tilted, crossing AL around 00Z and moving offshore from NC around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, a low was analyzed at 11Z near STL, with occluded front southeastward into AL, and cold front across southern AL, the western FL Panhandle, and the north-central Gulf. A warm front was drawn from south-central AL southeastward over the northeastern Gulf, then diffusely eastward over central FL and adjoining parts of the Atlantic. The warm front may shift/redevelop quickly northward today into northern FL and parts of GA, as well as reaching the Carolinas during the afternoon. The low should move erratically northeastward to southern Lake Michigan by 00Z, becoming more deeply occluded. In the meantime today, the cold front should sweep across much of the Southeast, extending from central/eastern NC south- southwestward across Atlantic waters to central FL by around 00Z. The cold front should continue to be preceded by a well-organized squall line. ...Southeast... A strong-severe squall line, with embedded bow/LEWP formations and sporadically tornadic meso/misovortices -- was evident over southeastern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Isolated supercells ahead of the line this morning, in the FL Panhandle and eventually into portions of southwestern GA -- will pose a tornado, wind and isolated severe-hail threat as well. Even for relatively short- lived tornadoes, fast translation can lengthen paths more than usual, and enhance potential damage intensity on one side to significant (EF2+) level. For more detailed near-term coverage, see SPC tornado watch 4 and associated mesoscale discussions. The main convective band should continue to produce damaging wind and occasional QLCS tornadoes as it moves eastward over the outlook area today. A relative min in forcing for discrete, warm-sector supercells, as well as in upstream boundary-layer theta-e available to the squall line, remain plausible, and account for a somewhat lower (but still well worth outlook coverage) all-hazard severe threat between the northeast Gulf Coast and Carolinas areas. Then potential is expected to ramp up again this afternoon into early evening as the activity nears the Atlantic Coast, and as warm/moist advection from a modifying Atlantic boundary layer supports increasing potential for oceanic supercells to reach the shore there. Warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range the next few hours in the FL Panhandle, and mid/late afternoon over portions of the coastal Carolinas and west-central/central FL. Otherwise, MLCAPE of 200-700 J/kg should be common over most of the outlook area just ahead of the QLCS. Vertical shear, by almost any common measure, will remain strong area-wide. 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes should be common, along with 35-50 kt vectors in the lowest km. Mass response to the progressive mid/upper cyclone and trough will continue to yield a 65-95-kt LLJ shifting east-northeastward across the preceding warm sector. This will contribute to effective SRH over 400 J/kg in the warm-frontal zone, and 200-500 J/kg in the warm sector. In addition to enlarging low-level hodographs, LLJ-associated momentum transfer from the intense winds just above the surface, in strong convective cores, may yield locally severe downdraft gusts, some perhaps reaching 65 kt. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a well- developed cyclone, initially centered over the KS/OK/MO tri-state region, along a synoptic-scale trough extending from MN to the Arklatex to near BRO. The 500-mb low is expected to move northeastward through the period, reaching to near HUF by 00Z and over southern ON late tonight. Meanwhile, the trailing trough will become more neutrally to slightly positively tilted, crossing AL around 00Z and moving offshore from NC around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, a low was analyzed at 11Z near STL, with occluded front southeastward into AL, and cold front across southern AL, the western FL Panhandle, and the north-central Gulf. A warm front was drawn from south-central AL southeastward over the northeastern Gulf, then diffusely eastward over central FL and adjoining parts of the Atlantic. The warm front may shift/redevelop quickly northward today into northern FL and parts of GA, as well as reaching the Carolinas during the afternoon. The low should move erratically northeastward to southern Lake Michigan by 00Z, becoming more deeply occluded. In the meantime today, the cold front should sweep across much of the Southeast, extending from central/eastern NC south- southwestward across Atlantic waters to central FL by around 00Z. The cold front should continue to be preceded by a well-organized squall line. ...Southeast... A strong-severe squall line, with embedded bow/LEWP formations and sporadically tornadic meso/misovortices -- was evident over southeastern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Isolated supercells ahead of the line this morning, in the FL Panhandle and eventually into portions of southwestern GA -- will pose a tornado, wind and isolated severe-hail threat as well. Even for relatively short- lived tornadoes, fast translation can lengthen paths more than usual, and enhance potential damage intensity on one side to significant (EF2+) level. For more detailed near-term coverage, see SPC tornado watch 4 and associated mesoscale discussions. The main convective band should continue to produce damaging wind and occasional QLCS tornadoes as it moves eastward over the outlook area today. A relative min in forcing for discrete, warm-sector supercells, as well as in upstream boundary-layer theta-e available to the squall line, remain plausible, and account for a somewhat lower (but still well worth outlook coverage) all-hazard severe threat between the northeast Gulf Coast and Carolinas areas. Then potential is expected to ramp up again this afternoon into early evening as the activity nears the Atlantic Coast, and as warm/moist advection from a modifying Atlantic boundary layer supports increasing potential for oceanic supercells to reach the shore there. Warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range the next few hours in the FL Panhandle, and mid/late afternoon over portions of the coastal Carolinas and west-central/central FL. Otherwise, MLCAPE of 200-700 J/kg should be common over most of the outlook area just ahead of the QLCS. Vertical shear, by almost any common measure, will remain strong area-wide. 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes should be common, along with 35-50 kt vectors in the lowest km. Mass response to the progressive mid/upper cyclone and trough will continue to yield a 65-95-kt LLJ shifting east-northeastward across the preceding warm sector. This will contribute to effective SRH over 400 J/kg in the warm-frontal zone, and 200-500 J/kg in the warm sector. In addition to enlarging low-level hodographs, LLJ-associated momentum transfer from the intense winds just above the surface, in strong convective cores, may yield locally severe downdraft gusts, some perhaps reaching 65 kt. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a well- developed cyclone, initially centered over the KS/OK/MO tri-state region, along a synoptic-scale trough extending from MN to the Arklatex to near BRO. The 500-mb low is expected to move northeastward through the period, reaching to near HUF by 00Z and over southern ON late tonight. Meanwhile, the trailing trough will become more neutrally to slightly positively tilted, crossing AL around 00Z and moving offshore from NC around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, a low was analyzed at 11Z near STL, with occluded front southeastward into AL, and cold front across southern AL, the western FL Panhandle, and the north-central Gulf. A warm front was drawn from south-central AL southeastward over the northeastern Gulf, then diffusely eastward over central FL and adjoining parts of the Atlantic. The warm front may shift/redevelop quickly northward today into northern FL and parts of GA, as well as reaching the Carolinas during the afternoon. The low should move erratically northeastward to southern Lake Michigan by 00Z, becoming more deeply occluded. In the meantime today, the cold front should sweep across much of the Southeast, extending from central/eastern NC south- southwestward across Atlantic waters to central FL by around 00Z. The cold front should continue to be preceded by a well-organized squall line. ...Southeast... A strong-severe squall line, with embedded bow/LEWP formations and sporadically tornadic meso/misovortices -- was evident over southeastern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Isolated supercells ahead of the line this morning, in the FL Panhandle and eventually into portions of southwestern GA -- will pose a tornado, wind and isolated severe-hail threat as well. Even for relatively short- lived tornadoes, fast translation can lengthen paths more than usual, and enhance potential damage intensity on one side to significant (EF2+) level. For more detailed near-term coverage, see SPC tornado watch 4 and associated mesoscale discussions. The main convective band should continue to produce damaging wind and occasional QLCS tornadoes as it moves eastward over the outlook area today. A relative min in forcing for discrete, warm-sector supercells, as well as in upstream boundary-layer theta-e available to the squall line, remain plausible, and account for a somewhat lower (but still well worth outlook coverage) all-hazard severe threat between the northeast Gulf Coast and Carolinas areas. Then potential is expected to ramp up again this afternoon into early evening as the activity nears the Atlantic Coast, and as warm/moist advection from a modifying Atlantic boundary layer supports increasing potential for oceanic supercells to reach the shore there. Warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range the next few hours in the FL Panhandle, and mid/late afternoon over portions of the coastal Carolinas and west-central/central FL. Otherwise, MLCAPE of 200-700 J/kg should be common over most of the outlook area just ahead of the QLCS. Vertical shear, by almost any common measure, will remain strong area-wide. 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes should be common, along with 35-50 kt vectors in the lowest km. Mass response to the progressive mid/upper cyclone and trough will continue to yield a 65-95-kt LLJ shifting east-northeastward across the preceding warm sector. This will contribute to effective SRH over 400 J/kg in the warm-frontal zone, and 200-500 J/kg in the warm sector. In addition to enlarging low-level hodographs, LLJ-associated momentum transfer from the intense winds just above the surface, in strong convective cores, may yield locally severe downdraft gusts, some perhaps reaching 65 kt. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0004 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0004 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW PNS TO 10 SSE PNS TO 25 ESE GZH TO 15 NW TOI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026 ..JEWELL..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-039-041-045-061-067-069-091340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-045-059-063-091-131-133-091340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ634-635-636-655-750-752-091340- CW Read more

WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW PNS TO 10 SSE PNS TO 25 ESE GZH TO 15 NW TOI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026 ..JEWELL..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-039-041-045-061-067-069-091340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-045-059-063-091-131-133-091340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ634-635-636-655-750-752-091340- CW Read more

WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW PNS TO 10 SSE PNS TO 25 ESE GZH TO 15 NW TOI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026 ..JEWELL..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-039-041-045-061-067-069-091340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-045-059-063-091-131-133-091340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ634-635-636-655-750-752-091340- CW Read more

WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW PNS TO 10 SSE PNS TO 25 ESE GZH TO 15 NW TOI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026 ..JEWELL..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-039-041-045-061-067-069-091340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-045-059-063-091-131-133-091340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ634-635-636-655-750-752-091340- CW Read more

WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW PNS TO 10 SSE PNS TO 25 ESE GZH TO 15 NW TOI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026 ..JEWELL..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-039-041-045-061-067-069-091340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-045-059-063-091-131-133-091340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ634-635-636-655-750-752-091340- CW Read more

WW 3 TORNADO AL FL LA MS CW 090240Z - 091300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 840 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama The western Florida Panhandle Southeastern Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 840 PM until 700 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A squall line is expected to strengthen while moving eastward overnight from Louisiana/southern Mississippi to southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle closer to sunrise. The storm environment will be favorable for rotating storms within and just ahead of the line, with the potential for a couple of strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes, damaging gusts up to 75 mph and isolated large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles northwest of Houma LA to 40 miles northeast of Panama City FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 2. Watch number 2 will not be in effect after 840 PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 1... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24050. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E BVE TO 60 S MOB TO 35 SSE MOB TO 30 ENE MOB TO 25 WNW GZH TO 10 SSE SEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025 ..JEWELL..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-099-091140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MONROE FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-091140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ631-633-634-635-636-650-655-750-752-091140- Read more

WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E BVE TO 60 S MOB TO 35 SSE MOB TO 30 ENE MOB TO 25 WNW GZH TO 10 SSE SEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025 ..JEWELL..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-099-091140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MONROE FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-091140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ631-633-634-635-636-650-655-750-752-091140- Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) continues to indicate that rapid, strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous short wave impulse pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. As the center of the growing cyclone tracks from Arkansas into and through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Friday, lowest surface pressures may fall as much as 15-20 mb in 12 hours. Latest guidance is more suggestive that the stronger mid/level cooling might tend to shift north of the moistening warm sector overspreading the central into eastern Gulf Coast states by midday. While warm mid/upper layers could potentially be mitigating to destabilization and severe weather potential during the afternoon through evening across Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas, this may be compensated for by a continued increase in low-level moisture. Increased inhibition and weaker mid/upper support might actually be more conducive to discrete supercell development in the presence of intense wind fields (including 50-80+ kts in the 850-700 mb layer) and low-level shear. And models suggest that a dryline structure might develop ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone as it progresses eastward. Due to lingering uncertainties severe weather probabilities are being maintained at 15 percent across the eastern Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, it is still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period. Conditionally the environment appears potentially conducive to strong tornadoes and high convective wind gusts. Following diminishing convective potential over the coming weekend, model output remains quite varied concerning the possibility for another developing surface cyclone across the Gulf of Mexico through Atlantic Seaboard vicinity early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) continues to indicate that rapid, strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous short wave impulse pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. As the center of the growing cyclone tracks from Arkansas into and through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Friday, lowest surface pressures may fall as much as 15-20 mb in 12 hours. Latest guidance is more suggestive that the stronger mid/level cooling might tend to shift north of the moistening warm sector overspreading the central into eastern Gulf Coast states by midday. While warm mid/upper layers could potentially be mitigating to destabilization and severe weather potential during the afternoon through evening across Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas, this may be compensated for by a continued increase in low-level moisture. Increased inhibition and weaker mid/upper support might actually be more conducive to discrete supercell development in the presence of intense wind fields (including 50-80+ kts in the 850-700 mb layer) and low-level shear. And models suggest that a dryline structure might develop ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone as it progresses eastward. Due to lingering uncertainties severe weather probabilities are being maintained at 15 percent across the eastern Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, it is still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period. Conditionally the environment appears potentially conducive to strong tornadoes and high convective wind gusts. Following diminishing convective potential over the coming weekend, model output remains quite varied concerning the possibility for another developing surface cyclone across the Gulf of Mexico through Atlantic Seaboard vicinity early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) continues to indicate that rapid, strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous short wave impulse pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. As the center of the growing cyclone tracks from Arkansas into and through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Friday, lowest surface pressures may fall as much as 15-20 mb in 12 hours. Latest guidance is more suggestive that the stronger mid/level cooling might tend to shift north of the moistening warm sector overspreading the central into eastern Gulf Coast states by midday. While warm mid/upper layers could potentially be mitigating to destabilization and severe weather potential during the afternoon through evening across Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas, this may be compensated for by a continued increase in low-level moisture. Increased inhibition and weaker mid/upper support might actually be more conducive to discrete supercell development in the presence of intense wind fields (including 50-80+ kts in the 850-700 mb layer) and low-level shear. And models suggest that a dryline structure might develop ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone as it progresses eastward. Due to lingering uncertainties severe weather probabilities are being maintained at 15 percent across the eastern Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, it is still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period. Conditionally the environment appears potentially conducive to strong tornadoes and high convective wind gusts. Following diminishing convective potential over the coming weekend, model output remains quite varied concerning the possibility for another developing surface cyclone across the Gulf of Mexico through Atlantic Seaboard vicinity early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) continues to indicate that rapid, strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous short wave impulse pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. As the center of the growing cyclone tracks from Arkansas into and through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Friday, lowest surface pressures may fall as much as 15-20 mb in 12 hours. Latest guidance is more suggestive that the stronger mid/level cooling might tend to shift north of the moistening warm sector overspreading the central into eastern Gulf Coast states by midday. While warm mid/upper layers could potentially be mitigating to destabilization and severe weather potential during the afternoon through evening across Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas, this may be compensated for by a continued increase in low-level moisture. Increased inhibition and weaker mid/upper support might actually be more conducive to discrete supercell development in the presence of intense wind fields (including 50-80+ kts in the 850-700 mb layer) and low-level shear. And models suggest that a dryline structure might develop ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone as it progresses eastward. Due to lingering uncertainties severe weather probabilities are being maintained at 15 percent across the eastern Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, it is still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period. Conditionally the environment appears potentially conducive to strong tornadoes and high convective wind gusts. Following diminishing convective potential over the coming weekend, model output remains quite varied concerning the possibility for another developing surface cyclone across the Gulf of Mexico through Atlantic Seaboard vicinity early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) continues to indicate that rapid, strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous short wave impulse pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. As the center of the growing cyclone tracks from Arkansas into and through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Friday, lowest surface pressures may fall as much as 15-20 mb in 12 hours. Latest guidance is more suggestive that the stronger mid/level cooling might tend to shift north of the moistening warm sector overspreading the central into eastern Gulf Coast states by midday. While warm mid/upper layers could potentially be mitigating to destabilization and severe weather potential during the afternoon through evening across Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas, this may be compensated for by a continued increase in low-level moisture. Increased inhibition and weaker mid/upper support might actually be more conducive to discrete supercell development in the presence of intense wind fields (including 50-80+ kts in the 850-700 mb layer) and low-level shear. And models suggest that a dryline structure might develop ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone as it progresses eastward. Due to lingering uncertainties severe weather probabilities are being maintained at 15 percent across the eastern Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, it is still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period. Conditionally the environment appears potentially conducive to strong tornadoes and high convective wind gusts. Following diminishing convective potential over the coming weekend, model output remains quite varied concerning the possibility for another developing surface cyclone across the Gulf of Mexico through Atlantic Seaboard vicinity early next week. Read more