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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build over the southern Rockies during the day with a cutoff low west of California. Some weak flow aloft may be mixed down to the surface during the afternoon over portions of the Great Basin. However, overall surface flow is expected to remain weak, and even in the presence of low RH, any Elevated fire conditions should be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 699 WTNT33 KNHC 060552 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 ...CHANTAL A LITTLE STRONGER AND CLOSE TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE AS RAINBANDS MOVES ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 78.8W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 78.8 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected overnight, followed by a turn to the northeast by the end of today. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina in the next few hours. Recent aircraft and land-based radar velocity data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening forecast after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. Within the past hour, Springmaid Pier in South Carolina reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) gusting to 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force dropsonde data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning and should persist through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area overnight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...CHANTAL A LITTLE STRONGER AND CLOSE TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE AS RAINBANDS MOVES ONSHORE... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 the center of Chantal was located near 33.2, -78.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

479
ABNT20 KNHC 060526
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located off the coast of the southeastern United
States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060525
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Some slow development is still possible during the next
day or two, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before
the system moves west-northwestward over progressively cooler water
by Monday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 02:50:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 03:22:23 GMT

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW RAP TO 45 NW PHP TO 55 WSW MBG. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-055-071-081-093-102-103-137-060540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW RAP TO 45 NW PHP TO 55 WSW MBG. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-055-071-081-093-102-103-137-060540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW RAP TO 45 NW PHP TO 55 WSW MBG. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-055-071-081-093-102-103-137-060540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 488 SEVERE TSTM SD 052240Z - 060700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 488 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 440 PM until 100 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A small but intense thunderstorm cluster will spread east-southeastward across western South Dakota this evening into the early overnight hours. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with the cluster. Peak gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Occasional severe hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles south southwest of Buffalo SD to 10 miles east northeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 487... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW RAP TO 50 N RAP TO 35 WSW Y22. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-055-071-081-093-102-103-105-137-060440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 02:50:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 03:22:23 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 02:50:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 02:50:43 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 02:50:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 02:50:43 GMT

MD 1572 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...488... FOR BLACK HILLS REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Black Hills region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487...488... Valid 060056Z - 060300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487, 488 continues. SUMMARY...Small MCS/supercell will track southeast across the Black Hills region over the next few hours. Hail and wind remain the primary risks. DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercell/MCS is tracking across southeast MT into northeast WY early this evening. This small complex will continue propagating southeast across the Black Hills, along/north of a synoptic boundary that is draped along the southern/western portions of the higher terrain. Latest diagnostic data suggests a narrow corridor of instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) extends across the Black Hills, and 00z sounding from UNR supports this with 40kt 0-6km bulk shear. Environmental conditions remain favorable for supercells, but some form of a hybrid supercell/MCS complex is expected to track southeast into the northern portions of the Black Hills by 02z. ..Darrow.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 45530441 44760241 43880196 43520308 44790535 45530441 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW RAP TO 40 S 2WX TO 25 NNE 2WX. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-102-103-105-137-060340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060249 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Strong convection continues to persist in the northeastern quadrant of Chantal, with the center located on the southwestern edge of the burst. This convection has been causing a gradual increase in organization of the storm, with an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently reporting 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt, which equate to about 45 kt at the surface. This data is also close to derived velocity radar data from Wilmington, showing peak 8000 ft winds of about 55 kt, and TAFB's latest satellite classification of 45 kt. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in agreement with these values. The current motion estimate is 350/7, and Chantal could turn to the north-northwest before landfall due to a narrow mid-level ridge. A turn to the northeast is expected later on Sunday as Chantal becomes more embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of the ridge. There is little time left for any intensification, and Chantal should make landfall within the next 6 hours at about the present intensity (45-50 kt). Steady weakening will occur after landfall with the loss of the warm water heat source, and Chantal is expected to dissipate over eastern North Carolina by early Monday. The track forecast was nudged to the east, with little change to the intensity forecast. Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds and rainfall to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning soon and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina will cause flash flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 32.7N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0000Z 34.8N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 000 FONT13 KNHC 060248 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RALEIGH NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 6 10(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 10 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) WILMINGTON NC 34 14 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BALD HEAD ISL 34 31 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FLORENCE SC 34 13 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 34 53 4(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) MYRTLE BEACH 34 60 3(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GEORGETOWN SC 34 56 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CHARLESTON SC 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060248 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM CHANTAL SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 78.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 78.8 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin overnight, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Radar and aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening forecast after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force dropsonde data is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning soon and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this evening and overnight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake